Whipsaw Fridaymarket is gearing up for a larger move down in my opinion, but one more whipsaw to finish looks likely today. I expect a move down and then a strong rally to finish the final wave 5.
USA500 trade ideas
The Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy EconThe Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy Economy
For decades, the American economy has been celebrated as the epicenter of innovation, wealth creation, and corporate success. But beneath the surface, an unsettling reality has emerged: The U.S. financial markets are increasingly driven by speculation, hype, and a distorted sense of value.
"Buy Now, Pay Later"—A Culture of Delusion
One of the most glaring symptoms of this detachment from reality is the widespread adoption of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services. A staggering number of American consumers have embraced debt-financed spending as a normal part of life. Credit cards are no longer the primary vehicle for financial mismanagement—BNPL systems have convinced people they can afford luxuries they fundamentally cannot.
This mentality, in turn, feeds into the stock market’s obsession with future promises over actual output. Investors have become infatuated with narratives rather than numbers, driving valuations to unrealistic highs for companies that either underdeliver or simply do nothing at all.
The MicroStrategy Paradox: Borrowing Money to Buy Bitcoin
Take MicroStrategy, for example—a company whose sole business model seems to be leveraging borrowed capital to buy Bitcoin. By traditional metrics, MicroStrategy offers no tangible product, no innovative service, no groundbreaking technology—just speculative accumulation. Yet, thanks to Bitcoin hype, its stock price is valued as if it’s a revolutionary player in the corporate world.
This irrational valuation mirrors the broader issue with American markets: Companies are being rewarded not for what they actually do, but for the financial games they play.
The Myth of Overvalued Titans: Tesla & Meta
Tesla and Meta serve as the poster children of speculative overvaluation.
- Tesla: Once hailed as an automotive disruptor, Tesla’s stock price often reflects what Elon Musk promises rather than what Tesla delivers. From self-driving software that never fully materialized to mass production goals that fell flat, Tesla’s ability to sustain its valuation relies more on Musk’s cult-like following than automotive success. Meanwhile, the gutting of regulatory oversight has allowed Tesla to push unfinished, potentially hazardous products into the market.
- Meta: Meta’s valuation has ballooned largely on the promise of virtual reality dominance. Yet, billions poured into the Metaverse have yielded little beyond overpriced VR headsets and gimmicky social spaces.
Elon Musk: The Master of Market Manipulation
Elon Musk’s influence on financial markets cannot be overstated. Through cryptic tweets, grand promises, and regulatory maneuvering, Musk has become a force powerful enough to shift markets with mere words. Whether it’s pumping Dogecoin, slashing Tesla’s safety oversight, or influencing government policy for personal gain, Musk operates in a reality where market value is dictated by his persona rather than corporate fundamentals.
The Rise of True Value Markets
While the U.S. economy indulges in financial fantasy, other global markets have started to present compelling opportunities:
- Europe: A more realistic, fundamentals-based approach to valuation is emerging. Traditional industries remain resilient, and companies must show actual profitability to attract investment.
- China: Despite regulatory challenges, China’s focus on industrial production, technological advancement, and infrastructure development gives its economy a sense of tangible progress.
- UK & Australia: Unlike the speculative U.S. markets, these economies remain grounded in earnings, productivity, and rational valuations.
Conclusion
The American financial landscape has become a speculative playground detached from reality. Companies are valued not for what they produce, but for what they promise, what they borrow, and what narratives they spin. Figures like Musk exploit market sentiment, while deregulation enables corporations to operate recklessly. As Europe, China, the UK, and Australia foster economies built on real value, the U.S. is at risk of crashing under the weight of its illusions.
SP:SPX TVC:DXY INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:BLK NASDAQ:META XETR:DAX FTSE:UKX TVC:HSI SET:SQ NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:AFRM NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:HOOD
Reversal at the Stop ZoneAccording to balance rules, 5585 (the bottom of balance) should be the target. IF we get there, and break that low, the target will then open up to 5400 more or less. I talk about some bigger possibilities while looking at the futures chart
The High of BalanceWe are at the high of the balance area after they ended the day yesterday inside the white channel. My feeling is they will try to take out stops around 5720-5730 and reverse.
S&P INTRADAY uptrend continuationMarket and Geopolitical Update
US–UK Trade Deal: Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, calling it the first of his promised deals. Details will be released by the White House.
Chipmakers Rise: The US plans to roll back some Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, boosting chip stocks. New rules are in development to better control foreign chip use.
Markets Rally: US stock futures climbed, Bitcoin neared $100,000, and the dollar strengthened slightly after the Fed signaled no rush to cut rates.
Corporate Struggles: Despite market optimism, companies continue to feel tariff pressure. Toyota expects a $1.3 billion hit, while Maersk downgraded its transport outlook.
India–Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan reported shooting down 12 Indian drones, escalating long-standing tensions. India’s Nifty 50 dropped 0.4%, and Pakistan’s KSE-30 fell 7%.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5730
Resistance Level 2: 5780
Resistance Level 3: 5874
Support Level 1: 5580
Support Level 2: 5510
Support Level 3: 5440
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings.
After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation.
With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night.
Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours.
OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400.
On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope.
Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.
SNP500/EquitiesThe current macroeconomic backdrop, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, highlights growing concerns over economic risks, particularly stemming from trade tensions and inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. Despite a strong April jobs report, the Fed is signaling increased caution, warning that the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment have risen. Treasury yields are reflecting this shift in sentiment, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.29%, suggesting that markets are beginning to price in a slower growth environment and potential future rate cuts.
In this environment, real estate investments are proving resilient. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) is up +3.14% year-to-date, outperforming broader equity indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX), down –4.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), down –6.19%. Real estate typically benefits from a stable or declining interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the discount rate applied to property cash flows and enhance the appeal of steady income-generating assets like REITs. Additionally, real estate assets—especially in sectors like multi-family housing and industrial logistics—can provide some inflation protection through lease repricing and consistent demand.
By contrast, the broader equity markets are showing signs of strain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have delivered negative returns year-to-date, reflecting investor unease around earnings growth, margin pressures from tariffs, and general macroeconomic uncertainty. Defensive equity sectors are faring better—Financials (XLF) are up +2.75%, and Consumer Staples and Health Care are showing modest gains. Technology and cyclical sectors such as Materials (XLB –0.39%) and Energy (XLE –0.30%) are underperforming, indicating a rotation into safer assets. The VIX (Volatility Index) at 24.72 confirms heightened risk aversion among investors.
Given this backdrop, a prudent portfolio strategy for the next three to six months would prioritize capital preservation, income generation, and inflation protection. A recommended tactical allocation might include 30–35% in real estate, leveraging XLRE and potentially private REITs in stable segments. Allocating 25–30% to defensive equity sectors, such as financials and consumer staples, can provide exposure to more stable earnings. Exposure to high-beta sectors like technology should be limited to 10–15%, given continued volatility and valuation risks. Holding 20–25% in cash or short-term Treasuries provides flexibility, especially with yields still elevated, while a 5–10% allocation to alternatives such as gold (XAUUSD +28.90% YTD) or inflation-protected securities like TIPs adds a useful macro hedge.
Looking forward, real estate is likely to remain attractive if the Fed maintains a dovish tilt or initiates rate cuts later in the year. Sectors with strong fundamentals, such as housing and logistics, should continue to perform well. Equities, however, are expected to remain volatile, with upside capped unless trade uncertainty is resolved or corporate earnings show resilience. Investors should favor value-oriented, dividend-paying stocks with lower volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar may soften gradually as rate expectations fall and inflation hedges rise in importance, further supporting real asset classes.
Moment of Truth for the S&P and Overall MarketsSeeing quite a significant Head and Shoulders pattern form now.
We've had a strong rally back up after the plunge.
Now we are testing the 50d SMA.
If we can't hold above this, things could get really bad.
If this Head and Shoulders sees follow through to the downside, we could be seeing a very significant bear market over the next year or so.
Critical point here!!!
7100 pips by September 2025We are going to see a massive rally during Spring and Summer 2025 in Sp500. A magnificient blow off top where people will talk around the world about how good is going to be our economy.
I don´t want to talk about what is coming next.
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500/SPX500" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Pink MA Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 1D timeframe (5500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 4750 (or) Escape Before the Target
💰💵💸"US500/SPX500" Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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SPX is cooking a strong buyBuyers are strongly in control and now the price is giving a nice discount. Good for sweet risk to reward. Invest wisely...
S&P500 Short Update: Break of TrendlineThis is an update to my short idea 2 days ago. I believed that the reversal for S&P500 has already begun and that I expect a move down from the breaking of the lower trendline.
Apologies for the audio as I am testing out a new setup (with a new portable microphone).
SPX Continues to Rise After FOMC DecisionThe U.S. index has been gaining more than 2% in recent trading sessions, and the bullish bias has remained intact since the Federal Reserve’s decision during yesterday’s session. The central bank once again opted to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, according to some comments, Chairman Powell mentioned that the economy is approaching a point where it may soon be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates. This has fueled expectations of future rate cuts and has helped sustain confidence in equity indices over the short term.
Uptrend: Since April 9, a new short-term uptrend has been consistently forming, with price movements holding above the 5,000-point mark. However, the price is now approaching a key resistance level, and as long as this barrier holds, it could lead to short-term neutrality in recent price action.
ADX: The ADX line has been falling sharply in recent sessions and is now nearing the neutral 20 level. This indicates a lack of sustained volatility in recent price moves. If the ADX remains at these levels, it could reinforce a period of consolidation or range-bound movement in the short term.
RSI: The RSI line remains consistently above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buying momentum still dominates in the short term. However, as the RSI approaches the overbought level near 70, this could open the door for short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels:
5,750 points – Nearby resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and support a more sustained uptrend.
5,540 points – Nearby support: This level aligns with the 50-period moving average and may serve as a potential zone for bearish corrections to unfold.
5,370 points – Critical support: This level aligns with the short-term ascending trendline. A drop below this support could jeopardize the current bullish structure in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Stops Zone hitWe are in the stop zone after a fake breakdown. RSI showing bearish divergences on all mid time frames, so I think it will reverse from this level. I'm wrong over 5750
Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 6,520.93
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,434.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,791.21
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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SPX DailyThere is still a correction left if you think from Elliot wave perspective. The correction might be until FVG2....
SPX 500SPX500 Index
- Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
- Break of Structure
- Fibonacci Level - 161.8%
- Bullish Channel in Short and Long Time Frame
- CHOCH
SPX 1st rejection1st rejection of last week's close. I say mark the zone and be cautious. Key levels will be targets (daily hi & lo minimum). If your hit targets, take profit. when aiming above, take the trade from a support level or specific candle shift.
Again... FOMC Wed 5/7. Will update my thoughts daily this week.
STOCKS | MARKET WATCH | Why Long-Term Investing Still Wins🤯 The start of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster for stocks.
Global markets got seriously rattled in the first few months by some sudden jitters. When President Trump announced those aggressive tariffs, it caused significant concern among investors, sending stock markets tumbling and prompting a flight to safety. Like Reuters said, April was "epic" for crazy market swings – the VIX fear index shot up to levels we hadn't seen since 2020 and 2008, and then just as quickly dropped back down. Markets went wild.
But then, by late April, the panic kind of ... disappeared. Once President Trump paused the implementation of the most severe tariffs, stocks bounced back pretty sharply. The S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost. After that nasty drop, it ended April only about 5% lower than it started the year. The Nasdaq, with all its tech stocks, pretty much ended the month where it began. So, after all that drama, major US stock markets weren't far from their all-time highs, showing how fast that "fear" can vanish.
📊 How key indexes did
S&P 500 (USA): 📉 Dipped in early April but bounced back late. Ended April around -5% for the year, after almost hitting a bear market.
Nasdaq Composite (USA): 📉 Similar story. Tanked on the tariff scare, then rallied when things calmed down, ending April pretty much flat for the year.
MSCI World (Global developed markets): 🤷♂️ Had its ups and downs along with the US markets. By the end of April, it was pretty much flat for the year – no big moves for the overall world index.
MSCI Emerging Markets: 📉 Didn't do as well as developed markets. Asian stocks, especially, took a hit early April because of trade war worries, so this index lagged, even though it recovered a bit by the end of the month.
FTSE/JSE All-Share (South Africa): 🇿🇦 The odd one out! The JSE jumped about +5% in the first three months of 2025, mainly thanks to mining stocks. It even hit a record high in March. The April craziness shook it up too, but because it did so well earlier, it was still slightly up for the year by late April.
Takeaway? Global stocks were jumpy, but they mostly recovered. By late April, most major indexes were close to where they started the year. South Africa's market was the exception, having a good first quarter that helped it weather the April storm.
⏳ Staying invested beats trying to be a stock Wizard
All this back and forth can make investors nervous. You start thinking, "Should I just sell now before it drops even more?" But history usually says that's the wrong move. Just sticking with it usually works out better than trying to guess the market's next move. BlackRock's iShares recently pointed out that "waiting for the 'right time' to invest might mean missing out on the best days," while staying invested lets you benefit from that "compounding" thing and get through the short-term bumps. Simply put, if you sit on the sidelines during big swings, you often miss the big rebound days. One study even showed that if you missed just the five best market days over 20 years, you'd end up with way less money than someone who just stayed in the market.
The legendary investor Charlie Munger put it simply: "The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." Trying to jump in and out of the market around all the volatility is super tough – the biggest up days often follow right after the biggest down days. On the other hand, patient investors who just ride out the noise tend to grab more of those long-term gains. After all, with compounding, those small gains build on each other over time.
💰 The awesome power of compounding over time
Compounding basically means the sooner you invest and the longer you stay invested, the more your returns build on each other like a snowball rolling downhill. For example, the total return JSE All-Share index was up almost 23% over the last year. That kind of gain shows how just staying invested during good times can really grow your wealth. If you'd panicked and pulled out, you would have missed most of that growth. Over longer periods, like 5 to 10 years, the JSE has almost always gone up. The big lesson is that it's about "time in the market," not trying to "time the market," that really makes your returns grow and smooths out those bumps along the way.
🌍 What's driving the markets and the economy
There were a few big things happening that explain why the markets moved the way they did.
🇺🇸 US GDP Slowdown: The US economy actually shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. A lot of people blamed this on a big surge in imports as businesses bought stuff ahead of those potential President Trump tariffs. Even though this news spooked the stock market briefly in late April, underlying consumer spending was still looking pretty decent.
📈 US Company Profits: On the bright side, US companies reported some pretty strong profits. Analysts were expecting good growth in earnings for the S&P 500 in the first quarter, even with the economic slowdown. And it turned out even better – a lot of companies beat expectations, and overall earnings were up quite a bit from last year. This helped keep stock prices from falling too much during the pullbacks.
🇪🇺 European Spending Boost: In Europe, governments are starting to spend more. Germany, for example, proposed a huge fund for infrastructure and energy. The EU is also loosening its spending rules and increasing defense budgets. Some experts think this could actually boost Europe's economic growth a bit each year, which would mean better profits for European companies. Some even think European companies might see faster profit growth than US companies in the next few years because of this spending.
🇨🇳 Asia and Trade Wars: Asia was the weak spot. China's economy showed some signs of trouble, with a survey suggesting its manufacturing activity might have shrunk in April after a couple of months of growth. This seemed to be a direct result of the US tariffs. Asian stock markets took a hit on the tariff news, which dragged down the overall emerging markets index. Basically, tariffs and trade tensions hurt growth in Asia and its markets, which then affected returns in emerging markets globally.
✅ The bottom line
Early 2025 reminded us that markets can freak out quickly – but they can often bounce back just as fast. The swings felt scary, but history tells us that just sticking with your investments usually pays off. Major stock markets are pretty much where they were a few months ago, while economies and company earnings are still moving forward. For long-term investors, that wild week in April just reinforced an old lesson: stay invested and let compounding do its thing. As some experts say, "get invested and stay invested" because the most volatile times often have the biggest market gains. By sticking to your plan, you avoid missing those big up days when the "fear" fades and markets recover.
_________________________
SP:SPX
Sources: Recent market reports and data including the April SATRIX 2025 market newsletter “Once Again, Volatility Blinked and Fear Lost., nasdaq.com, reuters.com, ishares.com, insight.factset.com, reuters.com, iol.co.za
Bulls game over now Long closed.. Short from 5700 1St Tp 5432..2nd Tp 5330..3rd Tp 5103.. Good luck and safe trade
When the SPX/Silver ratio breaks down, Silver goes on a bull runThis is due to money moving out of the stock market, with investors taking profits and looking towards making money in undervalued assets. Silver is incredibly undervalued when compared to stocks and even gold.
SHORT ON SPYNice Double Top at a Major supply zone on spy.
I will be selling spy to the next demand zone for almost 900 points. (INSANE)
