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USA500 trade ideas

China Money FlowIn the context of technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels serve as pivotal tools for identifying potential support and resistance zones within a given price trajectory. By applying the Fibonacci sequence to key swing highs and lows, traders can derive a series of horizontal levels that may act as psychological barriers or areas of confluence for price action. These levels, often expressed as ratios such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%, are believed to reflect natural harmonic patterns inherent in market behavior. When analyzing a chart, the initial step involves identifying a significant price movement, either upward or downward, which serves as the basis for plotting the Fibonacci grid. The retracement levels are then superimposed onto the chart, providing a framework for assessing potential pullback areas where price may consolidate or reverse. Concurrently, Fibonacci extension levels can be employed to project potential price targets beyond the initial swing, offering insights into where the trend might resume or exhaust. The interplay between Fibonacci levels and other technical indicators, such as moving averages, volume profiles, or oscillators, can further enhance the robustness of the analysis. For instance, a confluence between a Fibonacci retracement level and a key moving average may strengthen the case for a potential reversal or continuation. Similarly, divergence signals from momentum indicators near Fibonacci levels can provide additional confirmation or cautionary signals. It is important to note that Fibonacci levels are not infallible and should be interpreted within the broader context of market conditions, including trend direction, volatility, and macroeconomic factors. Traders often employ a discretionary approach, combining Fibonacci analysis with price action patterns, candlestick formations, and other qualitative factors to refine their decision-making process. Furthermore, the subjective nature of selecting swing points for Fibonacci calculations underscores the need for consistency and adaptability in application. In summary, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels offer a structured yet flexible framework for chart trading, enabling traders to identify potential areas of interest and manage risk-reward dynamics. While their efficacy is contingent upon proper application and contextual interpretation, their widespread adoption across various asset classes and timeframes attests to their enduring relevance in technical analysis. Let's check what happens here
SP:SPXShort
by bitcoin
SPX Price Action Analysis | Swing & Scalping OpportunitiesSPX is currently at a key support zone, showing signs of bullish rejection. A potential long opportunity exists if a strong bullish candle forms, confirming the rejection. Trade Plan: 📌 Entry: Around the highlighted support zone, once a bullish confirmation appears. 📌 Stop-Loss (SL): Below the rejection candle to minimize risk. 📌 Targets: Scalping Target: Small resistance area (~5,815) Medium Target: Next key resistance (~5,880) Swing Target: Major resistance (~6,000) If the price fails to hold the support and breaks below, we might reconsider the bullish bias. Keeping an eye on market sentiment and fundamentals is crucial. Let me know if you need any modifications! 🚀📈
SP:SPXLong
by ayushpanchal92
SPX - Continuing the downward trendGiven the flow of bearish orders on the daily and lower timeframes, the SPX is still in a bearish trend. Of course, if the weekly candle closes below 5771.3, the structure on this timeframe will also become bearish. So in this situation, opening short positions is better than long positions. Note that any upward movement can only be a small daily correction. We will probably see another BoS on the 15-minute timeframe today and the price could reach another support level. Everything is clear on the chart Watch, enjoy, be profitable
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by alixjey
more fall Pattern Identified: On the chart provided (originally a 5-minute chart), a descending triangle is observed between points (A), (B), (C), (D), and (E). If we group the movements on a 15-minute timeframe, the pattern would still be relevant, but with less noise and more consolidated candles. Point A: Initial high around 5567.3, marking the start of the downtrend. Point B: Initial support of the triangle, near 5520.1. Point C: Descending resistance of the triangle, showing a price compression. Point D: Lower support of the triangle, also near 5520.1. Point E: A bearish breakout below D is confirmed, with the price falling toward 5500. Analysis: On a 15-minute timeframe, the descending triangle would indicate consolidation after an initial downtrend. A breakout below D (5520) confirms the bearish continuation. Volume (not visible on the chart, but a factor to consider) likely increased during the breakout, validating the move. The price appears to be heading toward more significant support around 5500, which has already been tested. Projection: Bearish Target: If the price continues to decline, the next key level could be between 5480 and 5470, depending on historical support or the projected height of the triangle. Bullish Reversal: If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks above the triangle resistance (around 5540), we could see a further move toward 5567. Strategy: Short: Entry after the breakout at D (5520), with a stop loss adjusted above the triangle resistance (5540) and an initial profit-taking at 5480. Buy (Alternate Scenario): If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks higher, enter above 5540, with a stop loss below 5520 and a profit-taking at 5567. Risk Management: Take a 1-2% risk per trade and monitor macroeconomic events that may affect the S&P 500. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on a simulated 15-minute timeframe. Be sure to confirm this with a real 15-minute chart and apply appropriate risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by JAG_Trader
Is 5,400 Points the Bottom for the S&P 500? Key Levels You Need The S&P 500 Index has been experiencing a sharp downturn, heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies. This has had a ripple effect across risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, which has been closely correlated with traditional markets. In this update, we analyze whether 5400 points could serve as a key bottoming level for the S&P 500 and what that means for broader market conditions. Technical Points to Consider: 5400 as a Key Support Zone – The index is approaching a major technical confluence zone, which includes a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a VWAP SR level from the October 2023 lows, and an open swing low. These factors suggest an oversold bounce may be imminent. Market Structure Breakdown – The S&P 500 has shifted from higher highs and higher lows to now potentially forming a lower low. A relief rally could lead to a lower high before continuation downward. Impact on Crypto Markets – If a short-term bottom forms in equities, we could see a correlated bounce in the cryptocurrency market, offering long trade opportunities in altcoins. The extreme oversold conditions in the market suggest that a relief bounce is highly probable. Markets often react to key technical levels, and the presence of multiple confluence factors at 5400 makes it a critical zone to watch. While a temporary bounce is expected, it is essential to consider whether this move will lead to a sustained recovery or merely a short-lived retracement before further downside. The structure of the bounce, volume inflows, and broader market sentiment will be key factors in determining the next trend. For cryptocurrency traders, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin means that any shift in equities could impact crypto price action. If the S&P 500 finds support and initiates a bounce, risk-on assets like altcoins may also experience relief rallies. However, these moves must be evaluated carefully—altcoins are often more volatile than equities, and chasing a bounce without confirmation could lead to unnecessary risk exposure. Identifying the right setups in this environment requires patience and a strategic approach. Ultimately, market timing and discipline will be crucial in navigating this potential bottoming process. If 5400 holds as support and a bullish structure begins forming, traders may find strong long opportunities in both traditional markets and crypto. However, if price fails to hold, a continuation lower could present an entirely new set of trading conditions. Waiting for market alignment, confirmed reversals, and volume support will be key before taking decisive action.
SP:SPX
by AzizKhanZamani
S&P 500 at a crossroads: breakout or fake move?The S&P 500 is stuck in a two day old descending triangle pattern making it a tricky setup after an aggressive sell off. A clean break below could lead to a drop towards 5549 with a further 1.6 percent decline. However there’s also the chance of a false breakdown followed by a rebound which could turn this into a fake move. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
S&P 500 Index, Gold, and BitcoinToday, I’m analyzing the weekly charts of the S&P 500 Index, Gold, and Bitcoin. Notice anything interesting? 🤔 Since late 2022, these assets have been moving in sync, showing an unusually strong correlation. At times, it almost feels like they’re behaving as a single market. But spotting these connections provides valuable insights we can use to our advantage. One chart that stands out is the S&P 500 Index, particularly its rebound from the dual Fibonacci support zone around $5520. This is a critical level, and as long as it holds, both Bitcoin and Gold are likely to maintain their upward momentum. For now, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, and this trend could continue throughout the year. 🚀
SP:SPXLong
by CryptoPAMM
Pre-dump Stop Hunt Seems Likely HereMy previous forecast into the high of the rally was for a capitulation from the high, no major retracement in the drop and then once we broke the low - slam to 5500. This trade went well in the first stages. Top where it was expected. Sell off in the style expected. New low as expected - but there has yet to be a big follow through. This failed follow through (even although we are still sitting at the lows right now) makes me worry about the different trap variants of the break I expect. Here's the setup I am looking at. It's a bullish butterfly-like pattern off the high. I say butterfly-like because it doesn't perfectly fit the rules. C is a new high, for one. But I find this general M type of shape is useful for spotting lows or breaks. I tend to bracket all these things under a "butterfly". I know it's a misterm as per the books, but it serves the purpose I am using it for. Three main things can happen off a butterfly decision. One is the 1.61 breaks and we slam to 2.20. This was the OG forecast of 5500. This is the rarer of the outcomes but it happens so fast there's not time to deal with it - which is why I planned and positioned for this into the rally high. Second thing that can happen it a low. Butterfly can work. All can be well with the world. For a few reasons I don't think that's happening but it's a risk to be aware of. This could be a low. Finally, we have the dead cat and break pattern - the one that is the primary plan for now if we make the bounce. Here's an example of one of those. Notice how this trades under the support and then puts in a series of small spike out candles - then it makes the bull trap. Stalls a while and then the next break is the actionable one. Look at this little zone - we game this zone on both sides before the move. These look similar. If the break does not come now I think we'll see a bull trap atypical to the previous ones in that is moderately breaks the lower highs we've seen in all the previous rallies. Giving bears good reason to puke their positions and bulls good reason to think the low is in. Barcode there for a while and then setup the bigger trade. Ideally here I'd like to make a little money in the rally. Use this to bankroll my speculative OTM puts. Breaks lower are liable to cause an instant pivot to the plan for the run away break - but this bull trap move would be far more befitting of a pre-crash move I think. It really does feel a little too easy right now. Would be so many fewer bears if we made that little spike and stuck stubbornly at the high of it for a while. I've been hitting every rally in SPX since 6150. Done a lot of offloading of my positions yesterday and anything I am holding I have hedged with 580 calls. We may be very close, within months, of a real break - but we might have a big distraction rally to come first. No one has called me names for being a bear of late ... concerning. A good bounce would fix that.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
2
S&P500 Index Goes 'DRILL BABY DRILL' Mode due to Tariffs BazookaThe Trump administration's aggressive use of tariffs — we termed at @PandorraResearch Team a "Tariff' Bazooka" approach due to their broad, unilateral application — has exerted significant downward pressure on the S&P 500 index through multiple channels. These include direct impacts on corporate profitability, heightened trade war risks, increased economic uncertainty, and deteriorating market sentiment. Direct Impact on Corporate Earnings Tariffs raise costs for U.S. firms reliant on imported inputs, forcing them to either absorb reduced profit margins or pass costs to consumers. For example, intermediate goods like steel and aluminum—key inputs for manufacturing—face steep tariffs, squeezing industries from automakers to construction. Goldman Sachs estimates every 5-percentage-point increase in U.S. tariffs reduces S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by 1–2%. The 2025 tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China could lower EPS forecasts by 2–3%, directly eroding equity valuations6. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners (e.g., EU levies on bourbon and motorcycles) compound losses by shrinking export markets. Trade Escalation and Retaliation The EU’s threat to deploy its Anti-Coercion Instrument—a retaliatory tool designed to counter trade discrimination—could trigger a cycle of tit-for-tat measures. For instance, Canada and Mexico supply over 60% of U.S. steel and aluminum imports, and tariffs on these goods disrupt North American supply chains. Retaliation risks are particularly acute for S&P 500 companies with global exposure: 28% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets, and prolonged trade wars could depress foreign sales. Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (FED website link added for learning purposes) surged to 740 points early in March 2025, nearing levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic. Historically, such spikes correlate with a 3% contraction in the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio as investors demand higher risk premiums. Trump’s inconsistent tariff implementation—delaying Mexican tariffs after negotiations but accelerating others—has exacerbated instability. Markets reacted sharply: the S&P 500 fell 3.1% in one week following tariff announcements, erasing all post-election gains. Recession Fears and Sector-Specific Pressures Tariffs have amplified concerns about a U.S. recession. By raising consumer prices and disrupting supply chains, they risk slowing economic growth—a fear reflected in the S&P 500’s 5% decline in fair value estimates under current tariff policies. Industries like technology (dependent on Chinese components) and agriculture (targeted by retaliatory tariffs) face acute pressure. For example, China’s tariffs on soybeans and pork disproportionately hurt rural economies, indirectly dragging down broader market sentiment. Long-Term Structural Risks Studies show tariffs fail to achieve their stated goals. MIT research found Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs did not revive U.S. steel employment but caused job losses in downstream sectors8. Similarly, the 2025 tariffs risk accelerating economic decoupling, as firms diversify supply chains away from the U.S. to avoid tariff risks. This structural shift could permanently reduce the competitiveness of S&P 500 multinationals. Conclusion In summary, Trump’s tariff strategy has destabilized equity markets by undermining corporate profits, provoking retaliation, and fueling macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall we still at @PandorraResearch Team are Bearishly calling on further S&P 500 Index opportunities with further possible cascading consequences. The S&P 500’s recent slump reflects investor recognition that tariffs act as a tax on growth—one with cascading consequences for both domestic industries and global trade dynamics. -- Best 'Drill Baby, Drill' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:SPX
by PandorraResearch
$SPX: wait for the confirmation! Hello everyone! Today, I want to publish a chart showing the relationship between CBOE:SPX and the SPX/M2SL. Briefly, the idea is that if the ratio reaches its extreme (the upper or the lower Bollinger Band), the SPX will bounce. I marked it with colorful arrows, and the vertical lines show the exact timing of the decision moments, with the following direct moving in the opposite direction. M2Sl is simply the M2 Money Stock measure, which is a key indicator of the money supply in the United States. It includes all components of M1 (such as cash and checking deposits) plus several less-liquid assets like savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money market funds (according to the fred.stlouisfed.org) If the SPX/M2SL confirms its double bottom this time, we may see a relief rally (even in the short term for the current bearish environment). I like this framework, it is slow, and helps to find some ground under your feet. Stay profitable!
SP:SPXLong
by ChartsPlusFun