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Market SA – January 16th, 2025Market Recap – January 16th, 2025 Market Overview: Following a positive CPI update yesterday, markets bounced, but the question remains—was it enough? Equal-Weighted S&P 500: Moved above the 50 EMA briefly before closing below it, showing an Unbalanced Volume Divergence. This raises caution about a potential reversal or continued range-bound behavior. Russell 2000: Slightly stronger than the S&P 500, staying above the 50 EMA and neckline of its chop zone. VIX and Broader Market Indicators: VIX: Currently at 15.94, hovering in the lower range but not yet making a new low. Growth stocks have improved, with the S&P 500 growth segment above its 20-day average at 59.80. Industrials: Strong at 74, nearing reversal zones. Energy stocks: Remain at the higher end of their 20-day average, but typically, this zone precedes declines. Regional Updates: U.S. Futures: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 show green pre-market numbers but face resistance at key levels. Europe: Markets have shown strength but remain near resistance levels where prior declines have occurred. Asia: Nothing notable; markets remain flat. Sector and Commodity Highlights: Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC): Reported strong earnings, with a revenue surprise. Crypto markets: Under mild pressure but holding within ranges. Commodities: Silver, copper, and gold are trying to push higher but are still within established ranges. Screener Results: 20% Gainers: 22 symbols, dominated by health technology, though mostly small caps (largest market cap: $13 billion). 8% Weekly Gainers: 227 symbols, with a mixed bag of sectors including energy minerals, finance, health technology, and consumer durables. Notable names include Mazda , Nintendo , and a few energy stocks. 8% Weekly Losers: 147 symbols, also a mixed bag with no clear sector dominance. Combination Screens: Bullish Combinations: 83 names. Bearish Combinations: 20 names. Plan of Action: Neutral-to-bearish stance today, with a cautious outlook. Watching for signs of a reversal or clear breakouts before committing to larger positions. Leaning short in this chop zone, but the market remains undecided.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by GreenBkk
15-1 S&P:It remains to be seen what the stock market will do if inflation in the US fails to materialize. The CPI was disappointing today. Core CPI m/m is 0.2% was 0.3%, CPI m/m is 0.4% was 0.3%, CPI y/y is 2.9%, was 2.7%. The S&P has a score of neutral today consisting of Score 3, Cot Data -2, Retail Sentiment -2, Seasonality 2, Trend reading -1, GDP 1, Manufacturing PMI 1, Services PMI 1, Retail Sales 1, Inflation 1, Employment Change 1, Unemployment Rate 1, Interest Rates -1. we have a buy range at 5,944.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Probeleg
S&P Scenario 2.1.2025In this market, in order to consider some long setups, we need to hold the 6060 level or something around it, and since we didn't hold this support, we had a way to go short after the breakout. Now I see a scenario like this: the market should come for the sfp below the low as shown, or it will start to rise directly into the long, but as long as we are below the 6060 level, I'm considering a long setup. I would take that if the sfp below the low was met.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Sony97
US Inflation: A Break in Core Trends Sparks Market OptimismThe December US inflation data presented a mixed picture, but with a nuance that markets have chosen to interpret optimistically. After a prior week where robust economic data cooled expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the newly released figures offer a welcome relief. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, marking its third consecutive increase since September. However, the real surprise came from the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Contrary to expectations of stability, the annual core metric fell to 3.2%. This unexpected decline has infused optimism into markets, creating a "glass half full" sentiment. This key data, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) published the previous day, has triggered a positive movement in financial markets. US equities rose midweek, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.6%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar depreciated. This market reaction suggests that investors see these numbers as an indication that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing future decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The unexpected drop in core inflation is an encouraging sign, suggesting inflationary pressures could be diminishing faster than anticipated. Coupled with a moderated PPI, it bolsters the narrative that the Fed may have room to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy moving forward. It is worth noting that the equity rally has also been driven by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the banking sector. Results from financial giants like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, which exceeded market expectations, have helped boost investor confidence. While headline inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the moderation in the core measure offers a glimmer of hope. Markets are now increasingly anticipating the possibility of the Fed resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2025, although the resilient labor market, with 256,000 new jobs created in December, remains a key consideration. While it’s premature to declare victory, today’s data provides a more optimistic perspective on the inflation trajectory. It is crucial to closely monitor economic data and market reactions as the inflation situation evolves, particularly under the leadership of the new Donald Trump 2.0 administration.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
Market Recap – January 15th, 2025 (CPI Day)Pre-market Overview: U.S. futures are flat as the market awaits the CPI data release in two hours. In Asia, markets were relatively uneventful. The 2-3 day gains in China remain intact, while Japan and Korea traded flat. Europe opened green, supported by lower inflation numbers for November, but overall, markets remain range-bound. Key Observations: Bitcoin and crypto are holding on to gains from the previous day. European rates are down today after peaking since early December. The U.S. dollar is taking a breather, down for three days straight since its recent peak. 8% Gainers and Losers (Past Week): Gainers: 89 names, primarily from health technology, transportation, and energy minerals. Constellation Energy and Cheniere Energy (LNG) are the largest names among gainers, with most others being small caps (< $10 billion market cap). Airlines and energy continue to show strength. Losers: 302 names have declined 8% or more. Technology services, producers/manufacturers, and health technology dominate the decliners. Big names in this group include Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Toyota, Alibaba, and AMD. Watchlist Highlights: Names showing relative strength with good earnings growth include: Hood (Robinhood), CEG (Constellation Energy), Root, Brose, Sierra Deo Roblox (RBLX), Hubs (HUBS), Marvell (MRVL), Vistracorp (VST) These stocks look promising but await broader market confirmation before making a move. Technical Levels: RSP (Equal-Weighted S&P): Chopping between 176.19 and 174.78. Watching for direction after today’s CPI numbers. Plan of Action: Focus on names that have been basing and are poised for quick 3-5 day moves if the market reacts positively. If the market melts down, consider shorting larger names. Taking a cautious approach at the open, as the first move might not be the correct one. Additional Notes: Positive numbers came out from Blackrock, among others. Considering incorporating market movers from the pre-market into future notes.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by GreenBkk
S&P 500 Outlook: CPI Data and Earnings to Shape Market DirectionS&P 500 Analysis: Pre-Bell Outlook Earnings, CPI Expectations Lift Wall Street Futures; Asia Mixed, Europe Gains Wall Street futures edged moderately higher in pre-market trading on Wednesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Washington and the kickoff of the fourth-quarter earnings season. The CPI report, set to be released today, could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Technical Outlook The S&P 500 is likely to remain under pressure as long as the price trades below 5863. In such a scenario, a decline toward 5829 and 5781 is anticipated, especially if the CPI data comes in at 2.9% or higher. Conversely, if the CPI data is below 2.8%, it could support a bullish momentum, with the index potentially rising toward 5937. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5863 Resistance Levels: 5888, 5937, 5969 Support Levels: 5830, 5802, 5781 Trend Outlook Bearish trend while trading below 5863.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
4
America's 500 correct Trump inauguration and second termDonald Trump's inauguration for his second term will shake the market to adapt to his fringe trade policies. The upcoming Trump Administration already announced to impose tariffs which will advance the cause for more domestic production, but as the general cost of goods will rise, so will inflation. The first correction of the market will set S&P500 below its 200-day average. As it is unclear which role the most influential billionaire of the world, Elon Musk, will have on government policies, the market will at least frown on this uncertainty, if not react to his announcements, that "it needs to get worse before it gets better" with overall sellout. Meanwhile, major trading counterparts in the world, namely Mexico and the EU prepared for a second term of the loathed-by-leaders protectionist. China, currently in unsettling nationwide economy cooldown, braces for upcoming conflicts with the sole remaining 20th century super-power, as the inevitable Battle for Taiwan would be the longed-for distraction and a cause to get the increasingly incredulous chinese people behind the ever-scrutinized leader Xi Jinping. The conflict will further impact the High Tech industry of the west, as despite measures to recess from dependencies with the powerful Chinese economy, certain resources and products are not yet available anywhere else. Leading analysts don't see a conflict with China happening for another 2 years, opening the chance for China's economy to recover and further depress the urge of its leading powers to find a unifying cause.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Johnny_TV
Market Analisys: S&P 500SP:SPX In recent months, the S&P 500 has experienced notable fluctuations: 1. All-Time High : The index reached a record high of 6,099.97 points on December 6, 2024. 2. Correction : It then faced a correction, dropping to a low of 5,805.65 points by January 8, 2025. 3. Current Performance : As of January 14, 2025, the index closed at 5,842.91 points, reflecting a slight 0.11% increase compared to the previous day. 4. Technical Outlook : Analysts highlight potential weakness, with the next support level identified at 5,771.5 points. In summary, the SP:SPX has exhibited volatility, peaking in December 2024 and entering a correction phase in early 2025. Let's analyze in detail the various phases that have led us to this point – starting from October 27, 2023, the last moment with a significant downturn. Since then, we’ve seen an increase of about 50%, with a maximum drawdown of 10%. This represents a more than positive performance. Prior to this, we experienced a brief decline lasting around 90 days, with a drop of approximately 11%. Subsequent rallies have generally been strong, although they have been shorter and more contained. In total, we’ve experienced 5 rallies and 5 pullbacks. Currently, we are in a downtrend. As mentioned earlier, except for the first rally, the most significant one, recent bull runs have been consistently interrupted by unwelcome news, data that does not meet investor expectations, and announcements from the FED and ECB indicating that interest rate cuts will be smaller than anticipated. All of this has brought us to the current situation. We are now facing a maximum decline of about 5-6%, with a bounce on the trendline that has been guiding us since October 2023. This is all happening as inflation data is released today. The market seems to have entered a phase where it seeks further confirmations from the economy, and the technical chart is showing exactly that. Additionally, we have several other key economic data releases scheduled for this week. What do you think the market’s next move will be?
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by TIMINGTRADE
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.15.2024🔮 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: 2.7 (prev: 0.2) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
SPX500USD: Intraday DowntrendMarket Overview The SPX500USD index is currently trading within a moderate downtrend with a Trend Score of -40, as identified by BreadWinners INDI v2. The price is hovering near the Point of Control (POC) at 5,889, showing significant selling pressure. Short-term indicators suggest bearish momentum, but long-term moving averages hint at potential support near 5,800, which could lead to a reversal. The SPX500USD is currently in a moderate downtrend , with selling pressure dominating near resistance levels. Support zones between 5,827 and 5,752 remain critical for potential bullish defense. Traders should monitor these key levels closely, using the suggested entry and stop-loss levels for disciplined trading. Patience and risk management are key in this volatile environment. Resistance Levels: Primary Resistance: 5,889 (Point of Control). Secondary Resistance: 5,922.84 (BreadWinners Stop Loss level). Support Levels: Primary Support: 5,827 (BreadWinners Entry Price). Secondary Support: 5,752 (Lower Point of Control). Oscillators The oscillators indicate a mixed sentiment, with most leaning neutral and some showing divergence in momentum. Relative Strength Index (14): 39.65 (Neutral) Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3): 26.98 (Neutral) Momentum (10): -132.47 (Buy) MACD Level (12, 26): -35.46 (Sell) Stochastic RSI (Fast): 19.95 (Buy) Williams %R (14): -71.91 (Neutral) The Momentum and Stochastic RSI indicate potential for a short-term recovery, while the MACD remains bearish. Moving Averages Short-term moving averages continue to signal a sell, reinforcing bearish momentum, but long-term moving averages suggest support levels could hold. Exponential Moving Average (10, 20, 30): Sell Simple Moving Average (10, 20, 30): Sell Exponential Moving Average (200): Buy Simple Moving Average (200): Buy Hull Moving Average (9): Buy Trade Strategy Bearish Setup (Short Positions): Entry Zone: 5,889–5,900 (Primary POC and resistance zone). Stop Loss: Above 5,922.84. Target 1: 5,827 (Primary Support). Target 2: 5,752 (Secondary Support and Lower POC). Bullish Setup (Long Positions): Entry Zone: 5,827–5,752 (Key support levels). Stop Loss: Below 5,740. Target 1: 5,889 (POC and resistance retest). Target 2: 5,922 (Short-term breakout level).
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ProfessorCEWard
SPX Flow concepts in real timeThe **flow concept** in trading refers to the way markets move, either easily or with difficulty, in an upward or downward direction. It is a critical tool for traders to anticipate price movements and market behavior. Key Points: 1. Types of Flow : - Good Flow: Market moves easily in the expected direction, aligning with targets. - Poor Flow: Market struggles or moves contrary to expectations. 2. Indicators of Flow : - Range and direction of the bar. - Location of the close within the bar (near highs or lows suggests direction). - Degree of progress toward expected targets within an envelope system. 3. Using Flow in Trading : - Flow helps traders anticipate targets and identify when market behavior deviates from expectations. - It integrates multiple timeframes: higher time periods (HTP), lower time periods (LTP), and focus time periods (FTP). 4. Energy and Strength : - Flow derives from the energy between support and resistance levels (e.g., PL Dot, envelope confines). - Observing energy shifts at key levels helps predict future price movements. 5. Practical Applications : - Monitor Real-Time Flow: Recognize changes in direction or strength to adjust strategies. - Avoid Stops with Flow: Understanding flow can reduce reliance on stop-loss orders by enabling better decision-making. Conclusion: The flow concept emphasizes studying and monitoring market behavior dynamically, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis and energy zones. Mastery of flow allows traders to anticipate changes, make informed decisions, and reduce errors. In the video you see three timeframes from right to left: 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 60 minutes. At key moments in time (at close) the flow shifts and this is marked with 3 green/red boxes allowing the candles to confirm/reject the flow concept. You can see on the 5 minute and 60 minutes the flow changes is identified and confirmed. The 15 minute timeframe shows quickly the same change but it is not confirmed. Then on the opposite side you several flow shifts that are not confirmed, but eventually they also provide confirmation on the 15 and the 5 minute timeframe. This concept shows the importance to flow above terminations or levels.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by JordanMT
2
Planning Your Financial Future: A Balanced Approach to InvestingTake a moment to reflect: What do you want to achieve in life? Will you be able to consistently set aside money in the months and years to come? If you're planning to invest, it’s important to think long-term and adopt a strategy that minimizes risk while maximizing growth opportunities. Rather than investing a large sum all at once—for example, $20,000—it’s often more effective to spread your investment over time. For instance, you could invest $1,000 each month for 20 months. This approach, known as dollar-cost averaging, allows you to buy at different price points, effectively averaging out the highs and lows of the market. It also helps you remain emotionally detached from market fluctuations since both rising and falling prices can work in your favor. If you maintain a steady cash flow from your job and invest regularly in something like the S&P 500, this method can work even better. Additionally, you can adjust your strategy by contributing less during times when the market is overbought and saving that extra cash for opportunities when the market offers significant discounts. Remember, everyone’s financial situation is unique. Your paycheck, expenses, and goals will shape your strategy. While I can't tell you exactly how to invest, this method of disciplined, consistent investing with flexibility for market conditions has worked well for me—and it might work for you too.
SP:SPXEducation
by Matthiastocks
S&P 500: Levels That Could Shape the MarketThe S&P 500 is facing its first real test of 2025 as robust economic data and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create turbulence. Let’s take a look at the fundamental factors behind the pullback, along with the sector dynamics, and the key technical levels in play. Why Is the Market Wobbling? Last week’s payroll report delivered a surprise, with 256,000 jobs added in December, smashing expectations. This has thrown doubt on the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts in 2025. Swaps markets now predict just one quarter-point cut this year, with some analysts suggesting the easing cycle might already be over. The result? Treasury yields have climbed to 4.8%, their highest since late 2023. Historically, yields nearing 5% have triggered corrections of around 10%. Meanwhile, the dollar index has surged to its strongest level since November 2022, adding pressure on exports and multinational earnings. Even tech heavyweights like Nvidia, Apple, and Meta have felt the strain as investors reassess risk. Winners and Losers: Sector Trends Sector performance over the past month has been a mixed bag. Energy has been the standout, up 2.40%, helped by resilient oil prices and geopolitical factors. Technology has managed to tread water, but the rest of the market paints a different picture: • Real Estate: -7.24% • Consumer Staples: -5.71% • Consumer Discretionary: -5.46% • Materials: -4.75% • Financials: -4.44% These figures underscore growing caution, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Consumer Staples. Key Levels to Watch Since hitting new highs in early December, the S&P 500 has been in mean reversion mode. A descending channel, formed by lower swing highs and lows, has taken the index below its 50-day moving average, reflecting waning momentum. • Support Levels The 5,700-5,670 support zone is significant, featuring a cluster of historic swing highs and lows from July, August, October, and November 2024. Below this, the upward-sloping 200-day moving average serves as a pivotal line in the sand, linked to the index’s long-term bullish trend. • Resistance Levels The top of the descending channel marks the first major resistance. Beyond that, the December trend highs are the next big challenge for the bulls. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
S&P 500 key levels and scenariosAfter Monday's reversal-looking candle, all eyes today will be on whether the bulls will be able to take charge and further erode the bears' control. Earlier, weaker PPI data helped to fuel a rise in US futures, but since then we have seen a bit of a pullback from the highs, although nothin too alarming so far. Key support to watch include Monday's high at 5843, followed by 5831. A daily close below this 5831-5843 area would be a bearish development. In that scenario, a drop to take out liquidity below Monday's range would then become a likely scenario. Key short-term resistance comes in around 5873-5882 (shaded in grey). A daily close above this area could signal a trend resumption. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom