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USA500 trade ideas

How to swing long the SP500?CAPITALCOM:US500 / 1D Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. SP:SPX is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pull-back to the previous daily range for a strategic approache. If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target: First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation. Last swing high. Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence! Trade safely, Trader Leo
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by BTM-LEO
11
US 500 Index: Potential Head and Shoulders Top?The US 500 Index has been under pressure at the start of 2025 after a series of strong US economic data readings see traders and investors dismiss any hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in the first half of the year from their minds. Not only that, uncertainty around Donald Trump’s actual plans for US tariffs on key trading partners has weighed on sentiment, given that we are less than a week away from him officially starting his second term as US President. Before then tomorrow’s US CPI release at 1330 GMT needs to be negotiated. The path of US inflation is at the top of the Fed’s list of points to focus on and this means traders will be ultra-sensitive to any print that deviates from expectations. Where Does the US 500 Index Stand Technically? A positive trend within the US 500 index has dominated price activity for many months, where any weakness has been limited by buyers at higher levels each time. This buying support has proved strong enough to hold declines, turn the index higher and breach the previous failure high, extending the positive uptrend pattern, ensuring a pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows. Of course, these bullish patterns don’t remain in force for ever, and the natural ebb and flow of buyers against sellers shifts from one being dominant over the other, creating price strength or weakness. However, since the 6101 December 6th all-time high, price sellers may be the ones that are gaining the upper hand, as a more extended phase of price weakness has been seen. In the process, possible signals have emerged that may show reason to question the sustainability of further price strength. A first possible sign of a trend change came on December 18th (the reaction to that days FOMC meeting) that saw closing breaks below support offered by the rising Daily Bollinger mid-average. While this alone isn’t an outright negative signal, it is interesting that on both December 26th and January 6th, attempts at price strength were held and reversed by the then declining daily mid-average. Has Activity Formed a Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern? The close below the mid-average followed by the average turning down can be a sign of a downtrend in price, especially as it capped further attempts to move back to higher levels. However, this isn’t a guarantee of future price weakness and much still depends on future price trends. That said, there is also possible further evidence of a sentiment shift in the shape of a technical pattern called the Head and Shoulders top. If this is the case, risks may turn towards a more extended retracement of latest strength. What is a Head and Shoulders Top? A Head and Shoulders pattern is a possible indication of directional change in price. It is formed by 3 peaks in price activity. Left Shoulder: This forms when price strength reaches a peak, where sellers are found to turn price lower. If this is the type of pattern currently forming within the US 500 index, the Left Shoulder could be marked by the 6030 November 11th high. Head: After declining following the Left Shoulder, price then rallies to break above the previous peak, and post a new higher high, only to fail and see a setback towards the previous low. Within the US 500 index chart above, this may be marked by 6101, the December 6th all-time high. Right Hand Shoulder: This is where price rises again, as buyers still view weakness as an opportunity to go long, as has proved correct on previous occasions. But this time, sellers develop at a lower level than the ‘head’ and subsequent price weakness sees a more extended phase of weakness. On the chart above, the Right Shoulder could prove to be the 6040 December 26th high. Neckline: This is the support line drawn by connecting the lowest closing points of the 2 troughs between the Left Shoulder and the Head, and the Head and the Right Shoulder. This can be horizontal, or as is possibly the case within the US 500 index, slightly sloping. It’s closing breaks of the Neckline that could suggest completion of the pattern, which may have developed at last Friday’s US 500 index close. Because formation and confirmation of a Head and Shoulders Top in the past has seen price weakness doesn’t mean it will do so again. However, Friday’s close below Neckline line support may suggest a sentiment shift and lead to further price weakness and deeper retracement of the April 2024 to December 2024 strength. That said, fresh price strength isn’t ruled out by the formation of this possible reversal. Although, it would seem as if breaks and closes back above the 5921 declining Bollinger mid-average are now required to ease the threat of a deeper price decline and prompt potential to resume the recent uptrend pattern. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
S&P500 This is why 2025 will be Bullish.The S&P500 index (SPX) just hit its 1W MA25 (red trend-line) for the first time since the August 05 2024 Low (5 months ago). This is a major long-term Support trend-line, the first one out of a total three. As you can see on this chart, the index has been trading within a Channel Up on the log scale ever since the bottom of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis. During this pattern, it has gone through phases of strong and extended Bull where the 1W MA25 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) offers the Support Zone and every test is a buy opportunity and when those break, the Bear phase starts, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), with the exception being of course the non-technical, once in 100 years event of the March 2020 COVID flash crash. It is now the 1W MA25 that comes as the first major Support level and with the 1W RSI forming the same kind of Channel Down divergence as early 2014, we expect further extension of the current Bull Phase into 2025. In fact, every Bull Cycle has either increased by roughly +100% or +62% and since the current one is way over +62%, it is fair to expect that it will pursue the +100% mark. That is currently exactly at 7000 and could be achieved by the end of 2025 as every previous Cycle Top was priced towards the end its year with a frequency of either 3 or 4 years. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.14.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 14 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
S&P500 bottomed on its Falling Wedge. Strong short term upside. S&P500 / SPX is trading inside a Falling Wedge since the November 19th low and today hit the pattern's bottom. This has coincided with the 4hour RSI hitting the 30.00 oversold limit. Every time this has take place, the price rebounded to at least its 0.786 Fibonacci and the 4hour MA200. This time the 0.786 Fib is very close to the top of the Falling Wedge but we can technically target the 4hour MA200 a little lower at 5950. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
1
SPX: Exploring Buying Opportunities Amidst Bearish Trends 🚀 SPX: Exploring Buying Opportunities Amidst Bearish Trends 🚀 📊 Recent Performance: The S&P 500 began 2025 with a 0.71% drop last week. Strong economic data has shifted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to July, creating cautious sentiment across the markets. 📈 Key Technical Levels to Watch: Support: Immediate support sits around 5800, a critical psychological and technical level for potential accumulation. Next Support: If tested, 5750 could present attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors. Resistance: A daily close above 5900 would suggest renewed momentum for bulls. 🔍 Potential Entry Zones: Dynamic Neutral Zones: These areas signal market equilibrium and provide an excellent guide for strategic entries. Extreme Negative Zones: Watch for pullbacks into oversold regions, which often align with value-based accumulation opportunities. 🌱 Bullish Reversal Signals: A breakout above 5866, accompanied by strong buying interest, could signal a return to upward momentum. Positive catalysts, such as earnings surprises or favorable economic releases, may support a recovery. 🧭 Strategy for Investors: Focus on pullbacks near well-defined support zones to position for long-term growth. Use dynamic support levels to guide disciplined entry points and avoid chasing trends. 📢 What’s Your Take on SPX’s Path Ahead? 📈 Bullish 🔄 Neutral 💬 Share your favorite tickers in the comments! Let’s analyze them together and uncover the best buying opportunities.
TVC:SPXLong
by DCAChampion
1
SP500: Has it formed or is it close to forming a floor?The first thing we need to consider is, what has the market discounted? Or rather, what has led fund managers to sell shares of the SP500? From my point of view, what fund managers think is: 1) That the US economy is strong. 2) That the labor market is stabilized. 3) And that wage growth is in line with a CPI of 3%. Therefore, they estimate that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates. BUT, we already knew this in November, and the SP500 continued to rise steadily. --> WHAT IS NEW THAT HAS CAUSED THE SP500 TO FALL? The strong APPRECIATION of the DOLLAR. This has put downward pressure on the stock markets. But what happens? The DOLLAR is reaching a ceiling area, and we could see it retreating somewhat or entering a sideways range in the coming weeks, favoring again the RISES OF THE STOCK MARKETS. --> At what point is the SP500 technically? The technical aspect of the SP500 is that it has a clear bullish trend in the medium to long term, but is currently in a correction phase. Today, on the H1 chart, we have seen the FIRST BULLISH WARNING (Bull), and therefore, we could see a bullish move at the end of today’s session and during tomorrow, which could extend if it surpasses the 5,844 area. -------------------------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H1 candle closes above 5,844. POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 5,980 area (+2.35%) --> Stop Loss at 5,770 (-1.2%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-1.2%) (coinciding with 5,770 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (5,980). SETUP CLARIFICATIONS *** How to know which 2 long positions to open? Let’s take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a predetermined distance. That predetermined distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. --> Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will close. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on the increases, thus reducing the risk until the position enters profit. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by jmesado
S&P Bullish expectationBased on EW count, support lines on the graph and on RSI the expectation is that the index will bottom out within the next weeks and move towards a new ATH this summer. After that a decline of 20% is expected. Recommendation is to scale into the index during the next weeks and exit this summer Nasdaq and S&P is expected to follow so an option is to enter either TQQQ or SPXL/UPRO Other counts are possible and we are at the end of the bull run, so take care. Divergence on RSI has been seen for a while, indicating a correction on the way
SP:SPXLong
by jespergarm
$SPX Recap of Last Week - We are down on the year - at 4hr 200MANo video today guys because I had a bit of traveling this weekend and I’m just getting back to my computer, but this is a recap of last week in one chart. We started last week with a gap up over the 50 day moving average from there, we got above the 30 minute 200MA and saw resistance at the 1H 200 moving average (green arrow) and that pushed us back down Underneath and smacked us all the way down to the four hour 200 Moving average. We also filled that gap from the first week of the trading year and took it even lower into the election gap. So we are red on the year and sitting right on top of the four hour 200 and the election gap. (Green arrow)
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
S&P 500 Analysis: Key Levels and Impact of CPI Release, To down! S&P 500 Analysis The price has dropped, breaking the trend line and stabilizing below the support zone. As long as the price remains below 5783 this week, it is expected to target 5734 and 5693. If a 4-hour candle closes below 5693, the price could continue to drop toward 5643. On the other hand, a daily candle closing above 5805 would signal a bullish move toward 5863. Note: This week, the CPI release is anticipated to have a significant impact on market movements. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5781 Resistance Levels: 5822, 5863, 5893 Support Levels: 5734, 5693, 5643 Trend Outlook Bearish Trend: Below 5783 Bullish Trend: Above 5805 (daily close required)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month LowS&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month Low On Friday, the US unemployment data was released, as reported by ForexFactory: → The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%; → The number of new jobs (Non-Farm Employment Change) increased by 256,000 over the month, although analysts had forecast an increase of 164,000 (previous value = 212,000). According to Reuters, the strong labour market data strengthened the market participants' view that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting interest rates in 2025. Based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs for the first time in June and then keep it at that level for the remainder of the year. Expectations that tight monetary policy will persist longer than usual have led to bearish sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) dropped below the 5,800 mark this morning, its lowest point since early November. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: → A bearish Head and Shoulders (SHS) pattern is visible on the chart; → The price has broken below the median of the ascending channel (marked in blue). The strengthening bearish sentiment may lead to: → The price fluctuating within the descending channel, the boundaries of which are already visible (marked in red); → The median of this red channel currently acting as support. It is possible that the intensification of bearish sentiment will result in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declining towards the 5,700 level, which may be reinforced by the proximity of the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
SPX MegaphoneHere's a one month chart for SPX. We have a giant megaphone that started at a peak near the beginning of 1973 and the bottom in 1974. This will obviously take a while to play out, but I truly believe the black swan event and major crash I've been warning about will happen very soon. 2025 will be the beginning of a time of great tribulations for all of us on Earth, but I do believe there will be a light at the end of the tunnel and there will be a generational wealth building opportunity eventually, probably around 2030ish. I do not want to be a permabear and fear monger. I have seriously never said anything like this in my life and I won't ever again because this is it. We are living through a time that will be talked about and studied for centuries, I truly believe that with every fiber of my being. I began posting my thoughts and analysis in early 2024 and honestly the whole reason why I did that is because I felt like i knew we were about to have a melt up/blow off top for the ages followed by a devastating crash and I wanted people to know about it and the reasons why it happened. It's been a wild ride and we have witnessed a historic rally, but the end is near. The crash will be every bit as historic as the recent rally, it will be worse than 1929. We will have full scale World War 3, pandemics, currency collapses, and everything in between. This is my final warning, things are about to get very weird and it's time for me to take a step back and focus on things that are more important to my family and I. Money is not the answer to your problems. I'm not sure if I made the right decision or not by attempting to teach people what I know about the stock market. If you've been following me, you have probably realized that I have very strong opinions about how and why stock prices move the way they do. This is a very difficult game and in the end it all comes down to psychology. No matter what I do or say, I'm not sure I can actually help anyone because it is very difficult, even if you know what is going to happen, you can still get completely destroyed. I'm starting to feel like it's not something I should promote. I just felt strongly that I had a duty to talk about this because I know what I know and most people don't pay attention to this or have any real knowledge about markets. Those who try seem doomed to fail due to the amount of misinformation on social media and speculation about why prices move. Stock prices move because wholesale stock operators manipulate stock prices by accumulating stocks, pushing them to the highest point humanly possible and then they distribute. After they are done, stock prices begin to fall until they start accumulating again and once they are done, the whole process starts again. The fed plays a major role in this and runs the entire thing. They have finally started to pull liquidity after increasing the money supply by over 400% in just a few years, a completely insane thing to do. In December we finally saw a huge drop in liquidity and it's going to continue. Keep an eye on the M! and M2 money supply charts. Stock prices move because there are either more buyers than sellers or vice versa, that is all. People want to speculate about why and talk about various events they think will happen or because of what they think about the economy. This is a big fallacy that has plagued retail traders since the stock market was created. Wholesalers know what will happen before it happens, they know the news that's coming most of the time and if they don't, they still use it to generate enough volume that allows them to enter and exit positions, they could not do what they do without volume from retail. If we have a bull market, negative news is ignored and positive news is highlighted. In a bear market, negative news is highlighted and positive news is ignored. There is a reason why it costs $50k+ for just a few minutes of air time on CNBC. Inverse Cramer works because he is paid to say what he says, he says the opposite of the truth and so do the rest of the financial media outlets. 99% of retail traders are not profitable after 7 years of trading and 80% who try are finished within 2 years. It is this way by design. We all attempt to do it because we want financial freedom and to provide for our families. The problem is greed takes over and he who hastens to be rich will be punished, that is a certainty just as much as death and taxes are. I don't know the exact time or what the exact event will be and I have no idea when it bottoms either. I do have some ideas, but that's just speculation. Either way, I know it's coming. This chart and path is my best guess as to how this will play out and it may go even lower than the 2009 low, but at that point I don't think it really matters anyway. If you want my honest opinion (not financial advice), I think the best thing to do is to simply exit all long positions on US equities, buy gold and silver and forget about it. Focus on the important things in life instead, you will outperform almost everyone in the next 5 years if you do this. In the end, you have to do whatever you think is best and you cannot trade based on what someone else says. If you do that, you will have no idea how to manage the trade, what to expect, or how to manage emotions if it doesn't go as planned. You will lack the conviction necessary to make good decisions because you won't have any conviction if you just follow someone else and don't actually believe in the trade or know why you took the trade. Thank you for all the support, I appreciate it and I'm sorry if you have lost money due to any of my analysis. I was just trying to help... It is time to focus on what's important in life, it is too short to spend your whole life chasing the dragon of unlimited wealth, that is not the way. I wish you all the best, Godspeed.
SP:SPXShort
by AdvancedPlays
3
SPX: correction is over?The start of the year was not very pleasant for the US equity markets. The latest drop in the value of the major US indices was induced by adjusted expectations on the effects of “higher for longer” interest rates in the US. Namely, the US economy is standing relatively good with a still strong jobs market. The US added 256K jobs in December, which was strongly higher from market expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1 percentage points, to the level of 4,1%. These figures are absolutely good for the US economy, however, they did not make investors happy. The tricky part is that the market is now expecting that the Fed will halt further decrease of interest rates, where some analysts are noting the potential for the first 25 bps cut in September this year. The environment of still increased interest rates will not support the growth of US companies, especially small-caps, in a way that the market has previously estimated. This was the initial premise, based on which, the S&P 500 ended the week lower, reaching the level of 5.827 on Friday. At this moment the main question is whether the market will continue with a correction, or is it now a good time to buy the dip? Probably some higher volatility is expected around and on the day of the FOMC meeting in January, when investors will get additional information regarding the course of the US interest rates from FED officials. This date will set the course for the rest of the year. Still, during this period some higher volatility is possible. In technical analysis there is a clear line which connects bottoms on a 1D chart, from October 2023, then bottom in august 2024 and current bottom at Fridays levels. So, charts are noting, if this level is sustained during the next week or two, then the market will revert back to the upside. In case that current levels are breached toward the downside, that should be an indication of a higher correction in the future period.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX