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S&P 500 Struggles Below 5856 Amid Tariff PressureS&P 500 (SPX500) Analysis – March 4, 2025 The S&P 500 has declined to 5856 after rejecting the 5879 pivot zone. Market sentiment remains bearish following Trump's tariff announcement on Canada, Mexico, and China. Technical Outlook 📉 Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5856, the downtrend remains active, with the next key support levels at 5826 and 5792. A 1H or 4H candle close below 5792 would accelerate the decline toward 5764. 📈 Bullish Scenario: A break and 1H or 4H close above 5879 would indicate a bullish shift, targeting 5920 and 5938. ⚠️ Market Impact: The tariff decision on Canada, Mexico, and China has increased market uncertainty, leading to a risk-off sentiment. Key Levels to Watch 🔸 Resistance: 5879 | 5920 | 5938 🔹 Pivot: 5856 🔻 Support: 5826 | 5792 | 5764 📉 Directional Bias: Bearish below 5856 – A confirmed breakdown below 5792 would strengthen downside momentum.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
What does SPX wants?So, I wanted to try something new. Let's take a look at the SPX chart. I plotted pitchfork by taking the median line as the starting high of February 2020, and setting the bottom at the downside and the ATH in January 2022. And I discovered a newly published indicator Whalemap . it tracks seller and buyer activity through order analysis. In December at the 0.756 level of this pitchfork, Whalemap printed weekly sell-signal. However, for this trading instrument (SPX i mean) it seems to be somewhat ahead of the curve. Okay, if price is still inside this huge channel, let's assume that with the selling pressure it won't be able to break out of the channel. A new ATH may well be formed without leaving pitchfork channel. If degree of the rise doesn't change, it may well reach ~5050 points before SPX begins a correction. 
Additionally, I left my favorite VFI_LF which indicates a two-year divergence of volume flow. This can't help but end in a strong correction.
SP:SPX
by averkie_skila
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle. 👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3. ⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December. The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market correction, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility from March 17. A great period for short-term trading. Retrograde Venus usually has a one-week lag, which would place it around March 10. ⚠️ This base cycle is likely to be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I predicted this in early January. NASDAQ has already broken below the base cycle opening level. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts. These long cycles will complete in the current base cycle. However, I do not expect a correction to exceed 20-25%, as a major crash is unlikely before summer this year or spring next year.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
SPX500 Bullish Retracement or Short Continuation? 1. Top-Down Bias 1. Weekly (Long-Term): • Structural Trend: Bullish (higher highs/higher lows) since mid-2022. • Momentum: Cooling (Weekly MACD negative, RSI slipping from overbought). • Conclusion: Still in an uptrend overall, but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks. 2. Daily (Intermediate-Term): • Trend: Corrective/short-term bearish tilt (price below 10 & 50-Day SMAs). • Support: Key rising trendline near 5,830–5,850; 200-Day SMA around 5,737. • Conclusion: Intact broader uptrend, but near-term momentum is down. Bulls must reclaim ~6,000–6,100 to regain full control. 3. 4-Hour (Short-Term): • Trend: Bearish (lower highs/lower lows, price below major 4H SMAs & Ichimoku Cloud). • Bounce: Price is rebounding off ~5,830. Overhead resistance near 5,950–6,000. • Conclusion: Still bearish unless price closes decisively above ~6,000. 4. 2-Hour (Intraday): • Trend: Dominantly down, but intraday MACD and RSI have turned bullish. • Resistance: 5,940–5,970 (Fib confluence) and ~5,990–6,000 (Ichimoku Cloud base). • Conclusion: Short-term bounce is underway, but the structure remains cautious below 6,000. Overall Bias: • Long-Term: Bullish. • Short-Term: Bearish/Corrective. • Potential for a relief rally if price breaks above ~5,970–6,000. Otherwise, deeper corrections could target 5,830–5,850 or below. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Major Resistance Zones: • 6,000–6,100: Overhead supply on Daily & 4H, plus 10 & 50-Day SMAs, Ichimoku cloud underside. • 5,970–6,000: 2H/4H Fib confluence and descending trend line. • Major Support Zones: • 5,830–5,850: Short-term bullish order blocks, rising daily trendline, and 2H/4H support. • 5,737: 200-Day SMA, key if the above zone fails. • 5,600–5,400 (Weekly OB) and 5,634 (50-Week SMA): Deeper support if a more significant correction unfolds. • Indicator Confluences: • Weekly Ichimoku → Price well above the cloud, but momentum fading. • Daily Ichimoku → Price near/below the cloud (~5,990–6,000). • MA Clusters → 10 & 50-Day near 6,000; 100-Day ~5,960; 200-Day ~5,737. • Fibs → 5,830–5,970 region offers multiple retracement overlaps on lower timeframes. 3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Recovery Narrative: Despite recent short-term weakness, the longer-term uptrend is still intact. A rebound could take hold if price holds above critical support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims the Daily/4H resistances near 6,000. Indicators on lower timeframes (2H MACD & RSI) hint at a near-term bounce. 3.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look for intraday bullish reversal candles (e.g., 2H bullish engulfing) near 5,840–5,860 support—before a confirmed 4H close above resistance. • This could be triggered if RSI on 2H recrosses above 50 (it already has) and price bounces off a retest of 5,850. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stops just below 5,830 (recent swing low). • Accept the risk of whipsaw if the market tests that area again. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Potential for a strong R:R if the bounce holds; you enter near the bottom of the range. • Cons: High chance of a false breakout or further drawdown if short-term momentum fails. 3.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for partial confirmation such as a 4H close above ~5,950–5,970 (descending trend line/Fib zone). • Alternatively, a bullish MACD crossover on the 4H chart or price reclaiming the 4H Ichimoku conversion line (~5,950–5,970). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., if price pulls back to 5,880–5,900, place stops slightly beneath). • Gives moderate breathing room compared to the ultra-tight approach. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Lower risk of immediate fakeouts. • Cons: May miss the absolute bottom if price reverses sharply without much consolidation. 3.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require strong confirmation: a Daily close above ~6,000 (10 & 50-Day SMAs + Ichimoku Cloud) to ensure the short-term trend has flipped bullish. • Prefer RSI (Daily) back above 50 and MACD turning positive on the Daily timeframe. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Wider stop below the 200-Day SMA (~5,737) or below 5,830 pivot if you want a slightly tighter but still “safer” cushion. • Aims to weather typical intraday volatility. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Much higher probability trade aligned with a proven trend resumption. • Cons: Enters at a higher price; your initial R:R might be smaller. 3.4 Bullish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~6,100 (major overhead supply, near the upper end of daily cloud/resistance). • Target 2 (T2): ~6,200–6,250 (next potential swing high if momentum truly shifts). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider taking partial profits at T1 (~6,100) and trailing stop to break-even. • If price pushes above 6,100, let a portion ride toward 6,200+. • Invalidation: • A Daily close below ~5,830 (or a 4H close well beneath that pivot) undermines the bullish thesis. • Bearish signals on Daily MACD (staying negative) also reduce bullish odds. 4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction Narrative: Recent breaks below key Daily MAs and a confirmed 4H/2H downtrend indicate the market may extend its pullback. The bounce to ~5,950–6,000 could fail, triggering a new leg lower toward 5,830 or even the 200-Day SMA (~5,737). 4.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look to short on a minor retest/failure at intraday resistance (e.g., 2H pivot near 5,960–5,970). • Could also short an immediate break below 5,850 if that level cracks intraday. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., if shorting near 5,970, stop ~5,995–6,000). • This captures a potential quick continuation lower but risks getting stopped out on whipsaws. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Larger reward if the market breaks down quickly from near-resistance. • Cons: Elevated risk of fake breakdown or sudden bullish intraday reversal. 4.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for a 4H candle close below ~5,850 (the short-term support / OB zone) or for RSI (4H) to slip back under 50 from its bounce. • Confirm negative MACD cross or downward slope on the 4H chart. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Place stops slightly above the retest zone (5,870–5,880) or the most recent swing high. • Allows for typical 4H volatility around S/R lines. 4.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require a Daily close below 5,830 (rising trendline break) and a retest that fails to reclaim that line. • Confirm daily MACD remains negative and RSI stays below 50. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above the nearest significant daily pivot or 200-Day SMA if you’re aiming for a multi-day to multi-week short. • A wide stop to accommodate more volatile corrections. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: High probability of a sustained down-move once that daily trendline is lost. • Cons: The initial break might be fast; you could miss the “best” short entry. 4.4 Bearish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~5,737 (200-Day SMA) if the immediate support at 5,830 fails. • Target 2 (T2): ~5,600–5,400 (major weekly OB & 50-Week SMA ~5,634). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider locking in partial gains near T1 (200-Day) and trailing stops to break-even. • If momentum accelerates, hold a runner down toward 5,600 or lower. • Invalidation: • 4H or Daily close back above ~6,000 would undercut the bearish premise, as it signals a reclaim of critical MAs and Ichimoku territory. • A bullish MACD crossover on Daily also weakens the short thesis. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing 1. Volatility (ATR) Awareness: • Weekly ATR ~166; 4H ATR ~44. Elevated intraday volatility means you may need slightly wider stops or smaller position sizes. • For short-term trades (4H/2H), consider using a fraction of your usual size to account for bigger swings. 2. R:R Ratios: • Target at least 1:2 or better. • Scale your position so the max loss is within your tolerance (1–2% of your account per trade). 3. Timeframe Alignment: • Larger positions if Daily & Weekly confirm a direction. • If 4H/2H contradict the higher timeframes, trade smaller or wait for alignment. 4. Partial Profit Strategies: • At T1, take partial off (e.g., 50%) and move stop to entry. • Let the rest ride to T2 if momentum follows through. 6. Timing & Confirmation 1. Candle Close vs. Intraday: • For more reliable signals, wait for 4H or Daily closes at critical S/R (above 6,000 for bullish or below 5,830 for bearish). • Aggressive traders may jump in on intraday wicks or 2H signals but must accept higher whipsaw risk. 2. Market Sessions: • Key breakouts often occur during London or New York opens when liquidity spikes. • If trading overnight or in low-liquidity sessions, be mindful of sudden volatility pockets. 7. Extra Notes & Contradictions 1. Mixed Signals Across Timeframes: • Weekly bullish vs. 4H/2H bearish. This can cause choppy price action. Intraday shorts may still work in a higher timeframe uptrend as a temporary pullback trade. 2. Event & News Catalysts: • Unexpected fundamental events (economic data releases, central bank announcements) can override technical setups. 3. Ranging vs. Trending: • If price stalls between 5,850 and 5,950 for several sessions, we may be in a short-term range. Look to fade extremes until a breakout clarifies direction. 8. Final Summary • Top-Down Bias: • Weekly remains bullish overall but losing momentum. • Daily is short-term bearish, yet still above the 200-Day SMA. • 4H/2H are in a downtrend, but a bounce is in progress. • Key Levels & Confluences: • Support: 5,830–5,850; 5,737 (200-Day); deeper ~5,600–5,400. • Resistance: 5,970–6,000 (short-term), then 6,000–6,100 (major daily overhead). • Scenarios: • Bullish if price holds support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims ~6,000. • Aggressive: Buy near 5,840–5,860 on 2H signals. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close above ~5,950–5,970. • Conservative: Require Daily close above ~6,000 and a bullish MACD on Daily. • Bearish if price fails near 5,950–6,000 or breaks 5,830. • Aggressive: Short rejections around 5,960–5,970 or immediate break of 5,850. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close below 5,850. • Conservative: Require Daily close below 5,830 and retest fail. • Risk Management: • Use ATR to size positions, keep R:R ≥ 1:2, scale out at T1, etc. • Edge Cases / Fundamentals: • Stay alert for macro news or high-impact data that could abruptly change the technical landscape. Bottom Line: We have a long-term bullish market undergoing a short-term correction. A push above ~5,970–6,000 would reassert upside momentum; failure at this zone and a drop under 5,830 could extend the sell-off toward the 200-Day SMA or deeper weekly supports. Select the risk profile (Aggressive, Moderate, or Conservative) that best fits your trading style and capital preservation goals, and always align position sizing with your maximum risk tolerance.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Up for SPX500USDHi traders, Wow! Last week the price action of SPX500USD went exactly to the target as predicted in my outlook. On Monday it dropped and after a correction up it took the liquidity under the previous lows and filled the 4H FVG. I've updated the wave count. Now next week we could see a corrective upmove to the higher 4H FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
3
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827. Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143. Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Skeptic | Weekly Recap: Big Wins, Misses & Lessons!Hey guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today I’m gonna do a full recap of the past week’s positions and watchlist. We’re gonna see what worked, what didn’t, and what lessons we learned along the way. Let’s get into it! 🚀 Position Review: What We’ll Cover What was the trigger? What was the result (profit/loss)? Why did it work or fail? I’ll be linking all the relevant ideas so you can check out the full analysis for each setup. Also, if I don’t mention a position, it’s because the trigger I gave hasn’t activated yet. Let’s dive in! 💥 Position #1: XAUUSD (12 March) 📈 4-Hour Time Frame Recently, we saw a breakout of the range box, but the price quickly pulled back inside, indicating that sellers failed to maintain bearish momentum. This suggests that the long-term uptrend is still holding strong. 🔮 Next Move? If we see a break above the 4-hour resistance at 2927.25, it could be a solid signal for continuing the uptrend. The final bullish trigger will be after a breakout above 2954.74, confirming strong upside momentum. 📉 Short Setup: The main short trigger is a break below 2878.84. Once that level breaks, there’s no significant support until 2841.74, so the move could be sharp and quick. Given the importance of this support, expect some volatility and adjust your stops accordingly. ✅ Outcome: The long trigger at 2919 was activated, and we managed to hit an R/R of 5. Reasons for Success: Trading in the direction of the major trend: Always increases R/R and win rate. Strong breakout candle: A solid 4-hour candle showed both buyer strength and seller presence, signaling a great breakout opportunity. Good momentum: Previous corrections were minimal (less than 35% on the Fib retracement), and bullish candles were strong. 💥 Position #2: XAGUSD (12 March) We recently witnessed a range box breakout, but the price swiftly pulled back inside, showing that sellers failed to keep the momentum. The daily major uptrend still looks strong. ✅ Outcome: This position also delivered an R/R of 3. Reasons for Success: Long trade aligned with the trend: Always a safer bet. Sharp reaction to resistance: Breaking strong resistance often results in a sharp move. No major resistance ahead: This allowed the move to extend further, giving us a higher R/R. 💥 Position #3: SPX (14 March) 🔍 Market Overview: The weekly trend is still up, but the daily time frame has entered a corrective downtrend due to trade tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries. This led to the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame, we entered a range box and recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, showing buyer strength and seller weakness. This gives a slight long bias. ✅ Outcome: Our trigger at 5564.67 activated with a solid indecision candle on the 1-hour time frame. If you took the trade with a safe stop loss, you should be sitting on an R/R of 2 by now. Reasons for Success: Fake breakout recovery: Sellers couldn’t hold the price down, and buyers pushed it back into the range, absorbing liquidity. Lower-than-expected inflation: Improved sentiment and led to a bullish push. Indecision candle confirmation: Signaled buyer presence and seller exhaustion. 💡 Key Takeaway: This week, we managed to secure an R/R of 10, which is fantastic. I’m not gonna brag about how much profit we made, because that number can vary based on each trader’s risk management and position size. A professional trader measures success through win rate, losing streaks, and R/R, not just the percentage of profit made. 🚨 Pro Tip: If anyone claims they make “X% profit consistently,” be cautious—it’s probably a scam. Real traders focus on maintaining consistent risk management and realistic expectations. 💬 Final Thoughts: If you took any of these trades or have similar setups, share your experience in the comments! And if you’ve got any questions or insights, drop them below—I’m here to help and discuss. Let’s grow together, not alone! 💪🔥 Wishing you an awesome weekend!
SPREADEX:SPX
by SkepticWise
Trump and the Market's Turmoil📉 Hey hey, here we are. It's been an eventful last week or two to say in the least for everyone. We've seen one of the worlds most followed stock-market benchmarks slide into correction territory following some of Trumps remarks and actions in the last week or two already under his administration prompting fears and a growing pessimism from Investors with Washington's whipsaw of policy changes an announcements, particularly in reference to the latest tariff's trump has been threatening other countries with and imposed. 📉 Currently CNN has the Fear and Greed Index for the market at 21 signifying Extreme Fear driving the market which for the most part is thanks to trump following all the anxiety surrounding Trump's tariff threats and actions. On top of this in Trumps' latest Fox interview on Sunday when asked if he was expecting a recession this year Trump responded in full; "I hate to predict things like that". Understandably so, this prompted a rather steep sell off and turn around for the SP:SPX leading investors to exit and jump ship rather quick. 📉 Understandably so, the markets are in turmoil right now, Investors are trying to figure out what our next move might be, as to whether or not we'll possibly slide more now that we're in correction territory or whether or not we've reverse and manage to regain and recoup some of the ground we've lost following the slew of announcements, tariffs, and threat's trump's made the last few weeks. 📉 We're basically stuck within this descending channel so for technical analysis we'll have to lookout for a clean breakout before we can anticipate or look to any upside or positive moves back up, and even so we already know that'll be much easier said than done, especially with Trump still threatening tariffs and Investors worrying about the impact all these actions will play in the near future and further out. 📉 Today's already going positively with us seeing a 600 point bounce already but we already know it'll take much more than just one green day before we can hold that outlook, especially after what the last week or two have done to us. 📉 I'll leave the idea here for now, we'll be back to keep things updated and posted but definitely keep an eye out for a breakout and we'll be looking to our 200 EMA to watch for a convergence which would be a great help if we could regain that and hopefully get out of this Extreme Fear sentiment. 📉 Till then, wishing all the best, thank you sm for all the support and till next, have a great day! ~ Rock '
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
spx 500 sell Concept: Looking for a sell setup when price reaches a 4-hour demand zone. Price should first take out the previous day's high (PDH) (liquidity grab). After the reaction at the previous day's low (PDL), an inducement should form. The setup is confirmed when the market structure shifts (MSS) after the liquidity grab. Execution Plan: Identify the 4H Demand Zone Look for a strong bullish order block or fair value gap (FVG) in the 4-hour timeframe. Wait for Liquidity Grab at PDH Price should sweep the previous day’s high to trap breakout buyers. Monitor Reaction at PDL If price reacts from the previous day’s low and forms an inducement, it confirms liquidity engineering. Look for Market Structure Shift (MSS) & Entry Confirmation Enter a sell trade when price breaks a lower timeframe structure (M5 or M15) with a strong bearish candle. Use a fair value gap (FVG) or an order block as an entry trigger. Set Stop Loss & Take Profit Stop Loss: Above the liquidity grab (PDH or 4H OB). Take Profit: 1st target at the previous day's low (PDL), extended target at a discount level (Fibonacci 0.62). Indicators & Tools:
FX:SPX500Short
by lasinsraj