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US Cocoa (CC)UU

US Cocoa (CC)

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USCOCOA trade ideas

Cocoa Short Had an eye on this one for a while and there've been a few points I thought we might be making a high in this but so far taken no action on it (Which has proven wise). Now we have a strong confluence of sell signals, though. We have the potential AB=CD topping patterns and this comes in at the 1.61 head fake level. See strategy info here: 1.61 head fake is an optimal spot to short what may be the end of a parabolic trend. It's not a sure fire signal (By any means) but it allows for the defining of a small zone in which to make high RR bets. Taking a short in this area now.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by holeyprofit
10
Ivory Coast Expects Cocoa Rebound Next Season on Better Weather Country expects to harvest 2 million tons in 2024-25 crop year Futures prices have dipped on improved cocoa crop outlook Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is expected to rebound next season — helping ease a global supply squeeze that pushed prices past records — as the world’s top grower banks on better weather. The West African producer is likely to harvest 2 million tons of the chocolate-making ingredient in the 2024-25 crop year that starts Oct. 1, according to people familiar with the matter, who cited early pod counting. The outlook for the upcoming year compares with the 1.8 million tons the International Cocoa Organization estimates the country will harvest by the end of the current season in September. Ivory Coast’s output averaged 2.2 million tons in the five years before 2023-24. The country has already sold 800,000 tons of the 2024-25 harvest on the forward market, the people said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. However, they added forward sales have since been paused by the industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao. The CCC plans a combination of forward and spot sales in the future, as part of a marketing reform. A mix of bad weather, disease, and aging trees in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana drove this season’s slump and saw New York cocoa futures soar past $11,000 a ton earlier this year. Prices have since eased on optimism about improving weather conditions in West Africa. Ghana is also expecting a better crop next season. Ivory Coast is also cracking down on the smuggling of cocoa beans to neighboring countries which will help boost supplies, said the people. An estimated 200,000 tons of beans were smuggled this season, they added. A spokesperson for the CCC declined to comment when contacted by phone on Friday.
P
by Elite_Forex
$COCOA - TEXTBOOK SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE Just updating the subject idea. Back in 2022, this textbook symmetric triangle had caught my attention, for how neatly and ostensibly it was being displayed. I find this pattern interesting because of how it moves from volatility to the lack of it, slowly expelling the traders who are preventing this market from moving where it wants to, until they are no longer participating and the price is free to break-out and move unburdened as it is moving at the moment. Worth mentioning also that fake-out as pointed out by the green arrow, it shows us that there are some traders in this market with pockets deep enough to bid it down, just to trap the more unexperienced traders into selling this breakout and fueling the buy orders of the initial group, which then takes off with few or no more sellers to obstruct the rally. Another note on this fakeout for future reference: wait for a successful retest to enter. Do you see that successful retest in this market? No, those nOv and Dec 2022 candles should have been bearish candlestick patterns or structural breakouts on the short side, created against the broker trendline and EMAs. Instead, they kept on piercing through and in Feb 2023, we received a definite trigger for a trade on the long side. Finally, at this highlighted area, as the area from the massive sell off that preceded this pattern, erupted. The odds are more bears will be sitting in that range. The odds of bullish undisputed control in this market diminish substantially in that area. Most importantly: hindsight and narration bias make you think that this outcome was 100% predictable. It was not. Price action and technical analysis is an excellent tool to guide us into discovering the path of least resistance, quantifying the markets and the patterns therein, however, at the end of the day, this is nothing but a probabilistic assessment. Reality is complex, anything can happen tomorrow, next week, next month ... ... what should that tell you as a trader? Manage risk, manage risk, manage risk, that's just, by far, your paramount remit as a trader. Cheers, Tenacious Tribe - Quantified Trading Strategies & Studies
PLong
by ruben_rodrigues
COCOA about to crashNot much of a technical analysis as we can see but there is not much we can do about it. The chart is just parabolic due to the high amount of big companies hedging against the worse-than-expected harvest. The fundamental analysis could not be much of a help either because nothing can resonate with such pricing for the cocoa. This type of trade is just speculative because it has a decent Risk-Reward. Stops above the previous high TP between 7,000-7,600$
PShort
by Elite_Forex
8
Do you like chocolate? Buy here.If you are interested to trade COCOA, which was in ATH few days ago, I´m suggesting to wait 5325 looks like a good entry level. BUT, please don´t use entry line as a trigger. Use REACTION on that line as a trigger. What does it mean? Price is going to fall there, most likely even below. When you see an aggressive close back ABOVE the entry line, enter and set SL. Don´t fall to the trap by buying lower(because of more favorable price). You can get trapped. Price will be more "favorable", but you will make your trade much riskier this way. Set alarms at the entry line and start to monitor the asset on 15-30M TF when alarm is triggered. If you follow me, I will try to update this trade, when my alarm rings. Wish you good luck.
PLong
by Rendon1
2