COCOA Every day, the world is getting poorer. Look in the stores what is done with the chocolate that is no longer bought. Easter eggs and bunnies are still on sale at a reduced price because people no longer buy chocolate, especially now in the warm season... In the summer, fruits will be in power! I predict COCOA to go downhill, below 4k. God bless you all!US Cocoa (CC) forum
COCOA Every day, the world is getting poorer. Look in the stores what is done with the chocolate that is no longer bought. Easter eggs and bunnies are still on sale at a reduced price because people no longer buy chocolate, especially now in the warm season... In the summer, fruits will be in power! I predict COCOA to go downhill, below 4k. God bless you all!
COCOA Equaterra ResearchCOT reports are out. (Click Here)
Week 22 (May 27, 2025)
After we processed over 2000+ pages of COT data, the latest Commitments of Traders confirms what we suspected: this pullback wasn’t a sign of bearish momentum—it was a calculated pause.
Commercials reduced both long and short positions by exactly 2,375 contracts. That kind of perfect symmetry is extremely structural. It signals neutral rebalancing, likely tied to contract rollovers or delivery-cycle positioning, meaning they’re not exiting, they’re holding the range.
Managed Money trimmed exposure modestly—longs down 1,432, shorts down 340, net long interest down 1,092. This follows last week’s $600 rally into a pull back and reflects profit-taking, not trend rejection. Total open interest only dipped 1.5%, suggesting this is controlled rotation, not liquidation.
Other large traders also trimmed risk across the board, and retail participation increased slightly on both sides—indicating indecision. Meanwhile, index fund positions remained unchanged, and options activity stayed flat. No heavy re-hedging. No structural change.
We noticed the matching -2,375 contract symmetry in commercial long and short reductions as one of the clearest rollover or delivery-period rebalancing signals possible. In the current context, it suggests no structural bearish shift, a market pausing to clear exposure before reaccumulating, and clear signs of positioning prep into June—especially now that May options have expired.
All signs point to consolidation and preparation. Volatility is likely early in the week, but June remains a bullish window. Institutions aren’t backing out yet—they’re reloading.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Cocoa’s 5% Dip Looks Like a Final Institutional ShakeoutThere’s been no real catalyst for cocoa’s sharp 5% drop — which makes it look like a textbook flush by institutions to settle May put options in the money.
Big money was content building exposure above $10K for weeks. But to profit from cheaper puts, they needed a fast move under $10K. That’s what this week looks like: a shakeout for premium collection, not a change in trend.
From April 29 to May 20, COT data shows three straight weeks of rising fund longs, with only a slight trim on May 6. If Friday’s COT shows another increase, it’ll confirm the funds dumped just enough to scare retail — and are now reloading.
June 1st brings margin requirement cuts for many brokers, which could fuel retail re-entry. If the COT aligns with that, we may see the next leg up kick off by Monday or Tuesday — unless weather flips sentiment again.
Contract Absorption Rate: 65% Complete
Equaterra Research
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Speculators increased longs by +5,730 and shorts by +2,682 which is a bullish tilt. Commercials added +1,990 shorts, signaling cautious hedging. Open interest jumped +7,533 to 104,424, marking strong market engagement.Strategic Read:
• Speculators are reloading — expect volatility.
• Commercials hedging — possible short-term ceiling.
• More liquidity = better trade efficiency.
We plan to stay in float preservation mode, harvesting volatility, and preparing for institutional positioning shifts as we approach June’s pivot.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA A bearish move may have just begun for $COCOA. From my perspective, this could mean a potential shift in momentum into a corrective phase. This is not a trade idea, or financial advice, only a forecast based on the current market. tradingview.com/x/4MZQkqaP/
COCOA So the ICCO saying “five months remain” isn’t just a neutral update, that’s coded for volatility’s not over yet.What they’re really saying:
Uncertainty = there’s still no clear fix. The supply squeeze is alive — they’re just not spelling it out.
Five months = May through September which lines up perfectly with the volatility window we researched among October.
Our research found that Q1 grind data looks bad in the charts, but it’s only down ~3.5% YoY better than a lot of 2022. This suggests that the ICCO isn’t predicting stability, but stalling. That means price discovery is still on and funds are likely using this report as cover to suppress a breakout, reload at discount, and rinse weak positions again.
I’ll be eager to see how this plays out, as I continue absorbing contracts at low prices.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA 2 da moon 🧨COCOA Although our research shows a bearish pullback is due, many bearish cocoa posts about Nigeria, South Sudan, and Papua New Guinea are premature. These remain highly speculative and years from having any meaningful impact. More likely, they're institutional sentiment plays not realities for this month. None threaten near-term supply on a macro-bullish scale. Soubre's rainfall is—and has been— misleading. Yes, 27mm was logged, but cumulative April/May rain remains far below the norm. Late rain does little if pod shrinkage has already set in and droughts have degraded soil quality. Even if production rises, ICE delivery standards, grading, and logistics remain major bottlenecks. Futures can't price beans they can't verify or ship. As for any $3,000/ton talk, it's noise. That's below breakeven and assumes a glut that doesn't exist. So vet everyone who posts here, including us if you like. You'd be surprised what you find. Funds are distorting sentiment to trap retail before the ICCO, let alone before the market even opens.Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Cocoa KingdomCOT reports are out. (Click Here)
Next week: Shorts eat. The week after: Bulls.
ICCO will likely serve as a manipulation pivot—after shorts extract enough liquidity, funds flip sides and begin prepping for July’s open interest war. I expect the usual subliminal shakeouts through June: pumps into aggressive drops that rinse liquidity but hold higher lows or don’t break them substantially/for long. Volatility ahead may rival crypto, penny stocks, or meme names, especially in July, October, and December.
I’ll be absorbing mid to end of next week into May and June for July’s “Open Interest War”
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy/sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Cocoa Kingdom COT Update (May 6–13)Speculators:
• Longs up +3,490
• Shorts down –467
• Net position now +20,868
Interpretation: Bullish conviction rising. Funds are leaning harder into the rally.
Commercials:
• Longs down –661
• Shorts up +5,187
• Net position now –27,022
Interpretation: Processors are hedging more aggressively, signaling price risk concerns.
Spreads:
• Modest increase (+732), suggesting more complex positioning.
Open Interest:
• Up +6,056 to 96,891
Interpretation: More participants. More volatility. More fuel.
Market Read:
Speculators are pressing the upside and commercials are preparing for it.
This is the kind of positioning spread that often precedes sharp continuation or violent reversal.
July is still the battleground