USCRUDEOILCFD trade ideas
WTIThis chart is focused on short-term ICT analysis, showing liquidity zones, displacement, and market structure shifts.
1. Smart Money Liquidity Grab at 63.59-64.61
This is an Expected Liquidity Pool.
ICT concepts suggest that institutions often engineer liquidity grabs at key support levels before reversing.
The area around 64.61 is a sell-side liquidity sweep, designed to trap retail shorts before Smart Money initiates a bullish move.
2. Market Structure Shift (MSS) at 68.53
A break above 68.53 is a bullish shift, signaling a change in trend.
Displacement with a fair value gap (FVG) around 68.53 confirms momentum.
If price reclaims 68.53, expect Smart Money to target buy-side liquidity at 79.32 and later 91.21.
3. Buying Zone & Smart Money Accumulation (75-77 Range)
Once price reaches 79.32, expect a retracement into the 75-77 range, allowing Smart Money to re-accumulate.
A break above 91.21 unlocks the potential for higher moves, aligning with the higher time frame Elliott Wave 5 targets.
Full Market post NFP Review: Pure Consolidation as expectedEverything seems to be at an inflection point with currencies taking the reigns for profitability 💪🏽 EU/GU are inversing the dollar really well as always with that strong direct correlation. This is why we at Hollywoood Trades believe in market diversity. It is good to understand what should happen and what will be the result of an out of sync indices and metal market vs. the currency direct correlation pairs.
Share with someone in need of strong levels 🎯
$CL_F: Oil forecastIt looks like energy is going to get cheaper after all, over time this can result in stimulus for the economy as prices fall, once they've fallen enough. The effect will be felt with some lag lasting a few months though.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
WTI Crude (USOil) The Week Ahead 10th March '25Sentiment: Bearish INTRADAY, Price action is consolidating in a tight trading range.
Resistance: Key Resistance is at 6870, followed by 6930 and 7000.
Support: Key support is at 6610 followed by 6540 and 6440.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
3 years supportThe price is once again meeting the support level that has remained unbroken for three years.
At this point, I expect a recovery towards the purple trendline, where there will be a new attempt at a bullish breakout.
The triangle is reaching the apex of compression.
USOIL On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 67.00
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 69.38
Recommended Stop Loss - 65.59
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USOIL with the target of 73.56 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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USOIL Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 66 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 66 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 7 March 2025
- WTI reversed from the multi-month support level 64.90
- Likely to rise to resistance level 68.60
WTI crude oil recently reversed sharply from the powerful multi-month support level 64.90, which stopped the previous sharp downtrend at the start of September.
The upward reversal from the support level 64.90 will likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the strength of the support level 64.90 and the oversold daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 68.60.
USOIL: Will oil prices continue to fall? Can I buy it?Dear trader friends, are you still curious whether you can buy USOIL or continue to short USOIL? Listen to Jack's opinion.
From the perspective of oil trends, it is still in an overall downward trend. USOIL is currently priced at 66.2 (based on Tradingview). From the news perspective, the short-term supply line has been blocked, which may cause an increase in oil demand and oil prices. Combined with the four-hour USOIL, a double bottom structure is formed. Therefore, the short-term comprehensive assessment is mainly buying, and attention is paid to whether the price of 67 can stand firm in the market. If the position of 67 stands firm, a rebound climax of 68-68.5 will be formed in the short term. Focus on the release of the "non-agricultural data" tomorrow.
Personal thoughts, for reference only. If you follow my signals or refer to my suggestions, remember to pay attention to the real-time notifications within the analysis circle. Convenient for subsequent operations or closing positions.
USDOIL: If trading, buy or sell?Dear traders, are you still wondering how to trade oil? Short or buy? Then take a look at Jack's ideas.
Friends who continue to pay attention will know. After issuing a buy order of 62 in the early morning, oil successfully reached the target above 70. This is profit. This is the precision. If you follow it, then you will definitely get the same profit. This is the effect of "exclusive signal".
USOIL: Under the influence of the news that the supply line of oil was interrupted, the price of USOIL came above the expected 67. If the position stabilizes, it will continue to hit the position of 68. Of course, the impact of non-agricultural data is also very critical. Combined with the current situation, it is the same as what I expected yesterday. Continue to be long. See if the target around 68.5-68 can be achieved.
Keep an eye on the real-time trading opportunities announced in the analysis circle every day. If you want to follow.
Oil bullish scenarioOil is on a big test in the $68.50 zone. With a break above, the chances for a retest of the $70.00 level increase. A little higher in the $71.00 zone, the EMA 200 moving average is approaching, which was an obstacle to further oil price recovery on the previous two occasions.
OIL DOWN TREND SOONThe chart shows WTI Crude Oil (CFDs) on a 1-hour timeframe. The price is currently facing resistance near 67.50, with a recent pullback towards the support level at 65.82. An order block is indicated around the 67.00 mark, suggesting a potential move down to the target of 65.82. Traders may look for confirmation of a downward movement for potential short entries.
WTI Crude INTRADAY Bearish below 6871Bearish Scenario:
WTI Crude remains in a bearish trend, with price action aligned with the prevailing longer-term downtrend. The key resistance level to watch is 68.71. If an oversold rally occurs but faces rejection at this level, the downtrend is likely to continue, targeting 66.50, followed by 66.08 and 65.75 as the next downside support zones over a longer timeframe.
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed breakout above 68.71 and a daily close above this level would invalidate the bearish outlook. This could trigger further upside movement, with resistance targets at 69.34, followed by the psychological 70.00 level.
Conclusion:
The broader outlook remains bearish, but 68.71 is the key pivot level. Rejection from this zone reinforces the downside bias, while a sustained breakout above it could shift momentum toward further gains. Traders should watch price action around this level to determine the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US CRUDE OIL(WTI): Price Action Trading📈USOIL may experience a reversal from an important daily support level.
The formation of a cup & handle pattern and a breakout above its neckline on a 4-hour chart suggest that the price is likely to rise.
The target price is 68.50.
WTI Oil H4 | Strong bearish momentumWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 68.46 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Stop loss is at 70.70 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 65.20 which is a swing-low support.
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US Light Crude (WTI) - Buy SetupTechnical Analysis:
The overall trend remains bearish, but the price has stalled at a major support level of 6568.7, corresponding to the September 2024 lows. WTI has been rangebound for several months, with the upper end of the range at 8044.3. Yesterday's Doji candle signals indecision, and today’s early move higher suggests potential upside. While speculative, the risk/reward setup appears attractive.
Fundamental Analysis:
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report indicates increasing long positions in Oil, suggesting that institutional investors ("Smart Money") may be accumulating around current levels.
Seasonal Trends:
Historically, between March 18 – May 21, Oil has delivered positive returns 76.47% of the time, with an average gain of 5.56% over the past 34 years.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 6630 – 6765
Stop Loss: 6462 (below the 2024 low at 6568)
Target: 8044 (upper end of the long-term range)
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer Program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
WTI OIL hit its 2-year Support. Major rebound possible.WTI Oil (USOIL) didn't fail us on our last bearish idea (February 20, see chart below), where we called the 1D MA50 rejection:
The decline didn't just hit our $69.00 Target but also broke below the medium-term Channel Up and entered the 2-year Support Zone.
The long-term dynamics should gradually start emerging now and the principle parameter is that every time this Support Zone gets hit, WTI starts strong medium-term rallies.
Technically (even on 1W MACD terms), the decline since mid January is very similar with the one of mid April 2023. Both were produced after another Support Zone rebound and before that a long-term Channel Down (red) preceded them.
As a result, we expect a strong rebound for at least the next 2 months, which (as in the case of Fractal 1) should initially target at least January's High at $80.50.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Oil analysis
There is a static level that used to be support and is now considered resistance.🕯
So if it breaks down, $67 could be a good buy.🔼
Crude Oil Prices: Double-Edged Sword for Indian Marketers
The global crude oil market, a volatile beast, dictates the energy landscape for nations worldwide.1 For India, a nation heavily reliant on oil imports, the fluctuations in crude oil prices carry significant implications.2 While a dip in crude oil prices might seem like a welcome relief, especially for consumers, it presents a complex and often challenging scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) operating within the Indian market. This seemingly beneficial drop in prices acts as a double-edged sword, bringing with it a unique set of complexities that stem from market dynamics, government policies, and the intrinsic characteristics of the oil and gas sector.3
The initial and seemingly positive impact of lower crude oil prices is the potential for reduced import costs.4 For a country like India, where a substantial portion of its energy needs are met through imports, this can lead to a decrease in the overall expenditure on crude oil. This reduction can, in turn, alleviate pressure on the nation's current account deficit and theoretically translate to lower fuel prices for consumers. However, this potential benefit is often overshadowed by the ever-present threat of government intervention through excise duty hikes.
Governments, seeking to bolster their revenue, often capitalize on falling crude oil prices by increasing excise duties on petrol and diesel.5 This strategic move allows them to capture a significant portion of the savings that would otherwise be passed on to consumers. For OMCs, this translates to a reduction in the potential for increased margins. While they still benefit from reduced raw material expenses, the extent of the gain is substantially diminished. This delicate dance between market forces and government policies creates a complex environment for OMCs to navigate.
Furthermore, the expectation of price cuts for end consumers becomes a significant challenge for OMCs. Consumers naturally anticipate a corresponding reduction in fuel prices when crude oil prices decline. However, OMCs must carefully balance this expectation with the need to maintain their financial health. Rapid and substantial price cuts can strain their profitability, especially when coupled with excise duty adjustments. This balancing act requires a delicate approach, as OMCs must ensure their financial stability while remaining responsive to consumer demands.
Beyond the immediate impact on OMCs, lower crude oil prices pose a significant challenge to the upstream oil and gas sector. Upstream companies, involved in exploration and production, are directly affected by the decline in realized prices for their crude oil. This can lead to reduced profitability, delayed or cancelled investment projects, and even financial distress for some companies. The economic viability of many oil and gas fields is contingent on a certain price threshold. When prices fall below this level, production becomes less attractive, potentially hindering future energy security.
The impact on the gas sector is particularly noteworthy. Natural gas economics are often intertwined with crude oil prices, with gas prices sometimes linked to oil price benchmarks.6 A decline in crude oil prices can thus indirectly affect gas prices, making gas production and distribution less profitable. This can have broader implications for the energy sector, as natural gas is increasingly seen as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels.7 Reduced investment in gas infrastructure and production can hinder the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix.
Moreover, the volatility associated with fluctuating crude oil prices creates uncertainty for OMCs and the entire energy sector.8 Long-term planning and investment decisions become more difficult when the market is subject to rapid and unpredictable price swings. This uncertainty can deter investment in new projects and hinder the development of a stable and reliable energy supply. This volatility necessitates a robust and adaptable strategy for OMCs to navigate the unpredictable market.
From a macroeconomic perspective, while lower crude prices can potentially stimulate economic activity by reducing fuel costs for businesses and consumers, the potential for reduced government revenue due to lower oil prices (if excise duties are not increased) must be considered. In a country like India, where government revenue is crucial for funding infrastructure projects and social programs, a significant decline in oil-related revenue can have far-reaching consequences. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, ensuring that government revenue remains stable while providing relief to consumers.
The challenges posed by lower crude oil prices highlight the need for a balanced and nuanced approach to energy policy. Governments must strike a delicate balance between providing relief to consumers, maintaining fiscal stability, and supporting the long-term health of the oil and gas sector. This requires careful consideration of excise duty adjustments, pricing mechanisms, and investment incentives. A coherent and forward-looking energy policy is essential to navigate the complexities of the global crude oil market and ensure the nation's energy security.
In conclusion, while lower crude oil prices may appear to be a boon, they present a complex set of challenges for OMCs and the broader Indian oil and gas sector. The potential for excise duty hikes, concerns about price cuts, and the impact on upstream realisations and gas economics create a double-edged sword scenario. Navigating this complex landscape requires careful policy decisions and a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics of the global energy market. OMCs must remain adaptable and resilient, while governments must implement policies that balance consumer needs with fiscal stability and long-term energy security.
CRUDE is looking weak. Price connection is expected#CRUDE #Analysis
Description
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+ Crude has formed a nice descending triangle pattern and price has broken down the support line which formed over the years.
+ A clear breakdown from this support would push down the prices further.
+ Next target is 50-40$ range.
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