Smart Money Play with Extreme POI MitigationTimeframe: 4H
Risk-Reward: 4.66R (~5R)
Entry Type: Smart Money Concept (SMC) Supply & Demand
In this trade, I took a buy position after identifying a bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe. I mapped out two Points of Interest (POIs):
1. A close POI – a nearer demand zone where I initially looked for a reaction.
2. An extreme POI – a deeper demand zone where price could mitigate before continuing bullish.
Trade Progression:
Initially, price tapped into the close POI but failed to hold, leading to liquidity sweep and stop-loss breach.
Price then moved further down to my extreme POI, where it found strong support and reversed.
A major news event on USD acted as a catalyst, driving price swiftly to my Take Profit (TP) level.
Key Takeaways:
✔ Liquidity Grab: The stop hunt at the close POI cleared weak buyers before moving in the intended direction.
✔ Extreme POI Respect: Smart money often mitigates deeper institutional zones before continuing trend direction.
✔ News-Driven Volatility: The USD event accelerated price movement, hitting my TP faster than expected (~5R trade).
This trade perfectly aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and liquidity dynamics, reinforcing the importance of patience and POI selection.
What’s your outlook on AUD/USD for the coming sessions? Share your thoughts below!
#AUDUSD #SMC #ForexTrading #Liquidity #POI #PriceAction #SmartMoney
USDAUD trade ideas
Australian dollar rally continues, Trump tariffs loomThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains for a second straight day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6306, up 0.47% on the day.
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on Tuesday, in a move that was widely expected by markets. Still, the Australian dollar reacted positively, gaining 0.48% on Tuesday.
The RBA statement noted that underlying inflation continued to ease in line with the Bank's forecast, but the Board "needs to be confident that this progress will continue" so that inflation remains sustainable at the midpoint of the 2%-3% target band. The statement said there was "significant" uncertainty over global trade developments, pointing to the threat of further US tariffs and possible counter-tariffs from targeted countries.
The central bank's decision was made in the midst of a hotly contested election campaign, and a rate cut would likely have been attacked by the opposition parties as political interference.
In a press conference after the meeting, Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the uncertainty over the global outlook due to US trade policy but sought to assure the markets by saying that Australia was "well placed" to weather the potential storm of a global trade war.
US President Trump has not specifically targeted Australia with any tariffs but China is Australia's number one trading partner and a US-China trade war would inflict damage on Australia's economy.
The new US tariffs are expected to be announced later today and take effect on Thursday. The financial markets remain volatile as investors look for some clarity from Washington about the tariffs, as it remains unclear which countries will be targeted and the extent of the tariff rates.
Falling towards pullback support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6270
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6236
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take profit: 0.6329
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.10%, citing uncertainties in leading economic indicators, including the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. Markets expect the RBA to cut rates in May.
- The Washington Post reported that White House staff have drafted a proposal to impose a 20% tariff on most U.S. imports.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the European Union has the power to negotiate with the U.S. and to retaliate if necessary.
- The March ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector has entered a contraction phase. Meanwhile, the February JOLTS Job Openings report showed 7.57 million job openings, missing market expectations, suggesting a gradual slowdown in the labor market. These two indicators hint at the formation of stagflation in the U.S. economy.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 2: U.S. March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
+ April 4: U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
With the market frozen ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, AUDUSD remains largely range-bound. Technically, a short-term rise to 0.63500 is likely, followed by a decline toward 0.60000. However, given potential variables, a breakout above 0.63500 is possible, which could extend gains toward 0.66000.
Potential bullish rise?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6261
1st Support: 0.6229
1st Resistance: 0.6322
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD/USD - Sell SetupThis pair has been showing us some choppy price action for a little while now with some small price movements but we are finally starting to see some movements
Higher Time frames show us a break of support as well as a breakout trade from this Liquidity Trend in the Long Term
The Short Term movement Im looking for will be price respecting this Supply zone and sweeping Buy Side Liquidity before taking out our protected Low. I will then refer to my entry model before entering
We currently have sellers momentum, also are below the 200 EMA
Good luck to the Traders that follow
Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Mon 31st March 25
5.00 pm (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 0.62668
Profit level 0.61308 (2.17%)
Stop level 0.63038 (0.59%)
RR 3.68
Reason: WMA (100) and EMA (50)
Observed for sellside directional bias
along with the price failing to make a
higher high.
Target 0.382 (PD Array)
4Hr TF overview
AUD_USD WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅AUD_USD is trading in an
Downtrend and the pair
Made a bearish breakout
Then made a retest and
Is going down now again
So we are bearish biased
And a bearish continuation
Is to be expected
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDUSD Triangle Break Looms on Tariff RiskAUDUSD is trading inside a triangle pattern that's been forming for 83 days. A break below 0.6215 could trigger a 188-pip drop, with a 3.82 risk-reward setup. While the RBA held rates at 4.1%, upcoming US tariffs on Liberation Day may pressure the Aussie. Fundamentals and technicals align for a potential bearish move.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
AUDUSD 4h Descending ChannelAUD/USD Analysis - April 1, 2025 (1H Timeframe)
Trend Overview
The pair is currently in a descending channel, forming lower highs and lower lows—indicating a downtrend.
Price has reached a strong demand zone (purple box) around 0.6240 - 0.6260, which has previously acted as support.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone (0.6240 - 0.6260)
If price holds and forms bullish price action (e.g., higher low, engulfing candle), we could see a reversal to the upside toward 0.6280 - 0.6300.
Bullish Confirmation: Break above 0.6260 and a close above the descending trendline.
Resistance Levels:
0.6260 (Immediate resistance & trendline rejection zone)
0.6280 - 0.6300 (Major resistance if the breakout happens)
Bearish Breakdown Scenario
If price fails to break 0.6260 and gets rejected at the trendline, it could lead to a drop toward 0.6220 - 0.6200.
Bearish Confirmation: A strong rejection from 0.6260 or a break below 0.6240.
Trade Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case (Reversal / Breakout)
Entry: Above 0.6260 with confirmation (trendline breakout)
Target 1: 0.6280
Target 2: 0.6300
Stop Loss: Below 0.6235
🔻 Bearish Case (Continuation of Downtrend)
Entry: On rejection at 0.6260 or breakdown below 0.6240
Target 1: 0.6220
Target 2: 0.6200
Stop Loss: Above 0.6270
Conclusion
Watch for price action at 0.6260. A breakout = bullish move, rejection = bearish continuation.
Bias: Neutral for now, waiting for confirmation.
No Rate Hike, No Mercy – AUD/USD Selling in Style!Riding the wave of bearish structure, AUD/USD continues to follow the macro trend with laser precision. After the RBA held rates steady, we’re seeing the typical post-news dump play out—fueled by the market’s disappointment and reduced sentiment.
Technically, price respected the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and showed strong displacement to the downside, confirming continuation.
Key Targets:
🔻 0.62311 – Minor liquidity
🔻 0.62185 – 1H Sell-side liquidity
🔻 0.61703 – Ultimate short-term sell-side target
Expecting the market to bleed lower unless major fundamentals flip the bias. Until then... the trend is your bestie.
DYOR 🧠📉
AUDUSD SELL 0.6280On the daily chart, AUDUSD fluctuated downward, and the bears had the upper hand. At present, you can pay attention to the resistance near 0.6280. If the rebound encounters resistance, you can consider continuing to sell. The support below is around 0.6190. If it falls below, it will go to around 0.6100. If the price breaks through the resistance near 0.6330, it will start to rise.
RBA Holds Their Cash Rate, May Cut Neither Confirmed Nor DeniedThe RBA held their cash rate at 4.1%, and keep a May cut up in the air without any appetite to commit to one. I highlight my observations on the RBA's statement, before updating my analysis for AUD/USD, AUD/CAD and GBP/AUD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com