AUDUSD SellAUDUSD SELL After LDN Killzone and moving towards 4h +FVG present below giving us 1:7 Risk:Reward Ratio... Let's see how the trade plays out!
USDAUD trade ideas
AUD: A hawkish cut by the RBAThe Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years this morning, matching consensus and market expectations. The 25bp reduction was accompanied by some rather hawkish remarks by Governor Michele Bullock, both in the statement and in the press conference.
Bullock seemed to focus on pushing back against the dovish repricing in the AUD curve, reiterating that the focus remains firmly on inflation risk. That approach is in contrast with those of other developed central banks (including the neighbouring Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which should cut 50bp this week) which have shifted towards growth concerns.
Markets are pricing just under two cuts in Australia by the end of 2025, while we have a slightly more dovish forecast with one cut per quarter (three in total). Bullock’s cautious tone on further easing has allowed AUD to counter the USD rebound this morning. That said, we doubt markets are ready to shift expectations to only one RBA cut this year, and AUD’s high exposure to the trade story and risk sentiment may quickly overcome any short-term benefits from the RBA’s tone today.
We still think a return to 0.62 in AUD/USD is warranted by the end of March, with further downside risks in the second and third quarters when US protectionism may intensify.
AUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High After RBA DecisionAUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High After RBA Decision
Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eased monetary policy, cutting the interest rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, according to Forex Factory.
As reported by Reuters:
→ This marks the first easing since the 2020 pandemic;
→ RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that market expectations for two more cuts this year are “ambitious”;
→ The bank’s leadership remains cautious about further easing prospects.
While analysts had accurately predicted the February rate cut, AUD/USD saw volatility without a significant move, possibly because market participants are more focused on Trump’s tariff plans, which could impact global trade and Forex markets.
Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Today
Since mid-December, the AUD/USD pair has mostly traded within the 0.6200–0.6300 range, except for early February’s sharp drop when Trump’s tariff policies shook currency markets.
However, demand appears resilient:
→ After plunging to around 0.6100, the price quickly rebounded into the range;
→ Arrows highlight rapid recoveries after short-term dips;
→ A blue ascending trend channel is forming on the chart.
These factors suggest growing appeal for the Australian dollar, with the 0.6300 level potentially acting as support going forward.
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AUD/USD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD-USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.625 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
AUDUSD Bullish AUD/USD has successfully broken a strong resistance level, signaling bullish momentum. After the breakout, we may see a retracement to the previous resistance area, which could now act as support before the next leg up. If buyers continue stepping in, further upside movement is expected.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support: Retesting the previous resistance zone
✅ Bullish Confirmation: Holding above support could fuel further upside
Always follow proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades
analysis based on smc and support amnd resisitence price actionsharing my view and my analysis for this pair
only educational purpose feel free to copy it for yourself basically posting for my data
The RBA just cut by 25bp: Instant ViewThe RBA have just cut their cash rate for the first time since late 2020. Using their monetary policy statement and updated forecast, I provide my instant high-level view of what this could mean fir future policy - with an update to my AUD/USD outlook thrown in for good measure.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6301
1st Support: 0.6259
1st Resistance: 0.6376
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AUD: a hawkish cut from the RBA?We continue to expect the RBA to start its rate cutting cycle with a hawkish 25bp rate cut on Tuesday. Australian trimmed mean inflation surprised the central bank 20bp to the downside coming out at 3.2% YoY in Q4. On a 6M annualised basis, trimmed mean inflation is running close to the centre of the central bank’s 2-3% target band. Household consumption appears to be picking up following income tax cuts and the introduction of the government’s cost-of-living measures, but recent retail sales have been given a boost by Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and consumption likely remains soft.
While Australia’s labour market remains tight with an unemployment rate of 4%, the RBA will likely lower its estimate of NAIRU from 4.25% to around 4% given that wage inflation is coming off despite the stubbornly low unemployment rate. The central bank should also lower its inflation and growth forecasts to justify its rate cut. While the RBA may want to hold off for another quarterly inflation print to be more confident, inflation is coming sustainably back within its 2-3% target band, waiting until after the Q1 inflation data on 30 April would mean the central bank would be very likely be cutting rates during a Federal election.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock will manage households’ expectations, however, in her press conference and parliamentary committee hearing later this week. She will point to a likely shallow rate cutting cycle for several reasons. First, rental inflation while coming lower as immigration slows is coming off high levels. Construction of rental properties is occurring at a snail’s pace.
Second, fiscal policy will continue working against monetary policy during an election year, the ALP and opposition Liberal-National Party coalition (LNP) have already pledged over AUD10bn in additional spending; and the official election campaign has not even started. Third, trade frictions and tariffs generated by the administration of President Donald Trump will add to international inflation pressures in Australia. The US economy also remains robust and there is a growing risk of the FOMC not cutting rates any further. A strong US economy is good news for the Australian economy and will also limit RBA rate cuts. At 4.35%, the RBA’s cash rate is not far above the RBA’s central estimate of neutral of around 3.50%. With the market about 85% priced for a 25bp cut by the RBA this week, the kneejerk reaction in the AUD will be lower, but then the focus will be on Bullock’s rhetoric. We continue to look for just 75-100 bp worth of rate cuts by the RBA in 2025 and this is in line with current market pricing. Australian wages and labour market data out later in the week hold further volatility for the AUD.
AUDUSDHere's how the anticipated Australian economic data releases may affect the AUD/USD trade directional bias today by 4;30am
Key Data Releases and Potential Impacts:
(1)Cash Rate (Forecast 4.10%, Previous 4.35%):
Lower than Forecast (AUD Negative): If the actual cash rate is lower than the forecast of 4.10%, it would indicate a more dovish stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), suggesting concerns about economic growth. This would likely weaken the AUD, leading to a potential decline in the AUD/USD.
As Expected (Neutral to Slightly AUD Negative): If the cash rate matches the forecast of 4.10%, the impact might be neutral, but the AUD could still face some downward pressure because it confirms the RBA is easing monetary policy.
Higher than Forecast (AUD Positive): An unexpected hold or increase in the cash rate would signal a hawkish RBA, strengthening the AUD and potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD.
(2)RBA Monetary Policy Statement & RBA Rate Statement:
These statements provide context and reasoning behind the RBA's interest rate decisions and offer insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy intentions.
Dovish Statements (AUD Negative): If the statements express concerns about economic growth, highlight downside risks, or signal further rate cuts, the AUD would likely weaken, pushing the AUD/USD lower.
Hawkish Statements (AUD Positive): If the statements convey confidence in the economy, emphasize inflation control, or suggest a willingness to raise rates if needed, the AUD would likely strengthen, potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD.
(3)Factors Influencing AUD/USD Directional Bias:
Interest Rate Differentials: The difference between the interest rates set by the RBA and the US Federal Reserve influences the AUD/USD. If the Federal Reserve were to increase the interest rate, money may flow into the US strengthening the US dollar, and consequently weakening the AUD/USD rate.
(4)US Economic Data and Fed Policy: The anticipation is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates going forward.
(5)China's Economic Conditions: China's weaker-than-expected reports fuel global growth concerns and limit the demand of "risk" currencies like the Aussie.
(6)Commodity Prices: AUD/USD is behaving like a cyclical risk asset, showing relationships with crude oil
Potential Scenarios and Trade Implications:
Dovish RBA, Hawkish Fed: This scenario could create a bearish backdrop for AUD/USD.
Technical Considerations: AUD/USD is finding support from a major area of interest at 0.61451 support,it may see enough demand to revisit the the supply roof aand if it breaks it to the moon,
AU ShortPossible sell trade. Sell in the supply zone to buy into the demand zone.
Let's see how it goes!
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 17 February 2025
- AUDUSD broke the resistance zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400
AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.6320 (which stopped the previous minor correction iv) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2.
AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6400 (former strong support from April and August of 2024).
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of RBA DesicionThe Australian dollar has been rising, gaining around 1.5% over the past three sessions against the U.S. dollar. The current bullish movement continues as the market awaits the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision in the coming hours. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points , bringing the new rate to 4.1%.
However, the market has already priced in this decision, as expectations for a rate cut have been consistent for several days. This has allowed upward momentum to persist, as any bearish reaction to the RBA's move may have already been absorbed into the price.
Additionally, as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, Australia's economic ties with China have strengthened, boosting confidence in the region and supporting a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar.
Breakout from Sideways Range
Until recently, AUD/USD had been trading within a key range, with resistance at 0.62923 and support at 0.61929. But the recent bullish move has broken through this resistance, leading to stronger buying pressure in the short term.
As long as price remains above the upper boundary of this range, the Australian dollar could maintain its upward momentum in the near term.
RSI Indicator: Overbought Signals?
Not everything is bullish, as the RSI indicator is now approaching 70, the overbought zone.
If the RSI remains above this level for the next few sessions, it could signal an imbalance between buyers and sellers, as well as the potential for short-term selling corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.61929 – Distant Support: Lower boundary of the previous range.
Frequent price oscillations at this level could revive the previous downtrend seen since September 2024.
0.62923 – Key Support: Aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A tentative level where short-term bearish corrections could occur.
0.64323 – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the bullish bias pushes price toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a stronger uptrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 17 - 21 FebruaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, UK and Canada’s Inflation, Metals, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Canada’s Inflation Rate
- UK Inflation Rate
- Precious Metals Price Fluctuations
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
AUDUSD Long1)Trend defined. 4h uptrend.
2)Contradictory limit order entry. At a previous key level after a pullback move.
3)Default loss. Below the 2nd lowest key level.
4)Default target level. 4.71.
5)Risk <= 3%.
6)Singular trade.
7)Trades placed today <= 5.
AUDUSD – Early Focus on the RBA Last week AUDUSD rallied 2% from opening levels around 0.6230 on Monday to a Friday close at 0.6355, as tariff fatigue saw FX traders reduce dollar longs across the board into the weekend.
At the start of this new trading week, the direction of AUDUSD is likely to be determined by local events, with the RBA convening early on Tuesday morning (0330 GMT) to potentially cut interest rates for the first time in nearly 4 years.
Just as relevant could be the tone of comments from RBA Governor Bullock in the press conference, which starts at 0430 GMT.
Given the market is currently pricing in around 75bps of total RBA easing for 2025, her views regarding the pace of future cuts will be important, especially if they shift the market outlook either way in this regard.
Also important will be her comments on inflation, employment and the threat of what a potential trade war between the US and Australia’s most important trading partner China, could mean for Australia’s economy moving forward.
Against this backdrop for potential AUDUSD volatility assessing the technical outlook can also be helpful.
Technical Assessment:
Since the start of February AUDUSD has enjoyed a period of strength that has broken above some of its immediate resistance levels.
This has seen a sustained phase of strength materialise from the February 3rd low at 0.6087, a move that has been able to breach resistance marked by the upper extremes of the downtrend channel which has be in place since it registered a high of 0.6942 on September 30th (see chart above), and which was last touched when a high of 0.6331 traded on January 24th.
While this breakout is no guarantee of continued price strength, it does highlight the potential for further attempts to extend recent upside moves.
What are the Possible Resistance Levels to Watch if Further Upside Strength is Seen?
Fibonacci retracement levels can mark resistance areas where there is potential for sellers to be found again. The 38.2% retracement of the September 30th to February 3rd AUDUSD price weakness stands at 0.6414 and may prove to be a possible level that may cap the current advance.
However, if this wasn’t to be the case and successful closing upside breaks were seen, then the higher 50% retracement point at 0.6515 could well become more relevant.
What Supports Should be Monitored if Prices Reverse Back Lower?
Of course, after what has already been a sustained move higher during February, it’s possible that corrections could materialise ahead of the rate announcement, in response to the decision itself or something that is said in the press conference. If that were to be the case then traders may be watching the 0.6302 level, which is equal to half the rally from last week’s low, as the first support.
While this level holds any price weakness, it’s possible further attempts at upside strength could emerge again, however closing breaks below this level might suggest risks are emerging for a more extended phase of price weakness.
Such moves could in turn point to tests of potential support at 0.6264, which is the 38.2% retracement of February’s price strength and if were to give ways, then the next support which stands at 0.6230 (deeper 50% level on chart above), could become relevant.
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#AUDUSD 4HAUDUSD (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming an expanding pattern, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty in market direction. Additionally, a sell engulfing candlestick has appeared, suggesting strong bearish momentum and potential downside movement.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is anticipated as the expanding pattern, combined with the sell engulfing area, signals increased selling pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A sell position can be considered near the recent resistance area where the sell engulfing pattern has formed.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the recent swing high to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target lower support levels for potential downside movement.
Market Sentiment:
The formation of an expanding pattern with a sell engulfing candlestick suggests that bearish pressure is increasing. Monitoring price action and confirmation signals before entry will help align with the prevailing trend.
sell signal for audusdi see potential base on audusd h4, and then make confirmation on lower timeframe...i plan for sell position with ration 1:5
Buy audusd Here little buy resistance trend line
Just wait to break it then enter into buy with LTF confirmation
EURUSD and AUDUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis PointsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet this Tuesday and is widely anticipated to deliver its first rate cut in four years amid easing inflationary pressures. I am ‘reasonably’ convinced that the central bank will reduce the Cash Rate this week, a belief based on inflation and growth data that delivered prints south of the RBA’s recent projections (released on 5 November 2024).
Following nine consecutive meetings on hold, markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the RBA will reduce the Cash Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% from 4.35% (per the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate futures). Markets are also pricing for an additional 50 bps of cuts by the year-end, lowering the Cash Rate to 3.6%.
I am not holding my breath for anything illuminating to come out of the RBA’s accompanying rate statement and press conference. I believe we will see the Board underscore a cautious tone, echoing the ‘data dependent’ approach. The central bank will likely shine the spotlight on the disinflation progress but stop short of providing anything concrete to signal further cuts.
The RBA will also release their detailed quarterly updated forecasts on growth (GDP ), unemployment, inflation, and the Cash Rate. Traders will look at these metrics closely for any revisions. I expect slightly lower revisions to GDP and inflation, but I do not see much change in forecasts for the Cash Rate.
Inflation and GDP: Main Drivers Behind a Rate Cut
In Q2 24, headline Australian inflation came in lower than expected, decelerating to 2.4% (from 2.8% in Q3 24) and marking the lowest quarterly reading since early 2021. This not only places headline inflation within the lower boundary of the RBA’s inflation target band of 2-3%, but the trimmed mean inflation rate – the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – also exhibited signs of softness, cooling to within touching distance of the RBA’s upper target band (3.0%) at 3.2% in Q4 24 (year-on-year ) from 3.5% in Q3 24.
GDP cooled to 0.8% in Q3 24 (YY), down from 1.0% in Q2 24 and marked the slowest pace of economic growth since late 2020. Quarterly (Q3 24), GDP grew by 0.3%, following a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter (Q2 24).
However, while inflation is trending in the right direction and growth remains subdued – providing some legroom for the RBA to cut the Cash Rate this week – the central bank’s easing cycle will likely be slow and steady this year. Coupled with underlying inflation trending just north of the RBA’s inflation target, the central bank still faces a reasonably solid jobs market. Employment increased by 56,300, comfortably surpassing the market’s median estimate of 15,000 and was above November’s revised reading of 28,200, and wage growth remains steady.
AUD/USD Shaking Hands with Resistance
The AUD/USD currency pair (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) finished last week locking horns with daily resistance between US$0.6417 and US$0.6364 (this area comprises several ratios , a horizontal resistance level, and an ascending resistance extended from US$0.6170).
What is also interesting is the approach to the above-noted resistance could prompt sellers to enter the fray this week. Following a lower low of US$0.6088 in early February, this likely encouraged breakout selling. With these orders now flushed out of the market (bear trap) and the recent higher high (US$0.6368) potentially exciting buyers, this, coupled with price testing resistance last week, could be a bull trap in the making to push things lower.
uptrendIt is expected that the upward trend will continue until the specified resistance levels are formed. Then, depending on the price behavior in the specified time frame, there will be a possibility of a trend change.
AUDUSD Weekly BiasThis pair is now on a bullish run considering that;
1. We had a liquidity grab at 0.61 Zone.
2. Market Structure Shift at 0.633.
The pair might aim towards the Buyside Liquidity at 0.655 and our entry positions might be around the 0.63 Zone.
