AUDUSD STRONG FALL SOON OPPORTUNITY 1. Breakout Above Resistance
The analysis assumes a rejection at the resistance zone, leading to a downtrend. However, if bullish momentum builds, the price could break above resistance, invalidating the sell-off expectation.
2. Support Might Not Hold
The marked support zone might be weak if there is strong bearish sentiment, leading to a potential breakdown rather than a reversal from that level.
3. Range-bound Market
Instead of a clear breakout or breakdown, AUD/USD might stay within a sideways range, consolidating between support and resistance rather than making a decisive move.
4. Fundamental Factors
Economic data releases, central bank policies, or geopolitical events could override this technical setup, causing unexpected price movements in either direction.
USDAUD trade ideas
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 26/02/2025Last week the Judas Swing strategy had another action-packed week! As we took four trades across our selected currency pairs ( FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , FX:EURUSD , OANDA:NZDUSD ), securing two wins and two losses, but still closing the week with a solid 2% gain.
Given the strategy’s consistency over the past few weeks and months, we were eager to see how it would perform this week. On Monday, we waited for a setup on FX:EURUSD , but it fell just a few pipettes short of meeting all the criteria on our checklist. Since one key requirement wasn’t met, we stayed disciplined and skipped the trade. Now, here’s the important part—although that trade ended up being a winner, it didn’t bother us. Why? Because it didn’t align with our strategy, and we don’t risk our hard-earned money on trades that don’t check all the boxes. If you find yourself entering random trades, it’s time to create a checklist and stick to it. Discipline is what separates consistent traders from gamblers.
Fast forward to Wednesday, we spotted a promising setup on FX:AUDUSD and we were eager to see how the session would unfold. After a sweep of liquidity at the lows, our focus immediately shifted to potential buying opportunities. Once we got a break of structure to the upside, all that was left was a retrace into the FVG before executing the trade. But patience was key—we reminded ourselves of Monday’s setup, where a similar scenario played out, yet the retrace never came. That trade had to be left behind, and we weren’t about to force an entry this time either
Finally, price retraced into the FVG, and as soon as that candle closed, we were ready to execute the trade. We risk 1% per trade with the goal of securing a 2% return ensuring our wins outweigh our losses over time. With this strategy’s win rate hovering around 50%, sticking to our rules keeps us on the path to long-term profitability
After entering the trade, we experienced a slight drawdown for less than five minutes, dipping just 2 pips nothing out of the ordinary. Our entry candle had closed in our intended direction, so we stayed patient. Soon after, price moved decisively in our favor, hitting our target in just 1 hour and 10 minutes. Our patience paid off this time with a solid 2% return on a trade where we had only risked 1%.
AUDUSD Buy zone. After Market structure shift in 4H and Daily shift now price is taking a way down to the point of interest (liquidity zone) in this zone there is 4H liquidity engineer as well as five minute Liquidity Engineer.
The price is predicted to tap into liquidity engeneer and move to the bullish direction.
The trade can be taken directly, or one can wait for change of structure in lower time frame and enter.
I wish you all the best.
AUD/USD dip could be nearing its inflection pointAfter a 3-week rally which stalled around the 64c handle with a shooting star candle, a pullback was almost inevitable. but we have already seen AUD/USD fall for four consecutive days, and recent history shows its bearish streaks tend to max out at five down days. Given support is nearby and the AU-US 2-year yield is rising, I am now seeking a swing low around the 0.62750 - 0.6300 area for at least a minor bounce.
But if the recent swing low on the US dollar index gives way, perhaps something much bigger.
A break above 0.6420 opens up a run to 0.6500.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6324
1st Support: 0.6259
1st Resistance: 0.6367
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AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure)
✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce
Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly.
The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone.
📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions
🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions.
🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped.
🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March.
📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability.
🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup.
🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry.
🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone.
👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments!
🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
AUD/USD drops to test key support after weak Aussie CPIThe AUD/USD has fallen about 0.5% on the session, making it among the weakest of currency pairs so far in today's session. We had some weaker data from Australia overnight in the form of CPI, coming in at 2.5% vs. 2.6% eyed, and construction work done was half the expected rate at 0.5% q/q.
The focus will turn to the US side of the equation as we head deeper into the week with GDP, Core PCE and a few other data releases to come.
From a technical viewpoint, the AUD/USD is testing a key support zone around 0.6300, which needs to hold on a closing basis to keep the bulls happy. This level was resistance and could turn into support given the recent bullish price action. Here, the 21-day exponential average also comes into focus.
If we see a nice rebound here, this could set the stage for a continuation towards 0.6400 and then 0.6500 thereafter. Let's await a bullish reversal here before potentially looking for setups, at least on the lower time frames.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DeGRAM | AUDUSD came out of the channelAUDUSD is above the descending channel between the trend lines.
The price has already consolidated above the descending channel and is now moving from the dynamic resistance.
The chart is approaching the dynamic support, which previously acted as a growth point.
We expect the growth to continue after the retest of the lower trend line.
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AUDUSD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.632.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.640.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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AUD/USD Trade Setup: Long from Key SupportAUD/USD is testing a major support zone around 0.632, where buyers could step in for a potential bounce. However, if support breaks, I might close early to avoid downside risk.
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Entry: Near 0.632 - 0.631 (Support Zone)
🎯 Profit Target (Blue Zone): 0.640 - 0.641
🛑 Stop-Loss (Yellow Zone): Below 0.631
🔹 Market Outlook:
📊 Bullish Bias (Conditional) – Price is at a historically strong support zone. A clear breakout above the downward trendline could push AUD/USD higher.
⚠️ Early Exit Plan – If price fails to hold 0.631, I’ll close the trade early and reassess.
Guide for Execution:
✅ No Martingale Strategy: Keeping position sizes equal for risk management.
✅ Monitor Breakout Behavior: If price shows weakness at support, I won’t hold unnecessarily.
Will this support hold and trigger a reversal, or is AUD/USD about to break lower? Let me know your thoughts! 👇
AUD/USD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD-USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.614 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
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Aussie H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Aussie (AUD/USD) ) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6323 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6290 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6376 which is a swing-high resistance.
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AudUsd Trade IdeaAU seems to be respecting the higher time frame daily resistance level. I’m personally waiting on price to break from the range & shift structures. We can either expect price to crash below confirming the respect of the daily resistance or wait on the shift for buys where targets could be around the daily resistance. I’m personally waiting on shorts ! We’ll see what happens with news tomorrow.