USDAUD trade ideas
AUD/USD dip could be nearing its inflection pointAfter a 3-week rally which stalled around the 64c handle with a shooting star candle, a pullback was almost inevitable. but we have already seen AUD/USD fall for four consecutive days, and recent history shows its bearish streaks tend to max out at five down days. Given support is nearby and the AU-US 2-year yield is rising, I am now seeking a swing low around the 0.62750 - 0.6300 area for at least a minor bounce.
But if the recent swing low on the US dollar index gives way, perhaps something much bigger.
A break above 0.6420 opens up a run to 0.6500.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6324
1st Support: 0.6259
1st Resistance: 0.6367
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AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure)
✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce
Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly.
The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone.
📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions
🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions.
🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped.
🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March.
📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability.
🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup.
🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry.
🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone.
👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments!
🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
AUD/USD drops to test key support after weak Aussie CPIThe AUD/USD has fallen about 0.5% on the session, making it among the weakest of currency pairs so far in today's session. We had some weaker data from Australia overnight in the form of CPI, coming in at 2.5% vs. 2.6% eyed, and construction work done was half the expected rate at 0.5% q/q.
The focus will turn to the US side of the equation as we head deeper into the week with GDP, Core PCE and a few other data releases to come.
From a technical viewpoint, the AUD/USD is testing a key support zone around 0.6300, which needs to hold on a closing basis to keep the bulls happy. This level was resistance and could turn into support given the recent bullish price action. Here, the 21-day exponential average also comes into focus.
If we see a nice rebound here, this could set the stage for a continuation towards 0.6400 and then 0.6500 thereafter. Let's await a bullish reversal here before potentially looking for setups, at least on the lower time frames.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DeGRAM | AUDUSD came out of the channelAUDUSD is above the descending channel between the trend lines.
The price has already consolidated above the descending channel and is now moving from the dynamic resistance.
The chart is approaching the dynamic support, which previously acted as a growth point.
We expect the growth to continue after the retest of the lower trend line.
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AUDUSD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.632.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.640.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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AUD/USD Trade Setup: Long from Key SupportAUD/USD is testing a major support zone around 0.632, where buyers could step in for a potential bounce. However, if support breaks, I might close early to avoid downside risk.
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Entry: Near 0.632 - 0.631 (Support Zone)
🎯 Profit Target (Blue Zone): 0.640 - 0.641
🛑 Stop-Loss (Yellow Zone): Below 0.631
🔹 Market Outlook:
📊 Bullish Bias (Conditional) – Price is at a historically strong support zone. A clear breakout above the downward trendline could push AUD/USD higher.
⚠️ Early Exit Plan – If price fails to hold 0.631, I’ll close the trade early and reassess.
Guide for Execution:
✅ No Martingale Strategy: Keeping position sizes equal for risk management.
✅ Monitor Breakout Behavior: If price shows weakness at support, I won’t hold unnecessarily.
Will this support hold and trigger a reversal, or is AUD/USD about to break lower? Let me know your thoughts! 👇
AUD/USD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD-USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.614 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
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Aussie H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Aussie (AUD/USD) ) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6323 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6290 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6376 which is a swing-high resistance.
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AudUsd Trade IdeaAU seems to be respecting the higher time frame daily resistance level. I’m personally waiting on price to break from the range & shift structures. We can either expect price to crash below confirming the respect of the daily resistance or wait on the shift for buys where targets could be around the daily resistance. I’m personally waiting on shorts ! We’ll see what happens with news tomorrow.
AUDUSD FORECASTTrades! We have AUDUSD On board, however, this pair is not looking more clear. We need to be a little bit patient waiting for the market to give us clear picture of what it needs to do next.
As a trader you must understand the time that you need to be out of the market. You can't trade every single scenario that you see in the market you need to understand well what you need to see in the market before you capitalize
AUDUSD InsightGreetings to all subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a potential candidate for German Chancellor, held a 1.5-hour meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. During the discussion, they explored ways to bypass strict national debt limits and increase defense spending.
- The U.S. February CB Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7 points from the previous month to 98.3, raising concerns about stagflation as it coincided with a sharp rise in 12-month inflation expectations.
- ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated, "We can no longer confidently say that our policy is restrictive."
Key Economic Events This Week
+ February 27: U.S. Q4 GDP
+ February 28: Germany February CPI, U.S. January PCE Price Index
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
As anticipated last week, after surpassing the 0.63000 level, AUDUSD climbed to the 0.64000 resistance area, where it is now facing downward pressure. If this decline is short-term, the 0.63000 level should hold. However, if it fails to do so, a further drop toward the 0.60000 level is likely.
On the other hand, if an upward move breaks through the 0.64000 level, the pair may establish a new high around 0.66000.
AU Bullish Play - Multi-Timeframe Precision 4H is running bullish after breaking a major HH. I spotted an IDM, but mitigation to the 4H OB looked like it could take days or even weeks. Instead of waiting, I dropped to the 30M to hunt for bullish continuation.
On the 30M, price was still pushing, but I needed refinement. Spotted a major IDM from the 2H, then dropped back to the 30M to locate near-term structure. Instead of a clear OB, order flow stepped in—wicking into refined 15M levels. That was my cue.
Dropped to the 5M and waited for a clean CHoCH confirmation. Price followed through strong, locking in my entry. Now the 30M is pushing through, confirming bullish intent. TP is mapped—now it’s just execution and trade management.
When you stack timeframes the right way, the market lays out the moves for you. Let’s see how this one plays out.
#SMC #Forex #AUDUSD #OrderFlow #MultiTimeframeAnalysis
Bless Trading!..
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support ad could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6324
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6301
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6373
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.