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USDAUD trade ideas

Ghost's AUD/USD Long Setup (Shorter Term Targets)AUD/USD has now seen a 350+ rally off the lows with no substantial pullback. A lot of the time this kind of price action occurs on AU, it tends to extend a lot further than most traders predict but also not to the overly bullish targets retail traders will spout off like 70+ cents. While I think a revisit to the lows before a long-term bullrun can be seen for AU is likely, I'm aware that price is indicating it's looking for a healthy correction before target the .65 zone, which is the POC for the higher time frames we broke down from weeks ago with no retest. For these reason and the general understanding of price action and market structure I see a lot on AUD/USD, I'm bullish in the short-term if we can get a steeper pullback to the .629 area after taking profits on my shorts for 50+ pips around .635. Best of luck team, Ghost Traders FX now for the year of 2025 has 25 wins in a row, almost 500+ pips gained, 0 losses, improving our overall core strategy results to 135 Wins, 18 Breakevens, 7 losses pulling our WR back to 95%+ Feel good to be trading at my best agian.
Long
by Ghost_Traders_FX
AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry. 💡 Entry Details: ✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone) ✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure) ✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target) ✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅ 2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences 📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly. The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone. 📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions 🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions. 🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped. 🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD. 🕵️‍♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long 📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March. 📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias. 📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum ✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart ✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288) ✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum 3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade 🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability. 🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup. 🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry. 🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade. 📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD? 🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone. 👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
Long
by LDForex_
AUDUSD LongAUDUSD Analysis (H4, Long Position): 1. Current Context: At 0.63862, AUDUSD is likely near a lower range, possibly testing a support zone after a downtrend driven by USD strength or weaker Australian/Chinese economic sentiment. On H4, this could signal a potential reversal or consolidation before the next move. 2. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: The current price of 0.63862 might be near a key support zone, likely around 0.6350–0.6380. This could align with a historical low, the 200-period EMA, or a Fibonacci retracement (e.g., 78.6% from a prior swing up). Resistance: The next resistance could be around 0.6450–0.6470, a level that may correspond to a prior swing high, the 50-period EMA, or a psychological barrier. 3. Technical Indicators: Moving Averages (EMA): If the price is below the 50 EMA (e.g., near 0.6450) but approaching the 200 EMA (possibly around 0.6380), a bounce off the 200 EMA could signal bullish potential. A 50 EMA crossover above the 200 EMA would confirm a trend shift. RSI (14): If RSI is near oversold levels (below 30) or rising from 30–40, it suggests fading bearish momentum and a possible reversal. Volume: Look for a spike in volume at 0.63862 or slightly below, indicating buyer interest at this support. 4. Patterns: At 0.63862, H4 might show a bullish reversal pattern, like a "Double Bottom" near 0.6350–0.6380 or a "Hammer" candle after a downtrend, hinting at a bounce to 0.6450. Alternatively, if the price is consolidating, a breakout above a short-term descending trendline (e.g., near 0.6400) could trigger a long entry. 5. Long Position Scenario: Entry Point: If the price holds 0.63862 or dips to 0.6350–0.6370 and shows bullish confirmation (e.g., a strong bullish candle, engulfing pattern, or rejection of lower levels), enter a long position. Stop-Loss: Place the stop below support, e.g., at 0.6330, to account for a potential breakdown. Take-Profit: First target at 0.6450 (60–80 pips profit), second target at 0.6470 if momentum builds. Risk/Reward Ratio: With a 20–30 pip stop and a first target of 60–80 pips, you get a 1:2 to 1:3 ratio, which is favorable. 6. Fundamental Factors: AUDUSD at 0.63862 likely reflects USD strength (e.g., Fed hawkishness) or AUD weakness (e.g., softer commodity prices, Chinese demand concerns). A reversal could be spurred by positive Australian data (e.g., employment), a dovish US shift, or commodity price recovery. Check TradingView’s "Economic Calendar" for RBA or US events.
Long
by Trade_Hive_Signals
#AUDUSD 1DAYAUDUSD (4H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price has been in a downtrend but has now broken above the downtrend resistance, signaling a potential shift in market direction. A breakout from this level suggests that buyers are gaining strength, possibly leading to further bullish movement. Forecast: A buy opportunity may arise as the breakout indicates a change in trend. Waiting for a retest of the breakout level for confirmation can provide a stronger entry point. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a successful breakout and retest of the previous resistance as support. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed below the breakout level to minimize risk. - Take Profit: Target key resistance zones where price may face selling pressure. Market Sentiment: The breakout of the downtrend resistance suggests that bullish momentum is increasing. A confirmed retest with strong price action can provide better confirmation for an upward move.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
AUD: A hawkish cut by the RBAThe Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years this morning, matching consensus and market expectations. The 25bp reduction was accompanied by some rather hawkish remarks by Governor Michele Bullock, both in the statement and in the press conference. Bullock seemed to focus on pushing back against the dovish repricing in the AUD curve, reiterating that the focus remains firmly on inflation risk. That approach is in contrast with those of other developed central banks (including the neighbouring Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which should cut 50bp this week) which have shifted towards growth concerns. Markets are pricing just under two cuts in Australia by the end of 2025, while we have a slightly more dovish forecast with one cut per quarter (three in total). Bullock’s cautious tone on further easing has allowed AUD to counter the USD rebound this morning. That said, we doubt markets are ready to shift expectations to only one RBA cut this year, and AUD’s high exposure to the trade story and risk sentiment may quickly overcome any short-term benefits from the RBA’s tone today. We still think a return to 0.62 in AUD/USD is warranted by the end of March, with further downside risks in the second and third quarters when US protectionism may intensify.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
Buy the Dips? AUD/USD Eyes 0.65 After BreakoutAs mentioned, I remain bullish on AUD/USD and expect a rise to 0.65. Over the past 10 days, the pair has remained virtually unchanged, fluctuating within a tight 50-pip range between 0.6250 and 0.63. However, yesterday, AUD/USD showed some strength and broke above 0.63. I believe this breakout is genuine, and we could see further acceleration to the upside. My target remains 0.65, and I will stay bullish as long as the 0.62 zone holds. Buying dips should continue to be the preferred strategy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
4
AUDUSD – Early Focus on the RBA Last week AUDUSD rallied 2% from opening levels around 0.6230 on Monday to a Friday close at 0.6355, as tariff fatigue saw FX traders reduce dollar longs across the board into the weekend. At the start of this new trading week, the direction of AUDUSD is likely to be determined by local events, with the RBA convening early on Tuesday morning (0330 GMT) to potentially cut interest rates for the first time in nearly 4 years. Just as relevant could be the tone of comments from RBA Governor Bullock in the press conference, which starts at 0430 GMT. Given the market is currently pricing in around 75bps of total RBA easing for 2025, her views regarding the pace of future cuts will be important, especially if they shift the market outlook either way in this regard. Also important will be her comments on inflation, employment and the threat of what a potential trade war between the US and Australia’s most important trading partner China, could mean for Australia’s economy moving forward. Against this backdrop for potential AUDUSD volatility assessing the technical outlook can also be helpful. Technical Assessment: Since the start of February AUDUSD has enjoyed a period of strength that has broken above some of its immediate resistance levels. This has seen a sustained phase of strength materialise from the February 3rd low at 0.6087, a move that has been able to breach resistance marked by the upper extremes of the downtrend channel which has be in place since it registered a high of 0.6942 on September 30th (see chart above), and which was last touched when a high of 0.6331 traded on January 24th. While this breakout is no guarantee of continued price strength, it does highlight the potential for further attempts to extend recent upside moves. What are the Possible Resistance Levels to Watch if Further Upside Strength is Seen? Fibonacci retracement levels can mark resistance areas where there is potential for sellers to be found again. The 38.2% retracement of the September 30th to February 3rd AUDUSD price weakness stands at 0.6414 and may prove to be a possible level that may cap the current advance. However, if this wasn’t to be the case and successful closing upside breaks were seen, then the higher 50% retracement point at 0.6515 could well become more relevant. What Supports Should be Monitored if Prices Reverse Back Lower? Of course, after what has already been a sustained move higher during February, it’s possible that corrections could materialise ahead of the rate announcement, in response to the decision itself or something that is said in the press conference. If that were to be the case then traders may be watching the 0.6302 level, which is equal to half the rally from last week’s low, as the first support. While this level holds any price weakness, it’s possible further attempts at upside strength could emerge again, however closing breaks below this level might suggest risks are emerging for a more extended phase of price weakness. Such moves could in turn point to tests of potential support at 0.6264, which is the 38.2% retracement of February’s price strength and if were to give ways, then the next support which stands at 0.6230 (deeper 50% level on chart above), could become relevant. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
AUDUSDHere's how the anticipated Australian economic data releases may affect the AUD/USD trade directional bias today by 4;30am Key Data Releases and Potential Impacts: (1)Cash Rate (Forecast 4.10%, Previous 4.35%): Lower than Forecast (AUD Negative): If the actual cash rate is lower than the forecast of 4.10%, it would indicate a more dovish stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), suggesting concerns about economic growth. This would likely weaken the AUD, leading to a potential decline in the AUD/USD. As Expected (Neutral to Slightly AUD Negative): If the cash rate matches the forecast of 4.10%, the impact might be neutral, but the AUD could still face some downward pressure because it confirms the RBA is easing monetary policy. Higher than Forecast (AUD Positive): An unexpected hold or increase in the cash rate would signal a hawkish RBA, strengthening the AUD and potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD. (2)RBA Monetary Policy Statement & RBA Rate Statement: These statements provide context and reasoning behind the RBA's interest rate decisions and offer insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy intentions. Dovish Statements (AUD Negative): If the statements express concerns about economic growth, highlight downside risks, or signal further rate cuts, the AUD would likely weaken, pushing the AUD/USD lower. Hawkish Statements (AUD Positive): If the statements convey confidence in the economy, emphasize inflation control, or suggest a willingness to raise rates if needed, the AUD would likely strengthen, potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD. (3)Factors Influencing AUD/USD Directional Bias: Interest Rate Differentials: The difference between the interest rates set by the RBA and the US Federal Reserve influences the AUD/USD. If the Federal Reserve were to increase the interest rate, money may flow into the US strengthening the US dollar, and consequently weakening the AUD/USD rate. (4)US Economic Data and Fed Policy: The anticipation is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates going forward. (5)China's Economic Conditions: China's weaker-than-expected reports fuel global growth concerns and limit the demand of "risk" currencies like the Aussie. (6)Commodity Prices: AUD/USD is behaving like a cyclical risk asset, showing relationships with crude oil Potential Scenarios and Trade Implications: Dovish RBA, Hawkish Fed: This scenario could create a bearish backdrop for AUD/USD. Technical Considerations: AUD/USD is finding support from a major area of interest at 0.61451 support,it may see enough demand to revisit the the supply roof aand if it breaks it to the moon,
Short
by Shavyfxhub
AUD/USDd trend at the beginning of the weekAUD/USD news: 🔆The Australian dollar climbed to 0.6370 on Monday following China’s release of its 2025 annual policy statement on Sunday. The statement outlined plans to advance rural reforms and drive comprehensive rural revitalization, boosting optimism about China’s economic outlook. Given China’s significance as Australia’s key trading partner, these stimulus measures could further support the AUD. 🔆Additionally, the AUD/USD pair gained traction as US President Donald Trump signaled potential progress in trade talks with China, easing concerns over tariffs. Investors will remain attentive to any new tariff-related updates from Trump. 🔆Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first rate reduction in four years. RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the burden of high interest rates but warned that inflation was still a concern. She highlighted the resilience of the labor market and clarified that future rate cuts are not guaranteed, despite market expectations. 🔆The Australian dollar continued to strengthen as the US dollar weakened, following disappointing US economic data. Personal opinion: 🔆AUD will increase in the short term after considering the recent good news, but then there will be a technical adjustment at the 0.6420 area. Technical analysis: 🔆Based on important support - resistance levels combined with trend lines to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell AUDUSD 0.6420 – 0.6435 ❌SL: 0.6480 | ✅TP: 0.6390 – 0.6350 – 0.6300 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1