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USDAUD trade ideas

AUDUSD – Volatility Alert: Mind the GapIt’s been a busy start to the week for AUDUSD after President Trump followed through over the weekend with his promise to impose trade tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China, who is Australia’s biggest trading partner, starting on Tuesday February 4th. AUDUSD was already under pressure after last Wednesday’s CPI reading showed Australian core inflation to have eased more than expected, which boosted trader expectations for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) when they meet on February 18th and sent the currency back down towards yearly lows, closing on Friday at 0.6210. Now, the potential escalation of a global tit for tat trade war has boosted the dollar side of the FX pair as concerns filter through around the upside impact this could have on US inflation, which could lead to the Federal Reserve (Fed) pausing rate cuts indefinitely, or in the worst case scenario even having to raise interest rates at some stage down the line. This led to a gap open to start this week and a sell off to 4 year lows at 0.6087 overnight. However, there has been a rebound as traders await confirmation that the tariffs will be implemented tomorrow, with President Trump due to speak to the leaders of Canada and Mexico later today. This provides us with a chance to take stock of the recent price action and look at the technical levels that may be relevant, dependent on the next moves in AUDUSD across the rest of the week. Technical Update: Gap Assessment The decision by President Trump to impose global tariffs has seen significant volatility for all assets, and within FX not many currencies away from the US Dollar have escaped strong selling pressure. This has resulted in sharp moves at today’s open, leaving several what are called ‘gaps’ within technical analysis. Gaps are when an asset opens away from its previous close, which in the case of AUDUSD is a gap lower between Monday’s 0.6087 opening price and last Friday’s 0.6210 close. There is a common misconception that a Gap must be quickly ‘closed’, in other words, in the case of AUDUSD, the market must rally and trade back to 0.6210, which was Friday’s close, before the next sustainable price movement is seen. This is not true! A gap can remain ‘open’ within price activity for many days, weeks, or even months. In fact, there are 3 types of Gap that can materialise, and it is worth looking at these definitions to attempt to establish where the next directional risks lie for AUDUSD. Breakaway Gap: This is seen when an asset opens significantly higher or lower away from the previous close and often develops at the start of a new trend. This can materialise after a reversal or a continuation pattern in price, and reflects that traders are now looking for a sustained move in the direction of the Gap break. In AUDUSD, it is possible the latest Gap lower forms a Breakaway gap, although this will depend on confirmation from future price trends. It has materialised after a price consolidation between mid-December to late January. This may be an indication of a resumption of the downtrend channel evident in the chart above, a move that has been in place since the September 2024 highs. Continuation Gap: This is a Gap higher or lower in price, and highlights a continuation of the on-going trend, as traders are keen to establish new trades or increase positions, which suggests the trend may remain. For AUDUSD, it is also possible recent price action could suggest a continuation of the downtrend channel, with the risks of tariffs from the US, adding to the negative sentiment, maintaining the channel. Exhaustion Gap: This is mainly seen at the end of a market trend and reflects the final phase of selling/buying pressure within that trend. This can mark the potential end or even reversal of a trend, where buying or selling has been exhausted, with positioning perhaps then skewed too far in the direction of the trend. It is at this point that the potential of a reactive move or reversal in price may be greater. While this is no guarantee of future price action, with the latest Gap lower in AUDUSD coming after a sideways consolidation, we would question if the latest activity suggests an exhaustion Gap, but time and further price action will help us to gauge this further. So, where does this leave the latest AUDUSD activity, and what can it tell us about future potential price moves? Just because a Gap lower has been seen within AUDUSD this morning, doesn’t mean this necessarily fits within the 3 Gap rule. However, we will watch price activity closely from here to suggest where the next directional risks might lie. What if Further Downside is Seen? Having so far rallied from this mornings 0.6087 low, this level may now be viewed as support; buyers have been found here and may well be found again. However, breaks below 0.6087, if seen, may lead to a more extended phase of price weakness. If this is the case, it might in time lead to price weakness towards the next potential support at the lower limits of the downtrend channel, which currently stand at 0.5980. What If Price Strength Emerges? A failure to extend the current weakness may see a recovery in price, but what could be resistance at higher levels? The first resistance level may prove to be the actual Gap left from Friday’s 0.6210 close, where sellers having missed the opportunity to sell at this level previously, may be tempted to do so again. However, breaks above the 0.6210 level may suggest a more extended phase of price recovery, with the next resistance level possibly being, 0.6227, which is the Bollinger mid-average, and above there the 0.6284 level, which marks the current level of the downtrend channel upper extremes. 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by Pepperstone
AUDUSD Bullish Trade Idea - SwingMy trading is based on COT readings along with Supply & Demand. In this idea you can see a clear Weekly Demand area in support with great COT readings where the Users & Producers are clearly bullish and Retailers bearish. Of course, you want to trade AGAINST retailers at all costs because they are mostly wrong. imgur.com (Red = U&Ps | Blue = Retailers | Green = Fund managers / trend followers) So, in addition to all that, I use Elliott Waves to confirm trends or end of trends, and now we're in the beginning of a major Wave 3 (creating wave 1 & 2, we're here). Hope you like this idea and trade safe!
Long
by AlbertFX99
Aussie H4 | Bearish downtrend to resume?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6173 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6223 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 0.6087 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
AUDUSD, What will hapen in upcoming weeks ?Hello Traders, Happy new year in advance, I Hope you have a great year ahead with your family. let's go for AUDUSD analysis: for upcoming weeks, we'll probably see an upward correction to Specified level at first and then it will start another fall. so with a proper trigger we can open a short position. And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post. If this post was helpful to you, please like it and share it with your friend. THANKS.
Short
by aminrzb
2
AUD/USD - Simple FIB Survey @ 3WDear Friends, How I survey unknown territory: Should price continue down, where is the next potential bottom? Zoom out to 1W or 3W or 1M TF's. Use you FIB as indicated. 78.6% is a high probability area for the next bottom, should selling pressure continue ! Alternative possibilities: Firstly, price have potential to fill the gap and then continue down A bull trap as I see it. or Price may actually fill the gap and hold demand which will activate our green thesis. **Which could fundamentally mean institutions have dipped in liquidity pre-swing reversal. Keynote: DO NOT BUY BELOW 0.62000!
by ANROC
AUD/USD: A Temporary Rally Before Further Decline!Weak business activity data from China has put additional pressure on the Australian dollar. Last week's rise above 0.6300 was temporary, driven more by U.S. dollar weakness than by positive domestic factors. In our previous analysis, we noted a short-term rally after breaking the trendline, but this move has proven to be temporary, as weakness in the Australian dollar persists. On the daily timeframe, a deeper decline is likely if the 0.63 support level breaks, increasing the chances of a drop toward 0.60.
Short
by UtoForex
2
AUD/USD 4H - Bullish MSSHi all.. thanks all for the huge support following recently! Here is my breakdown for AUD/USD from a 4H perspective.. Firstly the easy thing to notice is the 4H breakout from the Trend line. This large Bullish movement created a MSS. We then have had a very clean buying level left behind from that mitigation block before the breakout. As you can notice the most recent supply zone is what kept the price down although we did see a lot of consolidation forming on that supply in my eyes telling me that structure level isnt going to hold another push. The current price is at a very strong OTE zone which is another confluence to buy from. We also recently took out the most recent protected high so we very well could see a large movement from market open and if that is the case Id potentially be looking to buy straight into the next pullback. For a strong buy setup, look for positions above the Monthly High Strong Time Frame. Im targeting Buy side Imbalance giving us two clear targets. Good luck to the traders that follow this setup.
Long
by jamesibartram
Sideways Action in AUD/USD with Bearish Bias Amid RBA Rate Cut AUD/USD is expected to trade sideways in the near term, with a bearish bias overall. The market remains range-bound, and any rallies should be sold at resistance levels, as the broader trend is down. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to cut rates, which could put additional pressure on the Aussie, reinforcing the overall negative outlook for the pair. Watch for confirmation at key levels before entering trades, with the focus on selling at resistance.
Short
by NiF90
AUD/USD - Crucial Support @ 0.62000 to 0.61700Dear Friends, How I see it: If support area holds, pair can potentially rally to 0.64000 - in the near term. It will also confirm the main swing support for the pair. Up to 0.68000 in the long run. I have indicated my buy zone, please see how price react first. Keynotes: 1) If a 4HR candle body closes below 0.61600, I will not enter on that day. 2) To avoid confusion, price may test 0.61700 hard, but if the day candle pulls back and still closes above 0.62000, we'll be golden. I'm only creating a perfect scenario for an explanatory reason. I am confident that you know we are NOT trading in a perfect market, in la la land! Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Long
by ANROC
AUDUSD buying Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart AUDUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today AUDUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (AUDUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity onAUDCAD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Chart
Long
by ForexMasters2000
Is There a Comeback for the AUD/USD Pair?Recently, the Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar to 0.6311, marking its lowest level since March 2020. One of the main reasons behind this decline was the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has lost its upward momentum recently, increasing the chances of a rebound in the AUD/USD pair. The recent positive rebound of the AUD/USD pair has broken the last lower high, which is considered a bullish signal and a shift in trend from bearish to bullish. The current decline is seen as a correction, and based on the Fibonacci retracement tool, the 0.61742 level supports the possibility of another upward move, with a short-term target at 0.6282. However, if the price falls below 0.61311 and records a daily close beneath this level, the bullish scenario will be invalidated, and the bearish outlook will regain control over the AUD/USD pair.
by CFI