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AUDUSDShort Fundamental Analysis – AUD/USD 1. Context • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) • Has hinted at a pause in rate hikes, citing global economic headwinds and China’s slower growth as key considerations. • Australian economy is closely tied to commodity exports; weakening commodity demand can weigh on the AUD. • Federal Reserve (Fed) • Maintains a hawkish stance with high interest rates, underpinned by solid US data (GDP ~+2.6%, unemployment ~3.7%). • The yield advantage of the USD often puts downward pressure on the AUD. 2. Possible Direction • Bias: Slightly bearish for AUD/USD, given the interest rate differential favoring the USD and uncertainties around China’s demand for Australian resources. • Alternate Scenario: • Strong Chinese economic data (especially industrial and construction) could boost Aussie exports, supporting the AUD. • A shift to a more dovish stance by the Fed (e.g., slowing rate hikes faster than expected) would also benefit AUD/USD in the short term. 3. Factors to Watch This Week 1. Chinese Indicators • PMI data, industrial output, and stimulus measures can significantly influence Australia’s export outlook. 2. RBA Communications • Any surprise hawkish turn or positive local data (e.g., employment, GDP) could lend short-term support to the AUD. 3. US Economic Releases • Strong US figures (inflation, jobs) typically reinforce Fed hawkishness and keep the AUD under pressure. 4. Overall Conclusion • AUD faces headwinds from the RBA’s cautious approach and reliance on Chinese demand. • USD remains strong on higher rates and robust economic fundamentals. • In the near term, AUD/USD is likely to remain under pressure unless Chinese data improves or the Fed signals a meaningful pause in tightening. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets can be volatile and involve significant risks. Always align decisions with your risk profile and consult official sources before making any trades.
by SkylimitBreakPoint
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 13 February 2025 - AUDUSD reversed from the resistance area - Likely to fall to support level 0.6225 AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area located between the key resistance level 0.6300 which has been reversing the price from the start of January) and the upper lower daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous short-term correction ii from the end of January. Given the clear daily downtrend, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.6225 (which reversed the price twice earlier this month).
Short
by FxProGlobal
Trading AUDUSD and NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 12/02/2025Last week was a slow one for the Judas Swing strategy, as we didn’t get any trades on the four currency pairs we trade (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD). We stayed disciplined and didn’t deviate from our plan and avoided chasing trades that didn’t align with our checklist. To reach a point in your trading journey where you no longer chase trades is a significant milestone traders need to take note of. It helps prevent overtrading and unnecessary losses outside your system. After that slow week, we were eager to see what opportunities this week would bring. By Wednesday, two promising setups emerged on AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Now, let’s walk you through how these trades played out We usually get to our trading desk 5 minutes before our trading session begins. By 08:30 EST, our trading session had started, and we were on the lookout for potential opportunities. By 09:00 EST, we saw a sweep of liquidity at the lows of both NZDUSD and AUDUSD, this was our signal to start watching for potential buying setups. But before we take any buy positions we need wait for these conditions to be met: 1. Break of structure to the buy side 2. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) must be left behind 3. Price must retrace into the FVG Until all three conditions align, no trade is taken. Even if two out of three are met, we stay on the sidelines. Following this plan ensures we only take high-probability setups. At this stage, we were waiting for price to break structure to the upside our key confirmation to enter the trades. After waiting patiently, all the conditions on our checklist aligned, giving us the green light to execute while managing our risk. We risk 1% per trade with a target reward of 2%, meaning our total risk across both trades was 2%, with an expected return of 4%. Sticking to this structured approach ensures we maintain consistency and discipline in our trading These trades felt like the kind of sniper entries most traders dream of, minimal to no drawdown, with price moving directly to our targets. NZDUSD hit our target at 0.56292 in just 55 minutes, and AUDUSD mirrored this precision, reaching 0.62647 in the same timeframe. Given their strong correlation, it’s no surprise that both pairs moved in sync, reinforcing the power of well-planned setups. Our patience paid off, as these trades delivered a solid 4% return.
by CleoFinance
AUDUSD IN A RANGEOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view the price will fall to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment! Let’s master the market together. Please share your thoughts and encourage us to do more by liking this idea.
Short
by dkb14246
AUDUSD sideways consolidation continuesThe AUDUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. However, the recent price action since 24th December 2024, appears to be protracted sideways consolidation. The key trading level is at 0.6311, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 0.6311 level could target the downside support at 0.6220 followed by 0.6183 and 0.6163 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 0.6311 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 0.6330 resistance level followed by 0.6350. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
AUD/USD: Precision Entry Loading….4H bulls are in full control—momentum is pushing, and I’m not here to question it. Dropped to the 30M, got my CHoCH, and now structure is fully bullish. Now? Just waiting. Price needs to sweep inducement, then I’ll step in off the order block after my final 5M confirmation. No rushing, no second-guessing—just letting price do what it has to do. Most traders chase. I let price come to me. Let’s see if AUD wants to play its part. #AUDUSD #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
AUDUSD is ready to push againNo comment needed. All information is in the chart analysis. Steps to follow: Analyze yourself. Take the position with SL and Take Profits. Wait, it may take a couple of days, so take a break and step away from the screen from time to time, just like I do :) Get the result. I will update the trade every day. Like, comment with your good mood or viewpoint, share with your circle. It’s together that we get stronger! Good trades, Traders! The golden bear
Short
by thegoldenbear
Will AUDUSD limitedly recover amid mixed views?Macro: - The aussie-dollar is rebounding after the bearish sentiment over Trump’s tariffs has pressured the currency. - Expectations are rising that the RBA will cut interest rates this month due to easing inflation and weaker growth prospects. - This theme may impair currency recovery if there are any further corrections. Technical: - AUDUSD is recovering from its swing low around the support at 0.6150. The price forms a potential double-bottom pattern, which may set an upward bias to the currency in the short term. - If AUDUSD stays above its support at 0.6250, the price may continue to advance to retest at 0.6400, which confluences with the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci Retracement. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 0.6250, confluence with EMA21 may prompt a retest of the previous swing low of around 0.6140. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - During the Senate hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that "there is no need to rush in adjusting the stance of monetary policy," emphasizing that the Fed's policy is significantly less restrictive than before and that the economy remains strong. He maintained a cautious and conservative stance, suggesting it is too early to assess the impact of tariff policies. - Markets showed little reaction to Powell's remarks, as they were largely in line with his statements in January. Instead, attention is focused on the February CPI and employment data, which will be released before the March FOMC meeting. - ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel took a hawkish stance, stating that while rate cuts could mitigate economic downturns, they cannot resolve structural crises such as high energy prices, economic stagnation, and labor shortages. This Week’s Key Economic Events + Feb 12: U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI), Speech by Fed Chair Powell + Feb 13: U.K. Q4 GDP, Germany January CPI, U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI) + Feb 14: U.S. January Retail Sales AUDUSD Chart Analysis Recently, the pair found support at the 0.61000 level and successfully climbed to 0.63000. If it breaks through this level, further gains up to 0.64000 can be expected. However, this movement is seen as part of a broader downtrend, with an eventual decline towards 0.60000 anticipated. If unforeseen factors lead to a breakout above 0.64000, we will swiftly adjust our strategy.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Australian dollar drifting after mixed confidence dataThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday.  In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6279, up 0.05% on the day. Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday.  The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the surveyed consumers were pessimistic about econmic conditions.  The reading bounced back from a 0.7% decline in January but was shy of the forecast of 0.4%.  Consumer confidence remains weak as consumers have been squeezed by high inflation and elevated interest rates.  The survey noted that consumers have become more confident that the central bank will lower rates. The National Australia Bank's (NAB) business confidence index, which rose 6 points in January to +4. However, business conditions index dropped to +3 from +6 a month earlier, as profitability and employment weakened.  The NAB survey noted that retail spending has improved and this trend would need to continue if business conditions were to improve. The mixed confidence numbers come just one week before a crucial Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.  A rate cut is virtually certain at the meeting, which would mark the RBA's first rate cut since Nov. 2020.  The RBA is yet to join the easing cycle which other major central banks have implemented as inflation has fallen. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue to maintain interest rates at the March meeting.  The US economy remains robust and the labor market has slowed gradually, which means there isn't much pressure on Fed policy makers to lower rates in the coming months.  Barring unexpected economic news, the Fed is expected to cut rates no more than one or two times in 2025. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6267 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6245 There is resistance at 0.6299 and 0.6321
by OANDA
AUDUSD: We expect 100bp of RBA cuts in 2025The market is pricing in the first 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week on 18 February. While this is in line with our view and we place a 60% probability to it, we think the decision to cut or pause will be a close one – and it’s therefore not a done deal. Key to our thinking is that the wage pressures have eased more than expected and household consumption growth has been weaker than expected, which should give the RBA more comfort to ease. However, the unemployment rate is still below the central bank’s target, which could result in more uncertainty on the pace and timing of rate cuts. Weak employment details support our call for a rate cut in February. For December 2024, despite the strong headline employment growth number, the increase largely came from the part-time sector. Even on a trend basis, we can see a weakening trend of full-time employment growth, while the pace of part-time employment growth has improved. Part-time jobs – which are almost by definition more poorly paid, and often come with lower job security, perks and other benefits – will have a smaller impact, job-for-job, on household spending than full-time employment growth. The AUD cash rate future curve fully prices in a 25bp rate cut in February, and a total of 83bp of easing by the end of the year. That follows a dovish shift in rate expectations, with markets having added almost 50bp of additional cuts for 2025 since mid-November. While we acknowledge the risk of inflationary bumps slowing easing plans, we currently forecast a total of 100bp of RBA easing in 2025 (including this February cut), taking rates to a terminal level of 3.35%.
Short
by AccuTrade2000