USDAUD trade ideas
AUDUSDScared money never makes money.I found my self thinking that, but back to what matters.I called the trade before ,waited for my checklist to fill ,then went in .
I am now being patient .
audusd longaudusd long
Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
INSTRUCTIONS:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
AUDUSD 4H SWING TRADE IDEAThe current overall direction for The Australian dollar is a downtrend with multiple ranges on the lower timeframes respectively while gathering liquidity points and levels to be taken out upwards before eventually moving back down in the upcoming weeks.
Current price: 0.63669
POI: 0.62697(If the price gets to this level, we should get a position if a signal appears)
Will the better-than-expected employment data revert AUD's trend+ Macro theme:
The RBA kept rates at 4.35%, sounding more optimistic about inflation and hinting at future cuts. But Thu's job numbers might spoil those plans—Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, showing a surprisingly strong labor market. This hot jobs data could push back those early 2025 rate-cut forecasts many have been making.
+ Technical theme:
- AUDUSD found support and bounced above 0.6365. The price is within the descending channel and below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum persists.
- If AUDUSD extends its decline below 0.6365, the price may retest the subsequent support at 0.6300, confluence with the 100% level of Fibonacci Extension.
- On the contrary, if AUDUSD surges above 0.6474, breaking its descending channel and EMA21, the price may retest the following resistance around 0.6560.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
AUDUSD downside target 0.6270In the chart, AUDUSD is currently running below the downward trend line, and the bearish trend is obvious. Yesterday's market closed with a bearish pinbar pattern. Currently, you can pay attention to the area around 0.639. If the rebound is blocked, you can consider shorting. Pay attention to the support near 0.627 below.
Finally some relief for the Australian Dollar | FX ResearchUS CPI came in as expected on Wednesday, which has kept markets mostly confined to tighter consolidation. The data confirms expectations for another rate cut from the Fed next week. However, it also introduces the possibility that the Fed might be less accommodative in 2025.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar has been benefiting from a strong wave of demand after sinking to a fresh yearly and multi-month low on Wednesday. Earlier today, Australian employment data came in much stronger than expected, leading to a less dovish repricing of RBA bets.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada proceeded with a 50 basis point rate cut. Interestingly, the Canadian dollar traded higher on the day, driven by the market's prior anticipation of the rate cut—classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" behavior.
Key standouts on Thursday's calendar include the ECB policy decision, US producer prices, and US initial jobless claims.
Audusd AUD/USD rises to 0.6392, buoyed by weak US labor market reports. US Initial Jobless Claims hit a two-month high, fueling speculation of continued Fed policy easing. Australian employment exceeds expectations with 35.6K jobs added in November, unemployment dips to 3.9%The AUD/USD rose sharply and print a daily high of 0.6429 following Aussie’s data, but it has trimmed its gains, as strong US PPI figures, hint that the Federal Reserve would adopt a cautious approach on reducing interest rates.
Momentum turned slightly bullish in the near-term, but overall, the trend Is tilted to the downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish.
If AUD/USD buyers reclaim 0.6400, the next resistance would be the 0.6500 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.6568.
Conversely, if sellers stepped in and drag prices below the December 11 daily close of 0.6336, the pair might drop to 0.6300, before aiming toward October 23, 2023 swing low of 0.6270
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights.
Technical Setup
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level).
Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection).
Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit).
Risk/Reward Insights
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed.
Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights.
Technical Setup
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level).
Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection).
Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit).
Risk/Reward Insights
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed.
Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
Looking for a move upIf support holds at the hour, looking for a move up to .5 on FIB
Don't get greedy!
Always set a stop loss!
Tools:
Stoch RSI
MACD
DD
AUDUSD - Potential Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
AUD/USD Short PositionThis trade aligns with the broader bearish trend, as the pair continues to exhibit rejection near key resistance levels. Technical indicators, including moving averages, support the downward momentum. The position reflects a cautious approach to capitalize on potential price weakening, consistent with current market sentiment and broader technical patterns.
AUDUSD Stop Hunt | Avoid CaptureHere's a brief explanation of why stop hunts happen as well as an AUUDSD full analysis/runover post US CPI.
AUD/USD at Critical Support: Will the Bearish Trend Continue?Overview
AUD/USD is currently in a well-defined downtrend across multiple timeframes, with significant bearish pressure dominating the market. However, the pair is nearing critical support zones, which could potentially trigger a corrective bounce or a continued sell-off.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
- Trend : The daily chart shows the pair consolidating near the 0.6370 level after a prolonged sell-off. The price is attempting to hold above the critical support at 0.6350.
- Indicators:
- RSI is near oversold levels, suggesting a potential corrective bounce.
- Volume shows no significant accumulation, indicating weak bullish participation.
- Key Levels:
- Resistance: 0.6400 and 0.6450 (Short-term resistance zones).
- Support: 0.6350 (Critical level).
- Outlook : A daily close above 0.6400 could trigger a corrective rally toward 0.6450 or 0.6500. On the flip side, a daily close below 0.6350 opens the door for further downside to 0.6300 and 0.6250.
Key Trading Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario:
- Look for bullish confirmation (RSI divergence or break of 0.6400 resistance).
- Target: 0.6450 and 0.6500.
- Stop Loss: Below 0.6350.
2.Bearish Scenario:
- Wait for a breakdown below 0.6350 with volume confirmation.
- Target: 0.6300 and 0.6250.
- Stop Loss: Above 0.6400.
Conclusion
AUD/USD is at a critical juncture, with a bearish bias dominating the higher timeframes. Traders should watch the 0.6350 support level closely for a potential breakout or breakdown scenario. A corrective bounce toward 0.6450 or 0.6500 is possible, but the overall trend remains bearish unless we see a sustained break above 0.6500.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
Objectives complete and now we have new plans... AUDUSDGreetings fellow traders!
All the major targets marked in the previous idea have been achieved.
The new plan for now is observing what the market does. We do have a bullish Purge and Revert in progress in AUDUSD on the daily. Long till 0.64700. Apart from that, we also have a daily volume imbalance which would draw price towards it. Attaching the daily chart for reference.
Have an insightful trading week ahead!
Disclaimer- All content is for educational purposes only and not trading advice.
AUDUSD (2D) HIGH-RISK OPPORTUNITY, UPTREND⚠️ Here's a HIGH-RISK OPPORTUNITY to capture the UPTREND RETRACEMENT before it returns to the High Timeframe downtrend.
SLO2 @ 0.7235 ⏳
RESISTANCE @ 0.71769
SLO1 @ 0.7138 ⏳
TP4 @ 0.7090
TP3 @ 0.6914 (Resistance, minor)
TP2 @ 0.6800
TP1 @ 0.6636
BLO1 0.6469 ⏳
BLO2 0.6366 📈
⚠️Holding a Long Position above 0.6914 is HIGH-RISK
AUDUSDAUDUSD is entring into bullish trend.
Bullish divergence also shown in RSI.
Market sentiment is also bullish.
We buy at CMP.
AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64400 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.64400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD - Short TradeAUDUSD is moving in Bearish trend.
No bullish divergence is formed.
Descending channel is also formed which is bearish continuation pattern.
AUD/USD lower ahead of RBA minutesThe Australian dollar has posted losses on Monday. Early in the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6227, down 0.31% at the time of writing.
It's a very light calendar week, with the Christmas holiday just around the corner. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of this month's meeting on Tuesday, which is the sole Australian event this week.
At the December meeting, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for the ninth straight time. Still, the rate statement held out hope for a near-term rate cut, based on some nuances in the language. Previous statements had signaled that rate hikes were on the table, with the board stating it was not "ruling anything in or out", but this phrase was omitted in the December statement.
The RBA also sounded more optimistic about the inflation outlook, with the statement noting that the board was "gaining confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target". The market viewed this language as being dovish, although Governor Bullock reiterated after the meeting that the February rate decision would be based on the data.
In the US, durable goods orders declined 1.1% m/m in November, after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in October and well below the market estimate of -0.4%. The decline was largely driven by a decrease in new orders for transportation equipment.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell sharply in December to 104.7, down from an upwardly revised 112.8 and well off the market estimate of 113. Consumers were less optimistic about the employment outlook and incomes. The Conference Board report found that consumers are concerned that the tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration will push prices higher in 2025.
AUD/USD pushed below support at 0.6247 and tested support at 0.6219 earlier
0.6278 and 0.6306 are the next resistance lines
Trading AUDUSD and NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 16/12/2024Last week was a slow period for trading with the Judas Swing strategy. We were presented with only two trading opportunities on GBPUSD and AUDUSD, resulting in a win and a loss respectively, yielding a 1% gain for the week. With that in mind, we are eager to explore the opportunities that may arise this week.
For the Judas Swing strategy, we focus on identifying setups on the following trading pairs: AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD. At 09:30 EST, the market swept liquidity on the sell side of AUDUSD, signalling potential buying opportunities for the session. Shortly after, a similar sweep occurred on the sell side for NZDUSD signalling potential buying opportunities for this currency pair as well. Now, all we need is a break of structure to the buy side. After patiently waiting, we identified similar setups on both AUDUSD and NZDUSD, which are closely correlated pairs, often moving in tandem due to their economic ties and similar market influences.
Following the break of structure (BOS), price retraced into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). Once the candle closed, both pairs met the entry criteria outlined in our checklist, allowing us to execute our trades.
The AUDUSD trade hit take profit (TP) with minimal drawdown, delivering a 2% return in just 55 minutes. Meanwhile, the NZDUSD trade on the other hand came close to hitting TP but experienced a slight retracement that temporarily delayed reaching the target
We revisited the NZDUSD position, and once again, it edged closer to the TP only to retrace again, frustrating, isn’t it? That’s the nature of trading, it takes you on an emotional rollercoaster. This is why it’s crucial to only risk what you can afford to lose, ensuring you can manage these emotions effectively.
After patiently waiting, our perseverance paid off as the NZDUSD trade finally hit TP after 8 hours and 25 minutes, rewarding us with a 2% return. Combined with the AUDUSD trade, we were up 4% on Monday an incredible way to kick off the week!
