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U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar

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USDAUD trade ideas

AUDUSD STARTED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTUREThe AUD/USD pair has recently begun forming a bearish trend structure, signaling a potential continuation of downward momentum in the coming trading sessions. This shift in market sentiment is evident as the price has started printing lower lows, a key characteristic of a bearish trend. Lower lows indicate that sellers are gaining control, pushing the exchange rate downward with each successive decline. Traders and investors should remain cautious, as this pattern suggests further downside potential unless a significant reversal occurs. On the lower side, the market is expected to test key support levels at 0.64500 and 0.63800. These levels may act as critical zones where buyers could attempt to step in, but if selling pressure persists, a breakdown could lead to an extended decline. A breach below these supports may open the door for deeper losses, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Conversely, if the pair finds stability near these levels, a short-term bounce or consolidation could occur before the next directional move. On the upside, 0.65900 stands as a crucial resistance level. Any bullish retracement towards this zone could attract fresh selling interest, capping upward movements. A sustained break above this resistance would be necessary to invalidate the current bearish structure, potentially shifting the trend towards neutrality or even bullish reversal. Until then, rallies towards this resistance may present selling opportunities for traders aligning with the prevailing downtrend. In summary, the AUD/USD pair is exhibiting bearish tendencies, with lower lows confirming seller dominance. The immediate targets lie at 0.64500 and 0.63800, while 0.65900 serves as a key resistance to watch. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for potential bearish continuation or signs of a trend reversal. Risk management remains essential, as unexpected macroeconomic developments or shifts in market sentiment could alter the current trajectory.
Short
by Brillant_Capital
AUDUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, and welcome! Please share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - U.S. President Donald Trump stated ahead of a cabinet meeting at the White House that he will announce tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and several other items, adding that pharmaceuticals could face tariffs of up to 200%. - The European Union has not yet received a formal tariff notice from Trump. However, it is reportedly considering a possible agreement to maintain a base tariff rate of 10%. - Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, remarked, “I don’t think inflation is sustainably low—I actually believe it is still higher.” Key Economic Events This Week + July 9: FOMC Meeting Minutes Release + July 10: Germany June CPI + July 11: U.K. May GDP AUDUSD Chart Analysis The recent uptrend has temporarily paused around the 0.66000 level. However, the pair is expected to resume its upward momentum in the 0.64700–0.65000 zone. Once the bullish trend resumes, it is likely to rise smoothly toward the 0.67000 level, although minor resistance is expected at 0.67000, which could trigger a short-term pullback. In the longer term, the pair is still projected to rise toward the 0.69000 level.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Aussie H4 | Pullback support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6514 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.6475 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 0.6586 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
short setup on AUD/USD 🧠 Overall Context W (Weekly): Bullish D (Daily): Bearish 12H, 6H, 4H: Bearish Bias: Short-term bearish retracement inside higher timeframe bullish structure. 🔍 Technical Breakdown 🔴 1. Market Structure Price broke below a significant support zone (around 0.65300–0.65400), flipping it into resistance (now labeled Weekly AOI). A bearish BOS (Break of Structure) has occurred on 4H. Lower high formation is anticipated at the AOI (area of interest) around 0.65200–0.65400. 🔵 2. EMA Confluence Price is now below the 50 EMA (blue) and testing the 200 EMA (red) as dynamic resistance/support. The rejection near the 200 EMA (red) is forming consolidation, suggesting distribution before another leg down. 🟥 3. Supply Zone (Weekly AOI) Clear supply zone rejection in red box: previous support → resistance flip. The red rectangle represents a potential entry zone for a short, with SL above 0.65400. 🟩 4. Trade Setup Entry: Rejection or mitigation at 0.65200–0.65400 zone (Weekly AOI). SL: Just above the supply zone, around 0.65465. TP: Near Daily AOI at 0.64500–0.64490, aligning with a strong demand zone from late June. RR (Risk-Reward): Approximately 1:2 or better, depending on exact entry. 🔻 5. Projection Path Bearish move expected after potential pullback. Red arrow shows anticipated path: rally to Weekly AOI → rejection → continuation to Daily AOI → possible reaction at Weekly AOI below 0.6400 if sell pressure continues. ✅ Confluences for Short HTF (4H, 6H, 12H) bearish structure. Rejection at flipped Weekly AOI. Bearish EMA alignment. Clear BOS and lower-high formation. Clean TP target at Daily AOI (logical liquidity pool).
Short
by andreabiondo13
Contrarian Alert: Retail Is Buying, But Should You Sell?So far, there are no significant changes in the options flow suggesting a shift in sentiment or restructuring of previously established bullish positions. The market remains on watch, but interesting signals are coming from other sources. According to the latest COT reports , institutional players continue to align with the current trend, reinforcing its stability. However, retail positioning is starting to show signs of a potential reversal , with a noticeable increase in net-long positions and fresh buying activity over the past two days. This often indicates early countertrend interest. The well-known contrarian principle — "do the opposite" — applies here, although it shouldn't be taken as an immediate signal to short. For my part, I’ve identified the 0.6565–0.6570 zone as a key level where long positions are concentrated: A rejection from this zone could offer a solid shorting opportunity. A break above it would suggest the trend might resume higher. By that point, updated options flow data and new positioning COT reports may provide further confirmation.
Short
by ClashChartsTeam
AUDUSD oversold rebound at 0.6465 ?Trend Overview: The AUDUSD currency price remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher. Key Technical Levels: Support: 0.6465 (primary pivot), followed by 0.6445 and 0.6400 Resistance: 0.6570 (initial), then 0.6590 and 0.6625 Technical Outlook: A pullback to the 0.6465 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 0.6570, 0.6590, and ultimately 0.6625. Conversely, a daily close below 0.6465 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 0.6445 and 0.6400 as downside levels. Conclusion: AUDUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 0.6465 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 0.6570 area. A breakdown below 0.6465, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Aussie H4 | Potential bullish bounce off a pullback supportThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6555 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.6500 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 0.6598 which is a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
AUDUSDAUD/USD Exchange Rate Current Level: 0.6530–0.6550 Slightly bearish near-term bias amid RBA rate cut expectations Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield Current Yield: 4.15% (as of June 30, 2025) Rose 0.01 percentage points from the previous session. Reflects market reaction to RBA policy and global trade uncertainty. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Current Cash Rate: 3.85% (lowest in two years) Cut by 25 bps in May 2025 to combat slowing growth and align with 2–3% inflation targets. Markets price a 90% probability of another 25 bps cut in July 2025. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate Current Federal Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50% Unchanged since December 2024; held steady at the June 18, 2025, meeting. Fed signaled potential for two 25 bps cuts in late 2025 (September/December), contingent on inflation cooling. Key Implications Rate Differential: RBA-Fed spread: –0.40% to –0.65% (AUD negative), pressuring AUD/USD. Australia’s 10Y yield premium over US 10Y (~4.26%) is –0.11%, reducing AUD carry appeal. AUD/USD Drivers: RBA Easing: Expected July cut may weaken AUD further. Fed Patience: Delayed cuts sustain USD strength. Yield Sensitivity: Narrowing yield spreads limit AUD upside. In summary: AUD/USD trades near 0.6530–0.6550, pressured by RBA-Fed policy divergence and narrowing yield spreads. The RBA’s dovish path (3.85% rate, July cut expected) contrasts with the Fed’s hold at 4.25–4.50%, sustaining USD strength. Australia’s 10Y yield at 4.15% offers minimal premium over US Treasuries, limiting AUD support. #AUDUSD
by Shavyfxhub
1
Bullish Analyzing the AUD/USD across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent pattern of price recovery and potential accumulation phases. Starting from the 1D chart, there is a visible upward trend with recent bullish candles indicating strong buying interest. The 4H and 1H charts show a pullback to a potential Order Block (OB) around 0.6535, suggesting institutional buying interest at these levels. The 15M, 5M, and 1M charts provide a more granular view, showing recent price rejection at lower levels and a swift recovery, indicating a sweep of liquidity below recent lows and a potential trapping of retail short positions. This setup suggests a possible preparation for an upward continuation, as institutions may have accumulated enough positions at a discount. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, buying at lower levels (around 0.6535) and preparing for a potential upward move. The repeated testing and rejection of lower prices across shorter timeframes indicate a buildup of buy-side liquidity, likely targeting the recent highs for a liquidity grab. LEARNING POINT: "1H Order Block mitigation after liquidity sweep" - This concept is crucial as it shows how institutions potentially use lower price levels to accumulate positions before driving the price up to target liquidity above the market. SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: AUD/USD ENTRY PRICE: $0.6535 STOP LOSS: $0.6520 TARGET PRICE: $0.6560 CONDITION: Buy limit at $0.6535 after confirming support at this level across multiple timeframes. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.7 (Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: 1H Order Block Mitigation, Multi-Timeframe Liquidity Analysis URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00, Ratio=1:1.7 (Below 2:1 minimum) Risk Calculation: Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $0.6535 - $0.6520 = $0.0015 Reward Calculation: Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $0.6560 - $0.6535 = $0.0025 Ratio Calculation: Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $0.0025 ÷ $0.0015 = 1:1.67 Final Decision: The calculated risk/reward ratio is less than 2:1, thus changing the signal to WAIT. FINAL RECOMMENDATION: WAIT Despite the favorable setup for a BUY based on institutional analysis, the risk/reward ratio does not meet the minimum requirement of 2:1. It is recommended to monitor the price action closely and adjust the target or stop loss to improve the risk/reward ratio before entering the trade.
Long
by Mistermoriarty