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USDAUD trade ideas

AUDUSDAUD/USD: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differential, UIP, and Carry Trade 1. Current Rates and Yield Differential Metric Australia (AUD) United States (USD) Differential (AUD - USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.21% 4.38% -0.17% (-17 bps) Policy Interest Rate 3.85% 4.25%–4.50% -0.40% to -0.65% Australia's 10-year yield eased to 4.21% on June 20, 2025, after RBA rate cuts. The US 10-year yield held at 4.38% amid Fed policy stability. The negative yield spread (-17 bps) reflects Australia's lower long-term rates relative to the US. 2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP Theory: Predicts that currency exchange rates should adjust to offset interest rate differentials. For AUD/USD: This implies the AUD should depreciate against the USD to neutralize the rate advantage. Empirical Reality: UIP often fails short-term. Since 2008, higher-yield currencies (like USD) frequently appreciate, contradicting UIP. 3. Carry Trade Dynamics Strategy: Borrow AUD at 3.85% and invest in USD at 4.38% for a positive carry of +0.53%. Risks: AUD appreciation risk: Economists forecast AUD/USD rising to 0.65–0.67 by end-2025, potentially eroding gains. Volatility: US tariff policies and global trade uncertainty amplify currency swings. 4. Market Outlook AUD Drivers: RBA rate cuts (3.85%) and commodity dependence may limit AUD strength despite forecasts. USD Drivers: Fed's "higher for longer" stance (4.25%–4.50%) supports USD yield appeal. Carry Viability: The USD-funded carry (borrow AUD → invest USD) offers modest gains but requires hedging against AUD appreciation risks. Key Relationships Summary Concept AUD/USD Implication Current Status Yield Spread Negative (-17 bps) → USD yield advantage Favors USD investments UIP Condition AUD should depreciate; often fails AUD appreciation likely Carry Trade +0.53% carry (USD-funded) Profitable if AUD stable/weak Primary Risk AUD appreciation erodes carry returns Forecast: AUD ↑ to 0.67 Conclusion The negative yield spread (-17 bps) and interest rate differential (-0.40% to -0.65%) favor USD investments over AUD. UIP predicts AUD depreciation but historically fails; AUD is instead projected to appreciate to 0.67 in 2025. Carry trades borrowing AUD to invest in USD offer a +0.53% yield pickup but face significant risk from forecasted AUD strength. Investors should monitor RBA/Fed policy shifts and global trade tensions for carry trade adjustments. #AUDUSD
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by dkb14246
1
AUDUSD Potential Long - Dependent on PA Market openAUD/USD Long Setup – 15M Chart Analysis Looking at a potential long on AUD/USD after price tapped into demand and swept liquidity. The area aligns with a fair value gap and previous order block, suggesting interest from larger players. Two Entry Options: 1. Aggressive: Buy limit at the order block (riskier, no confirmation). 2. Conservative: Wait for break of structure, then retest into FVG with bullish price action for confirmation. Targets: Target 1: 0.6470 Target 2: 0.6480 Target 3: 0.6490 Extended Target: 0.6530 (only if 0.6490 is breached and price holds above) Important Notes: This setup is forecast-based and depends on how price opens and reacts. Entry should follow a clear confirmation, especially after a liquidity sweep. Ideal confirmation: Break of structure followed by a retest with bullish PA on lower timeframes (M5/M1). Invalidation: A clean break and close below 0.6430 would invalidate this idea. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan, not the prediction.
Long
by SKA_CAPITAL
AUDUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.6464 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 0.6495 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Long trade 🟢 Trade Journal Entry – Buyside Trade 📍 Pair: AUDUSD 📅 Date: Tuesday, June 17, 2025 🕒 Time: 3:00 PM (NY Session PM) ⏱ Time Frame: 1 Hour 📈 Direction: Buyside 📊 Trade Breakdown: Entry Price 0.64738 Profit Level 0.65380 (+0.99%) Stop Loss 0.64639 (−0.15%) Risk-Reward Ratio 6.48 : 1 🧠 Context / Trade Notes: 1HR TF Execution: Entry aligned with bullish OB on the 1hr chart following a clean mitigation and rejection candle. Stacked Confluences: Liquidity sweep, OB retest, and session timing aligned for a high-conviction buyside setup.
Long
by davidjulien369
AUDUSD – Intraday/Swing LongSetup: Intraday entry with swing target. Watching for long opportunity on AUDUSD Bias: Bullish – based on structure and support zone from higher TF. This exact setup was tested over 300+ trades across the last 2.5 years. It showed: – ~42% win rate - Profit Factor 2.9 – Average R:R = 4:1 – Profitability proven on major FX pair AUDUSD - Losing Streak 5 - Winning Streak 4 Execution: Limit order active until 0.64950 – will cancel if price reaches that level. ⚠️ Disclaimer ⚠️ This is not financial advice or an investment opportunity. I’m sharing my own approach based on long-term data and personal strategy development. If you want to trade like this – start with proper backtesting and understand your strategy's edge. Almost any strategy can be profitable – the key is in understanding the data and how to manage risk. 💡 For more trading ideas and insights, feel free to follow me here on TradingView!
Long
by TraderDominik
AUDUSD Will Go Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.646. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.643 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
AUDUSD Selling Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart AUDUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today AUDUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (AUDUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on AUDUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Chart
Short
by ForexMasters2000
AUDUSD LONG & SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25AUDUSD LONG & SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅4H Order block identified ✅1H Order block identified ✅15’ order block ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
by JCFRGNT
AUDUSD BEARISH AUD/USD Bearish Divergence – Sell Setup Pending Confirmation Description: AUD/USD is showing signs of weakness as a bearish divergence forms between price and RSI/MACD on the H1/H4 chart. While price makes higher highs, momentum indicators are printing lower highs — suggesting a potential shift in momentum. 🔽 Trade Setup: Entry: Sell Stop below recent swing low at Stop Loss: Above recent high at Take Profit 1: – Prior support zone Take Profit 2: – Extended fib target or next major support Risk/Reward: Minimum 1:2 R/R 📉 Technical Confluence: Bearish Divergence (RSI/MACD) Key Resistance Zone holding Rejection Candles / Wicks on higher timeframe Structure potentially forming Lower High 🔔 Trade Plan: Waiting for confirmation via sell stop trigger to avoid premature entries. Patience is key — only act if price breaks the structure with momentum. Monitor price action closely around the entry zone. 📊 Timeframe: H1 / H4 📍 Market Bias: Short-term Bearish
Short
by razashabbir218
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the pullback support. Pivot: 0.6497 1st Support: 0.6466 1st Resistance: 0.6510 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUDUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price could rise toward our sell entry level at 0.6499, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 0.6468, a support level. The stop loss is set at 0.6524, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu