AUDUSD too many instances to me for AUD due to it's volatility where a major dump follow by weeks of consolidation will return to at least tap that consolidation or sweep it. Price closed above .63 on the daily so I believe a fill to .636 is the next move before a rapid retracement to clean out the retail long sentiment before we're looking at targets like .65, .67, even .7+ in the longer term.
This was my high-time frame long bias posted on 13th of Jan, at this stage I would say the original short term anchor bias of .613 is too big of a target so will likely adjust that based of price action next week.
Again, the price action up to here was stimulated by comments from trump on Tariffs, one during a speech & one during an interview.
Any mention of tariffs or a breakdown of communication/negotiation with China will respectively see the move reversed.
Be adaptable, don't let impulse candles have you thinking about 1 way scenario, if this move up was more organic i'd be happily sitting in longs but with Trumpy in office, 1 tweet will send markets tumbling so I'd like to be certain.
AUDUSD Important news coming next week. If US keeps rates the same and the AUD has decent numbers, I'm betting this will fly. I think worst case scenario is sideways though.
US economic calendar news isn’t high liquidity news tonight exception of Trump headlines narrative if any more statements or discussions on his agenda seems quiet tame at this point. If weekly structure still holds above 0.6225 limited downside.
Yen hike today had no effect on the market possibly sending a message to the market on risk disposition
Key reaction levels for support
0.63
0.62927 closure above higher probability of continuation
0.62889
0.6270 closure above higher probability of continuation
0. 6250 element of uncertainty
3wk target 65 if this is the case
Bos ideally needs to hold above 0.62889 to infer market structure is holding and supportive of momentum shift continuation
Could also see this as a short term inducement play to generate more liquidity for SM time will tell. But I will be surprised if we see 613 again, never say never
AUDUSD Need the daily to close above .63 for a fill up to .636 next week, as it stands now, if we trail down into news, this daily candle is in danger of flipping bearish, in which case a closure back below .63 seems likely.
I do think today is incredibly important what price does for the weekly close to determine if we're bullish, or bearish going into next week.
(it's only 30 - 40 pips to flip this daily candle bearish, not unheard of for news events, be careful)
AUDUSD Have a feeling news tonight is going to be incredibly volatile given this move up happened during Asia off the back of nothing but speculation that Trump seems less likely to Tariff off one comment where he said he'd prefer not, which doesn't really say anything.
This big of a reaction off such a tiny comment is why i'm suspicious of this move up.