Exotic Post Modern "American" Currency?The success of "North American Currency" is interconnected with Exotic Post Modern "Latin American" Currency?
What is the future of Latin America Currency as a whole?
Latin American Currency or “Cash/Money” is by many standards some of most complex and significant “Exotic Currencies” on Earth. South American, Central America and the Caribbean include many independent countries all stabilizing (by decreasing the value) of their own independent and yet interconnected currencies. Currency in Latin America is perhaps the most isolated from Asian, European, Middle Eastern and even Africa and yet most closely affiliated and coordinated and mysteriously dependent to the United States Dollar. If the currencies in the “far east” are “exotic” then the “far west” is Latin America and its “jungle of currencies”.
The total gross domestic product of Latin America is about 5 to 10 trillion $USD or about ½ to ¼ the size of the United States Economy. The average person in Latin America makes about $10,000 per year.
There are three main modern accounts of “Latin American Currency History”. By “modern” we mean post-indigenous currency. The first being “post-indigenous” or “pre 90’s or 2001 a currency Odyssey” era, the second being the GREAT NEO-LATINO AMERICAN STABILIZATION PERIOD roughly mid 2004’s to 2014 a time when South America was becoming more valuable then North America in terms of respect for foreign currency. The final era is now (in the graph). The real problem is the Modern Erotic Latin American “Inflation Era” an Era that has seen “unbelievable Latin American inflation”. This started around 2014 and effects all of Latin America to this very day.
The primary Latin American Currencies are:
BRL: Brazilian Real: The “most valuable” and yet peculiarly unstable currency in Latin America.
ARS: Argentina Peso: One of the most stressful currencies on Earth loosing about ½ its value sometimes each year for years and years in a row (10+ to 20 years). Going from 1 to 1 with the $USD dollar to nearly 60 to 1 with about 6000% inflation over 20 years. The rest of Latin America maybe has no idea “how poor” and how much financial trouble Argentina is really in.
CLP: Chilean Peso: The Latin currency playing with a “historical financial sideline” a long time running back (promoting) “low value” currency with a “richer chilean latin” lifestyle.
MXN: Mexican Peso: Surprisingly the most “central” currency in Latin America. Not valued too much above or too much below any other currency. Every other currency is either “a little” above or “a little” below the Mexican Peso at 25 to 1. Mexico’s un-official exchange rate is “1 to 1” with the rest of Latin America and 25 to 1 the “highly-developed” North American World. The Mexican Peso makes it “surprisingly” easy to understand all the other currencies since its currency is “about the central or average or median currency”.
COP: Colombian Peso: One of the most important currencies in ALL of Latin America. An “explosively valuable and geographically momentous and philosophically important latin currency”. The “COP” is strategically important because of its close connection with Panama and Central America and also the “frontier of the Amazon jungle” and the only country in all of latin America that is connected to both the Caribbean and Pacific Coast and “indigenous” latin culture. A COP currency is valued at 4000 to 1 and as a result of its “low value” raises the “natural value” of ingenious life and “real food” and also increases the general “hate” of “fake money”. Many of the people in North West South America (Venezuela, Columbia, Peru, Ecuador are very independent “hight jungle” or “high mountain attitude” and have even relied on “drug” currency. Cocaine is accepted as a “natural viagra” similar to legalized marijuana or cannabis in North America and Europe. This region is a “geographic pivot” and a complex currency.
CRC: Costa Rican Colon: The Center of Central American Currency. Most currencies that are geographic centers around the world also become the “middle” or “average” currency with their two neighbors on either side being balancing currencies. So in Central America the “exchange rates” fluctuated in the “middle” if you are in the middle or the middle of Central America. Rather then “forcing” a 1 to 1 with the far far they simply peg the value of their currency to their neighbors which creates a “natural currency stability” or have a “fixed inflation” where they decrease the currency by a specific value (meaning a specific number of “pesos”) each year “on purpose” relative to another currency.
PYG: Paraguay (Guaraní): The most “worthless” currency in all of South America and also “the official center of official trade and real geographic center of South America”. 6000 to 1? Paraguay has “officially” helped all the other neighboring currencies in South America by “showing off what not to do”. Paraguay has been the least valuable currency for several decades. Can you imagine paying several THOUSAND for a coffee and police with actual machine guns on every block with no one in the street?
PEN: Peruvian Sol & GTQ: Guatemalan Quetzal: The Indigenous Currency “Heart” of Latin America is surprisingly one of the most stable and even more valuable currencies.
JMD: Jamaican Dollar: One of the most “independent” currencies in the Caribbean and a very important currency because it “floats a lot!”
UYU: Uruguayan Peso: For the first time in “history” the Uruguayan Peso is worth more and “trusted” more then its larger neighbor Argentina. Perhaps Uruguayan currency is the “once savior” of Argentina. Starting in 2018 the Uruguayan Peso was worth more then Argentinean Currency.
DOP: Dominican Peso and HTG: Haitian Gourde: Two of the most complex currencies in Latin America. Back in 2004 the Caribbean had some of the most important changes to its currency value in *all* of Latin American Currency history and Haiti and Dominican Republic are at the center of the “wild windy” “currency hurricanes” in the Caribbean.
Many of the currencies in Latin America do not follow traditional exchange rate rules or “common law” of 1 to 1, 10 to 1 or 100 to 1 or 1000’s to 1. In fact most of the Latin American Currency do not follow any “normal philosophical dealings” of “base 10”. Instead, Latin America has an entirely different “exotic exchange rate” that isn’t on a “base 10” system like in Asia making Latin American Currency “oddly” a floating social latin currency class. Currency in Latin America varies around mostly around “25 to 1” (Mexico) but also varies at 5 to 1 (Brazil) or 2 or 3 to 1 to 1 or 6000/4000/858/625/133/90/60 to 1.
Unlike the European Union there is no central latin American banking system or “latin peso like the euro” in Latin America. Its likely that a “united currency” would likely “help stabilize the United Stated Dollar” because of it would be at first competitive with North American Currency and then maybe even be more valuable then a North American Currency. Today Latin American is a Currency “jungle” of modern exotic currencies to “learn from”…
Hope this helps!
Asher
:)
USDBRL trade ideas
U.S. DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL (USDBRL) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
U.S. DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL (USDBRL) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
U.S. DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL (USDBRL) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
cup and handle Já imaginou o dólar a 7 reais ? com essas euforias de corona vírus e incertezas futuras. Existe um grande potencial de nos virmos todos os países de terceiro mundo ter uma grande depreciação de seu câmbio. e se o USD/BRL manter acima dessa linha amarela de tendência de alta, estaremos em mares nunca navegados, e também podendo ter mais um cup and handle de longo prazo. vamos ficar de olho nesse rompimento.
Have you ever imagined the dollar at 7 real? This euphoria of corona virus and future uncertainties. There is a great potential for us to see all third world countries have a great depreciation of their currency. and if the USD/BRL keeps above that yellow uptrend line we will be in seas never sailed, as it could also have another long-term cup and handle. let's see what can happen.
The US dollar rises against the Brazilian realThe US dollar rises against the Brazilian real as the global slump continues to loom over the market. Since Monday, the greenback has charged against the Brazilian real and is now on its fourth day of consecutive gains. Bulls are on full throttle mode since March began, propelling the 50-day MA significantly above the 200-day MA. As the globe confronts the devastating coronavirus pandemic, investors of the US dollar are taking it as an opportunity as markets across the globe act cautiously. Perhaps the damage brought by deadly COVID19 is one of the worst economic contractions for years, giving the beloved buck, the world’s leading global reserve currency, the upper hand in the foreign exchange market. As for the Brazilian real, it has reportedly hit its weakest level against the US dollar. And, unfortunately, it’s still projected to get even weaker as the pair is widely expected to reach its key resistance in the short-term trading.
Investors appear unhappy about the decision of the BRA presidentThe buck buckled last week, resulting in a slight upset for investors. However, it’s starting off the week with gains against the Brazilian real as investors appear unhappy about the decision and action of the Brazilian president. Yesterday, Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, reportedly went to the stressed and broke the own social distancing rules of the government. The president stirred controversy when he urged people to continue living life normally and keep the economy going. Of course, this leaves a sore in the eyes of investors Bolsonaro prioritizes the economy instead of the well-being of the country. As for the greenback, experts are saying that its rally isn’t over, and that the currency still has a lot of fuel in its tank to continue advancing. The rise of the greenback is largely due to the decreasing risk appetite for some major currencies. The USDBRL is widely expected to hit its resistance level by the first half of April.
US Dollar x Brazilian Real - Gravity will have its say?The USD has reached a strong resistance once again. Besides, the USD price has gone too far from the EMA200, there we can say the USD has become 'expensive'.
To enforce my short-term bearish view, comes the divergence between the price direction and both MACD and RSI. That's a strong indication that this bullish move has exhausted its strenght during its climbing.
Let us see if gravity will have its say in this situation.
Resistance areas: R$4.30 ~ R$4.60
Support areas: R$4.00 ~ R$3.80
Brazilian Real under fire - USDBRL Macro OutlookThe Brazilian Real remains under fire due to a weakening commodity outlook, continued coronavirus concerns and impacts on LATAM/emerging market assets, revisions in inflationary outlook (down to 3.25% for 2020) and subsequent shifts in future monetary stimulus, high gross debt to GDP (~80%) and continued capital outflow from asset markets.
All within a risk-off climate supporting dollar bids.
We continue to see compelling evidence for a leg higher from a technical perspective with price supported by its 52-Week Moving Average, completion of the first corrective leg and an extension into our macro swing target of 5.00xx. Around a +16.00% move on the cards from here.
We have added buyside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios.
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Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
$USDBRL Update....testing the big breakout level (---)Would target 5.40 (+26%) and would likely be driven by China slowdown-Coronavirus
Approximately 27% of Brazilian exports go to China
Currently 90m people in lock down and Bloomberg estimates 69% of Chinese GDP shut this week
Does it re-open next week or further lock downs?
USD/BRL will continue to move higher in the following daysThe pair will continue to move higher in the following days to reach its all-time high. The US trade deficit with China falls in 2019, its first time in six (6) years. Yesterday, February 05, the Commerce Department said deficit slips by 1.7%. Imports tumbled 1.7% while exports decrease by 1.3%. The curb in trades were amid the trade war between the two (2) largest economies and Trump’s “America First” policy. On December 14, the two (2) countries began to de-escalate their trade war by signing the phase one trade deal. Under the deal, China will need to increase its import of US agricultural products to a total of $40 billion annually. This will be catastrophic for Brazil who benefited during the heights of trade war. Before the phase one trade deal, Brazil accounts for 80% of total Chinese soybean imports. The deal already outshines the report published by Brazil. The country said its soybean output increased by 8% from the previous year.