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U.S. DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL REFERENCE RATE

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Investors appear unhappy about the decision of the BRA presidentThe buck buckled last week, resulting in a slight upset for investors. However, it’s starting off the week with gains against the Brazilian real as investors appear unhappy about the decision and action of the Brazilian president. Yesterday, Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, reportedly went to the stressed and broke the own social distancing rules of the government. The president stirred controversy when he urged people to continue living life normally and keep the economy going. Of course, this leaves a sore in the eyes of investors Bolsonaro prioritizes the economy instead of the well-being of the country. As for the greenback, experts are saying that its rally isn’t over, and that the currency still has a lot of fuel in its tank to continue advancing. The rise of the greenback is largely due to the decreasing risk appetite for some major currencies. The USDBRL is widely expected to hit its resistance level by the first half of April.
Long
by Financebroker
US Dollar x Brazilian Real - Gravity will have its say?The USD has reached a strong resistance once again. Besides, the USD price has gone too far from the EMA200, there we can say the USD has become 'expensive'. To enforce my short-term bearish view, comes the divergence between the price direction and both MACD and RSI. That's a strong indication that this bullish move has exhausted its strenght during its climbing. Let us see if gravity will have its say in this situation. Resistance areas: R$4.30 ~ R$4.60 Support areas: R$4.00 ~ R$3.80
Short
by FernandoHilario
1
Brazilian Real under fire - USDBRL Macro OutlookThe Brazilian Real remains under fire due to a weakening commodity outlook, continued coronavirus concerns and impacts on LATAM/emerging market assets, revisions in inflationary outlook (down to 3.25% for 2020) and subsequent shifts in future monetary stimulus, high gross debt to GDP (~80%) and continued capital outflow from asset markets. All within a risk-off climate supporting dollar bids. We continue to see compelling evidence for a leg higher from a technical perspective with price supported by its 52-Week Moving Average, completion of the first corrective leg and an extension into our macro swing target of 5.00xx. Around a +16.00% move on the cards from here. We have added buyside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios. ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
Long
by Portier
2
USD/BRL will continue to move higher in the following daysThe pair will continue to move higher in the following days to reach its all-time high. The US trade deficit with China falls in 2019, its first time in six (6) years. Yesterday, February 05, the Commerce Department said deficit slips by 1.7%. Imports tumbled 1.7% while exports decrease by 1.3%. The curb in trades were amid the trade war between the two (2) largest economies and Trump’s “America First” policy. On December 14, the two (2) countries began to de-escalate their trade war by signing the phase one trade deal. Under the deal, China will need to increase its import of US agricultural products to a total of $40 billion annually. This will be catastrophic for Brazil who benefited during the heights of trade war. Before the phase one trade deal, Brazil accounts for 80% of total Chinese soybean imports. The deal already outshines the report published by Brazil. The country said its soybean output increased by 8% from the previous year.
Long
by Financebroker
3
USD/BRL failed to breakout from a major resistance line𝔹𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕒, 𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕤𝕖, 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕜 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕞𝕪 𝕨𝕠𝕣𝕜. 𝕀 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕚𝕥. The pair failed to breakout from a major resistance line, sending the pair higher towards a major support line. The populist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has been leading South America since his election in January 2019. Known as the “Trump of South America”, he was able to gain full support for his plan to revive the largest trading bloc in the continent, the Mercosur, and banned Venezuela from the group. A recent report accuses Bolsonaro of orchestrating attacks to overthrow Nicholas Maduro. This comes at a time where the US has been very critical of the country, backing the opposition leader Juan Guaido to become Venezuela’s interim president. Moreover, Jair Bolsonaro praised the US for backing Brazil to become the newest member of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). Washington previously backed Argentina, Brazil’s main economic rival, to become the next member of the group.
by Financebroker
2