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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

Could the price bounce from here?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.4260 1st Support: 1.4154 1st Resistance: 1.4366 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDCAD BUYING SETUP USDCAD is showing a strong bullish setup, indicating a potential buying opportunity. The price is holding above key support levels, suggesting that buyers may soon take control. If price sustains above the support zone and confirms with bullish candlestick patterns or breakout signals, we could see an upward move toward the next resistance levels. Traders should wait for proper confirmations before entering and manage risk wisely. Stay alert for the next bullish move! 📈🔥 Technical Analysis by Ali Khan
Long
by Itsalikhaan
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.4240 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.4160 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.4364 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USD/CAD Short Trade SetupJust entered a bearish position on USD/CAD at 1.4350 with clear technical alignment. Price reached our sell zone after recent rejection from higher levels. Trade Details: Entry: 1.4350 (sell zone) Stop Loss: 1.4420 (above recent swing high) Take Profit 1: 1.4260 (previous support) Take Profit 2: 1.4150 (major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2 for first target, 1:3.5 for second target Price showing bearish momentum on multiple timeframes. The 1H chart confirms resistance at our entry level, while the 4H chart shows plenty of room to move down toward targets. Will update as trade progresses. Planning to secure partial profits at TP1 and move stop to breakeven for remainder.
Short
by ShlomoYahbes
1
USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Market Money Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (1.44500) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 1.39500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook before start the plan. USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Market is currently experiencing a bearish trend,., driven by several key factors. 1. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis evaluates the economic indicators of the United States and Canada that directly impact the USD/CAD exchange rate. United States Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: Forecasted at 2.0% to 2.5% for 2025, suggesting steady but slowing economic expansion. Inflation: Stable at approximately 2.5% to 3.0%, with recent data showing no significant surprises. Interest Rates: Currently at 4.50%, with the Federal Reserve potentially considering cuts later in 2025 if economic growth weakens. Trade Balance: The US maintains a persistent trade deficit, though it remains manageable given the broader economic context. Canada Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: Projected at 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025, indicating moderate growth heavily tied to commodity exports. Inflation: Around 2.0%, stable but sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices. Interest Rates: Set at 3.0%, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) likely to hold steady or adjust slightly based on incoming economic data. Trade Balance: Mixed, with oil exports being a critical driver of the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Key Insight: The interest rate differential (4.50% in the US vs. 3.0% in Canada) currently supports the USD. However, declining oil prices—a key factor for Canada—and potential Fed rate cuts introduce uncertainty into the fundamental picture. 2. Macroeconomic Factors Macroeconomic conditions provide a broader context for currency movements, encompassing global and country-specific trends. Global GDP Growth: Expected to range between 3.0% and 3.3% in 2025, reflecting moderate global economic expansion. US Economy: Exhibits signs of slowing growth, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious stance, potentially leading to rate cuts if economic conditions deteriorate. Canadian Economy: Strongly influenced by commodity prices, especially oil, which has faced volatility due to global supply and demand dynamics. Central Bank Policies: The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, while the BoC remains data-dependent, with possible rate adjustments if inflation or growth shifts significantly. Geopolitical Events: Trade tensions, including US-imposed tariffs, could pressure Canada’s economy, potentially weakening the CAD. Key Insight: Macroeconomic factors present a mixed outlook. Moderate global growth supports risk assets, but trade tensions and central bank caution create uncertainty for USD/CAD. 3. Global Market Analysis Global market conditions influence currency pairs through risk sentiment and economic interdependencies. Equity Markets: US and global equity indices are range-bound, reflecting uncertainty and mixed economic signals. Commodity Prices: Oil prices are under pressure, a bearish factor for the CAD given Canada’s role as a major oil exporter. Currency Markets: The USD shows strength against some currencies but weakness against others, lacking a dominant trend. Key Insight: Weak oil prices act as a headwind for the CAD, potentially pushing USD/CAD higher, though broader market uncertainty moderates this effect. 4. Commitment of Traders (COT) Data COT data offers insights into the positioning of large traders, shedding light on market sentiment. Large Speculators: Recent trends indicate a net short position on USD/CAD, suggesting bearish sentiment among big players. Commercial Traders: Positioning is mixed, with some hedging activity reflecting uncertainty in the market. Market Implications: The net short stance among speculators points to a bearish outlook, but it also raises the possibility of a crowded trade, increasing the risk of a short squeeze if the pair rallies. Key Insight: Bearish sentiment prevails among large traders, aligning with technical signals, though the concentration of shorts could lead to volatility. 5. Intermarket Analysis Intermarket analysis examines correlations between USD/CAD and other asset classes. Oil Prices: A strong inverse correlation exists between USD/CAD and oil prices. Falling oil prices typically strengthen USD/CAD by weakening the CAD. Commodity Currencies: USD/CAD often aligns with movements in other commodity-linked currencies like AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Equity Markets: A risk-on environment (rising equities) can pressure the USD downward, while risk-off sentiment bolsters it. Key Insight: Declining oil prices provide a bullish tilt for USD/CAD, but this is tempered by mixed risk sentiment across global markets. 6. Quantitative Analysis Quantitative analysis employs technical indicators to assess price trends and momentum. Moving Averages: The pair is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bearish trend. RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 45, the RSI is neutral but approaching oversold territory, hinting at potential downside exhaustion. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Positioned in negative territory, indicating bearish momentum. Chart Patterns: A bear flag pattern has been noted, with a potential downside target near 1.3164, suggesting further declines. Key Insight: Technical indicators predominantly point to a bearish trend, with the possibility of additional downside if key support levels are breached. 7. Market Sentiment Analysis Market sentiment reflects the collective psychology of traders and investors. Trader Sentiment: Surveys and positioning data indicate a bearish bias, with traders anticipating further declines in USD/CAD. Expert Opinions: Analysts largely recommend selling the pair, citing both technical and fundamental weaknesses. Social Media Trends: Discussions on platforms like X reveal mixed views, with some predicting a drop to 1.4000 and others warning of potential reversals. Key Insight: Sentiment leans bearish, consistent with technical indicators and COT data, reinforcing expectations of a downward move. 8. Positioning Positioning reveals how traders are aligned in the market, influencing potential price dynamics. Speculative Positions: Likely net short, based on COT data and sentiment surveys, indicating widespread bearish bets. Institutional Positioning: Mixed, with some institutions hedging against possible USD weakness. Market Impact: The heavy short positioning could trigger volatility if the pair moves against the consensus, such as in a short squeeze scenario. Key Insight: Bearish positioning dominates, heightening the risk of a sharp reversal if positive USD catalysts emerge. 9. Next Trend Move The next likely price movement is derived from current data and market conditions. Direction: Downward pressure is favored, driven by technical sell signals and bearish sentiment. Key Levels: Support: 1.4150; a break below could target 1.4000 or lower. Resistance: 1.4500; a move above could signal a trend reversal. Triggers: Upcoming economic data releases, central bank statements, or shifts in oil prices could catalyze the next move. Key Insight: The next trend move is likely to test lower support levels, potentially reaching 1.39500 if bearish momentum continues. 10. Overall Summary Outlook Overview: On March 6, 2025, with USD/CAD at 1.43000, the pair exhibits a bearish outlook. Technical indicators, bearish trader positioning, and market sentiment suggest downside risks. However, fundamental factors—such as declining oil prices and potential trade tensions—could provide some support for the pair. The market is at a pivotal point, with price action near key support levels likely to dictate the next direction. Future Prediction Trend: Bearish (Short-Term), with Potential for Reversal Details: Short-Term: The pair is poised to test support at 1.41500, with a possible decline to 1.39000 if this level breaks. This outlook is driven by technical weakness and bearish sentiment. Risks: A reversal could occur if oil prices rebound or if US economic data exceeds expectations, potentially pushing the pair toward 1.39000. Conclusion: The short-term forecast favors a bearish trend, supported by prevailing technical and sentiment signals. However, fundamental factors like oil prices and trade policies could cap downside or trigger a reversal, warranting close monitoring of upcoming data and events. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Short
by Thief_Trader
USDCAD...PULLBACK OR REVERSAL? Hello TradingView family! Hope you guys are all doing fantastic! Just wanted to come on here and provide some insight for you guys on USDCAD based on my 13 years of experience in these markets and with technical trading...SO let's dive in! OK so I am going to keep it very simple on this post for what I may see for USDCAD. You know what...lets go old school and do some bullet points for my bias...HERE WE GO 1. Failed to break multi year highs around 1.46800 zone of price (although it tried coming as high as 1.47800) 2. Gave a fake out (false breakout) above these highs 3. Very strong response from the seller (I like to say BOOM or BAM!) 4. #1 sign of a reversal is power/strength (which those sellers displayed) 5. Buyer has struggled to respond to that seller move (showing the seller dominance) 6. Fib retracement alignment/ Fib extension alignment (with a downward move happening) 7. New zones of supply created etc...etc...etc. I think you guys can see my point :) Lots of confluence! Lots of momentum! Lots of seller...stuff! SO what is next as a analyst/trader? WAIT...a traders least favorite word lol We must wait to see how this pullback (if we get one) comes in to show us the true dominance of the seller and the buyers showing us they are slowing down...because TECHNICALLY price is still in a uptrend...BUT my bias lies behind this being a REVERSAL...keep your eyes out! IF you guys enjoyed show some love boost this post, follow my page & comment if you'd like! Looking forward to the next time & hope this gives you all some good nuggets to use! Cheers!
Short
by JosePips
2
Canadian dollar higher as US suspends auto tariffsThe Canadian dollar is steady on Thursday after gaining around 1% over the past two days.  In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4351, up 0.07% on the day.  We could see some volatility from the Canadian dollar over the next two days, with the release of the Ivey PMI today and the employment report on Friday. The Trump tariff saga took a twist on Wednesday, as the US announced it would exempt automakers in Canada and Mexico from 25% tariffs for 30 days provided they complied with existing free trade rules.  Trump made clear that the trade war between the US and its two neighbors was not over. Trump has been shooting from the hip, imposing, suspending, and re-imposing tariffs against Canada. Is this merely a heavy-handed negotiation tactic?  If so, chances are good that a deal can be reached and a damaging trade war can  be averted.  Canada can ill afford a trade war with the US, as some 75% of Canadian exports head to its southern neighbor.  A trade war would tip the weak Canadian economy into a recession. The Bank of Canada is nervously watching as trade tensions escalate between Ottawa and Washington.  The BoC has said that a trade war with the US would inflict "permanent" damage on Canada's economy and boost inflation.  The BoC is in the midst of an easing cycle and a trade war would complicate plans to futher lower rates. Canada's Ivey PMI fell sharply in January to 47.1 from 54.7, its first contraction in five months. The PMI is expected to rebound in February, with a market estimate of 50.6, which would point to stagnation.  On Friday, Canada and the US release employment reports. 143.75 and 144.19 are the next resistance lines There is support at 143.00 and 142.56
by OANDA
USD/CAD – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!🔍 🚀 🔹 Asset: USD/CAD 🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart 🔹 Setup Type: Falling Wedge Breakout (Long Trade) 📌 Trade Plan (Long Position) ✅ Entry Zone: Above 1.43512 (Breakout Confirmation) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below 1.43098 (Invalidation Level) 🎯 Take Profit Targets: 📌 TP1: 1.44211 (First Resistance) 📌 TP2: 1.45058 (Extended Bullish Move) 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation 📉 Risk (SL Distance): 1.43512 - 1.43098 = 0.00414 per USD/CAD 📈 Reward to TP1: 1.44211 - 1.43512 = 0.00699 (1:1.7 R/R) 📈 Reward to TP2: 1.45058 - 1.43512 = 0.01546 (1:3.7 R/R) 🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy 📌 Falling Wedge Breakout: Price is breaking out of a downward trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal. 📌 Support Rejection: Strong bounce from 1.43098 support, confirming buyer interest. 📌 Breakout Confirmation Needed: Price should hold above 1.43512 with strong volume. 📌 Momentum Shift Expected: If price stays above 1.43512, an upside move to 1.44211, then 1.45058, is likely. 📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels 🟢 1.43098 – Stop-Loss / Strong Support 🟡 1.43512 – Breakout Level / Long Entry 🔴 1.44211 – First Resistance / TP1 🔴 1.45058 – Final Target / TP2 📉 Trade Execution & Risk Management 📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for high buying volume above 1.43512 before entering. 📉 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to break-even (1.43512) after TP1 (1.44211) is hit. 💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy: ✔ Take 50% profits at 1.44211, let the rest run toward 1.45058. ✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even (1.43512) after TP1 is reached. ⚠️ Fake Breakout Risk ❌ If price fails to hold above 1.43512 and drops back, exit early to avoid losses. ❌ Wait for a strong bullish candle close above 1.43512 before entering aggressively. 🚀 Final Thoughts ✔ Bullish Setup – Breakout from a falling wedge suggests a potential trend reversal. ✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation. ✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:1.7 to TP1, 1:3.7 to TP2. 💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀📈
Long
by ProfittoPath
USDCAD - 4H Chart Analysis📊 USDCAD - 4H Chart Analysis 🔹 Current Price: 1.43367 🔹 Key Resistance Levels: 1.43793 (First upside target) 1.45251 (Major resistance zone) 🔹 Key Support Zones: 1.42873 (Highlighted demand zone) 📈 Bullish Outlook: ✅ Price is approaching a strong demand zone at 1.42873, which aligns with a fair value gap (FVG). ✅ Possible bounce from this level towards 1.43793 before continuation to 1.45251. ✅ Fibonacci retracement levels suggest resistance near 1.4438 - 1.4474. 📉 Bearish Risk: 🔻 If price breaks below 1.42873, further downside towards 1.4100 is possible. 💡 Trading Plan: 🎯 Buy Setup: Look for bullish confirmation at 1.42873. 🎯 Take Profit: First TP: 1.43793 Final TP: 1.45251 🎯 Stop Loss: Below 1.4280. #USDCAD #ForexTrading #SmartMoney #Liquidity #TechnicalAnalysis #FVG 🚀
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
USDCAD reaches DEMAND ZONE! BUY!I have been following this pair for 2 weeks straight and I happened to take trade on thi zone when it formed. And it looks like price is revisiting our impulsive area of interest 📈 TRADE SETUP -If price holds onto this demand, BUY heavy until price reaches new highs or an unmitigated supply zone further up the trens. But why? Because our main trend is bullish. And after a perfect trend we usually see price take traders out by making 'supposedly' original zone for the valid one and fuel trend further. -IF THIS FAILS. WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AND TRADE WITH THE TREND. Price is in EQUILIBRIUM (50% Fibo) I hope the terms I used were simple enough for all, especially SMC and ICT. I personally trade supply and demand, while applying liquidity concepts. Please comment on this one!
Long
by ZIPHO67
USDCAD H4 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently testing our buy entry at 1.4304, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.4406, which is an overlap resistance level. The stop loss will be placed at 1.4221, which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
USD/CAD Bulls to Dominate @1.4500 Handle US President Trump renewed his threats to impose tariffs on Canada, noting that the latest delay was only for ‘30 days’, and is set to come back into effect next week. the loonie is under pressure as policy concerns continue to weigh. that being said, I am expecting this week or early March for the bulls to come in and dominate the @1.4500 Fair value area Before the aggressive bulls try and push the price a little bit higher aiming the @1.4600 handle Tp 1.44664 tp 2 aggressive trader aim @1.46364
Long
by que
3
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 5 March 2025 - USDCAD reversed from the resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.4300 USDCAD recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 1.4500 (which has been reversing the price from January) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – which stopped the earlier impulse wave 3. Given the strength of the resistance level 1.4500, USDCAD can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.4300.
Short
by FxProGlobal
2