USDCAD | 19.12.2024SELL 1.44300 | STOP 1.45000 | TAKE 1.43400 | A breakout and price consolidation below the level of 1.44000 will allow the trading instrument to continue its downward dynamics to the area of 1.43400-1.41600.
USDCAD trade ideas
Daily CLS, HTF FVG, Model 1Daily CLS, HTF FVG, Model 1
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
What is CLS?
This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets.
CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing.
Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
USDCAD Targets, Fall Lower On Further Profit Takes?Initial Dollar strength has waned post FED boost yesterday.
Lesser cut bets mean more feeding into USD.
BOC seemingly happy to ease, causing persistent weakness.
I would use the first exit target (south) for shorts. Sentiment case longer term still remains heavy USD.
USDCAD: One of the Most Geopolitical-Based Currency PairsHello Traders,
The Trump presidency may bring three significant changes to the financial world:
We might see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
We might see more support for Israel against Iran.
We might see increased tariffs on US imports.
All three changes could affect the pair in both directions, making them a double-edged sword for USDCAD.
Trump previously had good relations with Putin and is known for his anti-interventionism under his America First policy. Aid to Ukraine may decrease, which I am not in favor of, as Ukraine represents the frontline of democracy in the war against Putin. Abandoning Ukraine could encourage other dictators, like China, to attack other countries. Recently, Zelensky accepted the idea of temporarily giving up some territories to Russia if Russia allows NATO's presence in Ukraine, a negotiation he previously refused before Trump won the election.
A peace agreement or long-term ceasefire between Putin and Ukraine may strengthen the USD, as the world would feel safer, attracting more capital to the growing US economy. However, the strength of the USD against the EUR, the 2nd most powerful currency in the forex market, could also attract more capital to Euro.
The Abraham Accords were one of Trump's most successful initiatives. The proxy war between Israel and Iran escalated after the October 7 massacre, with Iran losing most of its proxies. Iran's missile capabilities have been tested and are now recognized as a weak, not-dangerous ability. Previously, Iran had three cards to play against Israel and the West: proxies, missiles, and nuclear capabilities. Now, it only has nuclear activities. Many are waiting for Israel to strike Iran's suspicious nuclear facilities. Such an attack could significantly impact the markets, particularly the CAD. There are two possible scenarios: if Iran does not retaliate due to its inability to do so, the USD would strengthen as more capital flows in. Conversely, if Iran manages to close the Strait of Hormuz for a few days, oil prices would rise significantly, prompting U.S. and Western intervention, leading to a prolonged conflict that would drive oil prices higher. Since Canada depends on oil and energy, any increase in prices would boost the CAD.
Regarding tariffs, imposing them may weaken the CAD, but as Trudeau stated, Americans “are beginning to wake up to the reality that tariffs on everything from Canada would make life a lot more expensive.” Canada would retaliate, and if the eurozone follows suit, the U.S. economy could be negatively affected. As forex traders, we know how powerful and important the U.S. is, but we also recognize that other economies have their strengths, and the world is not solely defined by the U.S. For instance, an official in Ontario's government mentioned that they would restrict electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota if President-elect Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on all Canadian products.
So, consider all three factors if you plan to invest long-term in either currency. For the shorter term, we should also keep these developments in mind, as they could happen at any moment. Any night, Israeli bombers could fly over Syria and Iran to target Iran's nuclear facilities, which could lead to a substantial gain in CAD value.
Right now, from a technical perspective: any retracement to the green box at 1.4190 could present an opportunity to increase the price of the pair. Conversely, a break below the channel and 1.41610 would signal a chance for more bearish moves.
Sources for US Tariffs on Canada:
apnews.com
apnews.com
OPPORTUNITY FOR SELL USDCADWe have these indicators for SELL opportunity:
- Reflection from the top of the parallel channel
- Strong resistance from two peaks (2016 and 2020)
- Low volume to continue the current direction
- Return/re-test to 1M high
We define 3 goals:
TP 1 = 40 pips
TP 2 = 100 pips
TP 3 = 200 pips
USDCAD MARKET CONDITION!!!!Since earlier this week, price has been in a trending market condition up until yesterday being Wednesday when the US government cut interest rate. Price got impacted by volatility. This market condition right now is highly unpredictable as the market may continue to surge higher or likely fallback. We’re looking forward to seeing market regain normal trending conditions before we resume trading activities in this pair.
#001 New2 DCA LONG USDCADOk, I decided to close all of my positions previously opened in NEW DCA and begin a new log because I want to tweak some things and I feel that those opened positions that goes into drawdown and then into profit isn't helping me mentally. So, I closed all of them out for maybe 3 or 4% loss, maybe at most 10$ loss, I am not sure.
New tweaks are as mentioned below,
- Buy when price is trending up, short when price is trending down.
- Pick the strongest products only for watchlist and potential trading.
How do we determine if something is trending up, or down, and how do we determine which is the strongest?
On the bottom left of tradingview chart, theres the 5D button. Or in the tradingview app, there's a overview option when we click into any pair. Select 5D range. The glowing price movement will tell you if price is trending up, down or sideways.
It is quite easy to tell which one is trending, ranging, and their strength.
If one is doing it on laptop browser, then, click on the bottom left's 5D range button, and then use a vertical line to mark the first day of the 5D range (from the left most).
Then, zoom in or out to fit the entire 5 days on the chart, and try to not show as much of the price movements on the left beyond the 5D range. This is to prevent clouding ones judgement.
Strong price movements should be in your face. It moves in one direction so strongly you just know it. Besides that, another clue is price making higher high, higher low for up trend and lower low and lower high for down trend.
Avoid ranging or weak trending markets.
Go for the strongest movements only.
Now that we have understood the settings and preferred price action, we are going to look at chart type next.
I am going to keep it simple. I will be using the line chart for the most part.
Avoid clouding your judgment with too much moving parts. There will be time where candlesticks come into play but those are not the rule. And even if we forgo candlesticks completely, we are not missing out anything at all, because the current price and the previous closed prices is all we need to know about how the market feels in the end.
Third, is to mark out the previous higher highs and higher lows, vice versa for short. I would like to think it is always easy and very clean movements. But that should actually be the fact. Because if price isn't moving cleanly, then if we choose to be a part of the movement, we are just entering into states of unrest within our minds. And then we begin to have other thoughts and bs and we change things again.
I hope that this changes I am going to implement would be the last for a long time.
Besides the forex market, there's gold and stocks, indices. I shouldn't be focusing on the forex market all the time. If there's prettier flowers else where I should go to those gardens and admire other peoples flowers too. Possibly supporting their bouquet business too because it is all about "Guan Xi".
Anyway, I hope this is the last.
I have been missing out on tons of action on other products such as bitcoin, GameStop, NVDA, Gold, JPY carry trade, and other shit. I have to broaden my worldly outlook, instead of hoping that only this shit works out.
And I only focused on this piece of shit because I have limited funds, but now that my partner is also with me on this trading and investing journey, and also that I am feeling much much better mentally wise after years of suffering, I should chase what moves instead of hoping I could heal the dead horse with my superior post flop folding skills.
1712SGT 18122024
Commodity currencies are struggling | FX ResearchThe commodity block currencies have been hit hard of late and are once again extending declines to multi-month lows against the US dollar. We're seeing clear divergence in monetary policy outlooks with deteriorating economic data in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada weighing on the respective currencies, while the added risk of trade wars only makes things that much more challenging.
Of course, the Canadian dollar is also contending with political drama in Canada amidst a string of key resignations. Economic data has more or less been softer in most major economies outside of the US, including the Euro area. On Tuesday, US data went the other way again with retail sales coming in above forecast. It's been fairly easy to understand why the US dollar has been so well bid and US equities remain propped up.
Key standouts on Wednesday's calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, US housing starts, and building permits, and of course, the Fed decision late in the day.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
USDCAD: Consolidation Phase Towards The TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a buying opportunity around 1.42800 zone, USDCAD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.42800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
FOMC rate meeting is unlikely to deter USDCAD buyersIn October 2024, USDCAD triggered a complex inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming for 747 days. This pattern suggests a potential move of 777 pips to the upside, with the pair still roughly 375 pips away from the 1.4672 target.
In the short term, if the price dips but holds above last Thursday's low of 1.4130, buyers will likely step in and push the price higher.
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USDCADUSDCAD is going to reversal from here.
Bearish divergence also shown in RSI.
market sentiment is also bearish .
We sell at CMP.
Correction According to the behavior of the price in the range of the current ceiling, possible scenarios have been identified. It is expected that a change in the trend will take place and we will see the beginning of the correction process
USDCAD upside target 1.4560On the weekly chart, USDCAD maintains an upward trend, and bulls are strong. USDCAD may continue to rise. Currently, we can pay attention to the support around 1.4270. If it falls back and does not break, we can consider continuing to buy. The upward target is around 1.4560.
USDCAD-SELL strategy 3 hourly GANN SQThe pair broke through 1.4250 zone, and now we are near the next resistance level 1.4340 zone.
It is heavily overbought, like so many other pairs. Stochastic high and MFI well quite extreme, so over time we will see corrective action, is my viewpoint (and no issue when we disagree).
Strategy SELL @ 1.4310-1.4335 area and take profit near 1.4178.
Do you think we might be witnessing a target shooting?
Hi dears
How are you?
If the orange line breaks down, it could be an attractive target.
What do you think, buddy?
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42Overall still bullish on USDCAD as my Elliott Wave Theory strategy predicts little upside is left, AFTER a retracement.
⭕️Wave 3 (III) Complete.
⭕️Wave 4 (IV) Correction & Final Wave 5 (V) Bullish Leg Yet Pending.
⭕️DXY Bullish, Meaning USDCAD Is Still Bullish.
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)
What did I tell you all 3 days ago? Wave III has completed, so we should expect a retracement down towards Wave IV. USDCAD has dropped 150 PIPS towards our supply zone, so well done if you caught short term sells!
Price is now rejecting our supply zone with bullish momentum, so you can start looking to getting into buys towards major Wave V & major Wave Y.
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)Remember my USDCAD analysis posted 3 weeks ago? Market moved exactly how I said it would. We saw Wave III create its top, which led to sellers coming in & pushing price down towards our Wave IV zone.
Bulls came back in rejecting our Wave IV zone & now running 115 PIPS in profit towards our Wave V (Major Wave Y) target!
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)To no surprise, our USDCAD buy analysis worked out to perfection! Beautiful rejection from our Wave IV support zone & shot up 300 PIPS in profit towards our Wave V (Major Wave Y) target. Close out this trade now if you're still holding🔥
USDCAD H1 ANALYSISUSD/CAD: Bullish Momentum Fades, Downward Correction Expected
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading near 1.4280, but its upward momentum is losing steam. Following softer Canadian inflation data and robust US Retail Sales, the pair appears poised for a downward correction.
Key Points:
- Weaker Canadian inflation data fuels expectations for additional BoC rate cuts.
- Strong US Retail Sales data bolsters the US dollar.
- Markets eagerly await the crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting for further guidance.
- Potential correction targets: 1.4200, 1.4050
Best Wishes Tom 😎
USDCAD OUTLOOKOn the 12 months chart, price shows an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years to complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
Once this region is contacted, we are likely to see bearish order flow setting in
USD/CAD Price Action: CAD Hits Record Lows Against US DollarRecent developments have significantly impacted the USD/CAD pair, pushing it above 1.4200, marking the Canadian dollar's lowest level against the US dollar since March 2020. This decline is driven by the recent resignation of Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, sparking political and economic uncertainty amid ongoing tariff policy disputes with the US. The Bank of Canada's decision to lower its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, following weak GDP growth data, has further pressured the CAD. Despite stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending, the BoC has signaled a pause on aggressive future rate cuts, leaving room for potential economic adjustments in response to growth and inflation challenges. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook on inflation and a robust labor market points to a cautious approach on rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength. As uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and economic data unfold, traders should closely monitor these developments to anticipate further USD/CAD movements and make informed trading decisions.
