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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

What is the upside potential above the 1.39 level?Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the closely watched April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data during the North American trading session. As a key inflation indicator, this data will significantly impact the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada (BoC). The daily chart of USD/CAD exhibits notable technical pattern shifts: Technical Analysis Breakout and Resistance Zone Test The pair has recently breached the 1.3900 psychological level and is currently testing a critical resistance zone. A double-bottom reversal pattern formed after prices rebounded from the recent low of 1.3749, signaling potential bullish momentum for a trend reversal. The MACD indicator has shown a decisive upward pivot, with the DIFF line crossing above the DEA line (forming a "golden cross"), and the histogram shifting from green to red, confirming that upward momentum is accumulating. Market Sentiment Current market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism, as traders weigh technical bullish signals against the potential fundamental volatility triggered by the CPI release. Key Implications of CPI Data Higher-than-Expected Inflation: If the CPI exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the BoC’s hawkish stance, potentially pushing USD/CAD lower toward the 1.3850–1.3800 support level. Lower-than-Expected Inflation: A softer CPI may fuel expectations of BoC policy easing, driving USD/CAD toward the 1.4000–1.4050 resistance zone. Trading Considerations Bullish Scenario: A daily close above 1.3950 would validate the breakout, targeting 1.4080 (the measured move derived from the double-bottom pattern). Bearish Scenario: A rejection at the resistance zone, combined with weak USD momentum, could trigger a retracement to 1.3820 (the neckline of the double-bottom). Risk Management: Traders are advised to set tight stop-loss orders around key levels (e.g., below 1.3880 for bullish positions, above 1.3980 for bearish positions) ahead of the data-induced volatility. The CPI report represents a pivotal inflection point, with the potential to either reinforce the technical breakout or prompt a trend reversal. Market participants should monitor real-time data releases and subsequent BoC communications for directional cues.
by Ashbur
Canada's inflation eases, Canadian dollar edges lowerThe Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3920, down 0.21% on the day. Canada released the April inflation report, which indicated that headline and core inflation were moving in opposite directions. Headline CPI dropped sharply to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.3% but shy of the market estimate of 1.6%. This was the lowest annual inflation rate in seven months. The sharp drop was driven by the end of the consumer carbon tax, with gasoline prices dropping 18% lower compared to April 2024. Core inflation accelerated in April, with two key indicators rising to an average of 3.15%, compared to 2.85% in March. This was above the market estimate of 2.9%. The money markets have responded to the inflation data, lowering the probability of a rate cut at the June 4 meeting to 48%, down from 65% prior to the inflation release. The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its easing cycle, trimming rates seven straight times from June 2024 until April, when it held rates. The cash rate is currently at 2.75% but the BoC is hesitant to lower in the midst of the uncertainty over the US trade tariffs, which have led to sharp swings in the stock markets. There are no US events on the calendar and the markets will be all ears as a host of FOMC members make public statements today. Investors will be looking for insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates in June and may cut as little as twice in the second half of the year. That could change, depending on inflation, the US labor market and Trump's tariffs. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3936. Below, there is support at 1.3911 There is resistance at 1.3952 and 1.3977
by OANDA
USDCAD price squeeze in progressYou can go short near the upper trendline, but it's probably best to wait for the breakout to happen in the next few days. This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk so carefully managing your capital and risk is important. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
We are watching USDCAD today and on ThursdayCanadian CPIs and PPIs are coming out on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Let's dig into the numbers. FX_IDC:USDCAD MARKETSCOM:USDCAD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D20 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D20 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅15' order block identified ✅Weekly 50 EMA ✅Daily 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
USD/CAD H4 | Overlap support at 50% Fibonacci retracementUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.3894 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.3840 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.4004 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USD/CAD Coiled for Breakout Ahead of Canada CPIThe USD/CAD rally failed into confluent uptrend resistance at the 200-day moving average last week with price breaking below the median-line today in early U.S. trade- threat for a deeper set-back here towards the 2022 high close / 2023 high at 1.3881/99 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.3852. Losses would need to be limited to this slope IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 200DMA (currently ~1.4016) needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Keep in mind we have Canada CPI on tap tomorrow. -MB
by FOREXcom
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 19 - 23 MayMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rate Decision, Canada & UK Inflation Rate, Earnings Reports In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode, we discuss: — RBA’s Interest Rate Decision — Inflation Rate in Canada — Inflation Rate in the UK — Corporate Earnings Statements Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.4085 1st Support: 1.3766 1st Resistance: 1.4262 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDCAD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off the 50% FiboBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.3894, a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.4024, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.3830, below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
Bullish momentum to extend?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3893 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3837 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.4061 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
"USD/CAD Comprehensive Analysis: Fundamental, Technical, & Risk" 📘 1. Fundamental Analysis From a fundamental perspective, the current movement of USD/CAD is still influenced by the strength of the US Dollar which remains solid, especially due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period. The US Dollar is supported by relatively stable US economic data and has not provided a strong reason for the Fed to loosen monetary policy quickly. On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar is still weak due to the decline in crude oil prices—Canada's main export commodity—which has put pressure on the CAD. With this condition, the USD remains superior to the CAD in the short term. However, the market is also waiting for important catalysts from the release of Canadian inflation data and speeches by Fed officials next week. As long as the DXY (US Dollar Index) remains stable above 104.50 and there is no significant spike in oil prices, the upward pressure on USD/CAD is expected to continue. 2. Technical Analysis Technically, USD/CAD is in a strong uptrend, marked by a "higher high and higher low" structure on the 4-hour timeframe. The price has broken through the resistance of 1.3925 and is now moving in the area of ​​1.39650. The MACD indicator shows a positive histogram that is still widening, while the RSI is in the range of 69—indicating strong bullish momentum but starting to approach overbought. ADX reaching 31 strengthens the signal that the current trend is quite solid and worth following. On the 1 hour and 15 minute timeframes, it can be seen that the price is making a minor retest after the breakout with a healthy pullback pattern. There are no signs of a significant reversal, and volume remains maintained. With this structure, the buy on pullback setup is considered the optimal scenario, with the ideal entry zone at 1.3935–1.3945. 3. Risk Management In the risk management framework, a long position in the 1.3935–1.3945 zone has a very good risk-to-reward ratio of around 1:2.57 with the first profit target at 1.4200 and the follow-up target at 1.4050. Stop loss is placed safely below the minor support area at 1.3832 to avoid whipsaws from market noise. The probability of success based on the history of similar setups and current indicator conditions is around 79%, with a strategy confidence level above 85%. However, traders are advised to wait for confirmation in the form of a bullish candle and volume spike when the price enters the pullback zone, in order to avoid premature entry. Positions should not be executed if the DXY shows a strong bearish reversal, or if the price of WTI crude oil spikes sharply, as it could suddenly strengthen the CAD.
Long
by Chano_Tenggara