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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD: The US Dollar in a Trap! Ready for a Rebound?Technical Overview: The monthly chart of USD/CAD shows a weakening phase of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Currently, the price is located at a key support zone around 1.3800. The RSI suggests a potential technical rebound, but the bearish structure remains intact until the resistance at 1.4000 is broken. Seasonality: According to seasonal trend data, the month of May historically shows a slightly positive trend for USD/CAD: 20 years: +0.0017 15 years: -0.0027 10 years: +0.0014 5 years: +0.0039 2 years: -0.0020 This trend highlights a historical short-term weakness (2 years), while over longer periods, the movement is marginally positive. COT Report: COT data shows an increase in long positions on the dollar (+2,158 contracts), while short positions also increased (+2,817 contracts). This suggests uncertainty among institutional traders, with a slight inclination towards short positions. Market Sentiment: Data indicates that 65% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, while only 35% are long. This could signal a potential squeeze if the price breaks above resistance levels. Operational Conclusion: Considering the bearish pressure and technical structure, a prudent strategy could include: Long Entry: Above 1.4000 with confirmation on lower timeframes. Stop Loss: Below 1.3800 to minimize exposure to false breakouts. Primary Target: 1.4200, then 1.4400. Alternative Strategy: If the price rejects the 1.4000 resistance, consider shorting towards 1.3700.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
USDCAD Key Levels in SightUSDCAD is mirroring the DXY’s broader trend — rebounding off oversold momentum levels last seen in 2021 and facing resistance due to softer US economic data. • Bullish scenario: A break and hold above 1.4020 may open the way for gains toward 1.4080, 1.4150, and 1.4270. • Bearish scenario: A decisive break below 1.3930 could trigger further downside toward 1.3830, 1.3750, and 1.3600. Key Events to watch for next week: - Canadian CPI on Tuesday - Canadian Retail Sales on Friday - US Trade Deal Developments Written by Razan Hilal,CMT
by FOREXcom
USD/CAD(20250516)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rate is no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% in April. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3972 Support and resistance levels: 1.4020 1.4002 1.3990 1.3953 1.3941 1.3923 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3972, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3990 If the price breaks through 1.3953, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3941
Short
by Toml1314
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D16 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D16 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅15' order block identified ✅4 Hour order block ✅4 Hour 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
USDCAD: Bullish Wave on the Horizon?USDCAD: Bullish Wave on the Horizon? From early April to early May, USDCAD moved within a broad accumulation pattern without a clear direction. However, in the past week, the pair made its first bullish wave, climbing nearly 260 pips. Now, USDCAD appears to be accumulating once again, potentially setting up for another bullish wave. If this momentum continues, the price may extend toward the 1.4100 and 1.4200 levels. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
7
USDCAD Is Bullish! Long!The USD/CAD exchange rate consolidated near 1.3980 during the European trading session, after the Canadian dollar (CAD) came under pressure due to falling crude oil prices, enabling the pair to recover earlier losses. Given that Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the U.S., declining oil prices typically dampen CAD sentiment. USD/CAD is displaying a complex technical trend. On the daily chart, the price is currently consolidating around the 1.3980 level. The pair has rebounded from a recent low of 1.3749 and is now attempting to break through the key psychological barrier of 1.4000. If it can surpass both the 1.4000 psychological level and the 1.4050 resistance, further upside toward 1.4150 could be possible. On the downside, key support lies at 1.3890 (the lower edge of the recent consolidation range) and 1.3749 (the recent low). you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
1
Long trade 1Hr TF overview 30 TF entry 🟩 Buyside Trade Log 📈 Pair: USD/CAD 🏷️ Type: Intraday | Tokyo Session PM 🧠 Setup: Breakout 🆔 Trade ID: #USDCAD-0512A 📅 Date: Monday, 12th May 2025 🕔 Time: 5:00 PM 🔹 Entry Price: 1.39273 🔹 Profit Target: 1.41764 (+1.79%) 🔹 Stop Loss: 1.38991 (-0.20%) 🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 8.83 🔍 Reasoning: Price action context Buyside trade initiated based on Wyckoff methodology, identifying accumulation phases during the Tokyo PM session. Breakout entry was timed as price moved out of the accumulation zone, aligning with Phase D, where price begins to mark up toward higher liquidity zones.
Long
by davidjulien369
DECISION OF THE CHIEF VILLAGE BEARJust yesterday, the bears in the woods came into the city, we travelled all the way into Arkansas on AUDUSD but were later deported back to Australia after we hit a Stop loss (a rough ride I must add). Afterwards, the village Chief Bear called for a Bear meeting earlier today and I was present in that meeting. We did not like the deportation style and I could tell you that emotions were heightened in that meeting...damn!. CONCLUSION: The Village Chief Bear decided to send some mercenaries yet again into the city to scout for a flowing river full of fish and also a very nice bee hive, large enough to feed the community, and I am one of them. To carry this out, we need an FVG at a region where we observed some foul play of price. Price action demands that it will come back to that region and as such, we took our strike almost after everything SEEMS right. I am with a bag of fish just incase we get ambushed (do with this info whatever you can), I hope we won't be jailed before being deported this time.
Short
by Iron-D
1
USDCAD Is Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.398. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.401 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1