USDCAD / U.S. Dollar – Canadian Dollar (4H) – ABC Bearish PatterUSDCAD / U.S. Dollar – Canadian Dollar (4H) – ABC Bearish Pattern Completion at PCZ
Pattern Overview:
Pattern Type: ABC Bearish (Potential Reversal)
Asset: USDCAD
Timeframe: 4H
Trade Type: Short Bias – Rejection observed near PCZ zone
🔎 Key Levels
XA: 1.37880 → 1.35574
AB: 1.35574 → 1.37742
BC: Completed right into the PCZ, aligning with 127.2% and 161.8% projection zones
Rejection confirmed below 1.3774, entering pullback
📐 Fibonacci Extensions & Key Ratios
127.2% Projection: 1.37368
161.8% Extension: 1.37855
Retracement Target Zone (PCZ/Support):
50.0% = 1.36842
61.8% = 1.36629
💡 Price Action & Setup
The price has completed a textbook ABC structure into a confluence projection zone (PCZ), showing signs of exhaustion at 1.3774. This area aligns with a previous swing high and fib confluence, now acting as resistance.
The first leg of the pullback is underway, and momentum is favoring a deeper move toward the 1.3680 – 1.3660 PCZ, which aligns with key fibs and 200 SMA support.
🧠 Market Sentiment
DXY consolidating near highs – potential exhaustion
Crude oil stabilizing supports CAD
CAD correlation is enhancing bearish weight on this pair post-ABC
📊 Next Potential Movement
Targeting the 1.3680–1.3660 support cluster
If PCZ fails to hold on any retest → potential continuation down toward 1.3600 swing
Resistance to watch: 1.3737–1.3750 (any candle close above this weakens setup)
🛡 Risk Management
Short entries from the 1.3760–1.3770 area are valid
Stop-loss ideally above 1.3790 (beyond 161.8%)
Scaling out near 1.3680 and 1.3660, both technical targets and 200 SMA confluence
📌 Conclusion
Price completed a high-probability ABC Bearish structure and is now reacting from a strong confluence zone. While confirmation is still unfolding, momentum favors downside, and all eyes are on the next leg toward the PCZ support range.
“Bearish patterns are warnings, not guarantees. But confluence zones give them authority.”
