USDCAD trade ideas
USD/CAD Trend During US Trading SessionUSD/CAD news:
🔆The USD/CAD pair rose to 1.4200 during the European session on Friday, after hitting a three-day low of 1.4166. The pair gained momentum as the US dollar recovered, with the US Dollar Index bouncing back near 106.65 after hitting a yearly low of 106.30 the previous day.
🔆However, the greenback's recovery appears to be temporary, as its risk premium eases while investors assess US President Donald Trump's tariff policies
🔆On monetary policy, Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates at current levels, citing uncertainty over Trump's trade and tax plans.
🔆Investors are now awaiting Canada's December Retail Sales data and a speech by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem at an event in Mississauga, Ontario.
Personal opinion:
🔆The dollar continues to decline, mainly due to President Trump's unclear tariff policies. Although traders still believe that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will further loosen monetary policy.
Technical analysis:
🔆Based on important support - resistance and Fibonacci levels combined with SMA indicator
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell USD/CAD 1.4198 – 1.4215
❌SL: 1.4255 | ✅TP: 1.4160 – 1.4120 – 1.4080
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USDCAD SELL SETUPSELL Setup – High-Probability Trade
(Valid IF price retraces into a premium zone & confirms bearish rejection.)
📌 Key Confluences for Sells:
✔ HTF Bearish Trend Confirmed.
✔ Unmitigated Bearish Order Block (OB) at 1.4250 - 1.4300.
✔ Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Mitigation Zone at 1.4230 - 1.4260.
✔ Premium Zone = Institutional Sell Area.
✔ Next Target = Sell-Side Liquidity Below 1.4150 & 1.4100.
✅ Sell Plan
Entry Zone: 1.4230 - 1.4260 (Institutional Supply Zone).
Stop Loss (SL): Above 1.4320 (Safe from stop hunts).
Take Profits (TPs):
TP1: 1.4150 (First Liquidity Pool).
TP2: 1.4100 (Major SSL Target).
TP3: 1.4050 - 1.4000 (Extended TP).
Trade Type: Intraday / Trend Continuation Short.
Confidence Level: HIGH (Strong HTF Confluence).
🔹 Execution Strategy:
✔ Option 1: Aggressive Sell → Limit Order at 1.4230 - 1.4260.
✔ Option 2: Confirmation Sell → Wait for bearish BOS under 1.4180, then enter on pullback.
Could the Loonie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.4140
1st Support: 1.4073
1st Resistance: 1.4245
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Short I opened a short position based on the following reasons:
1) Daily candle on the 13th Feb decisively broke and closed below the support line around 1.430 zone and created fair value gap.
2) The price retraced to the FVG area and closed below the area this morning (I am looking at 4H and 1H for this).
3) Both MACD and RSI in Daily and 4H are in the bear zone.
4) 4h MACD has just crossed in the bear zone and is moving to the downside.
5) 4H MACD is also showing hidden divergence which indicates the continuation of the down trend.
6) 4H EMA is below EMA 200 and the candle closed below EMA 21.
Entry price 1.4190
Stop Loss: 1.43 (just above EMA 200 in 4H. It is a general stop and I will move it soon if the price moves to the downside)
Profit target: 1.3975 (I might manually close it if the price struggles to go below 1.4000)
Risk: Reward is 1:1.65
USDCAD USD/CAD is the currency pair that represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD). It indicates how many Canadian dollars are needed to buy one U.S. dollar.
This pair is heavily influenced by oil prices (since Canada is a major oil exporter), interest rate differentials between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and overall economic conditions in both countries. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar strengthens, often causing USD/CAD to decline, and vice versa.
Potential bullish bounce?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4140
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.4074
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.4239
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDCAD key trading level at 1.4260The USDCAD currency pair intraday sentiment appears bearish, supported by the confirmed loss of support of the longer-term sideways consolidation trading range. However, since the spike caused by the possible tariff announcement on 03rd February 2024, the USDCAD price action is displaying signs of bearish behaviour.
The key trading level is at 1.4260. An oversold rally from the current level and a bearish rejection at 1.4260 level could target additional downside support at 1.4150 followed by the 1. 4100 and 1.4025 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, an oversold rally from the current levels and a confirmed breakout above 1.4260 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for a further rally and a retest of 1.4300 resistance followed by 1.4350 and 1.4400 levels.
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USDCAD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Rejection at Daily AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Round Psych Level
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.89
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDCAD SHORT incomingUSDCAD looks to be setting up for a nice short, its not quite ready yet and needs to break this small consolidation range and then fail at around 1.46 which has a major resistance zone.
The idea has a number of confluence points with the DXY looking top heavy and too coinciding movement hitting a major resistance above 110 at 113.
NFP news was good for the dollar which we saw it pump. More fundamentals in the near future will determine the WHEN for this move to start.
Technically we are poised for the reversal with a target of 1.39, a support area and 0.618 fib zone.
Currently we are trading at the high end of the trend with the RSI stating overbought territory.
This may not play out next week and may take another couple of weeks. Forth coming events are USD - inflation rate data and CPI.
Do you own analysis and please let me know your thoughts.