USDCAD setting up for sell opportunitiesHello,
USDCAD is gearing up for a potential drop on the 8-hour timeframe. From a technical perspective, the pair is currently in a corrective phase after a strong bearish move from the recent highs. As price nears key moving averages, we anticipate the correction to complete, paving the way for another leg down. The MACD is also approaching the zero line, signaling that sellers could be preparing to take control.
On the fundamental side, this week is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility. Key catalysts include:
Wednesday: FOMC meeting minutes release & a speech from President Trump.
Thursday: Initial jobless claims and crude oil inventory data.
Friday: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Global Services PMI.
These events are expected to influence the US dollar significantly. A weaker dollar could favor further downside in USDCAD. Additionally, trade policy remains a major market driver—Trump had initially imposed tariffs on Canada but later postponed them for a month, adding another layer of uncertainty.
With both technical and fundamental factors aligning, we maintain a bearish outlook on USDCAD in the near term. You can trade this pair using brokers that integrate with TradingView. tradingview.com/brokers/ such as TradeNation.
Good luck!
USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD SELL1.4h
2.dnt
3.resist
4.symmetrical exp triangle
5.rsi40/sto67/volbearish
6.
7.fibext below
8.fibretrac below
9.
10.
11.
12.bearish divergence
13.evening doji star
14.bearish
1.2h
2.dnt
3.resist
4.symmetrical exp triangle
5.rsi43/sto4/volbearish
6.
7.fibext below
8.fibretrac below
9.
10.
11.
12.bearish divergence
13.spining bottom
14.bearish
UCAD Bears Turn Liquid After 4% Decline From Feb. HighOANDA:USDCAD has been trading in a Sideways Consolidation for 2 months now and last week finally delivered a Breakout!
After the massive rally to 1.47926, price immediately plummeted down to not only fall back into the Consolidation Range but to then Breakout of the Support of that Consolidation.
This Breakout is followed by massive Bearish Volume on top of RSI breaking down below 50!
Price has satisfied all the Breakout Rules determining its validity, now to wait for a Retest of the broken support around the 23.6% Fibonacci Level or approx. 1.43 area for potential Short Opportunities to take down to the 1.41 area!
Fundamentally,
USD:
Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing Index/ President Trump Speaks
Wednesday - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - Unemployment Claims/ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/ Crude Oil Inventories
Friday - Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI/ Existing Home Sales
CAD:
Tuesday - CPI
Friday - Retail Sales/ BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
CACIB: Go long USDCADUSD/CAD’s fair value fell from 1.4523 to 1.4420 due to a fall in the USCanada short-term rates spread as well as a rise in global equities, which was partly offset by a rise in the US-Canada box yield spread. USD/CAD remains more than 1.5 standard deviations undervalued. The FAST FX
model has triggered a long USD/CAD trade with a stop-loss of -1.79% and a take-profit level of 1.4420.
USD/CAD finds support (but 1.40 still beckons)USD/CAD has spent most of the past two weeks stuck on sell mode, after its short-lived rise to the 22-year high of 1.48 came crashing down thanks to tariffs being delayed.
Due to bears closing shorts on CAD futures and bulls shying away from long USD bets, my core view is for USD/CAD down to 1.40, just above the 2022 high. But over the near term it shows the potential for a bounce towards 1.43.
Last week's low stalled around a weekly VPOC and November high. A small bullish hammer and inside-day doji also formed around the 100-day EMA, while a bullish divergence also formed on the daily RSI (2) in the oversold zone.
Bulls could seek dips towards the weekly VPOC in anticipation of a bounce to 1.4250, while prices hold above last week's low. At which point we can revisit its potential to roll over once more, in line with the core bias outlined above.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and forex.com
USDCAD Oversold bounce incoming.USDCAD is trading inside a Channel Up.
February's price action has so far been a strong rejection of the price near the Channel Up top with the price dropping even below the MA50 (1d).
This is very similar to the last Channel Up Top on October 13th 2022, which first dropped to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then bounced to the 0.236.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.44750 (the 0.236 Fib).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is almost oversold, which also favors buying. In fact it got rejected and currently is on the exact same levels it did in September - October 2022.
Please like, follow and comment!!
SELL USDCAD for bullish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 1.4270SELL USDCAD for bullish trend reversal
STOP LOSS : 1.4270
Regular Bearish Divergence
In case of Regular Bearish Divergence:
* The Indicator shows Lower Highs
* Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs
We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart.....
The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here .....
TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything
Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with…….trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here
USDCAD INTRADAY consolidation This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USD/CAD H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementUSD/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.4260 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.4390 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.4100 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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USD/CAD Slips—Fading Trade Fears, CPI in FocusUSD/CAD is trading heavy ahead of Canada’s inflation report, weighed down by softer US economic data and fading sticker shock from US trade policy headlines. With Canadian data impressing at rates not seen since mid-2024 and January’s steep reversal from 22-year highs increasingly resembling a cyclical top, the key question now is whether this marks the start of a more significant unwind of earlier USD/CAD gains.
The price broke through multiple support levels last week after failing above the 50-day moving average, taking out 1.4270 and 1.4195 before retesting the latter from below over the past two sessions. Momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bearish signals, reinforcing the near-term bias being lower.
Beyond 1.4195, downside levels include 1.4090, the December double bottom at 1.3932, and the 200-day moving average. On the upside, 1.4270 has acted as a cap for much of the past fortnight, alongside minor resistance at 1.4372. That zone could prove tough to crack this week without a major escalation in US trade tensions or an ice-cold Canadian inflation print.
On Tuesday’s CPI report, the data will be skewed by a temporary GST holiday, potentially distorting the signal. That raises doubts about whether it will have enough weight to disrupt the prevailing USD/CAD trend.
Good luck!
DS
USDJPY:800+ PIPS Dropping Well Since Our First Idea!Dear Traders,
Since we posted our idea when price was trading at 158 we told you that this will be a massive dropped and since then price has proven us right, now we think there is another big drop is on the way. Please use proper risk management while trading.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.4106
1st Support: 1.3949
1st Resistance: 1.4300
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Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4146
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.0472
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.4280
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDCADBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/CAD, structured similarly to the provided model:
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD (February 2025)
This analysis covers updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
Canada
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The Canadian economy recorded modest growth of 0.2% in Q4 2024, reflecting cautious expansion amid global uncertainties.
• Inflation:
• Inflation is projected to moderate to around 3.2% by autumn 2025, still above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range.
• BoC Monetary Policy:
• In early February 2025, the BoC maintained its policy stance, with the benchmark rate steady at approximately 5.00%, as officials balance the risks of slowing growth against persistent inflationary pressures.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• The labor market remains resilient, though wage pressures and employment growth are being closely monitored in light of global economic headwinds.
United States
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The US economy continues its robust expansion, driven by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
• Inflation:
• With inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, the US faces ongoing pricing pressures that necessitate a cautious monetary policy.
• Fed Monetary Policy:
• At the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate within the 4.25% - 4.50% range, maintaining a balance between curbing inflation and supporting growth.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Low unemployment figures continue to underscore the strength of the US labor market.
2. Geopolitical Factors
• Trade Relations and Tariff Policies:
• Given the close trade ties between the US and Canada, any shifts in trade policy—such as potential tariff adjustments or renegotiations of trade agreements—could directly impact the USD/CAD pair.
• Fiscal Policies:
• Expansionary fiscal measures in the US, along with debates over budget deficits, could influence the long-term trajectory of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar.
• Energy Markets:
• As Canada is a major energy exporter, fluctuations in global oil prices can have a significant impact on the CAD’s performance, indirectly affecting the USD/CAD exchange rate.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
• Long Positions: 62,000
• Short Positions: 67,500
• Net Position: -5,500 (net short on CAD relative to USD)
• This suggests that large speculators are currently favoring the US dollar over the Canadian dollar in the near term.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
• Long Positions: 90,300
• Short Positions: 78,200
• Net Position: +12,100 (net long on CAD)
• Major institutions and corporations appear more optimistic about the Canadian dollar’s fundamentals over the longer term.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
• Long Positions: 4,200
• Short Positions: 3,600
• Net Position: +600 (net long on CAD)
• Indicates a moderately bullish sentiment among retail traders for CAD.
Interpretation:
• The net short position of large speculators on CAD reflects short-term bearish expectations.
• However, the net long positioning by commercial and small traders suggests that institutional and retail players expect a more favorable outlook for the Canadian dollar in the longer term.
4. Possible Scenarios for USD/CAD
Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for CAD)
• Triggers:
• Continued robust performance of the US economy and a steadfast, possibly more hawkish Fed policy.
• A dovish tilt by the BoC amid slower domestic growth.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD could rise, with the pair potentially trading above 1.35.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
• Triggers:
• Mixed economic data from both Canada and the US, with central banks adopting a “wait-and-see” approach.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD may trade within a narrow range, approximately between 1.32 and 1.35.
Scenario 3: CAD Appreciation (Bullish for CAD)
• Triggers:
• A more robust-than-expected economic performance in Canada, reducing the need for further BoC easing.
• Signs of a slowdown in the US economy prompting a dovish shift by the Fed.
• A favorable move in global energy prices supporting the CAD.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD could decline, with the pair potentially moving below 1.32.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/CAD: Consolidation with a Potential for CAD Appreciation
Reasons:
• While large speculators are net short on the CAD, the longer-term positions held by commercial and small traders indicate growing confidence in the Canadian dollar.
• The fundamentals in Canada—such as steady labor market conditions and resilience in key sectors like energy—support a gradual stabilization.
• Any signs of a more dovish stance by the Fed in response to slowing US growth could further bolster CAD relative to USD.
Target:
• In the coming months, USD/CAD may consolidate in the range of 1.32 to 1.35, with the potential for CAD appreciation driving the pair lower toward 1.32.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are the sole responsibility of the investor.
If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!