NFP-How NFP Will Play Out Today?The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report today, February 7, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report indicates that the U.S. economy added 170,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. This reflects a moderation in job growth compared to December's addition of 256,000 jobs.
REUTERS.COM
Analysts attribute the slowdown in job growth to disruptions caused by wildfires in California and cold weather conditions, which are estimated to have reduced job numbers by approximately 40,000, particularly in sectors like accommodation, food services, and construction.
REUTERS.COM
Additionally, this month's report includes significant annual benchmark revisions, incorporating updated population weights and seasonal adjustment models. These revisions have led to a downward adjustment of previous employment estimates, indicating that fewer jobs were created in 2024 than initially reported.
BUSINESSINSIDER.COM
Financial markets have shown minimal movement in response to the report, as the figures align closely with economists' expectations. Futures linked to Wall Street's main indexes remained steady, with investors having anticipated a slowdown in job growth due to the aforementioned disruptions.
REUTERS.COM
In summary, while the January 2025 NFP report indicates a deceleration in job growth, the labor market remains resilient. However, potential challenges such as federal hiring freezes and trade tensions could impact future employment trends.
APNEWS.COM
USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD at a crucial support.USDCAD - Intraday
The selloff has posted an exhaustion count on the intraday chart.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.4350 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.4425.
We look to Buy at 1.4300 (stop at 1.4260)
Our profit targets will be 1.4400 and 1.4425
Resistance: 1.4350 / 1.4400 / 1.4425
Support: 1.4300 / 1.4275 / 1.4250
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USDCAD Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.431.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.413 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDCAD: Tariffs delayedThe elephant in the room
The focal point of late has undoubtedly been US President Trump’s
proposed tariffs on Canadian goods shipped to the US. A 25% universal
tariff rate would be troublesome for the Canadian economy—despite
the exemption for energy products. But it would also have a notable
stagflationary effect on the US—making it an expensive strategy for Trump.
Further, Canada laid out its retaliation strategy which is designed to
respond in kind. We still think the tariffs will not be implemented in that
form and “deal making” will remain key in the Trump administration’s
strategy.
Canada not in a good place to begin with
Canada remains in a weak negotiation spot politically without a
functioning government in place and new elections likely later in 2Q.
Moreover, the economy is hurting given its high interest-rate sensitivity and
elevated Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rates for some time. Accordingly, the
BoC struck a cautious tone in their policy meeting last week and noted
their readiness to react to any economic shock in relation to US tariffs.
This would be much needed given fiscal stimulus is unlikely to come to the
rescue given Parliament remains prorogued until March.
USDCAD to retest 1.46 highs—even without tariffs
The market reaction to Trump’s proposed tariffs was rather benign and
was completely reversed following the delay in implementation. From here,
we do not see much of a risk premium priced into USDCAD and, rather,
the pair trades below what rates differentials suggest. While we do not
expect the tariffs to be implemented in the aforementioned form, a risk
of some adverse trade action remains. We think USDCAD can test 1.46
again in the coming months before edging lower later in the year. Broader
USD strength might also be enough to get there—even in the absence of
tariffs on Canada.
USD/CAD - Can NFP Reverse or Confirm Bearish Signal?Dear Friends,
How I see it:
If weekly body closes below bottom confluence of support -
This pair could potentially ignite a bearish trend for the longer term.
Keynote:
Fundamental / Political uncertainty can keep this pair in range
for extended periods of time.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
USDCAD, NFP impact. lets know the setup with targetHello Everyone as we have seen a shift in USDCAD rally from upside to downside, so I am expecting a selloff in the USDCAD further with very easy clean and clear setup for the downside.
As today is the NFP, keep the risk less, but the setup has high probability to perform and DELIVER THE TARGET.
USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following:
According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD.
Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside.
From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD.
If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them . Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area.
From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity.
If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle . The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price.
The price has bullish structure.
The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity.
There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future.
DXY has bullish structure.
The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well.
In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.
USDCAD BEARISH MOMENTUM The price has been in an uptrend since September, making higher highs and higher lows. A sharp rejection from the recent high indicates potential bearish pressure. The price is currently hovering near a support leveL , The chart also indicates a possible head and shoulders reversal pattern. If the price breaks below the (support), it may continue down towards the 1.38542 level. If the price bounces from the support zone, a temporary bullish retracement could occur before further downside.
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 6 February 2025
- USDCAD reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4400
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the pivotal support level 1.4290, which has stopped the previous corrections A, C , as can be seen below and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Doji, which stands near the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from November.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.4400.
Trump proposes Canada to become the 51st stateOn February 1 , Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods, with an initial phase of $30 billion taking effect on February 4. Mexico also implemented counter-tariffs. Trump reaffirmed his intention to impose tariffs on European imports but did not specify the details.
On February 2 , Trump stated that if Canada wants to avoid tariffs and taxes, it should become the 51st state of the United States. He argued that the U.S. should not be subsidizing Canada with hundreds of billions of dollars, as the country does not rely on Canadian resources. According to Trump, the U.S. has “unlimited energy resources,” sufficient timber supplies, and a growing domestic automobile industry. He added that without U.S. subsidies, Canada would struggle to remain economically viable, whereas joining the U.S. would provide lower taxes, better military protection, and exemption from tariffs.
On February 3 , during the European session, the following market trends were observed:
U.S. stock futures declined by 1.5–2.5%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1%, reaching 109.50. EUR/USD opened with a major bearish gap, dropping to 1.0210, losing over 1%.
GBP/USD fell below 1.2250 due to dollar strength.
In Australia, December retail sales fell by 0.1%, which was better than expected but failed to support the AUD. As a result, AUD/USD dropped 1.2%, falling below 0.6100.
USD/CAD surged significantly to 1.4792, the highest level since 2003.
USD/MXN hit 21.2882, marking a three-year high.
After reaching a record $2,800 on Friday, gold corrected lower on Monday, trading below $2,775.
Upward retestDollar Cad, managed to show bullish strength after breaking through the 1.44000 mark, after having anticipated a potential drop. As price dropped after reaching the above high, price action is stabilising above the 1.43500 with an attempt to retest the above highs.
Settling above the 1.44000 and 1.44600 may yield to a continued rise. However, if the pair fails to rise and declines below the 1.43500, it may drop in search of bullish pressure.
Bullish USD-CAD for all 2025?Based on the pattern drafted on the graph, I expect patterns to repeat itself. If the long term resistance line (blue) is broken with 1M candle (closed above), the rally will gain further momentum. Good ratio of profit and loss.
Note that this is a long term prediction on 1M candle chart.
USD/CAD Exchange Rate StabilisesUSD/CAD Exchange Rate Stabilises
As we reported on 3 February, the decision by the US president to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada sent the USD/CAD rate soaring to a 22-year high.
However, after a round of negotiations between Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau, the tariff implementation was postponed by a month, which was reflected in the USD/CAD exchange rate chart.
Current USD/CAD Chart Analysis:
→ The price has retreated from the upper boundary of the ascending channel identified three days ago and has now dropped below its lower boundary.
→ The price has returned to and remains within the broad 1.4270 – 1.4460 range.
→ The ATR indicator has reversed from its peak and is trending downward.
Given these factors, it is reasonable to say that USD/CAD is stabilising after recent volatility. But what lies ahead?
The exchange rate may fluctuate within the 1.4270 – 1.4460 range, reacting sensitively to any news on Trump’s tariff policies and his startling suggestion of making Canada the 51st US state.
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USD/CAD H1 | Approaching pullback resistanceUSD/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.4396 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.4512 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.4260 which is a swing-low support.
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