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USDCAD trade ideas

USD/CAD 15-Minute Time Frame (15TF) Technical & Fundamental AnalUSD/CAD 15-Minute Time Frame (15TF) Technical & Fundamental Analysis The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%, providing temporary support to the Canadian dollar (CAD). This decision pushed the loonie to an eight-month high as markets interpreted it as a sign of cautious optimism from the BoC. However, recent data paints a more mixed picture. Weak May retail sales and cooling labor market figures have raised expectations for a possible rate cut later this year, which could weigh heavily on the CAD if confirmed. This divergence in short-term strength and longer-term concern is currently shaping the USD/CAD price action. Technical Outlook: USD/CAD has fallen to fresh weekly lows around 1.3626–1.3630, following a breakout above a key level at 1.3680, which was immediately followed by Accumulation and liquidity sweep below that breakout zone. After hunting stop-losses, price is now pulling back and preparing for potential distribution, as smart money behavior appears to be unfolding. A limit buy setup is forming at the area of reaccumulation. 📊 Trade Setup 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 1.36390 (Buy Limit Order) 🛡 Stop-Loss: 1.36300 (Below liquidity grab) 🎯 Take Profit: 1.36680 (Next minor resistance / ~1:2.5 RR) This trade idea is supported by institutional patterns — breakout, liquidity grab, and reaccumulation — which suggest a bullish continuation move if structure holds. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
USDCAD Bearish OutlookTrend: Bearish (Lower highs and lower lows) Key Resistance / Invalidation Level: 1.38121 Current Price: ~1.3700–1.3750 range Expected Move: Further downside towards the 1.3500–1.3420 area unless price breaks and closes above 1.38121. --- 🎯 Trade Plan Setup: Look for bearish entries on retracements towards the 1.3700–1.3750 area. Invalidation: A confirmed breakout and close above 1.38121. Target: 1.3500–1.3420 range. -- ⚡️ Summary USDCAD remains in a downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows. As long as price stays below 1.38121, the bearish outlook is favored. --- ⚠️ Disclaimer This is NOT financial advice. All trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Short
by Forex_Int
USD/CAD H1 | Overlap support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.3686 which is an overlap support that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.3623 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.3773 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USDCAD: If This Breaks, USDCAD Might Be Lining Up a Smooth DropUSDCAD tapped into a clear liquidity zone and showed signs of weakness at the top. Price is now hovering near a potential break of structure, and a fair value gap has formed just above. If we get that break, the idea is to wait for price to retrace into the FVG, then look for a clean continuation to the downside. There’s also a bearish trendline holding well, adding pressure to the move. On top of that, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, another clue that momentum could be shifting lower. No need to rush. Let the break happen. Let price return. Then act.
Short
by Crusade1Jay
USD/CAD Battlelines Drawn at Former SupportUSD/CAD briefly registered in intraday low at 1.3540 last week before mounting a massive outside-weekly reversal off the yearly lows. The subsequent rally extended more than 1.9% off the low with the advance exhausting into resistance this week at 1.3795-1.3836- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance, the April low-close, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. Looking for inflection off this mark to offer guidance with the immediate recovery vulnerable while below. Initial weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the June range at 1.3639 with key support steady at the 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement at 1.3504/23- look for a larger reaction there If reached with a close below needed to mark resumption of the yearly downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2024 low-week clow (LWC) at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218. A topside breach / close above the 2022 trendline (red) is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger recovery is underway with the next major technical consideration eyed at 1.3963-1.4018- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high and the 38.2% retracement. A weekly close above this key pivot zone is ultimately needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend in USD/CAD. Bottom line: A rebound off the yearly channel is now approaching initial resistance at former support- looking for possible price inflection off the 1.3795-1.3835 zone into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the 2022 trendline IF price is heading lower on this stretch / to validate a break of the multi-year uptrend with a close below 1.3504 still needed to mark resumption. -MB
by FOREXcom
Could the Loonie reverse from here?The price is reacting off the support level which lines up with the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could rise from this levl to our take profit. Entry: 1.3544 Why we like it: There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 1.3516 Why we like it: There is a support level at the 100% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 1.3595 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Bearish continuation for the Loonie?The price has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.3725 1st Support: 1.3430 1st Resistance: 1.3837 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
2
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5