USDCAD Short on a Regression BreakAfter a tough start to the week, Trump and Trudeau make a deal and USDCAD weakness has come off for now.
I am activating an EA to go short on this pair as positions appear.
USDCAD trade ideas
BUY USDCADBUY USDCAD Now. This is not just the regular analysis but a signal. Looking to buy here from the support towards 1,43800. There are two targets for this trade, The first target is approximately halfway at 1,43444. Let's see how it goes
USDCAD • Context:
• BoC: Relatively high rates; Canada is heavily reliant on oil markets, which can impact CAD.
• Oil: If prices rise, CAD tends to be supported; if they fall, USD/CAD goes up.
• Possible Direction:
• Bias: Slightly bullish for USD/CAD, especially if US data remain solid.
• Catalysts: Oil price developments and Canadian economic data.
USD/CAD H4 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportUSD/CAD is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.4283 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 1.4245 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 1.4403 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Canadian and US Employment Data: A Comparative AnalysisCanadian and US Employment Data: A Comparative Analysis
Today, two of the world's major economies are scheduled to release their employment data.
Bank of Canada is expected to report a Net Change in Employment for January at 25,000, down from 90,900 in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the US will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January, with expectations set at 170,000, compared to 256,000 previously.
Here are potential scenarios and their implications:
Both Countries Miss Expectations: If both Canada and the US miss their respective employment data expectations, USDCAD may remain relatively unchanged.
Higher CAD Employment Data, NFP In Line with Expectations: Should the Canadian employment data exceed the previous month's figures while the NFP data meets expectations, USDCAD might move downwards.
NFP Above Expectations: If the NFP data surpasses expectations, we may see USDCAD rising further, impacting the exchange rate more significantly.
As of now, USDCAD is still within its pattern, indicating potential for further growth. Stay tuned to see how the data unfolds and impacts the markets.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDCAD FORECASTThe higher timeframe is looking crazy, guys. As we have seen, the price has broken the highest high, and the way that the price grabbed liquidity and closed below is quite a strong indication that more selling potential is coming our way to the downside. What we need to wait for is the completion of the structure that is developing in the lower timeframe. As always, guys, patience is key!
possibility of downtrendConsidering the price behavior in the current resistance level, possible scenarios have been identified. If the price cannot stabilize above the resistance level, the downward trend will likely continue.
USDCAD WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK!Price is Beginning to retrace. Price traded and closed at 1.42263 ahead of the week, we’d likely anticipate a further drop in price to around 1.38615 a pullback support. This week , we anticipate a fundamental news. We’re looking forward to seeing a GDP report from both countries. I anticipate a further drop in price.
Usdcad longTrend continues. Reversal is almost done. 2 entries. Hit the fibonacci mark or 4 hr ema upwards cross over of 5 and 13
#USDCADJust entered this trade on the DOA fx copier
We should hit full TP with 1:4 RR
I entered this trade during before london session last night
USD/CAD NEXT MOVESell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
NOTE: IF YOU CAN'T SEE ANY OF TOP PATTERN IN THE ZONE DO NOT ENTER
Stop lost before pattern
R/R %1/%3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signals for scalping
USDCAD Price moving along nicely, going up to test daily zone. Tested the daily buy zone today to enter for long postioms
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
CACIB: CAD: a temporary break?With a bank holiday in both Canada and the US yesterday, USD/CAD has
consolidated above Friday’s lows of around 1.4150, as the pair broke away from the 1.44 pivot that had prevailed for about two months until last week. The pair nonetheless remains at the mercy of any eventual policy twist from the new US administration, mainly regarding the imposition of tariffs between the two countries as temporary respites are due to expire in early March, but also about geopolitics and its impact on global energy markets to a lesser extent. In this context, today’s Canadian CPI release for January may not attract too much attention, especially as the data has likely been distorted by the two-month break on Canadian sales tax. The BoC expects a more pronounced impact onto headline inflation (down to
1.7% YoY in January), whereas stripping out this temporary holiday, Canada’s CPI would have been on track to rise to a six-month high of 2.5% YoY. Ultimately, only a major data surprise could at this stage alter the bigger picture of Canadian inflation steadying just above 2% in the year ahead, while in any case the BoC’s reaction function may now give a greater weight onto Canada’s medium-term growth prospects, and whether any full-blown trade war could make the negative output gap worse.
CACIB: Go long USDCADUSD/CAD’s fair value fell from 1.4523 to 1.4420 due to a fall in the USCanada short-term rates spread as well as a rise in global equities, which was partly offset by a rise in the US-Canada box yield spread. USD/CAD remains more than 1.5 standard deviations undervalued. The FAST FX
model has triggered a long USD/CAD trade with a stop-loss of -1.79% and a take-profit level of 1.4420.
USDCAD Oversold bounce incoming.USDCAD is trading inside a Channel Up.
February's price action has so far been a strong rejection of the price near the Channel Up top with the price dropping even below the MA50 (1d).
This is very similar to the last Channel Up Top on October 13th 2022, which first dropped to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then bounced to the 0.236.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.44750 (the 0.236 Fib).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is almost oversold, which also favors buying. In fact it got rejected and currently is on the exact same levels it did in September - October 2022.
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USDCAD INTRADAY consolidation This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Priced return timeWith a downtrend line break, the chart could have a price rally and a price reversal. Keep an eye on the chart.
correctionIt is expected that the downward trend will continue to the specified support levels. Then the continuation of the movement will proceed according to the specified paths.
USDCADBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/CAD, structured similarly to the provided model:
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD (February 2025)
This analysis covers updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
Canada
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The Canadian economy recorded modest growth of 0.2% in Q4 2024, reflecting cautious expansion amid global uncertainties.
• Inflation:
• Inflation is projected to moderate to around 3.2% by autumn 2025, still above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range.
• BoC Monetary Policy:
• In early February 2025, the BoC maintained its policy stance, with the benchmark rate steady at approximately 5.00%, as officials balance the risks of slowing growth against persistent inflationary pressures.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• The labor market remains resilient, though wage pressures and employment growth are being closely monitored in light of global economic headwinds.
United States
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The US economy continues its robust expansion, driven by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
• Inflation:
• With inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, the US faces ongoing pricing pressures that necessitate a cautious monetary policy.
• Fed Monetary Policy:
• At the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate within the 4.25% - 4.50% range, maintaining a balance between curbing inflation and supporting growth.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Low unemployment figures continue to underscore the strength of the US labor market.
2. Geopolitical Factors
• Trade Relations and Tariff Policies:
• Given the close trade ties between the US and Canada, any shifts in trade policy—such as potential tariff adjustments or renegotiations of trade agreements—could directly impact the USD/CAD pair.
• Fiscal Policies:
• Expansionary fiscal measures in the US, along with debates over budget deficits, could influence the long-term trajectory of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar.
• Energy Markets:
• As Canada is a major energy exporter, fluctuations in global oil prices can have a significant impact on the CAD’s performance, indirectly affecting the USD/CAD exchange rate.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
• Long Positions: 62,000
• Short Positions: 67,500
• Net Position: -5,500 (net short on CAD relative to USD)
• This suggests that large speculators are currently favoring the US dollar over the Canadian dollar in the near term.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
• Long Positions: 90,300
• Short Positions: 78,200
• Net Position: +12,100 (net long on CAD)
• Major institutions and corporations appear more optimistic about the Canadian dollar’s fundamentals over the longer term.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
• Long Positions: 4,200
• Short Positions: 3,600
• Net Position: +600 (net long on CAD)
• Indicates a moderately bullish sentiment among retail traders for CAD.
Interpretation:
• The net short position of large speculators on CAD reflects short-term bearish expectations.
• However, the net long positioning by commercial and small traders suggests that institutional and retail players expect a more favorable outlook for the Canadian dollar in the longer term.
4. Possible Scenarios for USD/CAD
Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for CAD)
• Triggers:
• Continued robust performance of the US economy and a steadfast, possibly more hawkish Fed policy.
• A dovish tilt by the BoC amid slower domestic growth.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD could rise, with the pair potentially trading above 1.35.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
• Triggers:
• Mixed economic data from both Canada and the US, with central banks adopting a “wait-and-see” approach.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD may trade within a narrow range, approximately between 1.32 and 1.35.
Scenario 3: CAD Appreciation (Bullish for CAD)
• Triggers:
• A more robust-than-expected economic performance in Canada, reducing the need for further BoC easing.
• Signs of a slowdown in the US economy prompting a dovish shift by the Fed.
• A favorable move in global energy prices supporting the CAD.
• Outcome:
• USD/CAD could decline, with the pair potentially moving below 1.32.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/CAD: Consolidation with a Potential for CAD Appreciation
Reasons:
• While large speculators are net short on the CAD, the longer-term positions held by commercial and small traders indicate growing confidence in the Canadian dollar.
• The fundamentals in Canada—such as steady labor market conditions and resilience in key sectors like energy—support a gradual stabilization.
• Any signs of a more dovish stance by the Fed in response to slowing US growth could further bolster CAD relative to USD.
Target:
• In the coming months, USD/CAD may consolidate in the range of 1.32 to 1.35, with the potential for CAD appreciation driving the pair lower toward 1.32.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are the sole responsibility of the investor.
If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
