USDCAD for short*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
USDCAD trade ideas
Potential bullish rise?USD/CAD has reacted off the resistance level and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3603
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3540
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.3704
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound?USDCAD 17/06 – Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound?
After a significant drop to the 1.355x area, USD/CAD is showing early signs of recovery. However, the pair remains influenced by strong macro headwinds—particularly oil prices and Canadian monetary policy signals.
🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview
WTI crude oil is rising due to ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, which increase the risk of global supply disruptions. This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a commodity-linked currency.
Canada’s 10-year bond yields have reached their highest levels in 5 months (~3.4%), reinforcing expectations that the BoC may remain hawkish in the near term.
USD weakens slightly as traders await more clarity from the Federal Reserve about the next rate cut timeline, potentially in Q3.
📊 Technical Analysis (M30 Chart)
Price is printing higher lows above the key trendline.
EMAs 13–34–89 are tightening → sign of sideways pressure before breakout.
Short-term bullish channel still intact.
Key resistance zones: 1.3581 and 1.3605.
🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios
📈 Long Scenario
Entry: 1.3556 – 1.3560 (trendline bounce)
Stop Loss: 1.3535
Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3605
✅ Wait for M30/H1 confirmation like bullish engulfing or price-action breakout.
📉 Short Scenario
Entry: 1.3605 (if price rejects resistance)
Stop Loss: 1.3630
Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3556
⚠️ Trigger only on bearish rejection with strong candle and volume at resistance.
📌 Strategic Outlook
USD/CAD is caught in a tug-of-war: stronger Canadian fundamentals (oil + yields) vs. cautious USD movement post-FOMC. If oil prices and Canadian yields continue to climb, CAD may remain in favor. However, short-term technical rebounds toward 1.3600 remain valid if price structure holds.
USDCAD Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.356.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.360.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USDCAD HAS BREAKOUT THE DOWN TREND BULLISH STRONGUSDCAD Breakout Alert! | 30-Min Timeframe 🔍
The downtrend is officially broken — bulls are in control!
Entry Level: 1.36400 ✅
🎯 Technical Targets:
1st Target: 1.36700 – Key Supply Zone
2nd Target: 1.36900 – Next Supply Level
3rd Target: 1.37300 – Major Resistance Ahead
Momentum is strong and favoring the upside. Watch these levels closely — perfect setup for intraday action. 📈
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Trend Alert – USD/CAD Could Be Preparing for a Major Reversal!🚨 Trend Alert – USD/CAD Could Be Preparing for a Major Reversal! 🚨
Traders, be cautious! The USD/CAD pair appears to be approaching a critical turning point. The market has now reached significant monthly support levels, and we are currently hovering around a marked green zone — a region known for potential bullish reactions.
For quite some time, the market has been in a strong bearish trend, consistently showing Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the downside. If you've been observing closely, you'll notice that the price action has been favoring sellers for weeks, if not months.
However, the dynamics might be changing soon.
There’s a large pool of liquidity building up above the current price levels. This creates the perfect condition for a strong bullish pump. The market could seize this opportunity to shift its direction and initiate a fresh uptrend.
💡 Key Insight: The current setup suggests that the bearish phase might be exhausted, and we could see the start of a bullish rally from this green support zone.
📉 Selling traders – proceed with caution! The risk of a sudden upside move is high, and holding onto short positions without proper risk management could be dangerous.
🧠 As always: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
📛 This is not financial advice — just a heads-up from a market observer who’s keeping an eye on the charts!
Possible bullish outlook Structure wise , price is currently sitting on the first poi for a bullish reaction, I would be watching either poi , to see how price reacts bullishly
USDCADBank of Canada (BoC) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision
The BoC held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, marking the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points since mid-2024.
The Bank Rate remains at 3.00%, and the deposit rate at 2.70%.
The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, which continue to pose risks to Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook.
The BoC emphasized the need to monitor the effects of trade tensions and inflation pressures before making further moves.
The next BoC rate announcement is scheduled for July 30, 2025.
Federal Reserve (Fed) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision
The Fed held its target federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% in its June 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation and labor market signals.
Recent data showed inflation moderating but still above target, and the labor market softening but resilient, leading the Fed to pause rate changes while assessing incoming economic information.
Market pricing indicates a growing probability of a rate cut later in 2025, possibly starting in September, contingent on sustained disinflation and labor market trends.
The Fed continues to monitor risks from tariffs and global economic uncertainties.
JUNE 18th economic data will be watched by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks and BOC Summary of Deliberations
Federal Reserve will update Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50%,FOMC Economic Projections,FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference
In summary: Both the BoC and Fed paused rate changes in June 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties—trade tensions for Canada and inflation/labor market data for the US. Markets expect potential easing later in the year if conditions deteriorate
1. USD/CAD and Oil Price Correlation
Strong Negative Correlation:
USD/CAD and oil prices exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar (CAD) tends to appreciate against the US dollar (USD), causing USD/CAD to fall, and vice versa.
Reason: Canada is a major oil exporter (over 3 million barrels/day), so oil revenues significantly impact Canada’s trade balance and economic health. Higher oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade and strengthen CAD.
Recent Trends:
Although this correlation remains strong, its intensity has somewhat weakened recently due to other factors like global risk sentiment and trade dynamics. Still, oil remains a key driver of CAD strength.
2. USD/CAD and 10-Year Bond Yields
Interest Rate Differentials Influence:
The difference between US and Canadian 10-year government bond yields affects USD/CAD. A higher US yield relative to Canada tends to strengthen USD versus CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD.
Risk Sentiment and Yield Movements:
Bond yields reflect economic growth expectations and monetary policy outlooks. Diverging economic conditions or central bank actions between the US and Canada influence these yields and thus USD/CAD.
Example: If US yields rise due to Fed tightening while Canadian yields stay stable, USD/CAD may rise.
3. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions
Monetary Policy Impact:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decisions are crucial drivers of USD/CAD.
Rate Hikes: If the Fed raises rates or signals hawkishness while BoC holds or cuts, USD tends to strengthen against CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher.
Rate Cuts: Conversely, if BoC hikes or signals hawkishness and Fed eases, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD.
Policy Divergence: Market expectations around these decisions create volatility in USD/CAD.
4. Carry Trade Advantage
Carry Trade Basics:
Carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher rates to earn the interest differential.
USD/CAD Context:
If Canadian interest rates are higher than US rates, investors may borrow USD to invest in CAD assets, supporting CAD and lowering USD/CAD.
Interest Rate Differentials: The attractiveness of carry trades depends on the interest rate spread between the two countries and market risk appetite.
Risk Considerations: Carry trades can unwind quickly during market stress, causing sharp USD/CAD moves.
5. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
UIP Theory:
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is an economic and financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates between two countries.
Key Points of UIP:
Definition: UIP states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected change in exchange rates between their currencies over the same period. In other words, if one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to the currency of the country with the lower interest rate.
Implication: This means investors should expect no arbitrage opportunities from interest rate differentials alone because any potential gains from higher interest rates in one country will be offset by losses from currency depreciation.
Example:
Suppose the US has a 6% interest rate and India has a 14% interest rate. According to UIP, the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar by approximately 8% (the difference in interest rates) over the investment period. So, although an investor might earn higher interest in India, the currency depreciation offsets the gain.
Relation to Law of One Price: UIP is similar to the "Law of One Price," which states that identical goods or securities should have the same price globally when adjusted for exchange rates.
Difference from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP):
UIP does not involve hedging exchange rate risk with forward contracts; it uses expected future spot rates.
CIP involves using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, eliminating currency risk.
Formula:
The expected change in exchange rate ≈ difference in interest rates between two countries.
USD/CAD Implication:
Traders watch interest rate differentials and expectations to forecast USD/CAD moves, but must consider that other factors (oil prices, risk sentiment) also influence the pair.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on USD/CAD Explanation
Oil Prices Higher oil → CAD strengthens → USD/CAD ↓ Canada’s oil exports support CAD
10-Year Bond Yield Differential Higher US yields → USD strengthens → USD/CAD ↑ Reflects monetary policy and growth outlooks
Central Bank Rate Decisions Fed hike > BoC hike → USD/CAD ↑ Interest rate differentials drive flows
Carry Trade Higher CAD rates → carry trade inflows → USD/CAD ↓ Investors seek higher yields in CAD
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Interest rate gap ≈ expected exchange rate change Theoretical equilibrium, often imperfect
Conclusion
The USD/CAD pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, with a strong negative correlation due to Canada’s oil export dependence.
Interest rate differentials and central bank policies between the US and Canada also play a critical role, affecting bond yields and carry trade flows.
While carry trade strategies can amplify movements, they carry risk during market volatility.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity provides a theoretical framework for exchange rate expectations but is often influenced by other market factors, including commodity prices and risk sentiment.
#USDCAD
USDCAD | 09.06.2025BUY 1.36800 | STOP 1.36000 | TAKE 1.37800 | Technically, a local upward reversal pattern and divergence is forming.
USD/CAD MILKEDUSD/CAD MILKED we went long on this trade as price delivery switched from a bearish program to a bullish program easy trades, easy setups
USDCAD: SELL @ Entry ....You need to wait for your set up and let the market come to you before you click that buy or sell.......lets milk this to TP3......................
USDCAD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDCAD is below:
The market is trading on 1.3649 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.3697
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.3624
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Running Flat FormationHere we have a Running Flat Formation. At point C it looks to me that price has broken the small upward trend it was in and has imprinted a H&S formation and broken to the downside. I'm waiting for a retest on the previous new structure low (NSL) before taking an entry.
USDCAD – Friday June 27th, 2025USDCAD played beautifully to our bias, breaking the 1.36647 safe sell level and delivering 46 pips clean before pulling back.
If you weren’t already in, the pullback offered a decent re-entry window — but at this point I’m not looking for new trades today.
📌 Still Bearish
Here’s what I’m watching now:
Retest of 1.36647 → possible add-on entry
Break and close below 1.35432 → continuation play
No need to force anything ahead of the weekend. Structure remains bearish and we’ll reassess post-weekend for continuation.
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/CAD is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3646
1st Support: 1.3555
1st Resistance: 1.3702
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCAD possible Long ideaUSDCAD seems to have turned bullish and doing a retracement in H4.
Based on existing confirmation, there is a chance that it reach to liquidity level 1.37392
This is for educational purpose only. Not an investment or financial advise.
USD/CAD unclear, lower next weekAnalysing DXY the current daily candle is anticipated to be a consolidation 3rd candle. Although the retracement off the daily Fair Value Gap on USD/CAD looks like the last bearish argument to be removed, I don't expect follow through today.
Rather wait for a 3rd candle on DXY and trade lower from the new Fair Value Gap.
Bullish Bat and Bullish Crab patternWe have added confluence on this long-term swing buy up to 1.37 and 1.38 area. Be Patient. Happy Trading.
USDCAD - Outlook Short on all IndicatorsUSDCAD - Outlook Short on all Indicators
TVC:DXY
FRED:TREASURY
ECONOMICS:USGD
US CONS
- The US Treasury is under $353.5 Billion.
- DXY will continue to fall.
- The Decline of the US Dollar will continue.
- US Debt has exceeded $36 Trillion
- US Federal Debt Deficiency of over $2 Trillion (Must be paid prior to Interest Payments)
- US Federal Interest (over $1 Trillion)
- War in Iran
- USD could be converted to GOLD and moved to BTC
- Moody's US credit rating reduce.
- Interest Rate Cuts
US PROS
- Trump could get funding from another country.
- Interest Rate increases
- Positive FOMC in July
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 26 June 2025
- USDCAD reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.3545
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 1.3770 (former support from the start of May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from last October.
This resistance zone was further strengthened by the resistance trendline from the start of February.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3545, which reversed the price in the middle of June.
USDCAD Sell ForecastUSDCAD New Forecast👨💻👨💻
This is my personal trade and not in anyway a mandatory setup.
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP.
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Bearish continuation for USDCADI see that the short term bullish pull back for USD is over by
- Head and shoulder pattern formation
- 50 ema crossing above price
- Bearish engulfing candles forming showing bearish momentum.
