USDCAD DECLINES FURTHER!!Price declined further in the past few days and reacts in an ascending trend line . This is a crucial point where we could either see price drop further. I expect a weaker USD.
USDCAD trade ideas
USDCADthis will continue his bearish movement probably throught this week . we can only join this trade on retracement if we see the opportunity to join. it is very expensive to buy usdcad for now.
USDCAD: Weekly AnalysisThe last week sharp fall of the pair was not irrelated to US-Iran negotiations.
Possible war in Persian Gulf means higher prices in oil and more raises in CAD.
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confrimation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025
- USDCAD reversed from strong resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 1.3755
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance area between the round resistance level 1.4000 intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from March.
The downward reversal from this resistance area started the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2).
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3755 (the former low from the start of May and the target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2)).
USDCAD Massive Long! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
USDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.3814 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
My Stop Loss - 1.3784
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.3877
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCAD taking two trades hear
reason behind that is simple market in down trend making LL LH as of now its in LL Zone and theirs no strong LH so just capturing that move with two trades
USD/CAD💰Symbol: { USD/CAD }
🟩Price: { 1.38933 }
🟥Stop: { 1.39307 }
1️⃣profit: { 1.38580 }
2️⃣profit: { 1.38171 }
3️⃣profit: { 1.37725 }
📊Check your chart before entering.
🚨Check before use to make sure there is no important news.🚨
Bearish reversal for the Loonie?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3904
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.4006
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.3763
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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SLIGHT BUY ON THE USDCAD PAIRon this analysis, the USDCAD might have a slight pullback on the bullish side despite being bearish on a higher TF
Buyers are expected to step in at this zone and drive price upI'm closely monitoring USD/CAD as it approaches a significant support zone between 1.3820 and 1.3740. This area has historically prompted bullish rebounds, and I anticipate that buyers will defend it.
With confirmation, I plan to enter a long position, placing a stop loss just below 1.3740 to manage risk. Initial targets might include the 1.3900 level, aligning with previous resistance. Then, we can expect the 1.40 area for full TP.
However, if the price breaks decisively below 1.3740, it would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest further downside.
4hr trade short4hr trade short - larger trends are bullish btw, short term pullbacks are what were looking at
A bullis Trend in CAD USD chartA Bullish trend in CAD USD chart and I am taking my trade using head and shoulder pattern.
What's up with USDCAD guys?! (Daily)Loonie after multiple days fall then average range did a correction to up.Now we are watching the correction has finished and continues the fall.In my mind we need a correction on this again downward trajectory
USDCAD Consolidation Within Bullish Flag – Targets 1.4130USDCAD is consolidating inside a descending flag structure following a strong impulsive rally earlier in May. The current pullback is orderly and corrective, indicating potential for continuation higher. If price breaks above 1.3960, this flag breakout could extend toward 1.4130 and possibly 1.4225. With CAD weakening on soft oil prices and USD regaining strength from yield-driven flows, the bias remains bullish while price stays above 1.3870.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Bullish flag forming after a strong rally
Support Zone: 1.3870–1.3900 → base of flag
Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.3960–1.3980 → upper flag line
Structure:
Higher lows holding firm
Fib confluence near 1.3933 (23.6% retracement)
Target Levels:
1.4130 – 50% fib level + previous structure resistance
1.4225 – 61.8% fib zone from March–April high
📈 Bias: Bullish continuation on breakout
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD)
Supported by:
Higher bond yields
Fed expected to hold rates higher for longer
Safe-haven inflows post-Moody’s downgrade fading
USD Index recovering broadly across majors
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Oil prices softening due to global demand concerns (China slowdown, US inventories)
BoC likely done hiking — no fresh bullish catalysts
CAD correlation with crude oil adds downside risk if energy markets weaken further
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Break and close above 1.3960
Stop Loss: Below 1.3870 (flag support zone)
Targets:
TP1: 1.4130 (structure resistance + fib level)
TP2: 1.4225 (swing high + golden ratio)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch
If USD sentiment shifts (e.g., dovish Fed speaker) → breakout may fail
Crude oil rebound would support CAD and cap USD/CAD upside
False breakouts common near 1.3960 — wait for confirmation (strong candle close)
🧭 Conclusion
USD/CAD remains in a bullish consolidation phase with a clear continuation setup. A break above 1.3960 would confirm a flag breakout targeting 1.4130 and 1.4225. With the macro backdrop favoring the USD and energy-linked CAD weakening, this setup offers clean structure and potential for follow-through.
USDCADIt tried 2 times to get to the bottom, but seems like it's not pushing down with much power. Flag to upside
USDCAD BULLISH FOR 54PIPUSDCAD Bullish Forecast (54 Pips)
Current Price: Check live price (e.g., ~1.3650).
Target: 1.3704 (+54 pips from entry).
Stop Loss (SL): Below support (e.g., ~1.3620, 30-pip risk).
Key Levels:
Support: 1.3630–1.3620 (pullback zone).
Resistance: 1.3700 (psychological level), then 1.3750.
Bullish Drivers:
USD Strength: If Fed signals hawkish policy or risk-off mood lifts USD.
Oil Price Drop: Weak crude oil (CAD negative) could boost USDCAD.
Technical Breakout: Rising from a trendline or moving average (e.g., 50 EMA).
Trade Plan:
Entry: On pullback to 1.3630–1.3640 or breakout above 1.3670.
Exit: Take profit at 1.3704 (scaled exits optional).
Risk Management: 1:2 R/R (30-pip SL, 54-pip TP).
What is the upside potential above the 1.39 level?Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the closely watched April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data during the North American trading session. As a key inflation indicator, this data will significantly impact the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada (BoC). The daily chart of USD/CAD exhibits notable technical pattern shifts:
Technical Analysis
Breakout and Resistance Zone Test
The pair has recently breached the 1.3900 psychological level and is currently testing a critical resistance zone.
A double-bottom reversal pattern formed after prices rebounded from the recent low of 1.3749, signaling potential bullish momentum for a trend reversal.
The MACD indicator has shown a decisive upward pivot, with the DIFF line crossing above the DEA line (forming a "golden cross"), and the histogram shifting from green to red, confirming that upward momentum is accumulating.
Market Sentiment
Current market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism, as traders weigh technical bullish signals against the potential fundamental volatility triggered by the CPI release.
Key Implications of CPI Data
Higher-than-Expected Inflation: If the CPI exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the BoC’s hawkish stance, potentially pushing USD/CAD lower toward the 1.3850–1.3800 support level.
Lower-than-Expected Inflation: A softer CPI may fuel expectations of BoC policy easing, driving USD/CAD toward the 1.4000–1.4050 resistance zone.
Trading Considerations
Bullish Scenario: A daily close above 1.3950 would validate the breakout, targeting 1.4080 (the measured move derived from the double-bottom pattern).
Bearish Scenario: A rejection at the resistance zone, combined with weak USD momentum, could trigger a retracement to 1.3820 (the neckline of the double-bottom).
Risk Management: Traders are advised to set tight stop-loss orders around key levels (e.g., below 1.3880 for bullish positions, above 1.3980 for bearish positions) ahead of the data-induced volatility.
The CPI report represents a pivotal inflection point, with the potential to either reinforce the technical breakout or prompt a trend reversal. Market participants should monitor real-time data releases and subsequent BoC communications for directional cues.
Canada's inflation eases, Canadian dollar edges lowerThe Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3920, down 0.21% on the day.
Canada released the April inflation report, which indicated that headline and core inflation were moving in opposite directions. Headline CPI dropped sharply to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.3% but shy of the market estimate of 1.6%. This was the lowest annual inflation rate in seven months. The sharp drop was driven by the end of the consumer carbon tax, with gasoline prices dropping 18% lower compared to April 2024.
Core inflation accelerated in April, with two key indicators rising to an average of 3.15%, compared to 2.85% in March. This was above the market estimate of 2.9%.
The money markets have responded to the inflation data, lowering the probability of a rate cut at the June 4 meeting to 48%, down from 65% prior to the inflation release.
The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its easing cycle, trimming rates seven straight times from June 2024 until April, when it held rates. The cash rate is currently at 2.75% but the BoC is hesitant to lower in the midst of the uncertainty over the US trade tariffs, which have led to sharp swings in the stock markets.
There are no US events on the calendar and the markets will be all ears as a host of FOMC members make public statements today. Investors will be looking for insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates in June and may cut as little as twice in the second half of the year. That could change, depending on inflation, the US labor market and Trump's tariffs.
USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3936. Below, there is support at 1.3911
There is resistance at 1.3952 and 1.3977
USDCAD - Buy Trade - 20/05/2025Fundamentals: The Canadian dollar has weakened due to falling oil prices and widening interest rate spreads favoring the U.S. dollar.
Technical: Bullish trend observed, with resistance at 1.3969 and support at 1.3900.
USDCAD price squeeze in progressYou can go short near the upper trendline, but it's probably best to wait for the breakout to happen in the next few days.
This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk so carefully managing your capital and risk is important. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more.
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XAUUSD and USDCAD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
We are watching USDCAD today and on ThursdayCanadian CPIs and PPIs are coming out on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.
Let's dig into the numbers.
FX_IDC:USDCAD
MARKETSCOM:USDCAD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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