USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 11 April 2025- USDCAD broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.3800
USDCAD currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 1.4040 (which reversed the price sharply at the start of April, as can be seen below), 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from September and the support trendline of the daily down channel from March.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to intermediate impulse wave (C) from February.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3800, former monthly low from November.
USD/CAD 1H – Bearish Setup with SBR & DBD Zone | Trendline BreakKey Zones:
🔵 Entry Point (Sell):
Around 1.41300–1.41500 (Supply Zone: SBR + DBD zone)
Price is expected to pull back here before dropping
This is the ideal place to look for bearish confirmation
🟦 Supply Zone (Resistance)
🔴 Stop Loss:
Just above 1.41804
If price hits this, the bearish idea is invalidated
⚠️ Protection zone
🟡 Demand Zone (Support):
1.40000–1.40500
Price may bounce here temporarily
Watch for consolidation or breakout
🟢 Take Profit / Target Point:
1.39320
This is the final target for the short position
Potential -1.36% move / 192.7 pips
💰 Profit zone
Visual Summary with Dots:
🔵 Sell Entry: Around 1.41400
🔴 Stop Loss: Above 1.41800
🟢 Take Profit: At 1.39320
Short trade
Day TF overview
📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (USDCAD)
📅 Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
⏰ Time: 10:30 AM (New York Time) – NY Session AM
📈 Pair: USDCAD
📉 Trade Direction: Short (Sell)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 1.40162
Take Profit (TP): 1.39390 (–0.55%)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.40307 (+0.10%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 5.32 ✅
Reson: Try to attempt the NY reversal narrative assuming bearish sentiment
30min TF overview
USD/CAD(20250411)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The annual rate of the US CPI in March was 2.4%, a six-month low, lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The market almost fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in June. Trump said inflation has fallen.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.4013
Support and resistance levels:
1.4170
1.4112
1.4073
1.3952
1.3914
1.3855
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.4013, consider buying, the first target price is 1.4073
If the price breaks through 1.3952, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3914
Crowd's Bullish Narrative Meets Structural Reality📅 Week of: April 7–11, 2025
🚩 USD/CAD
Bias: Bearish
Trade Duration: 2–5 Days
Status: Breakdown Confirmed – Retest Completed
Current Reflexivity Phase: Phase 4 – Emotional Flush & Capitulation
Strategy Type: Structural Breakdown + Sentiment Dislocation
Execution Style: Reactive, not predictive
Theme: "Crowd's Bullish Narrative Meets Structural Reality"
🧠 Strategic Thesis
USD/CAD has clearly broken and successfully retested previous support (1.4248) as resistance. The market now enters an emotional flush phase as late bullish positions unwind, reinforcing bearish momentum driven by strengthening CAD due to bullish crude oil dynamics.
🔍 Structure Breakdown Highlights
Clean structural rejection at the retest (1.4248 resistance zone)
Strong bearish momentum confirmed; consistent lower highs
Sellers firmly control price action, no fresh demand emerging
📊 COT & Sentiment Snapshot
Leveraged Funds: Unwinding longs slowly
Institutional Traders: Accumulating CAD positions steadily
Retail Sentiment: Persistently bullish on USD despite structural evidence
📌 Translation: Institutional flows quietly pivoting to CAD; retail optimism still providing contrarian fuel.
🧠 Behavioral Finance Triggers
“Crowds trust the story. Price tells the truth.”
Emotional denial among bullish USD traders, fueling further downside upon forced exits
Rejection confirmed; sentiment lagging clear structural signals
🔄 Reflexivity Model – Phase Breakdown
Phase Description
Phase 1: USD bullish narrative builds retail optimism
Phase 2: Structural breakdown—completed
Phase 3: Retest & crowd denial—completed
Phase 4: ✅ Current – Emotional flush underway
🛠️ Execution Plan
Entry: Short already executed at 1.42354
Risk Management: Stop-loss above confirmed retest (1.42567)
Exit Plan: Scale out strategically on downside momentum
🕰️ Execution Timeline
Wednesday–Friday: Maintain short bias, trail stops, secure partial gains into weekend
✅ Strategic Summary
USD bullish crowd now forced to reckon with structural realities—stay positioned for emotional flush continuation.
"You don’t need to predict. Just follow the failure."
USDCAD Downtrend Hinges on This SupportFenzoFx—USD/CAD is trading bearishly and failed to form a new higher high above the 1.4297 resistance. A new bearish wave could be triggered if selling pressure drives the price below the 1.4143 support level.
In this scenario, the next bearish target will likely be 1.4028. Please note that the bearish outlook should be invalidated if USD/CAD exceeds 1.4297.
>>> Trade USDCAT at FenzoFx Decentralized Forex Broker
USD/CAD(20250409)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency reiterated that the specific tax rates for each country will be announced at 12:01 a.m. on April 9.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.4227
Support and resistance levels:
1.4353
1.4306
1.4275
1.4178
1.4147
1.4100
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.4275, consider buying, the first target price is 1.4306
If the price breaks through 1.4227, consider selling, the first target price is 1.4178