USDCAD LONG SETUPI am expecting the US Dollar to be bullish this week.
Weekly closed as a bullish engulfing.
Expecting price to make a minor pull back on the daily before taking making another bullish push.
Price is also showing a bullish divergence on the daily, which furthers strengthens my perspective.
The 2H TF also illustrates somewhat of a Cup-and-Handle Candle Stick Formation
Will look to enter longs on the lower TFs (1-4h)
USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD SETUPUSD/CAD is currently showing signs of a bullish corrective wave or potential trend reversal after defending a critical demand zone. If the market respects the retracement levels, a move toward 1.3900–1.3950 is likely in the short-to-mid term. Traders should look for a pullback entry or breakout confirmation, with risk managed below recent support.
Trade Idea: Sell USD/CAD **Why Sell USD/CAD?**
**🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD):**
* **U.S. growth is slowing**
→ *Losing steam. A weaker economy means less support for the dollar.*
* **Inflation still above 2%**
→ *Sticky, but not scary. Not enough heat for the Fed to tighten further — dollar stays dull.*
* **Fed is on pause, no rate hikes ahead**
→ *The engine's idling. No fuel to push USD higher.*
* **Market heavily short USD**
→ *Traders are already betting against it — and they might be right. Momentum is down.*
---
**🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD):**
* **Oil prices are back above \$70**
→ *Oil is CAD’s lifeline — and it’s flowing again. That props up the loonie.*
* **BoC holding rates with a neutral tone**
→ *Not cutting, not panicking. Steady hands support CAD.*
* **Core inflation still high (CPI-trim \~3.1%)**
→ *Quiet pressure. Enough to keep the BoC on alert — a silent strength for CAD.*
* **More traders turning bullish on CAD**
→ *The crowd’s shifting — and the loonie is starting to feel the love.*
* **CAD still sensitive to risk-off mood**
→ *If markets panic, CAD could slip. But for now, risk is manageable.*
Israel-Iran Confrontation. (I expect upward movement in USD/CADIsrael and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold. in the meantime, investors are shifting their focus to key events this week.
The main highlights will be the consumer inflation reports from the UK and the eurozone. In the EU, inflation is expected to stabilize at 1.9%, while in the UK, it is forecast to decrease from 3.5% to 3.3% year over year.
This week will also bring central bank meetings in Switzerland, the UK, and, of course, the U.S. Federal Reserve-which will likely take center stage and divert attention from the tow European central banks.
Other events worth focusing on include the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index U.S. retail sales figures.
But let's return to the week's main event-the Fed's final monetary policy decision, which will be made over two days, Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the consensus forecast, the central bank is expected to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4,50% The main reasons for this are persistently high consumer inflation figures, which showed an annual increase last week (albeit smaller than expected), and uncertainty about the consequences of Donald Trump's presidency. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously cited both as reasons to pause the rate-cutting cycle.
So, what might come of the Fed holding rates steady?
Frankly, not much. Ongoing uncertainty will continue to be the primary driving force in the markets. Traders are starting to anticipate rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, I believe there is a strong chance that rates will remain unchanged until next year. This is due not only to risk of inflation returning to 3% and the murky geoeconomic policies of the U.S.-China trade war and its unclear outcome.
Given this combination of negative factors-each of which obstructs rate cuts-and the fact that the market has already priced these into its expectations, we can anticipate a continuation of existing trends.
The pair is declining amid rising crude oil prices, which support the Canadian dollar, a commodity-linked currency. If oil prices resume upward momentum, USD/CAD will face pressure again. If the pair fails to rise above 1,3600, a decline toward 1.3435 is likely. A potential sell level is 13560.
USDCAD Analysis – Breaking the Chains, Eyeing 1.38+USDCAD Price broke out from a long descending channel, followed by two bullish continuation flags – classic breakout-retest pattern.
Price is now pushing above 1.3720, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level of the prior drop.
Next upside targets:
🔹 1.3833 (Fib 61.8%)
🔹 1.3913 (Fib 78.6%)
Clear stop level: below 1.3625 (channel breakout support)
Structure Bias: Bullish continuation. Clean breakout + consolidation = probable impulse toward 1.3830/1.39.
📊 Current Bias: Bullish
🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCAD
USD Drivers (Neutral to Bullish):
Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2025, but Powell's tone leaned dovish.
US Retail Sales + PPI were weak, but safe-haven USD demand persists due to geopolitical risks and equity volatility.
Market reassessing Trump election risk, Fed independence, and inflation stickiness.
CAD Drivers (Bearish):
Oil prices are volatile due to Middle East tensions, but weak demand caps upside.
Canada’s CPI softened, BoC already delivered a dovish cut earlier this month.
CAD under pressure due to dovish BoC outlook and fiscal concerns (gov't budget deficits expanding).
CAD is also suffering from reduced foreign investment flows.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Oil price spikes (especially if Strait of Hormuz risk escalates) may boost CAD short-term.
A sharp reversal in DXY or Fed commentary shift toward aggressive easing.
Weak US data next week (Core PCE especially) could unwind USD momentum.
🗓️ Upcoming Events to Watch
US Core PCE (June 28) – critical inflation gauge for the Fed
BoC Business Outlook Survey
Oil Inventories + Global energy sentiment
Geopolitical: Israel–Iran updates and Canada’s fiscal signals
🏁 Which Pair Leads the Move?
USDCAD is leading commodity crosses as CAD weakness broadens. Watch USDCAD and GBPCAD for signs of CAD softness before others like AUDCAD/NZDCAD follow.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3651
1st Support: 1.3581
1st Resistance: 1.3735
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USD/CAD H1 | Potential bounce off an overlap supportUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.3686 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.3633 which is a level that lies underneath anoverlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.3738 which is a swing-high resistance.
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USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
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"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Bullish rise for the Loonie?The price has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3703
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3647
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 1.3857
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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USDCAD: Short Signal Explained
USDCAD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short USDCAD
Entry - 1.3734
Sl - 1.3780
Tp - 1.3648
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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UC WAITING GAME Looking to see how price reacts to this recent bearish rally, trend is biased for shorts. However, we can possible start to see price climb, I have a target in mind which is the green resistance (weekly) would like to see break and retest of the Daily (red line) before price continues to the mentioned target.