USDCHF Analysis: Break & Retest or Mean Reversion?Hello traders!
USDCHF is offering two trading scenarios on the daily timeframe.
The first scenario suggests the pair may react bearishly from the resistance zone, setting up a break-and-retest opportunity that could drive price lower toward the 0.80001 area.
The second scenario anticipates a bounce toward the 0.89100 region, where a mean reversion setup may come into play (if sellers step in and price action confirms bearish intent near that resistance).
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USDCHF trade ideas
USDCHF Confirmed bottom Buy SignalLast time we looked at the USDCHF pair was three months ago (February 05 2025, see chart below) and it gave us the best sell signal possible, easily hitting our 0.8400 Target:
This time the long-term price action has transitioned into a Megaphone pattern, whose bottom was reached on the April 21 Low. At the same time the 1D RSI hit the 18.90 Support, which has been the Ultimate Buy Signal for the August 05 2024 and December 28 2023 Lows.
Since the price has been rebounding since, we view this as a confirmed buy signal and the start of the Megaphone's new Bullish Leg. The previous two rose by +10% and +10.67% respectively so a mere repeat of the +10% rally, will hit at least 0.88000.
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USD/CHF Sideways Phase Could Break on Trade Sentiment Shift USD/CHF Weekly Setup – Sideways Phase Could Break on Trade Sentiment Shift
USD/CHF is currently consolidating in a tight range near 0.8300, but under the surface, big moves are brewing.
Last week, the pair pulled back as US bond yields dipped lower and the USD weakened. However, this isn’t just about technicals — the bigger story is coming from trade negotiations, central bank signals, and global inflation pressures.
🌍 What’s Driving the Market?
1️⃣ US-China Trade Talks Return to Spotlight
Early signs of progress in global trade relations helped stabilize market sentiment. President Trump confirmed a preliminary trade agreement with the UK and hinted at cautious talks with China this weekend in Switzerland. While no breakthroughs are expected, any surprise deal or tariff easing could lift the USD.
2️⃣ SNB Dovish Tilt Pressures CHF
SNB Chairman Schlegel has opened the door for more rate cuts if the Swiss economy continues to show weakness. April CPI came in flat, and core inflation dropped, adding to the dovish case.
3️⃣ Fed Uncertainty
While the Fed held rates steady, markets are still debating the next move. The bond market suggests rate cuts are now less likely in the short-term, which could offer near-term support to the USD.
📊 Technical Picture – H4 Outlook
Price is forming a sideways accumulation just under the 0.8310 level. A deeper FVG (Fair Value Gap) still exists overhead from the recent drop. If USD strength returns, a clean break toward this imbalance zone is likely.
We're also seeing lower shadows and absorption wicks near support zones, signaling buyers are active at the bottom of this range.
📌 Key Levels
BUY ZONE:
→ 0.8265 – 0.8245
SL: 0.8200
TP targets:
→ 0.8325
→ 0.8365
→ 0.8425
→ 0.8585
🧠 Strategy Notes
This setup is range-to-breakout biased.
If the market responds positively to US-China trade headlines or US bond yields recover, USD/CHF could launch higher into the imbalance zone.
Watch for a confirmed H4 breakout candle above 0.8320 for added confidence.
Keep in mind the SNB meeting on June 19th — markets may start pricing in policy shifts earlier than expected.
📣 Final Thoughts
USD/CHF is at a turning point — and what happens next will depend less on indicators and more on trade diplomacy and central bank tones. As always, let the market show its hand.
✅ Wait for price to come to your zone.
⛔ Don’t chase moves in this volatility.
🔔 Stay alert to any headlines from the US, China, or SNB this week.
#USDCHF: Will USD Breakthrough The Strong Bearish Downtrend? The USDCHF currency pair has experienced significant volatility due to the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, which has led to a substantial decline in the DXY index. Consequently, CHF and JPY have emerged as the most stable currencies in the market.
Despite the USDCHF currency pair reversing its bullish trend, we anticipate a potential reversal back to a bearish position. We believe this reversal may be a temporary trap, and the currency pair is likely to regain its bullish position in the future.
There are two potential areas where the USDCHF currency pair could reverse from its current trend. The first area is relatively early, and if the USDCHF currency pair crosses a specific region, we may have a second safe option that could provide greater stability.
We extend our best wishes and best of luck in your trading endeavours. Your unwavering support is greatly appreciated.
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Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF is reacting off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 0.8213
1st Support: 0.8116
1st Resistance: 0.8357
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/CHF..4h chart pattern..I'm considering a **BUY trade on USD/CHF** with an **entry at 0.83170** and a **target at 0.8600**. Let's analyze this trade setup:
### **Trade Summary (USD/CHF Buy)**
- **Entry:** 0.83170
- **Target:** 0.8600
- **Potential Gain:** **283 pips** (0.8600 - 0.83170 = 0.0283)
### **Key Considerations:**
1. **Current Market Context:**
- USD/CHF has been influenced by **USD strength** or **CHF weakness**.
- Check recent economic data (e.g., US inflation, Fed policy vs. SNB actions).
- If the **Swiss National Bank (SNB) is dovish** or the **Fed is hawkish**, this trade could work.
2. **Technical Levels:**
- **Support:** If 0.8317 is a key support (e.g., recent swing low), buying here makes sense.
- **Resistance:** 0.8600 is a psychological level and may act as strong resistance.
- **Stop Loss (SL):** Consider placing a stop below a recent low (e.g., 0.8250 or lower).
3. **Risk Management:**
- A **283-pip profit** is sizable, but ensure your **risk-reward ratio** is favorable (e.g., 1:2 or better).
- Example: If your stop loss is **100 pips**, your risk-reward is **~1:2.8**, which is good.
4. **Fundamental Triggers:**
- Watch for **US CPI, Fed speeches, or SNB interventions**.
- If the **USD strengthens further**, this trade could accelerate upward.
### **Final Thoughts:**
- This trade has a **strong potential** if USD continues upward momentum.
- **Monitor resistance levels** (0.8400, 0.8500) for possible pullbacks.
- **Always use a stop loss** to protect against unexpected reversals.
Would you like help with **stop-loss placement** or **technical confirmation signals**? 🚀
Day 1 of turning £20 to £1million in 1 yearThis is day one of the challenge turning 20gbp to 1 million GBP within 1 year.
Expressed thoughts on some fundamentals going on right now and the approach for this week. This was posted 15 minutes before market open on a Sunday. Let the fun commence.
Ideally trying to complete this before 11th May 2026 hitting 1 million by then.
USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D8 Y25USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D8 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Market Analysis: USD/CHF Regains StrengthMarket Analysis: USD/CHF Regains Strength
USD/CHF is rising and might aim for a move toward the 0.8400 resistance.
Important Takeaways for USD/CHF Analysis Today
- USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.8265 resistance zone.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8300 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from the 0.8200 support. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.8245 resistance zone against the Swiss Franc.
The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8300. A high was formed at 0.8340 and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8185 swing low to the 0.8340 high.
There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8300. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 0.8340. The main resistance is now near 0.8350.
If there is a clear break above the 0.8350 resistance zone and the RSI remains above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.8400. If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 0.8300 level.
The first major support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 0.8265 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8185 swing low to the 0.8340 high.
The next key support is near the 0.8245 level. A downside break below 0.8245 might spark bearish moves. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward the 0.8200 level in the near term.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D6 Y25USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D6 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USDCHF SUPPLY ZONE (DOWNTREND)PATTERN. Key Technical Levels:
Support: The pair has found support near 0.8220, which has helped stabilize its recent movements .
Resistance: Immediate resistance is observed at 0.8333, with a more significant resistance zone between 0.8482 and 0.8550, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 0.9200 to 0.8038 decline .
Trading Strategy:
Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 0.8333 could open the path toward the 0.8482–0.8550 resistance zone.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold above 0.8220 may lead to a retest of the recent low at 0.8038, potentially resuming the broader downtrend.
Traders should remain vigilant for the Federal Reserve's announcement, as it may introduce volatility and influence the USD/CHF's direction.
Trump's latest tariff announcement weakens the dollar🔔🔔🔔 USD/CHF news:
➡️ US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tax on films produced outside the country. A move to reimpose tariffs by President D. Trump. This move, once again raised concerns about the Trump administration's tariff policy. At the same time, the uncertain context of potential trade agreements between the United States and its trading partners has not been completed, causing the USD bulls to decrease. The US dollar fell again amid trade uncertainty and repositioning before the Fed.
Personal opinion:
➡️ The trade agreements are still uncertain and it is positive only at the level of cooling down between the parties involved, causing the USD to decrease.
➡️ Analysis based on important support resistance and Fibonacci levels combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell USD/CHF 0.8256 - 0.8270
❌SL: 0.8296 | ✅TP: 0.8200
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is reacting off the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 0.8199
1st Support: 0.8116
1st Resistance: 0.8371
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.8391
1st Support: 0.8195
1st Resistance: 0.8598
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 0.8276
1st Support: 0.8218
1st Resistance: 0.8373
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish rise?USD/CHF has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8278
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8244
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8366
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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USDCHF Trade Opportunity AnalysisGood morning, esteemed traders,
Today, I would like to bring your attention to a significant trading opportunity regarding the USDCHF currency pair. After experiencing a considerable decline throughout April, we have observed a consolidation phase lasting over a month. Importantly, USDCHF has attempted to breach the resistance level at approximately 0.8343 on three separate occasions, indicating strong interest at this pivotal price point.
Notably, we witnessed a false breakdown earlier this week, which likely served to lure additional sellers into the market. This move has set the stage for a potential bullish breakout . I anticipate a target of 322 pips from this trade, positioning it as a medium-term opportunity with an attractive Risk-to-Reward ratio of 1:2.
Here are the particulars for this trade setup:
- Entry Price: 0.8343
- Stop Loss: 0.8181
- Profit Target: 0.8666
As always, I encourage you to conduct your own analysis and consider your risk tolerance before entering any positions. Wishing you all profitable trading.
Best regards,
Ehsan