USDCHF trade ideas
USD/CHF trend todayUSD/CHF news:
👉The USD/CHF pair continues its recovery from the mid-0.8800s—its lowest level since December 12—gaining upward momentum for the second consecutive day on Thursday. During the Asian session, spot prices climb back above the 0.8900 level, although the upward movement remains limited due to ongoing bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
👉The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies, has dropped to a four-month low amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement multiple interest rate cuts this year. These expectations were reinforced by Wednesday's weak ADP report, which revealed that private-sector employers added only 77K jobs in February. Additionally, concerns persist that trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump could significantly slow the US economy, further weighing on the dollar.
👉However, a notable rebound in US Treasury bond yields helps further curb USD declines. Additionally, the risk-on sentiment in equity markets weakens demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF), offering some support to the USD/CHF pair. Nonetheless, traders may wait for stronger buying momentum before confirming a near-term bottom and anticipating further gains. Many may also remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Personal opinion:
👉USD/CHF will reverse lower after the bullish momentum gradually weakens and is replaced by less positive economic news for the USD.
Analysis:
👉Rely on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell USD/CHF 0.8920 – 0.8930
❌SL: 0.88960 | ✅TP: 0.8860 – 0.8820 – 0.8770
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USDCHF road map !!!I believe that if we look at the past prices, we will realize that the price may form a head and shoulders pattern and reach the desired supports.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
UPDATE ON USD/CHFUSD/CHF 1H - Since our Sunday Sessions video, price seems to be playing out well. As you can see price looks to be accumulating, giving us the suggestion that its preparing to reverse.
We want to see the last protected high break to give us full confluence that enough Demand has been introduced into this market to flip the S&D balance, I have gone ahead and marked it out for you all.
Once we see price break that high its then a case of waiting for price to pullback trading down and into a fractal area of Demand, this will be where we will look to enter from.
We will find this area of Demand by looking at the impulsive wave that breaks the structure to the upside, typically we see an area of interest display itself, giving us retail traders and area to enter from.
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗USD/CHF "The Swissy" ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! profits await!" however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or swing low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (0.90700) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 0.88500 & 0.88000 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term,{{{(>HIGH CHANCE FOR BULLISHNESS IN FUTURE<)}}} driven by several key factors.
⭐1. Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis evaluates the economic indicators driving the USD/CHF pair:
US Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: 2.3% – Indicates robust economic expansion.
Inflation: 3% – Moderately high, suggesting potential for further monetary tightening.
Interest Rates: 4.5% – Significantly higher than Switzerland, attracting capital flows to the USD.
Trade Balance: Deficit of -98.43 billion USD – A persistent deficit, though offset by strong growth and yield appeal.
Switzerland Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: 0.2% – Slow growth, reflecting a weaker economic performance.
Inflation: 0.4% – Very low, indicating stable but minimal price pressures.
Interest Rates: 0.5% – Low rates, reducing attractiveness for CHF-denominated assets.
Trade Balance: Surplus of 4029 million CHF – A positive factor, though overshadowed by interest rate differentials.
Key Insight: The significant interest rate differential (4.5% vs. 0.5%) favors the USD, potentially driving capital outflows from CHF to USD, supporting a bullish USD/CHF outlook.
⭐2. Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic conditions provide context for currency movements:
Global GDP Growth: Projected at 3.3% for 2025, with mixed regional performances.
US Economy: Strong growth (2.3%) and higher inflation (3%) may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or increase rates, bolstering the USD.
Swiss Economy: Low growth (0.2%) and inflation (0.4%) suggest the Swiss National Bank will maintain a stable, low-rate policy, limiting CHF strength.
Commodity Prices: Expected to decline, which typically supports the USD due to its inverse correlation with commodities.
Stock Markets: International stocks outperforming US markets could influence risk sentiment, though this has a muted direct impact on USD/CHF.
Key Insight: Stronger US macroeconomic fundamentals versus Switzerland’s stability tilt the balance toward USD appreciation.
⭐3. Global Market Analysis
Global factors influencing the USD/CHF pair:
Geopolitical Events: Potential tensions could boost CHF as a safe-haven currency, though no specific events are currently noted.
Central Bank Policies:
Federal Reserve: Possible further rate hikes if US data remains strong, supporting USD.
Swiss National Bank: Likely to maintain low rates, limiting CHF upside.
Commodity Trends: Declining prices may bolster USD strength, given its commodity inverse relationship.
Market Performance: Mixed global stock performance suggests neutral risk sentiment, with minimal immediate impact on USD/CHF.
Key Insight: Absent major risk-off events, the USD benefits from higher yields and a stable global outlook.
⭐4. COT Data (Commitment of Traders)
COT data reflects trader positioning:
Non-Commercial Traders: Likely net long USD against CHF, driven by the interest rate differential and stronger US economic outlook.
Trend: Increasing long positions in USD suggest bullish sentiment among speculators.
Key Insight: Bullish positioning in COT data aligns with economic fundamentals, reinforcing a positive USD/CHF outlook.
⭐5. Intermarket Analysis
Correlations with other asset classes:
USD and Commodities: Typically inversely correlated; declining commodity prices could strengthen the USD.
CHF as Safe-Haven: Positively correlated with gold and JPY; CHF may gain in risk-off scenarios, though current conditions favor risk-on sentiment.
Stock Market Influence: Mixed performance has a limited direct effect, but a shift to risk-off could support CHF.
Key Insight: Declining commodity prices favor USD, while CHF’s safe-haven appeal remains a potential counterforce in adverse conditions.
⭐6. Quantitative Analysis
Technical indicators based on the current price of 0.89700:
Moving Averages: Assuming the price is above key moving averages (e.g., 50-day or 200-day), this suggests an uptrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): If not in overbought territory (e.g., below 70), there’s room for further gains.
Support/Resistance Levels:
Support: 0.8900 – A potential downside target if the trend reverses.
Resistance: 0.9009 and 0.9026 – Upside targets if bullish momentum continues.
Key Insight: Technicals suggest an uptrend, with potential to test higher resistance levels.
⭐7. Market Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment gauged from trader behavior:
Current Sentiment: Likely moderately bullish on USD/CHF, reflecting economic and technical factors.
Contrarian Risk: Extreme bullish sentiment could signal a reversal, but current levels appear sustainable.
Key Insight: Sentiment supports a bullish outlook, though traders should monitor for overcrowding.
⭐8. Positioning
Trader positioning insights:
Speculative Positions: Increased long positions in USD, as per COT data assumptions, indicate confidence in further gains.
Institutional Flows: Higher US yields likely attract institutional capital to USD assets.
Key Insight: Positioning reinforces the bullish case for USD/CHF.
⭐9. Next Trend Move
Direction: Likely upward, driven by interest rate differentials, technical momentum, and economic strength.
Key Insight: The next move favors an upward continuation, barring unexpected economic or geopolitical shifts.
Short-Term Outlook: The USD/CHF pair could experience downward pressure in the near term, potentially testing key support levels such as 0.8900. If this level is breached, the pair might decline further toward 0.8850 or lower.
⭐10. Overall Summary Outlook
Summary: The USD/CHF pair, at 0.89700 on March 4, 2025, exhibits a bullish outlook. Key drivers include the significant US-Switzerland interest rate differential (4.5% vs. 0.5%), stronger US GDP growth (2.3% vs. 0.2%), and higher inflation (3% vs. 0.4%). Technical indicators suggest an uptrend, supported by bullish trader positioning and declining commodity price expectations. Risks include potential global risk-off events boosting CHF’s safe-haven status or weaker-than-expected US data tempering Fed rate hike expectations. However, the prevailing trend points to further USD appreciation.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is reacting off the pivot, which serves as a pullback support. A bounce from this level could indicate a double bottom pattern, potentially leading to a price rise toward the first resistance
Pivot: 0.8774
1st Support: 0.8699
1st Resistance: 0.8863
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USDCHF H4 | Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 0.8773, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci propjection
Our take profit will be at 0.8856, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.8700, which is an overlap support level.
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/CHF is reacting off the support level, which is a pullback support. A bounce from this level could indicate a double bottom pattern, potentially leading to a price rise toward our take profit.
Entry: 0.8778
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracememt.
Stop loss: 0.8696
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8916
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USD_CHF SWING LONG|
✅USD_CHF is approaching a demand level of 0.8704
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bullish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
LONG🚀
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USD-CHF Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF keeps falling down
In a strong downtrend but the
Pair is locally oversold so after
The horizontal support level
Of 0.8760 is retested we will
Be expecting a local
Bullish correction
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
USDCHF: Channel Down bottomed. Buy opportunity.USDCHF turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.423, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 28.684), hitting the LL bottom of the Channel Down. The 4H RSI has made a Double Bottom and this is technically an ideal level to start buying the pair again. We expect a +2.60% rise like the late January bullish wave that will test the 4H MA200. The trade is long, TP = 0.89900.
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USDCHF Wave Analysis – 7 March 2025
- USDCHF broke the support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 0.8750
USDCHF currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 0.8900 (which has been reversing the price from December), the support trendline of the daily down channel from January and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active strong downward impulse wave C of the ABC correction (B) from January.
USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8750 (the monthly low from December and the target for the completion of wave C).
USD/CHF | Channel breakdown bullish Retest of high chance Easy?📉 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish Breakdown & High-Probability Trade Setup 📉
The USD/CHF bullish channel has officially broken down, confirming a strong bearish momentum This breakdown signals a shift in market structure with price action moving into a major selling zone
With a fair value gap (FVG) and key retest levels traders should focus on ideal short entries within a critical price range before further downside continuation
🔥 Key Trading Levels & Setup:
📌 Retest Entry Zone: 0.9050 - 0.9100
🎯 Target Points:
✅ 1st Target: 0.8900
✅ 2nd Target: 0.8830
✅ 3rd Target: 0.8750
📊 Technical Confirmation:
🔹 EMA 50 → Confirms a bearish trend shift acting as dynamic resistance
🔹 Channel Breakdown → Indicates strong selling pressure from institutional traders
🔹 Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Retest Levels → Possible pullbacks before the next drop
🔹 Lower Highs & Lower Lows → Classic market structure for a downtrend
🚀 Trading Strategy:
1️⃣ Wait for a retest within the 0.9050 - 0.9100 zone to confirm market rejection.
2️⃣ Look for bearish candlestick formations (e.g bearish engulfing, shooting star).
3️⃣ Enter a short position with a controlled stop loss above the retest zone.
4️⃣ Follow risk management – maintain a strong risk-reward ratio.
5️⃣ Target the downside levels step by step while adjusting stop-loss for profit protection.
🔴 Risk Management is Key: Always set stop losses and avoid over-leveraging.
📢 Follow the Rules & Trade Smart!
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USDCHF at Key Support Zone – Potential Rebound to 0.89000OANDA:USDCHF has reached a significant support zone, marked by prior price reactions and strong buying interest. This area has previously acted as a key demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bullish bounce if buyers step in.
If the price confirms support within this zone through bullish price action—such as long lower wicks or bullish engulfing candles—we could see a reversal toward 0.89000, a logical target based on previous market structure and price behavior.
However, if the price breaks below this support zone and sustains, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, potentially leading to further downside.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!