USDCHF Showing a high tendecy to go shortPair is showing tendency to go short, with strong resistance level at 0.90200. Price is facing resistance at 0.90200 which could act as a barrier for further upward movement. TP1: 0.89720 & TP2: 0.89213
USDCHF trade ideas
USDCHF Bearish TrendUSDCHF is showing bearish trend, we can enter into the short trade after the break of last low keeping last high as stop loss.
USDCHF H4 Short IdeaOn this analytical chart we can observe the workout according to the elliot wave theory. There is the third touch of the zone for long-short movement
USD/CHF: Possible Reversal Pattern🇨🇭🇺🇸USD/CHF: Possible Reversal Pattern🌄
📉 On the 4-hour chart of the USD/CHF pair, we might be seeing a reversal pattern – a triple top. 🧠 On Friday and today during the Asian session, the base of the top at 0.90 was broken. Now, price is trying to test this key support level as resistance. If there’s a bounce and price doesn’t return above 0.90, we expect the triple top pattern to play out, with a gradual decline in the USD/CHF rate, targeting the first support level at 0.89. 🚀
Looking at the 30-minute chart, the price is moving in a parallel channel with a slight upward slope. 📈 We are ready to open a short position if the price breaks the channel down. With low liquidity due to the US holidays, the breakout may happen either today or likely tomorrow when the market returns to normal. 🕒
Longterm swingtrend idea on USD/CHFAs we know USD has been strong for all autumn and winter. Now with Trump in the office and uncertainty in markets we can expect big moves in both directions.
In current moment when writing USD is testing diagonal trendline and it looks like it can break at any moment soon.
Watch and wait for price to show what it wants to do. If it holds line and goes up wait for it to reach latest hights before shorts. But if it breaks wait for pullback towards trendline and sell.
In short term this can deffinitly play out. How far down we can go we don't know. So take out your positions and keep some contracts running with trailing stops.
Sell usdchfStrong sell expected
Day buy trend breaks
H4 buy trend breaks
Monthly still oversold indicators
USDCHF → Struggle for the 0.900 zone. Trend change?FX:USDCHF earlier broke the uptrend when the fundamental background changed and the dollar went into correction. A set-up appears on the chart, which can strengthen the maneuver
Fundamentally, the situation is complicated because of the tariff war, which was organized by Trump, and European countries are reciprocating. Economic risks are on the rise. In addition, after Trump and Powell's hints about possible rate cuts, the dollar went into correction, which has a favorable impact on forex.
Technically, the 0.9000 level plays an important role as it is quite a strong zone. If the bears are able to keep the price below this mark, in the selling zone, it will be a confirmation of the trend change and the price will be able to head down.
Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9045, 0.9065
Support levels: 0.89157
I do not exclude the fact that the price may return to the range and test 0.5 Fibo, but the technical and fundamental background hints at a possible decline. Emphasis on 0.900.
Regards R. Linda!
what a week it was!!! still looking for better opportunities pound gained against the dollar last week same happened to euro against the green buck. GBPUSD gave us nice buy oppotunities on the demand areas and respected the ema so tightly , we will be looking for more bullish continuations up to price 1.05750 . EURUSD gained as investors and traders went long , for me i will be looking for bullish continuations @ 1.05750 the we might get slight retracement. keep up with oil we have globally the prices of oil drop from 74$ per barrel to 70$ per barrel . my predictions would be to still see the price of oil drop further in future , we shall be looking to go short once the market retraces back to price 72.15 $ per barrel
Usdchf for sellPrice hit a major resistance level, failed to break above it in the past, bounced it off thrice. It broke out of the support below and retested it. Wait for bearish candlestick confirmation and take entry for short.
possibility of downtrendConsidering the price behavior within the current support level, possible scenarios have been identified. As long as the price does not consolidate above the green resistance level, the downtrend will likely continue.
USD/CHF Short PositionI've entered a short position on USD/CHF after price broke below the ascending trendline (green), which had been respected since October 2024. This breakdown signals a potential trend reversal, aligning with my bearish outlook.
🔻 Trade Details:
Entry: ~0.90060
Stop Loss: Above the descending trendline (red) at 0.91560
Risk Management:
TP 1 @ 0.89274 (Move SL to BE)
TP 2 @ 0.87856
TP 3 @ 0.86352
TP 4 @ 0.85142
This setup follows a structured risk management approach with partial take profits to lock in gains while letting the trade run.
USDCHF H4 I Bearish fall from the 38.2%?Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 0.9030, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 0.8957, a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
The stop loss is set at 0.9093, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Falling towards 61.8% Fibonacci support?The Swissie (USD/CHF ) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.8916
1st Support: 0.8752
1st Resistance: 0.9206
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Bearish drop off overlap resistance?USD/CHF is rising toward the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.9009
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.9057
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.8919
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USD/CHF Weekly Forecast: Potential Short Opportunity Market Outlook:
The USD/CHF pair appears to be setting up for a potential short opportunity this week, based on key technical signals from the weekly chart. Here’s why:
1. Key Resistance Rejection & Price Action:
• Price is testing a strong resistance zone, aligning with a previous high.
• There is rejection wicks forming at this level, signaling a struggle for buyers to push higher.
• The red zone highlights a potential area for price reversal, with an expectation of bearish movement from this level.
2. Moving Averages Alignment (Bearish Bias)
• The 50 MA (yellow) and 200 MA (red) are acting as dynamic resistance.
• A rejection from this level suggests that price could be respecting the longer-term moving average structure.
• If price fails to close above this resistance, it strengthens the bearish bias.
3. RSI & Momentum Indicators Showing Weakness
• RSI appears to be in a potential overbought zone or showing divergence.
• This suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, supporting a short scenario.
Reactions to Drawn ZonesThe daily and 4-hour timeframes are exhibiting a bearish trend, and the 15-minute timeframe is also showing a bearish trend. This indicates that if the price undergoes a correction on the 15-minute timeframe, which serves as the trigger timeframe, and reaches the drawn zone, a short position (sell) can be entered after receiving confirmation.
USDCHFBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/CHF, structured similarly to the provided model:
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF (February 2025)
This analysis examines updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
United States
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The US economy continues to expand at a robust pace, bolstered by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
• Inflation:
• Despite ongoing pressures, US inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, maintaining a cautious outlook on price stability.
• Fed Monetary Policy:
• In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range, balancing the need to contain inflation while supporting economic growth.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Low unemployment figures underscore the strength of the US labor market, contributing to positive economic sentiment.
Switzerland
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The Swiss economy showed modest growth in Q4 2024, reflecting its traditional resilience amid global uncertainties.
• Inflation:
• Inflation in Switzerland remains subdued, close to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target, owing to stable domestic demand and cautious fiscal policies.
• SNB Monetary Policy:
• In early February 2025, the SNB maintained its accommodative stance, keeping policy rates low to support ongoing economic stability and counteract external shocks.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Switzerland’s labor market remains tight, though wage growth is moderate, reflecting a cautious approach amid global economic challenges.
2. Geopolitical Factors
• Trade Relations and Global Uncertainty:
• Heightened global geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties continue to influence market sentiment. The USD often benefits from its safe-haven status during times of turmoil, while the CHF, as another traditional safe haven, sometimes sees increased demand.
• Fiscal Policies:
• Expansionary fiscal measures in the US, combined with debates on budget deficits, could weigh on the dollar in the long term. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s conservative fiscal policies support the franc’s stability.
• Financial Market Sentiment:
• Shifts in investor sentiment between risk-on and risk-off environments will continue to influence USD/CHF dynamics, with both currencies reacting to global economic and political developments.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
• Long Positions: 70,000
• Short Positions: 74,500
• Net Position: -4,500 (net short on CHF relative to USD)
• This positioning suggests that large speculators lean towards a stronger USD in the near term.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
• Long Positions: 95,000
• Short Positions: 82,000
• Net Position: +13,000 (net long on CHF)
• Indicates that commercial entities, typically more focused on hedging, see longer-term stability or a modest appreciation for the CHF.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
• Long Positions: 5,000
• Short Positions: 4,200
• Net Position: +800 (net long on CHF)
• Reflects a moderately bullish sentiment for the Swiss franc among retail traders.
Interpretation:
• The net short positioning by large speculators favors the USD in the short term.
• However, the long positions of commercial and small traders suggest a balanced longer-term outlook, with an expectation for CHF stability.
4. Possible Scenarios for USD/CHF
Scenario 1: USD Strength (Bearish for CHF)
• Triggers:
• Continued robust US economic performance and a maintained or slightly hawkish stance by the Fed.
• Heightened global risk aversion boosting safe-haven flows to the USD.
• Outcome:
• USD/CHF could rise, potentially trading above 0.925.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
• Triggers:
• Mixed economic data from both the US and Switzerland, leading to a “wait-and-see” approach by both the Fed and SNB.
• Outcome:
• USD/CHF may trade within a narrow range, roughly between 0.915 and 0.925.
Scenario 3: CHF Strength (Bullish for CHF)
• Triggers:
• Signs of cooling in the US economy or a dovish pivot by the Fed in response to slower growth.
• Continued safe-haven demand for the CHF amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
• Outcome:
• USD/CHF could decline, with the pair potentially moving below 0.915.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/CHF: Consolidation with a Potential for USD Strength
Reasons:
• Large speculators are currently net short on CHF, indicating a short-term tilt in favor of the USD.
• The robust performance of the US economy, supported by strong consumer spending and low unemployment, bolsters the USD outlook.
• Although the SNB maintains an accommodative stance, its conservative fiscal policies contribute to the franc’s stability, which may prevent a drastic move lower.
• Should the Fed remain on its current policy path, USD/CHF may consolidate in a range that offers opportunities for a gradual USD strength.
Target:
• In the coming months, USD/CHF may consolidate between 0.915 and 0.925, with the possibility of a move toward the upper end of this range if US economic data continues to impress.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are solely the responsibility of the investor.
If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
USD-CHF Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF fell down again
But a strong horizontal
Support level is close by
At 0.8937 so after the
Pair retests the support
On Monday, we will be
Expecting a local
Bullish correction
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
USDCHF💡The chart shows technical analysis of the USDCHF currency pair On the daily time frame D1. Rising channel:⬆️ The price was moving within an ascending channel ✨Channel break: The price broke the bottom line of the channel, which may indicate a trend change to down.
If the price continues below the channel, it may head to one of the identified support areas. If the price returns inside the channel, it may retest the resistance. The MACD is showing weakness in the upward momentum, which supports the bearish idea.⬇️
⛔️It is not investment advice for educational purposes only.
USDCHF Uptrend continuation, The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25USDCHF currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term The prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the rising support trendline zone.
The key trading level is at 0.8980 level, the previous consolidation price range and also the rising support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 0.8980 level could target the upside resistance at 0.9050 (20 Day Moving Average) followed by the 0.9100 and 0.9220 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 0.8980 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 0.8930 support level followed by 0.8860.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDCHF Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDCHF.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 0.898.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 0.889 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USD/CHF Breakout from Uptrend Channel, Potential for BearishIn the daily time frame chart of USD/CHF, it is evident that the price has broken out of the uptrend channel that had previously constrained price movements over the past few months. This breakout occurred after the price failed to breach the resistance around the blue area, which marks the previous local high. After testing the channel support multiple times, the price eventually experienced a breakdown, indicated by a solid red candlestick closing below the channel’s support line (highlighted in the yellow area with the "Breakout" label).
This breakout signals a potential shift from a bullish trend to a deeper correction, with downside targets at 0.88 and 0.87, as marked by the horizontal blue lines below the current price. These levels serve as key targets since they have previously acted as strong support areas.
Short selling can be considered with additional confirmation, such as a retracement to the breakdown area for a more optimal entry. Conversely, if the price moves back into the uptrend channel and holds above the breakout level, this bearish scenario may become invalid.
Risk management remains crucial, with an ideal stop loss placed above the breakout area to mitigate the risk of a false breakout. If selling pressure continues, the next target will be 0.87.
USD/CHF: Avoiding a false dichotomyThe US dollar is in a correction of its uptrend (see EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD etc)
Do we really face a linear option of fade or no trade?
Actually, it might be a false dichotomy .
Going long EUR/USD and GBP/USD (i.e. selling USD) would mean fading the major trend (as per the weekly charts).
But going short USD/CHF (i.e. also selling USD) would not be a counter trend trade because USD/CHF is in a trading range. Selling below resistance in a trading range is a high probability setup.
We can see the topping process on the daily chart, with 0.90 as the broken neckline.
Here the risk is well defined - if the price pops back over 0.90 - the breakdown trade is no longer on but while below 0.90, 0.88 is a natural target as the last major support area and the 30 week moving average.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Drop a comment
cheers!
Jasper
