USD/CHF BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on USD/CHF right now from the resistance line above with the target of 0.820 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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USDCHF trade ideas
ORBimport pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Load your data (CSV must have 'Datetime', 'Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close')
df = pd.read_csv('EURUSD_15min.csv', parse_dates= )
df.set_index('Datetime', inplace=True)
# Define the ORB time window (e.g., 9:00 to 9:15)
orb_start = '09:00:00'
orb_end = '09:15:00'
# Extract opening range
orb_range = df.between_time(orb_start, orb_end)
orb_high = orb_range .max()
orb_low = orb_range .min()
# Identify breakout
df = df > orb_high
df = df < orb_low
# Plot breakout levels and entries
plt.figure(figsize=(14,6))
plt.plot(df , label='Close Price', alpha=0.7)
plt.axhline(orb_high, color='green', linestyle='--', label='ORB High')
plt.axhline(orb_low, color='red', linestyle='--', label='ORB Low')
# Mark breakout points
plt.plot(df [df ].index, df [df ] , '^', color='green', label='Long Entry')
plt.plot(df [df ].index, df [df ] , 'v', color='red', label='Short Entry')
plt.title('EUR/USD ORB Strategy (15-Min)')
plt.legend()
plt.grid()
plt.show()
USDCHF H4 I Bearish Fall from the 50% FIboBased on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 0.8265, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 0.8195, an overlap support.
The stop loss is set at 0.8332, a swing high resistance.
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Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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USDCHF Trade IdeaUSDCHF trades flat despite upbeat US jobs data.It hits an intraday low of 0.82189 and is currently trading around 0.82590. Intraday bias appears to be bullish as long as the support 0.8180 holds.
The U.S. April 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), released on May 2, 2025, reported decelerating employment expansion with a rise of 177,000 jobs, lower than a revised 185,000 in the prior month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Significant job gains were seen in health care, transport and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance, but federal government jobs fell. Median hourly earnings increased 0.3% from last month and 3.8% over the year, and the average workweek continued at 34.3 hours.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside
The pair is trading below the 34-EMA and 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart indicates a minor down trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8280 any break above targets 0.8300/0.8350/0.8380/0.8500.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8180, any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8135/0.8090/0.8000.
Indicators
CCI (50) - Bearish
Directional movement Index - Neutral
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to buy on dips around 0.8230 with a stop-loss at 0.8180 for a TP of 0.8500.
UsdChf Trade IdeaUC at the moment is currently sitting below a major support level which I would need to see get tapped into to determine our direction for the week. Once price broke below we never got the retest to confirm if shorts were coming into play. We only had price break below and then range so there's no clear direction here for me. Price can either retest 84000 and confirm shorts or push back above with bullish structures to support buying opportunities.
USD/CHF SHORT OUTLOOK. 5/4/25📉 USD/CHF – SHORT SETUP
• Current Price: ~0.8263
• Trend: Bearish, with potential for further downside
• Technical Outlook: USD/CHF remains in a long-term downtrend, with potential to retest the 0.8038 level. A break below this could target the 0.7382 level. 
Trade Plan:
• Entry Zone: 0.8295–0.8318
• Confirmation: Bearish engulfing pattern on M15/H1, RSI ≤ 40, SAR above price, and volume spike
• Stop Loss: 30 pips above entry
• Take Profit:
• TP1: 0.8215
• TP2: 0.8180
•
• Confidence: High ✅
USD/CHF: Bearish ForecastPrice is likely to retrace into the 0.83593 – 0.85750 demand zone or push higher into the FVG (0.8700 – 0.8800) before facing rejection. As long as price holds below these zones, the downtrend should continue, targeting new lows below 0.8100.
Bearish momentum remains intact unless price breaks above the FVG.
USDCHF INTRADAY previous resistance retestRecent price action in USDCHF suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 0.8300 level.
The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 0.8090, followed by 0.8040 and 0.7940.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 0.8300, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, USDCHF could target 0.8365, with further resistance at 0.8450 and 0.8520.
Conclusion:
The price remains below pivotal level, with 0.8300 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favour of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move.
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USDCHF road map !!!I believe that if we look at the past prices, we will realize that the price may form a head and shoulders pattern and reach the desired supports.
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USDCHF short: Sellers Getting Ready to DominateAfter a strong impulse from buyers, we saw exhaustion near the highs. Price retraced to a major support zone, but instead of a strong bounce, we got a tight, controlled accumulation range.
the higher timeframe, i.e 4H is in a strong downmove
What’s interesting is the structure within that box: the breakout attempts are weak, volatility is contracting, and there’s a noticeable lack of bullish follow-through—just coiling.
Smart money doesn’t chase—they trap. This triangle near key support is exactly where larger players hide intentions behind "indecision." But to me, the silence screams. This doesn’t look like preparation for a markup—it feels like a setup for distribution under the disguise of consolidation.
I’m anticipating a sellers' takeover.
Entry Idea: Short on breakdown of triangle structure or on a faker as shown on the chart
Stop: Above false breakout wick
Target: Near 0.80408 (based on prior imbalance + clean levels below)
Risk-reward speaks for itself.
Let’s see if the tape reveals what I believe it’s been hiding in plain sight.
Market Analysis: USD/CHF – 4H ChartThe USD/CHF pair is exhibiting a **clear bearish trend** on the 4-hour chart, with price currently consolidating around the **0.81500** level after a sharp decline. This consolidation is forming a **range-bound structure**, with support near the recent H4 low and resistance around the **0.82500** zone.
Key Observations:
Bearish momentum remains dominant, evidenced by lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently trading just above a well-tested H4 support level.
There are two probable outcomes from this consolidation zone:
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout:
A rejection from the H4 support could see price push back towards the **0.82500** level.
A breakout beyond this resistance could lead to further recovery towards **0.83500** or higher.
2. **Bearish Continuation**:
A break below the H4 support zone would confirm further downside momentum.
This could lead price towards the next key support around **0.80000**, with potential extension to the **0.78500** region.
Conclusion:
USD/CHF is currently at a decision point within a broader bearish structure. Traders should watch for a breakout from the current range to confirm the next directional move, with **0.82500** and **0.80000** acting as critical inflection zones.
USD/CHF High-confidence, Trend-Aligned setup. – April 26 2025 1️⃣ Technical Outlook
TF Structure & Momentum Verdict
Weekly (W1) Lower-lows since Jan; bearish OB at 0.8400 caps rallies Bearish
Daily (D1) Clean bearish channel; Friday close < mid-channel Bearish
H4 Consolidation under 0.8335 FVG after liquidity sweep Bearish
Trend-Aligned ✅
2️⃣ Primary Alert Zones (H4)
Zone Price Type Setup Idea
0.8335 – 0.8350 Bearish OB + FVG Break-&-retest short
0.8260 – 0.8250 Weekly swing low TP1 / possible bounce
0.8200 – 0.8180 Liquidity pocket TP2 / extended target
3️⃣ Indicator Snapshot
RSI (H4): 38 → momentum still weak
MACD (D1): below 0, widening histo → bearish pressure
ATR (1 h): ≈ 10 pips (14-period)
Tick Vol (trigger-candle rule): need > 20 % above avg
4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar
USD side: Dollar Index 99.25, stabilising after 4-wk slide
Investing.com
CHF side: SNB jawboning risk – talk of curbing CHF strength
Investing.com
Next Red-Flag Events:
FOMC (May 6-7) – full blackout starts Apr 26 00:00 (today)
Home
US ISM Mfg (May 1)
Swiss CPI (May 2)
Net positioning: CFTC shows record CHF longs vs USD → crowded trade (contrarian squeeze risk).
Risk Mood: Equities firm; CHF retains safe-haven bid if risk fades.
5️⃣ Trade Considerations (BEES v2)
Entry Trigger: M15 bearish engulf at 0.8335 OB + volume > 20 %
Rejection Filters: No trade if price < 0.8300 without retest (chase risk)
No-Trade Zone: ±50 pips around 0.8400 HTF resistance unless clean breakout
6️⃣ Risk Management
ATR-based SL: 1.5 × 10 pips ≈ 15 pips
TP Plan:
TP1 0.8260 (≈ 2 R)
TP2 0.8200 (≈ 3 R)
Trail remainder via H1 swing highs
7️⃣ Execution Checklist ✅/❌
HTF trend aligned
Volume surge > 20 % required
Outside 6 h of red-flag release (entry after NY open Mon)
Confidence ≥ High
Price not in No-Trade Zone
8️⃣ Pre-Trade Grading (0–2 each)
Criterion Score
Trend Alignment 2
Confluence Strength 2
Price Behaviour 2
Risk : Reward Quality 2
Event Risk Filtered 1
Total 9 / 10 → Trade Valid
🗺️ Time-Based Volatility Map
Session Expectation
Asia (Sun 17:00-00:00 EST) Likely gap fill, low vol
London (03:00-06:00 EST) Highest probability retest zone
NY (08:00-11:00 EST) USD data spikes; monitor spreads
🧩 Correlation Radar
EUR/CHF also heavy – confirms CHF strength
DXY soft; correlated pairs (USD/CAD, USD/JPY) biased lower
USD/CHF H1 | Rising into a pullback resistanceUSD/CHF is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8269 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 0.8345 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8194 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USD/CHF Outlook: Bearish Shift ExpectedHello,
FX:USDCHF has experienced further upside, but downside is still expected. CHF maintains a stable monetary policy with a favorable risk stance, though economic data is mixed. Despite this, its safe haven status is influenced by regional factors, with a shift into bearish territory anticipated soon.
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TradeWithTheTrend3344
USDCHF – breakout (down), retest and bearish continuation The area between 0.8410 and 0.8330 has been a solid support but recently, price broke (to the downside). Now, price has been pulling back for a re-test and I believe that next week we may see a bearish continuation. Price will also come closer to the 20ema that I rely on as a guide to the mean.
I will be watching this area on a lower time frame, looking for bearish price action to go short. If bearish price action does resume, we are likely to see the round number 0.8000 be achieved.
This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
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USDCHF I Intraday Long Opportunity from Support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDCHF Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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USDCHF | 15M | Needs to break for uptrendHey there my friend;
I’ve prepared my analysis of USD/CHF for you. For USD/CHF to move into an upward trend, it needs to break out of the parallel channel. Once it breaks out of the parallel channel, I’ll share the target levels with you.
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