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U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc

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USDCHF trade ideas

USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. 1. U.S. Budget Deficit: The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023. 2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies: BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar. 3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates: On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity. 4. Remarks by SNB President: Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness. 5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value: The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
Swiss National Bank cuts by half-point, Swissy dipsThe Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Today's Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether the SNB would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. In the end, the central bank opted for a jumbo 50-bp cut, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The driver for the today's oversized cut was the November inflation report, which came in at -0.1% for a second straight month. Inflation hasn't posted a gain in six months and the SNB is concerned that inflation could fall below the 0%-2% target. The 50-bp cut marks the SNB's biggest rate reduction in 10 years. In its statement, the Bank pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, risks over US economic policy and political uncertainty in Europe. The statement was somewhat dovish, noting that "the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty". Today's rate cut marks the fourth reduction this year. The SNB has been aggressive in its easing cycle, with the twin goals of avoiding deflation and combating the Swiss franc's appreciation. The SNB does not want a highly-valued Swiss franc as this hurts the critical export sector. The central bank implemented a negative rate policy until mid-2022 and the SNB has not ruled out a return to negative rates. After the meeting, SNB President Martin Schlegel said that today's 50-bp cut had reduced the probability of negative rates. The SNB also released its updated inflation forecast at today's meeting. The September inflation report was revised downwards, with a forecast of 1.1% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025. USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.8860 and is testing resistance at 0.8879. Above, there is resistance at 0.8903 0.8836 and 0.8817 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF price action: bullish momentum after SNB decisionThe Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%, the largest reduction since January 2015, has sent the Swiss franc to its lowest value against the US dollar since November 2022. These aggressive cuts aim to bolster Switzerland's economy amidst rising unemployment and global uncertainties by making borrowing more affordable. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has surged above 0.89019, driven by the franc's depreciation and the broader positive sentiment towards the US dollar, which remains strong despite a slight dip. The Federal Reserve's cautious optimism concerning US inflation and a robust labor market suggests a gradual pace of future rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength relative to the franc. In the short term, if the SNB maintains its accommodative strategy while the Fed takes a measured approach, the USD/CHF's bullish momentum could persist. Traders should stay attuned to upcoming economic data and central bank communications, which will provide crucial insights into monetary policy shifts affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate.
by tastyfx
USDCHF BULLISHUSD/CHF is showing bearish momentum, driven by a rejection at a key resistance level, with strong bearish candles and extended wicks signaling dominant selling pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity grab above a prior high triggered buy stops, but the subsequent sharp reversal suggests sellers are taking control. The pair has broken below an intraday ascending trendline, confirming it as resistance upon retest, while bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD indicate weakening bullish momentum. Trading below the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a death cross forming, reinforces the bearish bias. Additionally, increased volume on downward moves compared to lighter retracements highlights strong selling interest, supporting the potential for continued downside movement. + testing all KL, be careful
Short
by edl75
#USDCHF 4HUSDCHF 4-Hour Analysis The USDCHF pair has broken above a significant trendline on the 4-hour chart, signaling a shift in momentum to the upside. Additionally, a buy engulfing candlestick in the breakout area reinforces the bullish outlook, presenting a potential buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Trendline Breakout and Buy Engulfing Area Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position above the breakout level, confirming with bullish price action signals. Traders should monitor for continued bullish momentum with supportive indicators like RSI or MACD trending upward. Proper risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed below the breakout level and profit targets set at higher resistance zones.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
USDCHF USDCHF - Bullish Above 0.88000 Current Price: 0.88365 Action: Bullish above 0.88000 Target Levels: 0.8976 0.9093 0.9178 Reason: Price Action: USDCHF has been showing bullish momentum, holding above key support at 0.88000. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently in the bullish zone (above 50), indicating upward momentum. MACD: The MACD is above the signal line and showing increasing positive momentum. Trend Confirmation: The pair is in an overall uptrend, as confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. Support at 0.88000 The level at 0.88000 is a key support, and a breakout above this level opens the path for the mentioned targets. Note: Always use proper risk management.
Long
by Al-Reshad
ANOTHER UPDATE ON USD/CHF TRADEUSD/CHF 1H - This is just a quick update on the trade that was sent out last Friday to you all here on this pair, as you can see price is starting to pick up and its continuing to trade us higher. Those of you who are still in on this pair well done, ensure you are taking partials, applying safety measures and looking for re-entries. If you closed Friday like I did, you should be looking for areas to re-enter. This trade is currently running + 102 pips. (+7%) 7RR There are plenty of areas you could be looking to get re-introduced into this market, I would be looking for any areas in or around the last impulsive wave that traded price higher. Price will need to pullback to pick up more demand in order to encourage price to trade higher, so waiting for price to trade down and into a valid area of interest is so important. Any questions drop me a message or comment below!
Long
by Lukegforex
USDCHF Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for USDCHF is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.8781 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 0.8849 My Stop Loss - 0.8746 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Market Analysis: USD/CHF Builds MomentumMarket Analysis: USD/CHF Builds Momentum USD/CHF is rising and might aim for a move toward the 0.8880 resistance. Important Takeaways for USD/CHF Analysis Today - USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.8800 resistance zone. - There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.8785 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/CHF Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from the 0.8730 support. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.8765 resistance zone against the Swiss Franc. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.8785. The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8800. There was a clear move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8879 swing high to the 0.8731 low. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 0.8845 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8879 swing high to the 0.8731 low. The main resistance is now near 0.8880. If there is a clear break above the 0.8880 resistance zone and the RSI remains above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.8920. If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 0.8800 level. The first major support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 0.8765 level. The next key support is near the 0.8730 level. A downside break below 0.8730 might spark bearish moves. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward the 0.8700 level in the near term. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen