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U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc

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USDCHF trade ideas

Next weeks ideaUSD/CHF trades sideways around 0.8820 even though the US Dollar trades strongly. Fed Williams believes that the current moderate restrictive policy stance is appropriate. The SNB cut its interest rates by 25 bps to 0.25% on Thursday. The USD/CHF pair flattens around 0.8820 during North American trading hours on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair trades sideways even though the US Dollar (USD) exhibits strength amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut its key borrowing rates in the near term.
by EZIO-FX
CHF/USD Trading Setup – Triple Bottom Reversal & Breakout Setup🔍 Overview of the Chart Setup The CHF/USD (Swiss Franc vs. U.S. Dollar) 1-hour timeframe chart reveals a classic Triple Bottom pattern, which is a well-known bullish reversal signal. This pattern indicates that sellers have attempted to break the support level three times but failed, suggesting a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Traders closely watch this structure as it often leads to a strong upward breakout once key resistance levels are breached. The current setup provides an excellent risk-to-reward trading opportunity, especially for those looking to capitalize on the breakout. 📊 Key Levels in the CHF/USD Chart 1️⃣ Support and Resistance Zones 🟢 Support Level (~1.1300 - 1.1280 Zone) This zone has been tested three times, confirming strong buying interest at this price level. The formation of long wicks on candlesticks signals strong demand and buyer dominance. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the bullish setup and may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. 🔴 Resistance Level (~1.1415 - 1.1430 Zone) This level acts as a price ceiling, where previous bullish attempts were rejected. A break and retest above this zone would confirm the Triple Bottom breakout. 🎯 Target Level (~1.1457 Zone) The projected target is based on the height of the pattern, which is measured and added to the breakout point. This level aligns with previous price action zones and acts as a natural take-profit area for traders. 🚨 Stop-Loss Level (~1.1243 Zone) A stop-loss is placed below the support zone to protect against false breakouts or an invalidation of the pattern. 📉 Understanding the Triple Bottom Pattern The Triple Bottom is a strong bullish reversal formation that occurs at the end of a downtrend. It signals that sellers are exhausted, and buyers are gradually taking control. 🔹 Breakdown of the Triple Bottom Formation ✅ Bottom 1 (First Low) The first bottom forms when the price hits the support level and bounces back. Sellers are still active, so price declines again to test the same support zone. ✅ Bottom 2 (Second Low - Confirmation of Support) The second test of the support zone validates the demand area. Buyers step in again, pushing the price upward. The market still lacks enough momentum for a breakout, leading to a third retest. ✅ Bottom 3 (Final Low and Strong Rejection) The third bottom is crucial because it signals the last test of support before a breakout. The failure to break lower creates a higher probability of an upside move. 📌 Breakout Confirmation & Price Action Signals 🔵 The breakout is confirmed when: The price closes above the resistance zone (1.1415 - 1.1430) with strong momentum. Volume spikes during the breakout, indicating institutional buying interest. A successful retest of the resistance zone as new support further validates the trend reversal. If the breakout lacks volume or gets rejected, traders should be cautious of a fakeout or potential retracement. 📈 Trading Strategy & Execution Plan 🔹 Conservative Entry (Safe Approach) Enter after a confirmed breakout above 1.1415, ensuring a strong candle close above resistance. Look for a retest of the breakout level before entering the trade. 🔹 Aggressive Entry (Early Positioning) Enter near the third bottom (~1.1300 - 1.1320) with a tight stop-loss. Higher risk but better reward if the price moves upward without retesting. 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement Conservative traders: Place the stop-loss below the support zone (~1.1243). Aggressive traders: Place a tight stop below the recent swing low for better risk management. 📌 Profit Target Projection Take Profit Target: 1.1457, based on the height of the pattern. 📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio Risk: ~60 pips (from entry to stop-loss). Reward: ~150 pips (from entry to target). Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3, making it a high-probability trade. 📡 Additional Confirmation Indicators for Stronger Trade Setup 📊 1. Volume Analysis A spike in volume at the breakout level suggests strong buyer interest. Low volume on the breakout may indicate a potential fakeout. 📈 2. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Confirmation RSI should be above 50 and trending upward to confirm bullish momentum. If RSI is overbought (>70), watch for a pullback before entering the trade. 📉 3. Moving Averages Support If the 50-period or 200-period moving average supports the breakout level, it adds extra confirmation. A moving average crossover may further validate the trend reversal. 🔍 4. Beware of Fake Breakouts If the price briefly moves above resistance but fails to hold, it may be a bull trap. Always wait for a candle close above resistance and a potential retest before confirming the entry. 🛠️ Alternative Scenarios & Market Risks 🔺 Bullish Scenario (Breakout & Rally to Target) Price breaks above 1.1415, confirming a trend reversal. A retest of resistance as support gives additional buying confidence. Price reaches 1.1457 target before facing new resistance. 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Fakeout & Breakdown Below Support) Price fails to hold above resistance and falls back below support. A breakdown below 1.1243 invalidates the pattern, triggering a bearish continuation. Traders should cut losses quickly if the setup is invalidated. ⚠️ Fundamental Risks to Watch U.S. Dollar news events (FOMC, NFP, CPI reports) can increase volatility. Swiss economic data may impact CHF strength. Unexpected geopolitical events can influence currency movements. 🔎 Summary of the Trading Plan 📌 Trading Strategy Checklist ✅ Pattern: Triple Bottom (Bullish Reversal). ✅ Entry Strategy: Buy after breakout confirmation above 1.1415. ✅ Take Profit Target: 1.1457. ✅ Stop-Loss Level: Below 1.1243. ✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3 (High-Profit Potential with Proper Risk Management). 💡 Final Thought: This setup provides a high-probability bullish trade with strong technical confluence. However, always remain cautious of market news, economic reports, and sudden volatility that could influence price action. 🚀 Patience & discipline are key—wait for confirmation before entering! 📊
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
USDCHF Wave Analysis – 21 March 2025 - USDCHF reversed from support level 0,8750 - Likely to fall to support level 208.00 USDCHF currency pair recently reversed from the pivotal support level 0,8750 (former strong support from December and the start of March) standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from September. The upward reversal from the support level 0,8750 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star. USDCHF can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8850 (top of the previous minor correction ii).
Long
by FxProGlobal
CHF/USD Bullish Cup Formation | Support & Breakout Target Pattern Formation: Bullish Cup & Handle Breakout Setup The price action on this CHF/USD 1-hour chart exhibits a Cup & Handle pattern, which is a well-known bullish continuation setup. This pattern suggests that buyers are gradually gaining control and a breakout could be imminent. 1️⃣ Understanding the Cup Formation The cup shape (curved blue line) signifies a gradual accumulation phase, where price initially declined, formed a rounded bottom, and then started recovering. This indicates that buyers are regaining momentum after a consolidation period. The lowest point of the cup formed around March 16, from where the price began a steady upward move. 2️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Levels Support Level: The strong demand zone is established around 1.1300 - 1.1320, as shown by multiple price bounces. Resistance Level & ATH (All-Time High): The price struggled to break 1.1450 - 1.1470, indicating a major resistance zone where sellers previously took control. 3️⃣ Handle Formation & Pullback After reaching resistance, the price formed a slight retracement (small descending wedge), which created the handle of the pattern. The pullback was necessary to clear short-term overbought conditions before a potential breakout attempt. 4️⃣ Trading Strategy & Price Projection 🔹 Entry & Breakout Confirmation If CHF/USD breaks above 1.1450 - 1.1470 with volume confirmation, this will validate the Cup & Handle breakout. A confirmed breakout suggests further upside momentum toward 1.1570 - 1.1600, aligning with the pattern’s measured move. 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement A logical stop-loss should be placed below the handle’s low (~1.1300 - 1.1320), in case of a false breakout or sudden market reversal. 🔹 Target Projection Based on Pattern Measurement The height of the cup (~200 pips from bottom to resistance) is projected upwards from the breakout level. This results in a take-profit target of 1.1575 - 1.1600. 5️⃣ Additional Technical Confluences ✅ Trendline Support: The price is respecting an ascending trendline, indicating continued higher lows and bullish sentiment. ✅ Bullish Momentum: The series of higher lows confirms a strong uptrend, favoring buyers. ✅ Potential Fakeout Risks: A failed breakout below 1.1300 could invalidate the bullish outlook, leading to a deeper retracement. 6️⃣ Final Thoughts: Is This a Good Setup? 📌 Overall Bias: Bullish ✅ 📌 Breakout Confirmation Needed: Above 1.1450 - 1.1470 📌 Target: 1.1570 - 1.1600 🎯 📌 Risk Management: Stop-loss below 1.1300 If CHF/USD sustains momentum above resistance, traders can anticipate a strong bullish rally toward the projected target. However, it’s essential to wait for confirmation before entering long positions. 📈🔥
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Week 12 USDCHF analysis 20-03-2025The resistance of this pair is at 0.92 and dealers tapped out three times, and support is at 0.84. Notice the whole numbers: 0.92000 and 0.84000. Market taps into the psychological of buyers and sellers alike. Since price touched the resistance or supply area of 0.92 about three times, we should naturally be looking to sell the pair. Where should we look to sell? Below the low of the week, 0.87500. Sell entry 0.87500 Stop loss 0.88000 First take profit 0.86250 Second take profit 0.85000 Third take profit 0.84000 Disclaimer: This is not a trading advice. Educational purposes only. Please let me know what you think. If you agree, boost the post for others to see. If you disagree, please leave a comment below.
Short
by topekekere
(USD/CHF) - Is SNB Rate Cut Bullish or Bearish?🔔🔔🔔 USD/CHF news: 👉Switzerland’s inflation outlook remains highly uncertain, with downside risks being the primary concern. Inflation in Switzerland has evolved in line with expectations and continues to be driven mainly by domestic services. 👉The situation will be closely monitored, and policy adjustments will be made if necessary. Assessing the impact of current tariffs and trade policies remains challenging. 👉Europe’s financial stimulus package is expected to benefit the Swiss economy. With this measure, monetary conditions are now appropriate, and there are no comments on the value of the Swiss franc. 👉Economic uncertainty remains high, both in positive and negative directions. This rate cut is designed to proactively address deflationary pressures. Personal opinion: 👉Based on the interest rate policies of both central banks, in the short term, CHF is weaker than USD in many aspects, so USD/CHF may increase during this period. 👉Technically, RSI (1H) is entering the extreme overbought zone (near 80), so there will be a slight decline to adjust for the next increase. Consider strong support zones to get the best price 👉Analyze based on resistance - support levels combined with EMA and RSI to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/CHF 0.8810- 0.8800 ❌SL: 0.8775 | ✅TP: 0.8850 – 0.8890 – 0.8930 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
CHF/USD Bearish Reversal: Trendline Break Strong Sell-Off!his CHF/USD (Swiss Franc/U.S. Dollar) 1-hour chart showcases a bearish trading setup, signaling a potential downside move after a failed breakout at a key resistance level. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the chart, highlighting key technical elements, potential trade setups, and risk management considerations. 1. Identified Chart Pattern – Cup & Handle (Failed Breakout) The chart initially formed a Cup and Handle pattern, a bullish continuation setup where: The rounded bottom (cup) indicated accumulation and a gradual shift in trend from bearish to bullish. The handle consolidation represented a minor pullback before a potential breakout. However, the pattern failed to hold its bullish momentum. Instead of continuing higher, the price was rejected at the resistance level (ATH – All-Time High), signaling a shift in sentiment. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance Level + ATH (All-Time High) The price reached a significant resistance zone (marked in blue), aligning with an all-time high (ATH) level. Multiple rejections at this level indicate strong selling pressure, making it a potential distribution area where smart money is offloading positions. Support Level + Reversal Zone After rejection from the resistance, the price retraced to a critical support zone, previously acting as a demand area (buyers stepping in). A break below this level confirms bearish momentum, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement. Trendline Break – Bearish Confirmation The trendline (marked in black) represents the primary uptrend support that guided price movement. The break below this trendline signals a loss of bullish strength, increasing the probability of a trend reversal rather than a continuation. 3. Projected Price Movement – Bearish Scenario Given the trendline break and rejection from resistance, the chart suggests a bearish wave with the following expectations: A retest of the broken trendline and support zone before continuing downward. Lower highs and lower lows formation – confirming a new downtrend. A potential drop towards key downside targets (marked as TP1, TP2, and the final target). Take Profit (TP) Targets: ✅ TP1 (1.1128): A minor support level where price may find temporary buying interest. ✅ TP2 (1.1111): A more significant support area that previously acted as demand. ✅ Final Target (1.1035): The ultimate downside objective, aligning with a major support zone and historical price action levels. Stop-Loss Placement (SL): 📍 Above the broken trendline OR the recent swing high, ensuring protection against false breakouts or retracements. 4. Trade Execution & Risk Management Entry Strategy (For Short Positions) 🔹 Aggressive Entry: Enter short immediately after the support zone break. 🔹 Conservative Entry: Wait for a retest of the support-turned-resistance area for confirmation before shorting. Risk-Reward Ratio Consideration: A properly placed stop-loss above resistance ensures a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Ideal ratio: 1:2 or better, meaning potential reward should be at least twice the risk. 5. Market Sentiment & Possible Alternative Scenario While the primary outlook is bearish, traders must remain flexible and monitor price action closely: If price reclaims the support zone and breaks above resistance, it invalidates the bearish setup, shifting momentum back to bullish. A sustained close above the trendline could trap early sellers, leading to a short squeeze rally back toward resistance. 6. Final Thoughts 🔹 Bearish Bias: This setup favors downside movement due to trendline break, resistance rejection, and market structure shift. 🔹 Key Levels to Watch: Support zone retest, trendline confirmation, and target levels. 🔹 Risk Management is Essential: Using stop-loss protection and proper trade sizing to mitigate potential losses. Conclusion: High-Probability Bearish Setup 🚀 The CHF/USD pair has shifted to a bearish structure after failing to break its ATH resistance. The breakdown of the trendline and key support level suggests a strong sell-off towards the 1.1035 target. Traders should look for short opportunities on pullbacks while managing risk effectively. Would you like me to refine or simplify any part of this analysis for your TradingView post? 📉🔥
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USDCHF Musical Chair Music Begins! 1613SGT 20032025Yesterday or so, I posted about selling USDCHF but it is risky, and indeed risky it was because the opportunity has been utilised already. We would need to wait for the music to stop and start again before we walk around the chairs, and now, the music has stopped and started, again. Price came back to the 200SMA, to stop the music, and now we have a trend again signalling that the music has begun. Price has made the first significant setup as seen on the chart. I will only be eyeballing because I am testing out my theory. I think I need to see my previous entries in the moving average series, to see what I done right and what I done wrong. Done right = I profited Done wrong = I loss It's not perfect but I think I know what to look out for. Look out for when price is retracing, and I entered that i profited. And look out for when price was in its impulse move and I entered and loss. 1616SGT 20032025
by goh8888lester
USDCHF INTRADAY oversold bounce backThe USD/CHF price action exhibits bearish sentiment, supported by the prevailing downtrend. The current intraday swing high at 0.8860 serves as a critical trading level, as the pair shows potential for an oversold rally before facing bearish rejection. Key Levels to Watch: Key Resistance: 0.8860 (current intraday swing high) Immediate Support: 0.8760 Lower Support Levels: 0.8720, 0.8680 Upside Resistance Levels: 0.8890, 0.8930 Bearish Scenario: An oversold rally toward the 0.8860 level, followed by a bearish rejection, could validate the downtrend and target the immediate support at 0.8760. Continued bearish momentum could extend the decline to 0.8720 and ultimately 0.8680 over the longer timeframe. Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above the 0.8860 resistance level, accompanied by a daily close above this mark, would negate the bearish outlook. This scenario could trigger further rallies toward the next resistance levels at 0.8890 and 0.8930. Conclusion: The prevailing sentiment remains bearish amid the ongoing downtrend. Traders should closely monitor the 0.8860 level for potential bearish rejections or a bullish breakout. A sustained close above this resistance could signal a shift toward bullish momentum, while failure to break above would reinforce the bearish outlook. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
CHF/USD Trading Idea – Bearish Reversal from Key ResistanceThis CHF/USD chart presents a compelling bearish setup, suggesting that the pair may be headed for a decline after facing strong resistance. The price action has followed a technical breakout and retest pattern, with a clear rejection from a well-defined resistance level. Traders looking for short-selling opportunities should take note of the key price zones, support levels, and overall market structure before making a move. Let’s break it down in detail. 🔍 Chart Breakdown: What’s Happening? 1️⃣ Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish Push The price was consolidating inside a falling wedge, a pattern that typically signals an eventual breakout to the upside. The breakout led to a strong bullish move, pushing the price toward a well-established resistance zone around 1.1414. After breaking out, the pair made a significant upward run before stalling at this key resistance. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Level Holding Strong The price touched the resistance zone but failed to break above it. This rejection indicates that sellers are stepping in, absorbing the buying pressure. The market is showing early signs of bearish momentum, hinting at a potential downtrend. 3️⃣ Projected Bearish Move: Lower Targets in Sight If the current rejection holds, the price is likely to fall toward the nearest support levels: ✅ TP 1 (Take Profit 1): 1.1271 → First major support level, likely to be tested soon. ✅ TP 2 (Take Profit 2): 1.1201 → A deeper retracement if selling pressure increases. ✅ TP 3 (Take Profit 3): 1.1055 → Final downside target if the bearish trend extends further. 4️⃣ Stop Loss Placement – Risk Management To manage risk, the ideal stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level at 1.1414. This protects against potential false breakouts and unexpected market shifts. 📉 Trade Strategy – How to Approach This Setup? 🔸 Entry Point: Look for a confirmed rejection of the resistance level (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns like engulfing, shooting star, or pin bars). 🔸 Stop Loss: Place above 1.1414 to avoid getting caught in a short squeeze. 🔸 Take Profit Targets: First TP at 1.1271 Second TP at 1.1201 Final TP at 1.1055 for extended downside moves ⚠️ Important Notes for Traders: ✔ Wait for Confirmation: Don’t rush into a short trade. Look for a strong bearish candle closure or a retest before entering. ✔ Be Aware of News Events: Economic releases, interest rate decisions, and major USD-related news can impact price movement. ✔ Monitor Market Sentiment: If USD strengthens, this setup is even more likely to play out. 🧐 Final Thoughts – High Probability Short Setup? ✅ Why This Trade Looks Strong: The technical pattern is playing out perfectly, with a clear resistance rejection. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels. The overall market structure supports a potential downside move if price continues respecting resistance. 📢 Bottom Line : If price remains below the 1.1414 resistance, this trade setup could provide an excellent opportunity for short-sellers targeting lower support levels. 🚀 Stay patient and wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger!
Short
by GoldMasterTrades