USDCHF Looks Yammy! Prior CPIA quick outlook on USDCHF to determine the direction prior CPI news. Which prints quite nice.. looks BEARISH TO ME. Hence, I will be looking for my short entries along my context area.
USDCHF trade ideas
UPDATE ON USD/CHF TRADEUSD/CHF 15M - As you can see price has recently traded down to set a higher low in this market round our entry point which is great as this low will soon be seen as protected, this is once the high it creates breaks the previous high.
I am confident with this trade to leave it running overnight, as I say once we break the last high set we should see that low set be protected and if price is to follow the laws of bullishness we shouldn't see price break the low set there, meaning our entry is safe.
This trade is currently running + 34 pips. (+ 2%) 2RR
A big well done to everyone who jumped in on this trade, please make sure you are taking partials and applying safety measures with the positions you are placing.
If you have any questions with regards to the analysis we have performed today or the trade itself then please drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you asap!
AUDCAD Trade ideaThis explains the thought process on why I stayed out of taking a loss on everal lessons to be learnt innit
USDCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF 0.88500 zone, USDCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.88500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCHF Ready for Long position USDCHF is currently in accumulation phase buyers are locking in their buying positions but they are still in accumulation phase while dumping their positions so they can buy at great zones, but lets just watch it closely
Bullish idea USD 25% increase tariff I am bullish on USD for the week.. the pink box above is the daily ifvg which is the overall target ( magnet) but not to be so greedy i have a short term target and as the day go by i will look to scale in my position. Tradingview wont let me go below 15min but if u scale down will find an Ob on the 5min + the bullish data on the news release supports my bias and buying view on USD
USDCHF.. MINE TARGET BUY>>The proposed USDCHF trade idea presents a logical technical setup, but several factors should be considered before confirmation:
### *Technical Rationale*
1. *Bollinger Bands*: The bounce from the lower band suggests potential oversold conditions, but confirmation above 0.8820 (likely a key resistance-turned-support) is critical to validate bullish momentum.
2. *Stochastic Oscillator*: Exiting oversold signals weakening downward momentum, though this alone isnโt sufficientโwatch for a bullish crossover (e.g., %K > %D).
3. *Support Level*: The "critical support" likely aligns with recent swing lows or a psychological level. A strong bounce here adds credibility.
### *Key Considerations*
- *Trend Context*:
- If USDCHF is in a broader downtrend (e.g., driven by CHF strength or USD weakness), this bounce may be a short-lived retracement.
- A break above 0.8820 could signal a near-term reversal, especially if paired with rising volume and bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing bars).
- *Confluence*:
- Look for alignment with RSI (>50), MACD histogram turning positive, or momentum divergences.
- Monitor risk sentimentโCHF often strengthens during market turmoil, which could cap gains.
### *Risk Management*
- *Entry/Stop*:
- A conservative stop loss (e.g., below 0.8880) limits risk to ~300 pips.
- Ensure a risk-reward ratio โฅ 1:2 (targets at 800/1300 pips).
- *Confirmation*:
- Wait for a close above 0.8820 with strong bullish follow-through to avoid false breaks.
### *Conclusion*
The setup is plausible *if*:
- Price consolidates above 0.8820 with bullish confirmation signals.
- The broader market context (e.g., USD momentum, risk sentiment) supports upside.
*Verdict*: Cautiously agree, but traders should wait for clear confirmation and manage risk tightly. ๐ with disciplined execution.
USDCHF to find sellers at market price?USDCHF - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
20 4hour EMA is at 0.8816.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.8800.
Our outlook is bearish.
The weaker US dollar has boosted performance.
We look to Sell at 0.8803 (stop at 0.8843)
Our profit targets will be 0.8703 and 0.8683
Resistance: 0.8811 / 0.8830 / 0.8845
Support: 0.8765 / 0.8740 / 0.8720
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (โOAPโ) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
USD/CHF BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USD/CHF with the target of 0.895 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โ
LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEASโ
UPDATE ON USD/CHF TRADEUSD/CHF 15M - As you can see price is playing out well up to now, we are seeing that price is respecting these areas of Demand and price is trading higher from them.
As we are respecting these areas and new highs are being created it further backs our analysis and running trade to take this market long. This trade was placed based on a BOS to the upside and price respecting these areas.
This trade is running + 35 pips. (+ 2%) 2RR
It is important that you are all managing your trades correctly and you are taking partials throughout your position. You could also look to apply further safety measures.
A big well done to anyone who got involved in this position, if you have any questions with regards to the analysis or the trade itself then drop me a message or comment below!
USDCHF Long H4 UpdateRemember, successful trading relies on proper risk management and a disciplined approach. Use stop-losses to safeguard your assets and carefully plan each trade. Analysis is the key to making informed decisions. Stay updated and continue refining your strategies!
UsdchfAs we can see usdchf is on an uptrend on a 4hrs and 1 week so we are expecting more bullish from this trade
Trends There's clearly a down trend with defined highs and lows so two things are to be expected change of character or creation of a new low
USD/CHF Trading Trend Today - Is the Downtrend Continuing?๐๐๐ USD/CHF news:
๐The February labor market report in the US closely matched expectations, with job growth reaching 151K (forecast: +160K, previous: +143K). Despite the recent layoff of 30,000 public sector workers and a decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies set for this summer, employment gains remain solid. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January. Overall, the report did not indicate immediate risks of recession or economic overheating, although other indicators have recently suggested a gradual softening of the US economy.
๐On the geopolitical front, Trump has proposed the possibility of imposing significant new US sanctions and tariffs on Russia to push for peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. Meanwhile, US and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Saudi Arabia this week, with hopes that these discussions will yield better results than President Zelenskyy's recent visit to the White House, which led to the US halting military aid and intelligence support for Kyiv.
Personal opinion:
๐In the long term, President Trump's tariff policy still poses many risks and has a negative impact on the USD
๐Technically, the RSI indicator in most frames has entered the oversold zone and is showing signs of convergence. This signals a short-term upward correction for this currency pair
๐At the same time, DXY is also recovering in an upward direction after meeting a strong support level today
Analysis:
๐Based on SMA and important resistance - support levels combined with pivot points standard to come up with a suitable strategy
๐ Price Zone Setup:
๐Sell USD/CHF 0.8860 - 0.8870
โSL: 0.8905 | โ
TP: 0.8820 - 0.8780 - 0.8740 - 0.8700
FM wishes you a successful trading day ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ
USD/CHF Short Trade Setup๐ Bearish Outlook on USD/CHF โ Here's Why I'm Going Short! ๐
๐ Fundamental Analysis:
Swiss Franc's Safe-Haven Appeal:
Despite recent rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Swiss franc continues to attract investors seeking stability amid global uncertainties. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized that the franc is likely to remain a safe-haven currency. โ
marketwatch.com
Reuters
SNB's Monetary Policy:
The SNB's recent 50 basis point rate cut to 0.5% was a proactive measure to address low inflation and prevent excessive franc appreciation. This move indicates the SNB's commitment to maintaining economic stability. โ
US Dollar Dynamics:
The US dollar has been under pressure due to shifting Federal Reserve policies and economic data suggesting a potential slowdown. This environment may lead to further USD depreciation against the CHF.โ
๐ Technical Analysis:
Downtrend Confirmation:
USD/CHF has been on a consistent downtrend, breaking below key support levels. โ
actionforex.com
Bearish Trendline:
A prominent bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 0.8825 on the 4-hour chart, indicating sustained selling pressure. โ
actionforex.com
Moving Averages:
The pair is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
USDCHF BUY NOW!!Nice wyckoff distribution, we can see price now heading higher, structure indicate buying pressure is coming in the market!!!
Nice risk to reward!!! see you later
Decision timeUSDCHF Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Daily Chart Observations:
โ
Trend Still Bearish โ No significant shift in structure.
โ
Price Holding Below Rejection Zone โ No break above yet.
โ
MACD Still Bearish โ No sign of reversal on the daily yet.
4H Chart Observations:
โ
Short-Term Push Up โ Price attempting to re-enter downtrend channel.
โ ๏ธ Will It Break or Reject? โ Price at critical decision point.
โ ๏ธ MACD Starting to Flatten โ Upside momentum slowing down.
1H Chart Observations:
โ ๏ธ Losing Momentum at Resistance โ Struggling to push higher.
โ
Potential Rejection Area โ Confluence with trendline & moving averages.
โ ๏ธ MACD Histogram Shrinking โ Weakening bullish pressure.
โธป
Key Trading Decision: Break or Rejection?
Scenario 1: Price Breaks Above Downtrend Channel โ Look for Buys
โข If 1H closes above trendline with strong volume, the move up may continue.
โข Target 0.88500 - 0.89000 for a short-term retracement.
Scenario 2: Price Rejects and Bounces Down โ Look for Sells
โข If 1H closes with strong rejection wicks, this confirms a fake-out.
โข Look for M5 or M15 bearish confirmation to enter short.
โข Target a move back toward 0.87700 - 0.87500 zone.
USDCHFAB=CD is the reversal pattren complete with Bulish Divergence.
Trade Plan
Buy stop 0.88327
Stop Loss 0.87519
Take Profit 0.89145
RRR 1:1
USD/CHF Short Setup โ Institutional Flow & Liquidity TargetsUSD/CHF is setting up for a bearish move, with confluence from technical structure, order flow, and fundamental events. Hereโs a complete breakdown of the setup, execution plan, and institutional positioning.
๐ Trade Execution & Technical Breakdown
๐น Entry Zone: Price rejected from the 0.8786 - 0.8794 supply zone, aligning with 0.62 - 0.79 Fibonacci retracement levels.
๐น Confluences:
โ
Bearish trend continuation โ Lower highs forming.
โ
Liquidity grab above minor resistance, suggesting smart money distribution.
โ
Break & retest structure confirms potential downside.
๐น Target Zones:
๐ First target: 0.8767 (previous low & liquidity area).
๐ Final target: 0.8750 (-0.62 Fibonacci extension).
๐ Market Structure:
Higher timeframe bearish bias remains intact.
Supertrend (4H) signals continued downside.
EMA alignment (1D) confirms selling pressure.
๐ฆ Institutional Positioning & Market Sentiment
๐ Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights:
๐ USD: Institutional long positions declining, indicating potential USD weakness.
๐ CHF: Increased net short positioning, suggesting institutional flow favoring CHF strength.
๐ Liquidity & Order Flow Data:
Market depth shows heavy short positioning near resistance.
Volume profile indicates a lack of demand above 0.8780, confirming weak bullish momentum.
โก Fundamental Drivers โ Key News Events
๐ Macroeconomic Data Impacting USD/CHF:
๐ Employment Trends Index (108.35) โ USD strength limited.
๐ T-Bill Auction & Treasury Buyback โ Potential liquidity shifts affecting risk sentiment.
๐ Fedโs Beige Book & Policy Outlook โ Key for USD direction.
๐ Impact on Trade:
โ๏ธ USD uncertainty fuels risk-off flows into CHF.
โ๏ธ Short-term retracement provides an ideal short entry before further downside.
๐ Volatility & Liquidity Insights
๐ Prime Market Terminal Data:
ATR shows increased volatility, supporting large price swings.
Institutional short positioning rising, indicating strong bearish control.
DMX data suggests liquidity buildup below 0.8760.
๐ฅ Conclusion โ High-Probability Short Setup
โ
Bearish trend structure aligns with institutional positioning.
โ
Liquidity grab above resistance confirms distribution phase.
โ
Confluence of technicals, fundamentals, and order flow supports downside movement.
๐ Short Bias: Targeting 0.8767 โ 0.8750.
๐ Key Invalidations: A break above 0.8800 could shift sentiment.
๐ฌ Whatโs your take on USD/CHF? Let me know in the comments! ๐๐
USDCHF Key Trading Level to watch at 0.8865The USD/CHF currency pair is currently exhibiting a bearish sentiment, as evidenced by the loss of the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The key trading level to watch is 0.8865, which represents the current intraday swing low and the falling resistance trendline level.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to break above the 0.8865 level and faces a bearish rejection, it could trigger a downside move targeting the support levels at:
0.8735 - Initial downside support
0.8700 - Secondary support level
0.8600 - Longer-term support
Bullish Scenario:
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 0.8865 resistance level, followed by a daily close above that point, would negate the bearish outlook. This scenario could open the path for further rallies, targeting:
0.8918 - Immediate resistance level
0.8965 - Next potential resistance level
Conclusion:
Traders should closely monitor the 0.8865 level for directional clues. A rejection from this level would favor short positions targeting lower support zones, while a breakout and daily close above would support long positions aiming for higher resistance levels. Proper risk management and trend confirmation are crucial for successful trading in this volatile environment.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
super R:R Bullish Thesis for USD/CHFSNB reduced its policy rate by 50 BIPS
As US introduced new tariffs on multiple countries
BOA adviced US CORPs to increase their Hedges
which all Translates to a Bullish outlook for USDCHF.
simple ADR calculations for the last 5 yrs deduces to the TP i marked.
if you read down this far ,
i am trying to make a signal service
please let me know if i should elaborate like a blog story or keep the analysis short and straight to the point like this.
feel free to reach out.
