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US Dollar vs China Offshore Spot

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USDCNH trade ideas

Dollar-yuan’s momentum decreases after better Chinese dataMuch stronger GDP and exports from China gave some support to the offshore yuan in the last few days but not enough to realise a notable recovery. There remains some concern over the job market in China while traders are also widely anticipating negativity from new American tariffs in the next few months. USDCNH hasn’t made a clear new high in 2025 and remains close to the 18-year high around ¥7.37, so traders should be aware that a false breakout is quite likely in this situation. There’s no longer an overbought signal from the slow stochastic but at around 70 this remains close to the zone of buying saturation. Both the 20 and 50 SMAs are important dynamic areas of support, having supported the uptrend in the fourth quarter of 2024. Static supports might occur around ¥7.30 and ¥7.19. How the price moves in the next few days depends mainly on the potential for escalation of economic disputes between the USA and China. Traders will also monitor the statement from the People’s Bank of China on 20 January for more context on its outlook for the economy. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
WHATS FLOWING: USDCNH (KEY LEVEL)The USDCNH chart reveals a potential trend continuation as the pair approaches key resistance levels. The upward momentum is supported by steady higher lows, and the recent price action appears to be aligning with Fibonacci retracement zones, suggesting areas of possible reversal or breakout. The overall structure indicates that traders might keep a close watch for a breakout above resistance or a pullback to support levels, which could present trading opportunities. The bottom indicator reflects a strengthening trend correlation. Let’s monitor this flow for further confirmation in the coming sessions! Trading leverage is a powerful tool that amplifies your exposure to financial markets by allowing you to control a larger position than your initial capital. Essentially, leverage is a loan provided by your broker that enables you to maximize potential profits without tying up substantial amounts of capital. However, it also magnifies losses, making effective risk management crucial.
Long
by moneymagnateash
USD/CNH Near Key Resistance: 2025 OutlookUSD/CNH Near Key Resistance: 2025 Outlook As shown by today’s USD/CNH chart: → the pair is trading around 7.35 yuan per US dollar; → historically, this level has acted as resistance, pushing the exchange rate lower in autumn 2022 and autumn 2023, as bulls briefly broke above but failed to sustain gains. The current approach to this resistance level is partly driven by expectations of US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, which in 2025 may include imposing trade tariffs and adopting measures likely to strengthen the USD further. According to Reuters: → China holds approximately $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, giving it ample power to defend the yuan; → Wang Tao, Chief Economist at UBS for China, expects the USD/CNH rate to remain controlled near 7.4 yuan per dollar during the first half of 2025. However, if high tariffs are introduced by Trump’s administration, the yuan could weaken to 7.6 per dollar by the end of 2025. Technical analysis of the USD/CNH chart reveals: → price fluctuations are forming a large contracting triangle, with higher lows in 2023 and 2024 indicating stronger demand; → an upward trend structure, highlighted in blue, emerged in late 2024; → a grey arrow points to the trend direction calculated using linear regression. Thus, in early 2025, another attempt at a bullish breakout above 7.35 may occur, though resistance from bears could cause short-term pullbacks towards the lower blue trend line. Given Wang’s bullish outlook and supporting technical signals, it is reasonable to expect bulls to gain control of the 7.35 level during 2025. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
The next few months will be crucial for USDCNHCurrencies play a pivotal role in the trading game, as in importers from China. They buy goods from US and pay in USD , therefore if the CNH is depreciating 2013, that means their costs will get higher. In 2013, 6 yuan equal to 1 USD , fast forward 11 years later, it is now 7.3 yuan to 1 USD. That is almost 11.8% depreciation on a YOY basis for the last 11 years. Someone has to bear the costs and it is naturally the final ends of the straw, from wholesalers to retailers to final consumers....... Some supporting article :https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/economy/china-s-exports-slow-imports-decline-in-november/ar-AA1vHpLN Will I trade this pair? Very unlikely as there were no historical data to show it will breaks above the current 7.3 price level. If it does and as predicted by analysts that it will goes to 8, then the risk reward ratio is very good. Please DYODD
by dchua1969
USDCNY | Market outlook The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan. Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period. Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
usdcnh sidewayusdcnh 28 October 2024 Usdcnh chart Technical Price action time frame : 15 m Technical approach : (resistance & support _ momentum ) _ FAKE BREAKOUT from 7.1450 - Reaction to dynamic trendline and break weak resistance (7.1450) - support (7.1250) midline. sell target is (7.1250) buy target is (7.1600). My idea is downtrend yet. support area midline (7.1250) and strong bullish to target (7.1600) Is in sideway yet. SUPPORT prices : 7.1250 & 7.1100 RESISTANCE prices : 7.1600
Long
by sadrabasi71
Dollar-yuan might continue up but probably not immediatelyBeyond recent changes in monetary policy, the yuan has received some support from news that major Chinese banks have been actively selling dollars to try to support the currency. The market is waiting for further details on the fiscal stimulus announced last month. The 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥7.11 seems likely to hold as a short-term support in the next few days unless significant news reaches markets or there’s further clear strengthening by yields from American bonds. The bounce from below ¥7 at the end of last month was quite vigorous and supported by volume; this would usually suggest the possibility of an ongoing uptrend. The golden cross of the 20 SMA above the 50 from Bands came with a fairly high angle. Now that there’s some evidence of buying saturation, though, further immediate gains seem less clear. It’s still a fair way to go to reach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100 and 200 SMAs are likely to be dynamic resistances to some extent before that. Consolidation seems to be possible ahead of American GDP on 30 October, but beyond that ongoing gains seem possible if the data support them. This is my personal opinion which does not reflect the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
A Long Trade I am in from a couple of Hours Ago. USD CNH This trade has only just poked through the bearish Icimocku cloud which would be a sort of breakout trade if you want to take it. A lot of traders buying the USD today. Maybe a sign of the times ahead when a flight to safety may still be the good ol' USD Greenback. I am Long in several USD currency trades for 2 reasons. For example, USD CNH huge rr trade potentially and its a flight to safety if the stock market gets rough I am already parked there with a lot of my cash
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Yuan is getting stronger by the weeks........I posted my prediction about shorting the USDCNH pair sometimes in November last year....... Please read it here This is an update of that post...... After breaking down the important 7 dollars price point, if the sell down continues which I believe it will, then the next 2 support level is 6.71 and 6.83. How long will it takes ? I don't know but for those who had followed me to short this pair, you may want to take partial profits and adjust your SL accordingly....... Congratulations ! Please DYODD
Short
by dchua1969
USDCNH looks further downAlthough dollar-yuan has been in a fairly clear downtrend since last month, it has gained pace in the last few days as the probability of another double cut by the Fed in November has increased slightly and the Chinese government is expected to announce further stimulus. For the time being, the price seems to have broken ¥7 firmly and momentum remains high. How much lower it might continue depends on seasonality next week but also on saturation given that there’s a strong oversold signal from both Bollinger Bands and the slow stochastic. The 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥6.955 seems to be an obvious potential support; this was also an important area in December 2022 and February 2023. ¥6.70 might be the ultimate target for many long-term sellers because this was the source of January 2023’s bounce. Whether and when the price might push that low depends initially on markets’ reaction to Chinese manufacturing PMI early on Monday morning as well as next week’s NFP. To the upside, the 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement slightly above ¥7.03 might cap any short-term bounce. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
USDCNH - Technical Analysis [Long Setup]🔹 USDCNH Analysis on 1HR chart - The current Trend is Bearish - Bullish divergence is present - If HH is break we will take long position 🔹 Trade Plan - Entry Level = 7.10808 - Stop Loss = 7.09450 - TP1 = 7.12170 - TP2 = 7.13520 🔹 Risk Management - First TP is 1:1 - Second TP is 1:2 🔹 How to Take Trade? - Only risk 2% of your portfolio - Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR - Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea! ✌🏼
Long
by Bountysoul
2
USDCNH Trade Signal: Sell RecommendationTraders, We have a new signal for the USDCNH pair with the following details: Direction: Sell Enter Price: 7.1161 Take Profit: 7.11033 Stop Loss: 7.12734 Rationale: This recommendation is based on our advanced analysis using the EASY Quantum Ai strategy. Several key factors have influenced our prediction: 1. Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment indicators suggest a bearish trend for the USDCNH pair. 2. Technical Analysis: Technical indicators such as moving averages and RSI (Relative Strength Index) are pointing towards a downward movement. 3. Economic Factors: Recent economic data and announcements related to both the US and Chinese economies have contributed to a weaker outlook for the USD against the CNY. 4. Recent Price Action: Observations in recent price action patterns also indicate potential for downside movement within the defined price range. Please manage your risk accordingly and stick to the defined Stop Loss and Take Profit levels to optimize your trading strategy. Trade safely, EASY Quantum Ai Team
Short
by ForexRobotEasy
Trade Signal for USDCNHDirection: Sell Enter Price: 7.1185 Take Profit: 7.10619333 Stop Loss: 7.13070333 We are issuing a Sell signal for the USDCNH currency pair. This decision is based on several critical factors analyzed by the EASY Quantum Ai strategy. 1. Technical Analysis: Recent chart patterns and indicators suggest a bearish momentum. Price action analysis shows a strong resistance near the 7.13070333 mark, facilitating a potential downturn. 2. Economic Data: Recent economic reports from the US and China indicate a strengthening of the Chinese Yuan. This strengthens the argument for selling USDCNH, as traders anticipate a shift in correcting overvaluation. 3. Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment appears to be risk-averse, which traditionally strengthens safer currencies like the Yuan over the US Dollar. 4. Algorithmic Forecasting: Our proprietary EASY Quantum Ai algorithm has signaled a high probability for a downward correction, aligning with other technical and fundamental factors. Trade setup: - Enter Price: 7.1185 - Take Profit: 7.10619333 ensures an optimized exit point based on expected downward momentum. - Stop Loss: 7.13070333 safeguards against unpredicted volatility. This configuration provides a balanced risk-reward ratio, making it a favorable setup for traders following our EASY Quantum Ai strategy. Happy Trading!
Short
by ForexRobotEasy
1
China loses strength against the US with Trump (USDCNH)Today, Monday, the Asian market started lower against the US dollar following Donald Trump's shooting over the weekend. The Japanese "Ocean Day" holiday celebrated on the third Monday of July, which is very important for the Japanese country, has led to moderate trading volumes without the Japanese market active. The Yen weakened slightly and on the alert of possible interventions by the Bank of Japan governor. Friday's close spurred Asian currencies to advance against the dollar on optimism of interest rate cuts by the Fed, but today the market turned around with weak Chinese GDP data causing the Yuan to lose strength. The Trump assassination attempt has encouraged a return to safe havens causing the Dollar Index to move positive with the current price at 104.087. The chart appears to be partially replicating the movement of the USDCNH, throughout the month, with a correlation very close to 1. As for the USDCNH cross, if we look at the chart the dollar has been gaining strength since the July 1st releases until this Friday. Since the Asian opening the dollar has created a gap down opening giving strength to the renminbi, currently holding at 7.2737 yuan per dollar. The current high zone is around 7.3106 with a low zone of 7.2570. The area through which the price has resisted falling the most is 7.2488, very close to the current checkpoint (POC) of 7.2572. The current RSI is in the mid 50.73% zone so there does not appear to be excessive volatility. If Trump's political move continues to gain strength we will see a dollar that will seemingly continue to gain strength seeing the effect of the political attack. So it would not be unusual to see an escalation of dollar power over the yuan from the US election. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades