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USDCNH trade ideas

USD/CNH Breakout – Strength Following PMI DataWe are witnessing a breakout in USD/CNH, with CNH being significantly impacted by tariff developments. Following the release of USD PMI data, the dollar is showing renewed strength, reinforcing bullish momentum. After a liquidity sweep, USD/CNH has gained traction, and today’s price action has formed a strong engulfing bar, signaling continued upside potential. With this confirmation, the pair is poised for further gains as buyers step in.
Long
by AfaqKhan111
USD/CNH Near Pivotal Support – AUD, NZD Implications LoomUSD/CNH isn’t everyone’s favourite pair to trade, but it should be on your radar if you dabble in AUD/USD or NZD/USD. Its correlation coefficient with AUD/USD ranges from -0.72 to -0.96 across timeframes from five days to six months, while for NZD/USD, it sits between -0.78 and -0.95. That suggests a strong relationship when comparing performance against the U.S. dollar, especially in the very near and longer term. That’s noteworthy given where USD/CNH sits on the charts, teetering just above 7.2345—a level where bearish moves have repeatedly fizzled in recent months. However, with momentum indicators biased lower, another attempt may have more success. A sustained push below 7.2345 could encourage additional bears to join the break, particularly if minor support at 7.2130 gives way. While the 200DMA sits in between, price action has largely ignored it recently, showing far more interaction with the 50-day equivalent. That makes it worth noting but not a major barrier. Below 7.2130, there’s little visible support until 7.1400—a level that capped gains for extended periods last October before the U.S. presidential election. If 7.2345 holds firm, traders may look for a potential retest of recent range highs around 7.3000 and the 50-DMA. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
Elliott Waves SHows That Gold Is Turning South For Corrective ReGold started the year bullish with a strong extended leg to the upside close to 3k, but the move looks impulsive and may have found a temporary top near 2950. The reversal this week is coming from an ending diagonal, with the price now attempting to break the lower trendline support of the bullish channel. This suggests gold could be entering a corrective wave 4, likely unfolding in three waves. For those looking to join the trend, it’s better to wait for a deeper correction and a retest of lower support in this wave  four pullback. Supports are at 2864 and 2789 At the same time, keep an eye on USD/CNH—if it pushes higher now for wave four, to retest its 2022 highs, gold could remain sideways for a while. In such case the new opportunities to rejoin the gold uptrend may come after USD/CNH completes its recovery from the 2024 lows, possibly around 7.40. GH
by ew-forecast
USDCNH Trade Setup - Bearish Target Zones📉 USDCNH Trade Setup - Bearish Target Zones 📉 Price is testing a key level—watching for a move toward 7.248 and potentially 7.240 before the deadline. 🔹 Current Price: 7.256 🔹 Target 1: 7.248 🔹 Target 2: 7.240 🔹 Deadline: Feb 23, 22:00 UTC Will sellers take control and push price lower? Let’s see how it plays out! 🔥 Drop your analysis below! 👇🏼 #USDCNH #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradeSetup #MarketMoves #TradingStrategy
Short
by GlobalHorns
China-US Tariffs: Impact on Forex Hello, I am professional trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about a hot topic that is shaking up global markets: the introduction of new tariffs by China towards the United States and the impact that this news is having on the Forex market. A New Chapter in the US-China Trade War For weeks, the investment world has been monitoring the evolution of tensions between two of the world's largest economies: the United States and China. After months of negotiations, China has decided to implement new tariffs on US products, intensifying the trade war that began a few years ago. The news had an immediate effect on global markets and, as always, Forex is one of the markets most sensitive to these geopolitical developments. Direct Impact on USD Currency Pairs The US dollar (USD) suffered a strong backlash after the announcement. In fact, the tariffs can reduce US exports to China, negatively affecting the US trade balance and fueling uncertainty among investors. The immediate result? A weakening of the dollar against several currencies. The most affected currency pairs were: EUR/USD: The euro gained ground, rising to levels not seen in weeks. Economic uncertainty resulting from tariffs has prompted investors to flee to currencies deemed safer, such as the euro. GBP/USD: The British pound followed a similar trajectory, gaining against the dollar. Although Brexit remains a hot topic, the weakness of the dollar has given the British currency some respite. USD/JPY: The Japanese yen, traditionally considered a safe haven, benefited from the uncertainty, appreciating against the dollar. A flow of capital into Japan was a direct result of the change in risk perception. Effects on the Chinese RMB The Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), has also fluctuated significantly. While China is trying to limit the effect of tariffs on its domestic market, the market response has been cautious. In particular, investors are preparing for a possible controlled devaluation of the renminbi, with the intention of maintaining the competitiveness of Chinese exports, which could suffer from higher tariffs. The Role of Central Banks Another factor that cannot be ignored in this context is the approach of central banks. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) could decide to review its monetary policies to counter the negative effects of tariffs on the dollar. We could see an easing of monetary policy or even a reduction in interest rates, unless the Fed wants to contain the rising inflation caused by tariffs. On the other hand, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) could be forced to take measures to support the Chinese economy. The possibility of a currency intervention could have significant effects not only on Forex, but also on other asset classes such as commodities and stock markets. How to Capitalize on the Situation in Forex Trading The developments surrounding the US-China trade war are a boon for Forex traders, provided they are able to carefully monitor the news and react quickly. Here are some strategies to consider: Breakout Trades: The news of the tariffs has triggered significant movements, and experienced traders can look to enter breakout trades on the most volatile currency pairs. This involves looking to enter long or short positions when a currency pair breaks out of certain support or resistance levels. Risk-Based Strategies: The uncertainties surrounding the trade war can force traders to be more selective in their trades. Careful risk management strategies, such as risk-reward ratios and stop-loss orders, are essential to navigate the turbulent waters. Monitoring Central Bank Statements: Any signals from the Fed or the PBoC are crucial. Traders should be prepared to react quickly to any changes in monetary policies, as they can immediately impact the value of the currencies involved. Final Thoughts China’s decision to impose new tariffs on the United States marks a new phase in the trade war between the two economic powers. In an already volatile Forex market, this move adds further uncertainty, with the USD likely to face a period of weakness while other emerging currencies, such as the renminbi, could suffer mixed effects. Happy trading to all. Andrea Russo
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Trade War Begins? China Strikes Back with TariffsIn what could be the beginning of a trade war, China's retaliatory import taxes on certain U.S. goods are set to take effect on Monday. Beijing has imposed a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, along with a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and pickup trucks. It has also introduced export controls on 25 rare metals critical to electronics and military equipment. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for new reciprocal tariffs but delayed imposing duties on small-value packages from China until a processing system is in place. Ending the exemption for these imports, and subjecting them to the new 10% tariff, could generate $53 billion in federal tax revenue, according to the Tax Foundation. In 2023, U.S. customs processed over 1 billion small packages, up from 134 million in 2015, with about 4 million shipments arriving daily, many via platforms like Shein and Temu.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/CNH Chart Sees Spike in Volatility Due to TariffsUSD/CNH Chart Sees Spike in Volatility Due to Tariffs In response to the Trump administration's 10% tariff on Chinese goods, Beijing vowed to challenge the decision at the World Trade Organization. Moreover, Chinese authorities have: → imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on US coal and liquefied gas, and 10% tariffs on oil and agricultural machinery; → launched an investigation into Google for potential anti-competitive practices. These recent developments have triggered a spike in volatility for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar. As the USD/CNH chart shows today, the ATR indicator is at its highest level since early November, when Trump celebrated his election victory. On 9 January, in our analysis of the USD/CNH exchange rate, we noted: → the importance of the 7.35 level, which had acted as resistance for several months; → according to Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS China, the yuan may weaken to 7.6 per dollar by the end of 2025 if the Trump administration imposes higher tariffs. Today's technical analysis of the USD/CNH chart shows: → the rate is supported by the lower boundary of an expanded ascending channel (shown in blue); → the 7.35 level continues to act as resistance (as indicated by the red arrow). Thus, at the beginning of February 2025, we may witness the formation of a narrowing triangle (shown by the black lines), and a breakout could lead to a significant trend movement. How realistic this assumption is largely depends on how the ongoing tariff conflict between the US and China develops. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Dollar-yuan’s momentum decreases after better Chinese dataMuch stronger GDP and exports from China gave some support to the offshore yuan in the last few days but not enough to realise a notable recovery. There remains some concern over the job market in China while traders are also widely anticipating negativity from new American tariffs in the next few months. USDCNH hasn’t made a clear new high in 2025 and remains close to the 18-year high around ¥7.37, so traders should be aware that a false breakout is quite likely in this situation. There’s no longer an overbought signal from the slow stochastic but at around 70 this remains close to the zone of buying saturation. Both the 20 and 50 SMAs are important dynamic areas of support, having supported the uptrend in the fourth quarter of 2024. Static supports might occur around ¥7.30 and ¥7.19. How the price moves in the next few days depends mainly on the potential for escalation of economic disputes between the USA and China. Traders will also monitor the statement from the People’s Bank of China on 20 January for more context on its outlook for the economy. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
1
WHATS FLOWING: USDCNH (KEY LEVEL)The USDCNH chart reveals a potential trend continuation as the pair approaches key resistance levels. The upward momentum is supported by steady higher lows, and the recent price action appears to be aligning with Fibonacci retracement zones, suggesting areas of possible reversal or breakout. The overall structure indicates that traders might keep a close watch for a breakout above resistance or a pullback to support levels, which could present trading opportunities. The bottom indicator reflects a strengthening trend correlation. Let’s monitor this flow for further confirmation in the coming sessions! Trading leverage is a powerful tool that amplifies your exposure to financial markets by allowing you to control a larger position than your initial capital. Essentially, leverage is a loan provided by your broker that enables you to maximize potential profits without tying up substantial amounts of capital. However, it also magnifies losses, making effective risk management crucial.
Long
by moneymagnateash
USD/CNH Near Key Resistance: 2025 OutlookUSD/CNH Near Key Resistance: 2025 Outlook As shown by today’s USD/CNH chart: → the pair is trading around 7.35 yuan per US dollar; → historically, this level has acted as resistance, pushing the exchange rate lower in autumn 2022 and autumn 2023, as bulls briefly broke above but failed to sustain gains. The current approach to this resistance level is partly driven by expectations of US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, which in 2025 may include imposing trade tariffs and adopting measures likely to strengthen the USD further. According to Reuters: → China holds approximately $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, giving it ample power to defend the yuan; → Wang Tao, Chief Economist at UBS for China, expects the USD/CNH rate to remain controlled near 7.4 yuan per dollar during the first half of 2025. However, if high tariffs are introduced by Trump’s administration, the yuan could weaken to 7.6 per dollar by the end of 2025. Technical analysis of the USD/CNH chart reveals: → price fluctuations are forming a large contracting triangle, with higher lows in 2023 and 2024 indicating stronger demand; → an upward trend structure, highlighted in blue, emerged in late 2024; → a grey arrow points to the trend direction calculated using linear regression. Thus, in early 2025, another attempt at a bullish breakout above 7.35 may occur, though resistance from bears could cause short-term pullbacks towards the lower blue trend line. Given Wang’s bullish outlook and supporting technical signals, it is reasonable to expect bulls to gain control of the 7.35 level during 2025. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
The next few months will be crucial for USDCNHCurrencies play a pivotal role in the trading game, as in importers from China. They buy goods from US and pay in USD , therefore if the CNH is depreciating 2013, that means their costs will get higher. In 2013, 6 yuan equal to 1 USD , fast forward 11 years later, it is now 7.3 yuan to 1 USD. That is almost 11.8% depreciation on a YOY basis for the last 11 years. Someone has to bear the costs and it is naturally the final ends of the straw, from wholesalers to retailers to final consumers....... Some supporting article :https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/economy/china-s-exports-slow-imports-decline-in-november/ar-AA1vHpLN Will I trade this pair? Very unlikely as there were no historical data to show it will breaks above the current 7.3 price level. If it does and as predicted by analysts that it will goes to 8, then the risk reward ratio is very good. Please DYODD
by dchua1969
USDCNY | Market outlook The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan. Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period. Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
usdcnh sidewayusdcnh 28 October 2024 Usdcnh chart Technical Price action time frame : 15 m Technical approach : (resistance & support _ momentum ) _ FAKE BREAKOUT from 7.1450 - Reaction to dynamic trendline and break weak resistance (7.1450) - support (7.1250) midline. sell target is (7.1250) buy target is (7.1600). My idea is downtrend yet. support area midline (7.1250) and strong bullish to target (7.1600) Is in sideway yet. SUPPORT prices : 7.1250 & 7.1100 RESISTANCE prices : 7.1600
Long
by sadrabasi71
Dollar-yuan might continue up but probably not immediatelyBeyond recent changes in monetary policy, the yuan has received some support from news that major Chinese banks have been actively selling dollars to try to support the currency. The market is waiting for further details on the fiscal stimulus announced last month. The 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥7.11 seems likely to hold as a short-term support in the next few days unless significant news reaches markets or there’s further clear strengthening by yields from American bonds. The bounce from below ¥7 at the end of last month was quite vigorous and supported by volume; this would usually suggest the possibility of an ongoing uptrend. The golden cross of the 20 SMA above the 50 from Bands came with a fairly high angle. Now that there’s some evidence of buying saturation, though, further immediate gains seem less clear. It’s still a fair way to go to reach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100 and 200 SMAs are likely to be dynamic resistances to some extent before that. Consolidation seems to be possible ahead of American GDP on 30 October, but beyond that ongoing gains seem possible if the data support them. This is my personal opinion which does not reflect the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness