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US Dollar/Chinese Yuan

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USDCNH trade ideas

The offshore RMB may be difficult to break 7The offshore RMB may continue to depreciate, but the extent is limited, and it may be difficult to break 7. Under the expectation of the appreciation of the US dollar, non-US currencies are generally weak against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB has to depreciate. RMB to remain generally "stable and volatile" in past 10 years. The intention of the Chinese central bank to lead the easing of the domestic economic environment is apparent. China's positive foreign trade figures were favorable to the appreciation of the offshore RMB. The market has now anticipated and priced in Powell's likely hawkish bias at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this weekend (25-27 August) from 11 August to 23 August. As a result, the USD index has risen by 4.5% (104.30 - 109.00). In the medium to long term, the author believes that it is unlikely that the offshore RMB will depreciate significantly. The CNH/USD will continue to depreciate for the rest of the year, driven by the rising USD, but it may be more challenging to break 7.0000. CNH/USD may be expected to depreciate with a high probability to the max range of 6.900- 6.9500 in the rest of the year, then it is more likely to resume appreciation to around 6.5750.
by SandyWang
USDCNH breakoutPrice broke up this triangle📐 and I think there is chance for run to 6.92 and even higher. Setting BUY LIMIT order to previous range high to catch🎣 the pullback. Resistances along the way ENTRY : local high @ 6.735 STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 6.668 TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - STOPLOSS) @ 6.92 REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.8 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Long
by bizmark
7
US Dollar Ready to Resume Rise Against the Chinese Yuan?Following a few months of consolidation, the US Dollar seems to be making some upside progress against the Chinese Yuan. Fundamentally speaking, a hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish People's Bank of China offer upside potential for USD/CNH. This also follows measures from China's government (about 1 trillion Yuan) to bolster the economy. In response, USD/CNH is trying to confirm a breakout above the May high (6.8376). Key resistance seems to be the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension (6.8833). Further gains place the focus on the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 6.9460 and 7.0353 respectively. Keep a close eye on the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). These could reinstate the upside focus in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
JICPT| USDCNH is likely to test 7.01Hello everyone. USDCNH has been moving sideways for the past 3 months until the weaker-than-expected July economic data released this week. In addition, the unexpected rate cut to MLF gave a boost to the pair. The offshore Chinese currency fell sharply against the dollar by over 700 bps. Now, it pulled back from the previous high around 6.83. Technically, the all my moving averages are heading to the upside, with a quick retest of my long key MA. That may indicate that previous high is likely to be penetrated. By the measure move method, the upper range after the breakout is 7.01. The weaker Renminbi can help China's export, offsetting the impact of sluggish domestic demand. Companies and consumers are reluctant to take on more debt amid fresh Covid flare-ups. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
Long
by JICPT
USDCNH - Dollar is kingFollowing my post on HSI, my focus is also on USDCNH pair. My take is that it is in an upward channel and given the differing monetary policies by the Fed and PBoC, my take is that USD will continue to strengthen. However, we should pay more attention to the Jackson Hole symposium for more insights on the Fed's future rate policies as well as the US labour market which seems to be still red hot. On the technical front, if the dollar crosses 6.842, there is likely to be greater upside. Else if it closes well below 6.83, then likely to continue the downward trend to the next retracement level. Based on stoch, it appears to be a buying signal but the volume is still weak.
by TraderXR
Typical Long USDCNH breakout playUSD tightening policy vs CNH easing policy Inflation is like an illness, and medicine needs to be tailored to the specific problem. Both countries policies are deployed to aid individual domestic economy. And right now, the Fed has no control over the main driver of rising prices, however data suggest that domestic economy allows for Fed to press on tightening policies while closely monitoring signs of industrial recession. On the other hand, China is behind inflation and GDP target, and PBOC has reiterate on easing monetary policies to focus on lowering cost of covid controls while stimulating effective demands. We expect to see more fiscal aid coming from Chinese government in second half 2022 to support economic growth. Upcoming U.S PMI and CPI data will give more colors to dollar strength, with stronger data pointing to dollar strengthening together with more liquidity assistance by PBOC, we are likely to see short term USDCNH strengthening towards 6.9x over the next few months; in line with forward premium rate follow by USDCNH retracement in late 2022 due to peak inflation and China domestic recovery leading the economy. We expect the release of China’s fiscal policy to be the trigger for this possible upcoming breakout of USDCNH, with more injected liquidity into the system that weakens RMB. While dollar side movement had been somewhat priced for 75bps next Fed meeting together with projected Fed Dot Plot, the remaining moving factor ceteris paribus shall fall on RMB side of story.
Long
by ChuaChangYi
UNPOPULAR OPINION USDCNHThings you should not bet against and one major of them is commodity currencies. I have done research based on sentiments and everyone is looking for a crisis out of china to be break its market, especially in the housing market. This is my personal view based on a group of commodity currencies a reversal in all of them in almost certain. Will this push for a second wave of inflation "YES" not likely to be felt a few year is monetary policies reverse which I see them doing, but if they become more aggressive then risk of uncertainty is extremely high also Risk of emerging markets could be far worse that we imagine. Long commodities and commodity currencies.
Short
by Beclinks_Capital
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice. The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%. This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Long
by DNP-FX
2