USDCNH trade ideas
USDCNH BUY AREA DEDECTEDLooking at the chart, we can see a potential buy area between: 6.90379 / 6.85929, with a SL below: 6.85927 and a TP#1 area between 7.11314 / 7.03962 where I recommend closing 50% of your initial tradesize to give the TP#2 area "air to breave" and give you potentially more gains in the area between: 7.29197 / 7.18672
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USD/CNH: Chaos For Chinese YuanUSD/CNH probes 7.0300 as Chinese traders weigh trade data, shift in risk tone
USD/CNH stops the previous three days’ declines.
Disappointment from China data, increasing uncertainty ahead of US tariffs and signs of protests in Hong Kong all play their roles.
The risk tone stays sluggish ahead of the key week.
USD/CNH takes the bids to 7.0300 as Chinese markets open for Monday’s trading. Traders might have reacted to the weekend data from China while trade pessimism and negative headlines from Hong Kong could have acted as additional forces.
China’s November month Exports fell unexpectedly to -1.1% versus +1.0% forecast whereas Imports rose, +0.3% against -6.4% prior, for the first time since April. Further, Trade Balance of $38.73B lagged behind $46.3B market consensus.
Even so, China’s Global Times shrugs of the trade war with the United States (US) to be the reason to worry. Also contributing to the risk-off was the Financial Times (FT) report suggesting Beijing’s order to all government offices to stop using foreign personal computers (PCs) and software within a time span of three years. Additionally, Bloomberg reported the news of the biggest pro-democracy protest in months on Sunday while anticipating more unrest to follow in 2020.
Given the market’s uncertain times ahead of the US decision on December 15 tariffs on the Chinese goods, such downbeat headlines weigh on risk tone and stop the US 10-year treasury yields around 1.84%, ignoring the Friday’s run-up.
Investors will now keep eyes on trade headlines and the US reaction to the Hong Kong protests, not to forget China’s restrictions on PC and software usage, for fresh impulse.
USD/CNH 15 Dec 2019. Technical looks pretty bearish with LHLL. 6.95 was well supported with heavy volume, we might see a temporary pull back to 7.05 area. Watch that area closely. Target price 6.9. Trade war update plays a huge part on the movement of this pair, so watch closely.
As long as 7.15 holds, we should see a further downside.
What I'm seeing on USDCNH!Gooday Traders! Do put in mind the somewhat unrest the UK general elections has brought to the market lately which did alter a lot of technical structures as this also might not play out as well.
However, from what im seeing on the USDCNH chart, price has been forming a rising wedge pattern and with what i see, there's still room for more bullish action.
Lately, price formed a bullish flag pattern, which confirms our bullish stance once again.
While this is kinda a weekly setup, i'll be watching D1 and H4 closely for confirming price action to pull the trigger.
Remember proper risk management is crucial.
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Long USDCNH with Trump comment on trade deal with ChinaTrump sent a negative signal on trade deal again, mentioned that there will be no deadline to sign a deal. The only thing matter is whether he wants a deal or not. It's even better to sign after the election the next year. Also, Ross said that additional tariffs would be levied if no progress before Dec. 15th.
US dollar continues to grind higher against YuanThe US dollar continues to rally against the Chinese Yuan, grinding higher and above the 7.00 CNH level. The market has recently seen the 200 day EMA level as support and bounce quite nicely from there. By doing so, we have attacked the 50 day EMA, but have not broken above it yet. If we can close above there on a daily chart, then it becomes a very bullish sign. Overall, that could send the market looking towards the 7.15 CNH level, but it’s going to take some time to get there.
Keep in mind that this pair is essentially “Ground Zero” when it comes to the US/China trade war, and as a result it will go up and down based upon whether or not there is some type of an agreement. This pair will literally go back and forth based upon whether or not people feel good about the deal or not. Recently, there has been a bit of a grind higher, and that suggest that perhaps people are a bit cautious and therefore buying the US dollar. Despite what some politicians in the United States will tell you, the Chinese do not want the currency pair to go too much higher, because most of their debt is denominated in US dollars. In other words, the higher this market goes, the more dangerous their debt becomes. As it rises, it is a sign that people are becoming more and more concerned, and if you do not trade this market, it should be thought of as a barometer on risk appetite. If this pair rises, quite often it means trouble in other risky assets around the world. This is something that unfortunately retail traders don’t pay much attention to, so it gives you a bit of a “leg up” on how the world is feeling about this US/China situation. That being said, it does make a nice longer-term market, and closing above that 50 day EMA, offers a significant move higher.
Dollar continues recovery against the Chinese YuanThe US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see the US dollar pick up steam against the Chinese Yuan. A lot of this is going to come down to the US/China trade deal, and although we have had a significant pullback as of late, you can see that the market has bounce from the 200 day EMA. We are currently testing the 50 day EMA, which of course is a moving average that when tested should show some type of resiliency. We ended up forming a shooting star on Thursday, but it looks as if the market is going to try to break above there, which of course would be a very bullish sign.
If we continue to see a lot of the Dragon on the US/China trade deal, it’s possible that this market will continue to go higher. What’s noteworthy at the moment is that the market is now comfortable around the 7.00 level, so ultimately it looks as if the market will try to find some type of support underneath. At this point, the market should then go looking towards the 7.16 level again, as it was the most recent high. Ultimately, the market continues to see a lot of back and forth in this general vicinity, but I recognize that the uptrend is longer-term, so therefore should not be traded against. The pullback has been exactly what this uptrend needed, and now it’s only a matter of time of picking up a bit of momentum in order to go further. Expect erratic and choppy behavior, but that’s nothing new in this pair. You have to look at the longer-term attitude in order to gauge as to where you should be trading this market and in what direction. It remains bullish, despite the recent pullback.