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USD/CNY_TOD - USD/CNY

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USDCNY_TOD trade ideas

USDCNY trump tariffs impactImpact of Trump's tariffs on CNY and Asia FX So far, since the beginning of recent Trump trade on mid-September, CNY and other Asian currencies only depreciated mildly, with CNY and the Asia Dollar index depreciating 1.88% and 1.3% respectively against the Dollar. We believe that such levels of depreciation against the Dollar reflect that market has not yet priced in a potential large size of US tariffs on China and else, especially considering that such depreciations happened amid a 4.1% strengthening of the US Dollar and the rising US bond yields. Impact on CNY: a 60% tariff would REQUIRE a 10%-12% depreciation of CNY against the Dollar to offset the negative impact of tariffs, keeping everything else unchanged. A potential less strong Dollar in medium term compared with 2018-2019 trade war time, makes the required 10%-12% CNY depreciation much more significant than it appears. During the US-China trade war period (March 2018-September 2019), CNY depreciated about 12% against the US Dollar, however that 12% CNY depreciation happened amid a 10% US Dollar’s appreciation, CNY’s depreciation wasn’t entirely driven by the tariffs. It may not be realistic for PBOC to let CNY to free fall, and they may intervene as well. Economic performance is never static. Potential tariff retaliation could worsen the situation and there is risk of other countries raising tariffs on China products too. China’s economy is at weak condition, with on-going property sector stress, weak domestic demand, local-government debts and etc. Abrupt large CNY depreciation could de-stabilize the financial system. Fiscal support can offset the negative impact brought by the high tariffs, which in turn reduces the need for much CNY depreciation. Some estimates that it takes a fiscal stimulus of RMB 2.5 to 3 trillion to offset the 60% US tariff’s drag on China GDP, everything else being equal. Should this happen, CNY may not depreciate much. If US uses the tariff as a negotiation tool, then CNY’s depreciation is more likely to happen during an extended period of time when negotiation is happening, like what we saw in Trump’s first trade war in 2018-2019. Near term, the anticipation for a potential tariff could pressure the CNY weaker, to 7.3 probably by the end of this year, before more material depreciation in 2025, if there lacks sufficient fiscal support to offset the tariff’s drag on overall economy.
Long
by Pipstarr
USDCNY Bearish Leg confirmed after this 1D MA50 failure.The USDCNY pair has technically topped as it broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and upon a re-test, it got rejected. This test-and-fail pattern is seen during both previous Bearish Legs in the past 15 months. Even the 1D RSI is identical among all three fractals and they both ended up declining by roughly -3.60%. As a result, we turn bearish here on a confirmed break-out signal, targeting 7.0800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall. This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
Long
by UDIS_View
USDCNY, DailyBeyond recent changes in monetary policy, the yuan has received some support from news that major Chinese banks have been actively selling dollars to try to support the currency. The market is waiting for further details on the fiscal stimulus announced last month. The 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥7.11 seems likely to hold as a short-term support in the next few days unless significant news reaches markets or there’s further clear strengthening by yields from American bonds. The bounce from below ¥7 at the end of last month was quite vigorous and supported by volume; this would usually suggest the possibility of an ongoing uptrend. The golden cross of the 20 SMA above the 50 from Bands came with a fairly high angle. Now that there’s some evidence of buying saturation, though, further immediate gains seem less clear. It’s still a fair way to go to reach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 100 and 200 SMAs are likely to be dynamic resistances to some extent before that. Consolidation seems to be possible ahead of American GDP on 30 October, but beyond that ongoing gains seem possible if the data support them.
by Exness_Official
USDCNY Brace for a cyclical 1-year sell-off.The USDCNY pair is almost on a 3-month decline after a Lower Highs rejection early in July. Having broken below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) the same month, which was the long-term Support, this Lower Highs is a standard cyclical top formation that has shown up both on the May 2020 and 2017 tops. The similarities are more obvious on the 1W RSI, where the pair makes its cyclical bottom after a Higher Lows trend-line is formed on oversold territory and tops on the Lower Highs trend-line shown. Right now it appears that we are just before it breaks downwards aggressively and attack the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The Sine Waves also give a great perspective of the frequency of those Cycle Bottoms. As a result, we expect the pair to have reached by the end of 2025 the 10-year Higher Lows Zone. Our long-term Target is 6.500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
2
Goldman Sachs Predicts China's Central Bank to Cut Reserve RequiGoldman Sachs analyst Hui Shan expects China's central bank to reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in the third and fourth quarters, aiming to manage the decline in long-term yields. This move comes in response to rising bond prices and weak aggregate demand. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is also focused on reducing financing costs for companies and households. Meanwhile, the yuan carry trade is under scrutiny as the Chinese currency strengthens against the dollar. Analysts are monitoring the potential risks and the impact on global markets.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDCNY hit the 1DMA200 and rebounded. Clear bullish confirmationThe USDCNY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 15 2023 market bottom. Yesterday is completed a violent 2-day collapse and hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) right at the bottom of the Channel Up. The price almost immediately rebounded, so that gives the most clear buy confirmation on the short-term. We turn bullish again, targeting a Higher High at 7.3100 (+1.39% rise). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
running double three (next target 7.54)A running double three (W-X-Y) was noticed on the USDCNY chart. A minimum of 2.618 times of wave 1 from the end of wave 2, (end of Y) will be the next target price for USDCNY at 7.54. The target price can be higher, it all depends on how the impulsive wave 3 unfolds. wave c of the running flat (abc) of wave Y, may stretch further but it has sufficed a 0.618 times of wave a. A breakout over 7.28 will signal the impulsive wave 3 has begun.
Long
by brown_maverick
China's Yuan Depreciation: PBOC Guidance Signals Potential ShiftChina's Yuan Weakens on Strategic Policy Shift by PBOC The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has depreciated to a seven-month low against the US Dollar (USD) in a move attributed to a recent shift in guidance by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This development suggests a potential change in strategy by the central bank, indicating a greater tolerance for a weaker yuan. Weaker Guidance Fuels Depreciation The PBOC's revised daily guidance for the yuan's exchange rate has emerged as a key driver of the currency's depreciation. This guidance, set weaker than market expectations, has signaled to investors a potential shift in the PBOC's stance on currency management. Domestic Pressures and Capital Outflows The yuan's weakness is further amplified by ongoing economic challenges within China. A sluggish domestic economy, coupled with weak consumer spending and declining yields, is prompting capital outflows. This trend is putting downward pressure on the yuan's value. PBOC Takes Action to Stabilize Bond Yields In a separate development, the PBOC is taking steps to address concerns surrounding falling bond yields. The central bank has announced plans to borrow treasury bonds through open market operations. This move aims to stabilize yields and prevent a rapid decline that could trigger financial instability. Navigating Complex Dynamics These recent developments underscore the intricate dynamics currently at play within China's financial markets. The PBOC's actions suggest a strategic response to a confluence of domestic and international economic pressures. The depreciation of the yuan and efforts to stabilize bond yields highlight the ongoing efforts by the central bank to navigate a complex economic landscape.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDCNY Channel Up extending its rise.The USDCNY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 24 Low. Being supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) during the past 3 months (since March 14), the price recently formed a 1D Golden Cross. As a result, we expect a continuation of this textbook uptrend, aiming at a standard +0.70% rise (similar to all previous Bullish Legs of the pattern). Our Target is 7.2875, marginally below Resistance 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 26 - CNYUSD - (8th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing CNYUSD, starting from the 4-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my other videos on TradingView or on YT. If you are interested in private coaching, feel free to get in touch via one of my socials.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
Ascending Triangle Points Towards Yuan Devaluation This SummerNote: the technical indicators show a TTM squeeze ready on EVERY TF except Monthly, which is about to happen shortly by this summer - which means a massive move will happen. BOJ will blow up this summer and will devalue against the dollar forcing China to devalue to stay export competitive. I see a 50% devaluation - which will have the opposite effect on everyone else. If China devalues, that means they invite inflation into their economy, which forces deflation throughout the whole world. This will push up the dollar and blow up everyone else's currency. I see the dollar TVC:DXY going to 140-160+ before it too blows up. Of course this implosion will be blamed on some external false flag event - while the FED trots out CBDC's via DigitalID anchored to social credit scores that allows the FED to effectively use negative interest rates via social credit scores and time value of the credits. Gold and silver really won't matter because people will be looking for food.
Long
by EmptyEternity
USDCNY Above the 1D MA200 and looking bullish as ever.The USDCNY pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity on October 02 2023 (see chart below), as it stayed below Resistance 1 and hit our 7.1225 Target: The price has since started to rise after hitting the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Rising Wedge, and now sits above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), past a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. We expect a slow and steady extension of this rise, targeting 7.3500 (Resistance 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot