USD/CNY Analysis: Mid-TermTechnical Analysis
i) Looks like a Cup and Handle formation for USD/CNY on the weekly chart. Looking to short play the Handle, looking for entries between 6.62 - 6.64 down to 6.48 level.
ii) Our most likely scenario (1), will have a pullback from the Handle down to the 6.48 level from their should look for some long positions up to 6.8 level.
*ii) However, as any good trader should know is that you shouldn't get married to a position or scenario. Therefore, for this scenario (2) at the 6.48 level instead of immedietaly closing position I advice that we re-assess the markets at that moment in time and see whether we should continue shorting down to 6.3 further easing into shorts on the ride down.
**A1 is a copy/shadow of the Bars Pattern taken from A.
Fundamental Analysis
The strength of the US economy which led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year in conjunction with Trump's Tariffs has led the Chinese Yuan to fall more than 3% again the dollar in the past two weeks as tensions between the two largest economies has escalated.
Chinese companies have amassed huge leveles of US dollar debts in recent years through bond sales in Hong Kong, according to financial data provider Dealoagic. However, it seems that China has been preparing for the upcoming Trade War as Moody's Investors Service stated that 'll but five of the 49 rated South and Southeast Asian high-yield non-financial companies have protection in place against a significant rise in debt levels or borrowing costs, if their local currencies were to depreciate up to 15% against the US dollar. The 49 companies reported a combined US dollar debt total of $45.5 billion as of year-end 2017, or about 55% of their total outstanding debt'.
We can expect a further depeciation in the Yuan which shouldn't be to alarming for investors as it could make China's huge export industry more competitive globally as it makes Chinese products cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars. For which Trump has in the past repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency's value in order to acheive this.
USDCNY_TOD trade ideas
USDCNY - Daily - Most popular topic recently: "Trade War"Trade Alert
For now, it seems that this pair could continue shifting north towards our key levels of resistance. With China, potentially, trying to solve their export issue, they could devalue their currency a bit more, in order to make their exports more attractive. This could drive USDCNY a bit higher again. Please see the chart for potential targets above the current rate.
On the other hand, do not exclude a possibility for a bit of a correction to the downside, in order for the bulls to jump in again at later stage. Also, please see the chart for details.
Don't forget to have your SL in place.
USDCNY - Daily - Time for Yuan to recover some of its losses?Trade Alert
It looks like the Yuan is trying to fight back and recover some of its losses recently. USDCNY is currently below the 21 EMA, which could be interpreted as a bearish signal for the pair.
A break below the 6.383 level could open the path towards the next key area of support at 6.355. Below that, we have another good area of support at 6.325.
On the upside, a move back above 6.410 could interest the bulls in driving the pair higher towards the 6.435.
Don't forget your SL.
The Dragon, The Eagle And The Elephant Investors seem to have started shifting their focus from equities and rates onto the US dollar. We believe that if this dollar rally accelerates it will be a major headache for emerging markets i.e. China, India, and Russia. In part 1 of this report I would like to talk about the Dragon the Eagle and The Elephant, first let’s start with the dragon; China.Over the first few months of 2018, we observed that the PMI’s (leading economic indicator) of China had peaked resulting in a slowdown in the Chinese economy as an economy slows down the prices of commodities tends to follow to the downside. Read more at www.patreon.com
USDCNY - Weekly - Very interesting...What other better currency pair to observe during these unnecessary tensions, between the world's two largest economies, then USDCNY.
We are close to the August 2015 important area at around 6.20, when China devalued its currency, which led to a huge spike higher, moving the pair from around 6.20 to 6.96 area against the US Dollar. This move higher took almost one and half years to complete. Since January 2017 the pair was gradually declining and it is almost back at the same level, where it was before August 2015.
Currently, USDCNY is within a small range, but that could change soon, due to the political unrest between the two countries.
Watch the levels carefully, take a position you think is best and don't forget your stops!
US China Trade War - Has the USDCNY Found Support?The announcement over night that US President Trump would be looking to impose Tariffs on up to $60 billion worth of Chinese products, could further exacerbate the uncertainty surrounding the USDCNY. Have we finally found support, or will the Yuan continue to strengthen against the US Dollar? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
I'll be short! C'mon the USANice short opportunity where, we have seen our big bull run last year and have now been in a downward trend for quite some time.
You will see on chart the ascending triangle is formed and we are nearly 2 thirds of the way through trading this triangle where indicators are telling us we will break low and continue on a downward trend.
This has huge upside and minimal risk, short break of ascending triangle and target at 5.70.
This trade will take a few days to develop we are entering into the break zone now and will of course break before the apex.
This has amazing upside potential anywhere from 10-12% within a 30 day duration.
Cash Is King, we all know it so let's trade. Follow for your daily signals
usd/cny is very revealing when it comes to BTCi dont know what this means, but someone who trades Forex will see the correlation here and see were going towards a (profitable, either +/- divergence). these "fiat" currencies play a role in btc/usd (just as the yuan depreciated, btc rised, what do people buy when dollar deprecates to secure their wealth? what do smart* adjusted to the environment were in do i should say.
appl and the dollar yuanNoticing something, apple costs in China will skyrocket if this pair dips much lower, and that is the Trump design, get that dollar lower against other currencies, so it makes more sense to manufacture at home in the usa. China is the big one, and this pair is key, and all those who profited from Chinese lower manufacturing costs, will now have to take the hit. So Dow30 and other S&P big chips gonna feel it in the EPS, unless, and they will, buy back stock with all that repatrioted cash coming back, to support stock price for a while.
Repeat the same pattern?Incredible the numbers that this pair is giving in the long term, however seeing short-term seems to me that it comes a slight descent, very likely repeat the same pattern as before, but do not take me wrong, obviously I know it will not be repeated forever, in fact I think that this will be the last one.
We are quite close to the LT R&S area, which is no more than an point of strong resistance / support for the long-term trend.
Let's see how this develops.