Usd is bullish versus Chinese YuanPrice remains above the 200 Dma. The past 20 bars shows more bullish bars than bear. And we have recently made a new high.
The sentiment remains for another month where in April the bull will continue.
China has so far been aggressive in Her invasion of Philippine economic zone based on the Unclos. And as the violator, I can see the trust in China is constantly being tested.
From the real property bubble of property development Evergrande to state control stiffling free market of capitalism. I can see only one choice for China.
1. Conform to Capitalism
2. Respect International laws
3. Re think the brics
Of course i don't see china changing her ways anytime soon. Hence i can only foresee based on the idea that the hypothesis is Usd bull.
USDCNY_TOD trade ideas
๐บ๐ธ President Joe Bidenโs Bearish Remarks on the USD vs. CNY ๐จ
Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, and all you Zoomers out there, gather 'round! Uncle Joeโs got some thoughts about our greenbacks and those sneaky Chinese Yuan. Buckle up, because weโre diving into the financial rabbit hole. ๐
1. โThe Dollarโs Got Swaggerโ
You know, folks, the U.S. dollar has been strutting its stuff for centuries. Itโs like that cool kid in high school who always had the latest sneakers and a killer mixtape. Well, guess what? The dollarโs still got swagger. ๐ธ
2. โYuan? More Like Yawn!โ
Now, letโs talk about the Chinese Yuan. Sure, itโs got pandas on its bills, but pandas donโt pay the rent, my friends. The Yuanโs like that kid who shows up to the party with a veggie platter. Nice try, but weโre here for the pizza. ๐
3. โQuantitative Easing? Nah, Weโre on a Diet!โ
Our Federal Reserveโs been flexing its muscles, printing money like itโs going out of style. But guess what? Weโre not on a doughnut binge. Weโre on a financial diet. No more QE buffets. ๐ฉ
4. โTrade Wars? More Like Pillow Fights!โ
China and the U.S. have been duking it out in trade wars. But honestly, itโs like watching two toddlers in superhero costumes pillow-fighting. Cute, but not exactly world-changing. ๐
5. โ0.11 CNY/USD? Thatโs a Bargain!โ
So, rumor has it the yuanโs gonna dump to 0.11 CNY/USD. Well, let me tell you, thatโs practically a yard sale price. Sell one, get one free! ๐
6. โZoomers, HODL Your Avocado Toast!โ
To my Zoomer pals: Forget avocado toast for a sec. HODL those dollars like theyโre vintage Pokรฉmon cards. Trust me, when the Yuanโs doing the cha-cha, youโll thank me. ๐ฅ๐ฐ
7. โCrypto? Nah, I Prefer Monopoly Money!โ
And donโt get me started on crypto. Itโs like playing Monopoly with invisible cash. Pass Go, collect Bitcoin. But give me that real green paper any day. ๐ต
In conclusion, my fellow Americans, letโs keep our eyes on the prize. The dollarโs been through wars, recessions, and disco fever. It ainโt backing down. As for the Yuan, well, pandas are cute, but they wonโt save your retirement fund. Stay woke, stay dollar-wise, and remember: In Joe we trust (and a little bit of Ben Franklin). ๐บ๐ธ๐ช
Disclaimer: This post is purely fictional and for entertainment purposes. No actual financial advice here, folks. Consult your financial advisor, not Uncle Joe. ๐ฉ๐ค
USDCNY RSI Bullish Divergence calling for a buyThe USDCNY pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity on our last analysis (October 02 2023, see chart below), as it stayed below Resistance 1 and hit our 7.1225 Target
At the moment the price is struggling to break above the 1D MA5 (blue trend-line), which it hit yesterday for the first time since November 06 2023. What we are currently more interested at is the Higher Lows trend-line that the 1D RSI has been trading on since November 21. During that time, the price is on Lower Lows, which from an RSI perspective is a Bullish Divergence.
At the same time, the pair just formed a 1D Death Cross, the first since February 03 2023, which was on the previous long-term market bottom. What followed after that was a 1D MA100 test (green trend-line). Since we are already on a small rebound, we will buy after a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 and target 7.2200 (projected contact with the 1D MA100). Then if the price pulls back and as long as it is above the 1D MA50, we will buy again and target Resistance 2 at 7.2975.
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USD/CNY to test 7 (+/-0.06), then target 7.40Daily chart, the USD/Yuan is seen to test support at 7.06 - 6.94, then rebound to target upper resistance line (blue) at 7.40
Crossing the 7.40 level will push the currency pair to far high targets on the longer term.
Stop loss at support line (red) should be considered.
#USDCNY long term selling opportunityPrice in Daily timeframe seems like to complete 5 wave bullish move and also we can see bearish standard divergence between price and MACD which is a very good signal for pinpointing the top.
But the important thing to remember before taking position is to see market structure shifting to the downside with forming a lower high or creating a new low which at the moment non of this signals has been given by the price.
So its best to wait for the price to confirm the bearish signals its giving to us before jumping to trade.
Please also look at the other analysis in the weekly timeframe that I have posted for higher time frame confirmations which is also tagged.
#USDCNY long term selling opportunityAs you can see in the chart massive bearish divergence between price and MACD indicator in weekly time frame which can cause a long term selling opportunity.
Also price is testing bullish trend line acting as resistance since its connecting the tops and every time price test this trendline sellers jumped into market and drive price lower.
Also as you can see we already had bearish divergence in the price before and caused prices to come lower in previous tops
Quick update on CB rat raceAs you citizens can see we've found a mistake in our earlier analysis, we are apoligising for this. We think that during summer of 1998 Russian Federation stepped into fx trading big time and move cycles towards bigger and longer planning. So as you have guessed this is a game of sharade about who is planning longer and who is taking gaps. Thank you and see you later, have a good working week guests.
Summer 2025 prognosysAs it seems in this cold winter Chinese ecnomy has been overheated lately and come to a cold relax. Being world fabrique they hold the leadership in currency squable nevertheless USD, RUBLE, YEN, RUPEE and the rest of the world play their role in the nevertheless of the world markets holy place. Wee see June 2025 as the key uncompounded substance of what is going to happen. Feel free to enjoy out with our analysis and add yours in the middle of ours!
Currency scuffleAs you can see we prepared update for the currency agenda, we have added gd, jpy, rub, and inr to the fuse, as you can see fibonacci cycles stayed the same in the anbsence. We think or at least clearly see on a chart that rub was the most profitable currency available. In the later arrivals we will try to discover most profitable assets nominated in rubles and compare them to assets in other curencies. Feel free to read, analyse, comment and enjoy the party.
Yuan under controlOn the chart we have prepared you can see how yuan was the most hard currency to understand during first two cycles of liquidity squabbling. After this in 2009 USA started to develop a new paradigm ideal for currency fx trading. This was in the third fibonacci cycle of the Chinese brainwave. In the result 2015 was the groundbraking moment resulted in the volatility in the yuan. This has done a lot of noise and side effect in Federal Reserve Funds volatility cycles. Ergo sum is we're in the third fibonacci cycle of Federal Reserve Volatility and in the second fibonacci cycle of the Federal Reserve budgeting cycle. And as you san see analysing ATR yuan is in tears. Please read analyse and comment dear citizen.
USDCNY Strong Support on the Channel UP and 1D MA50.USDCNY is extending the strong bullish pattern inside the nine month Channel Up. The neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.450, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 34.492) indicates that the current level is a good buy opportunity, especially since the 1D MA50 holds. A crossing under the 1D MA100 however invalidates the bullish trend. Until then, we are long aiming at the 2.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 7.4850).
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USDCNY Topped on Head & Shoulders or Channel Up extension?It has been long since we last traded the USDCNY pair (May 2023), that gave a solid short-term buy break-out signal (chart below):
The trend has broken aggressively inside a long term Channel Up, which recently broke above the 7.3300 Resistance but only marginally. It stands out that the Resistance breach was made on the Head of a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. If Resistance 1 (7.3300) breaks again, then this pattern gets invalidated and we will expected a test of the dotted line at 7.4000.
On the other hand, a break below Support 1 (7.2450) but more importantly the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that has been supporting since April 19 2023, would be a sell signal towards Support 2 (7.1225) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice that the 1D RSI has been trading below a Lower Highs trend-line and on the H&S Head made the most recent contact. A similar RSI pattern can be seen in 2022, whose price action also formed a H&S pattern that was eventually a big sell signal.
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Where USDCNY is headed could be alot higher than expected. Where USDCNY is headed could be alot higher than expected. Since it's inversely correlated to Bitcoin I wonder what will see now that it's breaking resistances, will it bounce on what has now turned support or will it plunge back into the range without completing wave 5..With the bounce from the begining of he year I wouldn't be surprised here to see USDCNY rip higher.
Chinese Yuan Price Action Setting Up For a Potential CollapseWe have a huge Void below us and the Yuan has Rallied away from this Void before, but it appears to now be making a Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on Both the RSI and MACD; If the Yuan Breaks Below the B point of this Potential Crab BAMM which also happens to be The Confirmation Line of what would then also be a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern, we will very likely then see Downwards Acceleration Towards the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Below to Complete the Harmonic Pattern
USD/CNYFX_IDC:USDCNY Price is at a tough spot and I should wait to make a guess. Price could break out of the triangle and retest the resistance zone(I didn't mark it but it will be the last high)before it shoots up -OR it will come back down to the daily support and continue in the range. All I can say for now is that I'm watching to see if a "death cross" will form from the 200 ema and the 20 ema.
USD/CNY ShortLook, no TA here more of an idea based around news that was just announced. China seems to be selling dollars here to prop up the value of their currency. According to the article:
"This adds to the earlier intervention efforts this week, with Reuters reporting that China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars again today in exchange for the yuan in the onshore market. One of the sources said that "the 7.25 level could be the floor (ceiling in the case for USD/CNY) in the near-term". -Forex/live
Now, I'm not taking this news at face-value. I am going to follow this idea as I think it's happening at an interesting time.
Yesterday many tech stocks (JD, BIDU, PDD, IQ, ZH) and ETFs (CQQQ, FXI, YINN) all showed long wick dojis.
I don't trade forex but this could be a development towards CNY gaining momentum which helps mitigate downward pressure on Asian markets.
I am long BABA starting yesterday and have a position in NIO from $8.60.
So yeah.... My idea: USDCNY red days have always correlated with HS (Hang Sang) up. Recently HS has been gaining momentum against the DXY moving up when normally it's inverse or near inverse 65% of the time. I think if we start to see CNY gain momentum, some of these tech stocks are really going to start moving.
Too many bears on China right now, news article after news article. Might be the time to make a contrarian trade.
USD/RMB analysisThere has been much talk lately on the Chinese yuan (RMB) dethroning the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency within the next decade or so.
I have been analysing the chart of USD/RMB from an Elliot wave's perspective to assess the possibility of that occurring.
In my analysis, the pair USD/RMB has completed the running flat pattern (W) and is currently on the 'c' wave of the zigzag pattern (abc). The orange box, in the 8 region, is the target price of the (X) wave. This is followed by a retracement in the form of a triangle or flat (Y) and will bring the pair down to the low end of the 7 region as depicted in the chart.
The Y pattern can be viewed as a consolidation phase for the pair before rallying higher. It took 5 years to complete the W pattern. One would then expect a similar timeframe for the Y pattern.
I will label the corrective pattern (W) flat, (X) zigzag, (Y) flat or triangle, as a running double three pattern, with the possibility of the end of wave 2 higher than that of wave 1.
I reckon that USD will gain from strength to strength against the RMB in the years to come, though it will not be in a linear form. As such, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese yuan will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next decade, let alone in the foreseeable future. IMHO.