USDCOP trade ideas
Possible EW forecast in USDCOP, BULLISH IN THE LONG, LONG RUNSorry for the incorrect EW labeling in the chart, I think that this way you can see the waves in a better way. Sorry for my simple english, I am not a native english speaker.
USDCOP a 3,383El dolar luego de rebotar subirá en pocos días a partir de hoy a 3,383 y podrá pasar hasta los 3,393 testeando máximos históricos con posible ruptura de techo.
USDCOP Macro Flows Towards 3650Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here.
=> The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do.
To put simply, a Q3 hike is underpriced and markets will start trading increased odds of a move from the Fed later this year. It's time to start building positions on the buy-side in dollar for the next few months.
Good luck, I know not many are trading EM so feel free to PM or open the discussion below.
Thanks
USDCOP BULLISH AB-CD PATTERNPrice is currently at the 50 % Fib level. Ill be expecting price to hold this as a strong support. For this trade to be valid we´ll need this support to hold and we hav to break and close above next resistance. If this fails to happen we could see a stronger bearish structure for next week.
Price correction expectedAfter showing an Anti-climax pattern and the channel trend line acting as resistance, we would wait for a price correction. Indeed, the price fell with high bearish momentum and breaking the bull trend line. We would expect the following:
1. Price will test the bull trend line, and then assess the momentum and price patterns to determine next objectives.
2. Price will continue to fall to a nearby support zone (Channel trend line below or the support zone formed by a congestion zone).
COLOMBIA Not sure if you want to go long USD/COM but I'm going to Colombia in Feb and it looks like its gonna be 3400/1ish or even better for me.
COP risk premium low in EM space=> Here we are tracking a break to the upside in USDCOP with a target of 3223
=> This flow is trading the recent underperformance in Columbia and playing it against USD strength via inflation and bond to equity flows.
=> This should be a quick and sharp move with low political risk in Columbia and upside in Oil prices being capped for now.(edited)
=> If risk rises globally we see COP getting hammered and experiencing real pain with the knife being stuck in because of the low carry and less hawkish BanRep(edited)
=> Good luck to those few who are trading this cross
USD COP CORTOEsperamos que suba un poco, otra vez que toque el canal alcista para esperar una caida del precio, buscar patrones de venta!
Colombian Peso strugglingI do not trade this kind of currencies, but if a student asks me, I'll try to show you a quick view of it. The key level for this asset is on this weekly chart.
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USDCOP Breaks triangle patternHigh bullish momentum, it may be close to a consolidation or price correction
Trading rangeIf the USD keeps losing value, and Colombian economy remains "stable", this pair is going to get out of its trading range to go, most likely, to a downtrend.
