USDCZK here's a long-term analysis:---
### ๐ **Chart Summary**
* **Pair**: USD/CZK (US Dollar / Czech Koruna)
* **Timeframe**: 1M (Monthly) โ long-term outlook
* **Current Price**: \~22.16
* **Entry**: Near the lower range of the sideways channel
* **Target**: \~25.83 (Resistance zone โ previous highs)
* **Stop Loss**: \~21.65 (Below key support)
* **Risk/Reward Ratio**: **7.71** โ excellent
* **Trend Structure**: Range-bound but with higher lows forming โ possible **accumulation phase** before breakout.
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### ๐ง **Fundamental Support**
The narrowing **current account surplus** (especially falling services and secondary income) weakens the koruna's fundamental support:
* ๐จ๐ฟ CZK may **depreciate** if inflows continue to drop.
* ๐บ๐ธ USD may remain relatively strong on higher US interest rates and global demand for safe assets.
This setup aligns well with a **long USD/CZK** position.
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### ๐๏ธ **Long-Term Outlook**
* **Bias**: Bullish (for USD/CZK)
* **Target Zone**: 24.35 โ 25.83 is realistic based on historical resistance
* **Timeframe**: This could play out over **6โ12 months** depending on macro trends
* **Key Breakout Level**: If price closes above 23.50 on a monthly candle, expect momentum to accelerate.
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### โ ๏ธ Watch For:
1. **US inflation & Fed rate policy** โ Strong USD = boost to this setup.
2. **Czech economic data** โ Continued weakness in exports or services = further CZK depreciation.
3. **Geopolitical or regional EU shocks** โ safe-haven flows may lift USD.
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### โ Conclusion:
**Yes โ this is a valid long-term bullish trade on USD/CZK.**
Your entry near the base of the range, tight stop, and large upside makes it a strong risk/reward play in line with weakening CZK fundamentals.
