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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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USDEUR trade ideas

FLYING MORE PROFITS FROM EUR/USDEUR/USD 15M - As you can see this second trade has taken off and is performing really well for us, allowing us to bank more profits from this market. I am expecting a TP hit by the end of the day. With us adding to our original trade it is important we are partialing and applying safety measures with our trades to make the most from them whilst keeping our risk at a minimum. The original trade is running + 40 pips. (+ 2.5%) 2.5R The second trade is currently running + 20 pips. (+ 2%) 2RR A big well done to all those involved in this market, ensure you are managing your trades correctly and taking partials throughout. If you have any questions with regards to the trades I have placed over the course of the past two days or the analysis I have provided then please drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible!
Long
by Lukegforex
FX/COM Trade 4EUR/USD Asset did a fake break down and then pumped on news. It used the previous resistance as support but did not fully retrieve liquidity (wick wasn’t deep enough) and then I noticed that it was heading to the downside again , I put a long order deeper into the previous resistance for more liquidity, hoping to get an entry. Trade is invalid if we do not see a strong pump to the upside. Entry – 1.08007 Stop loss – 1.07938 (-0.06%) Take Profit – 1.08436 (+0.40%) RR: 6.3
Long
by NathannNFTEE
1
EURUSD SHORT 31/03/2025Break of structure waited upon. This was created in the London session. Leaving a 5m order block after initial tap of the 15’ which price actions reacted from. Now awaiting the pull back into the 5’ order block. Option one is to look for a 1 minute shift in what would be bullish price action into the level. Once the shift bearish occurs, entry should be valid after bearish in engulfing candling or 1m price imbalance fill. Let’s see how it plays out. FRGNT.
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD Forms Bearish Triangle Ahead of Tariff AnnouncementAhead of today’s tariff announcement, EURUSD has formed a bearish triangle pattern. Among major instruments, EURUSD has been one of the least affected by tariff expectations in recent days. However, there is a short-term risk of a downside break. If the support near 1.0780 fails, EURUSD could retreat below 1.0750 before the announcement. In any case, traders should be prepared for sharp intraday reversals due to potential rumors and positioning ahead of Trump's statement.
Short
by ftdsystem
EURUSD SHORTS Q2 W14 Y25 WED 2ND APRIL 2025EURUSD SHORTS Q2 W14 Y25 WED 2ND APRIL 2025 The higher time frame is pushing this narrative. Take a look at the weekly time frame. Price actions is indication a bearish reaction from the weekly Order Block. For this reason, ALL long positions are off the table until further notice. That of course makes out job as risk managers a lot easier. We can now focus our bias on looking for high probability short set ups. So what do we have- The current weekly candle, we can anticipate has makes it high, creating our perfect area to short from once an indication of price slow down and bullish turn around has occurred. We have our weekly and daily50 exponential moving average to short toward. Add that to the bag of confluences. internal 15' market structure and price action. There some work to be done and a potentially a period of sitting on hands whilst we wait for price to show its hands. We have two 15' points of interests that a short could present itself from however we must be mindful of the internal structure so a clear turn around of price once the areas have been touched is required. Ideally I will first need to see a break of structure post London open, leaving Tokyo highs, that will be our confluence for price returning to our area. If 15' structure does not break post London open, I will await for the higher 15' point of interest. knowing this higher area is almost the last resort for the short set up, my confluences for price turn around will be reduced. 1' breaks of structure, followed by bearish engulfing candles and or 1' imbalance candle fill will be more than sufficient for a position to be executed. In summery, EURUSD SHORTS. Closest 15' OB- need to see a break below structure first to indicate selling pressure leading Toyko untouched. await the pull back into the 15'- await a turn around in price and short to the close 50 EMA. Higher 15' OB, lets see how price arrives, slow and steady, showing signs of slow down, lets entertain lower time frame breaks of struture for a short down to Tokyo lows on the assumption not mitigated post session close. Lets see how it plays. FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD Tests 17-Year Long-Term Trend!!!After Trump announced an additional 20% in tariffs, EURUSD made a relatively surprising move and surged sharply. This marks the second leg of the upward trend that began in early March. However, the sharp rise has now brought EURUSD to the doorstep of a very long-term resistance level. Since testing 1.60 in 2008, EURUSD has been moving lower within a wide descending trend channel that has held for 17 years. Since 2015, the pattern has evolved into a wedge formation within this broader channel. The most recent test of this resistance came last year, but at the time, a weak Eurozone economy, crowded Euro long positions, and a hawkish Fed prevented a breakout. This time, the landscape is different. The Eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the ECB’s rate cuts appear to be nearing their end, and European countries have started to band together following a decline in confidence in their biggest ally and decide to increase technology, defence spending. Despite these developments, the medium-term effects of the new tariffs and the strength of the long-term resistance level are likely to prevent a clear breakout for now. Still, the long-term outlook is beginning to shift in favor of the euro, and a breakout later this year carries a significant probability.
by ftdsystem
Will markets suffer a 30% drop?Will markets suffer a 30% drop? The announcement of new U.S. tariffs caused a surprising wave of selling in financial markets, sparing no sector. The consequences of this decision have been shaken, and the market is now in a state of uncertainty. The uncertainty has also affected monetary policy expectations, with investors now predicting more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is evident from the collapse in the probability of the “no cut” scenario according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. To make matters worse, the recent ISM data showed a sharp decline in new orders, a worrisome sign for future economic growth. In addition, only 47 percent of companies listed in the S&P 500 are priced above their 200-day moving average, a level that in the past has been associated with average declines of 7.3 percent over the next 12 months. However, is it really justified to be so concerned? A major cause of the panic is the Atlanta Fed's forecast, which significantly revised downward its estimated growth for the current quarter. According to the GDPNow model, the annual increase went from +2.3 percent to -2.8 percent in just a few days. This dramatic revision has led many analysts to speak of a “Trumpcession,” pointing to a possible risk of recession under a new Trump administration. It is important to note that the Atlanta Fed's forecast is an exception to most current estimates. For example, the New York Fed's Nowcast model still forecasts annual growth of +2.9 percent in the first quarter, in line with previous expectations. This suggests that the sharp drop in the forecast could be influenced by temporary factors or specific calculation methods. Not long ago, the same model predicted +4.0% growth. Stock markets are in turmoil because of growing economic concerns. Technology stocks, which have been driving the stock market upward for years, are now among the main losers, with companies such as Nvidia and Tesla posting negative performances. The aviation sector is also coming under pressure, with companies such as Delta Airlines seeing sharp declines in profits due to economic uncertainty. The financial sector is under particular pressure as banks increase their reserves for potential loan losses, a sign that credit quality may deteriorate in the coming quarters. The volatility futures market is showing signs of concern as contracts maturing in March are more expensive than eight-month contracts. This “backwardation” has been present for four consecutive sessions and in the past has predicted long periods of impending turmoil. Historical facts have shown that when volatility futures remain in backwardation for more than five days, the market suffered further losses in the following month with an average of 4.5 percent. Hedge funds are adapting to the current economic situation and reducing their exposure to equities. Instead, they are focusing their investments on safer assets such as U.S. government bonds, highlighting strong pessimism among institutional investors. Goldman Sachs statistics also reflect this trend, with a reduction in exposure to stocks similar to that seen during the market crash in 2020. The history of financial markets has taught us that phases of volatility and panic are common and cyclical. Often, sudden fluctuations in economic expectations are driven by emotions rather than a rational response to hard data. It is important to note that the tariffs have not yet taken effect, so it is premature to draw firm conclusions about their impact on markets. My prediction is that the tariff war will not materialize and the United States will soon come to an agreement. In addition, it seems increasingly likely that the conflict in Ukraine will end soon and the FED's interest rates will fall, which will have a positive effect on the market in the next quarter. I predict that the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin will recover at least half of their losses in the coming weeks.
by Antonio_Ferlito
EUR/USD Holds Neutral Bias After NFPThe U.S. dollar has managed to regain some ground in the short term after several sessions of gains in EUR/USD. Currently, the pair is showing a downward move of just over 1%, following the NFP report, which showed 228,000 new jobs versus the 137,000 expected. This has slightly increased demand for the U.S. dollar in recent hours, as the market anticipates the possibility of higher inflation and, consequently, more restrictive Fed policy in upcoming decisions. Uptrend Since February 28, a strong upward trend has been in place, showing a clear buying bias in EUR/USD. So far, selling corrections have not been strong enough to break key trendline levels, making this the dominant formation to watch in the short term. RSI In the case of the RSI, oscillations have started to approach the overbought zone near the 70 level. Additionally, it is important to note that while EUR/USD has posted higher highs, the RSI has shown lower highs, reflecting a bearish divergence and signaling a potential imbalance driven by strong short-term buying pressure. This could eventually lead to downward corrections in the sessions ahead. Key Levels: 1.1000 – Major resistance: This level remains the most relevant round-number resistance on the chart. Sustained price action above this level could reinforce bullish momentum in the short term. 1.07911 – Near-term barrier: This level is located near the 200-period moving average and could serve as a tentative zone for future selling corrections. 1.06132 – Distant support: Positioned around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, this level marks a key breakpoint that, if reached, could invalidate the current bullish structure. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
Euro Strengthens as Dollar Weakens !The Euro rose significantly against the US dollar during yesterday's session, Thursday, April 3, 2025, successfully breaching the resistance level at 1.09547 and establishing a new high above it. This upward movement followed the decision by the US president to impose tariffs on approximately 180 countries, significantly impacting the performance of the US dollar negatively. Currently, EUR/USD is experiencing a corrective downward movement that could extend towards the support level at 1.08211, considered an ideal point for resuming the bullish trend targeting the next level at 1.10490. The positive outlook remains valid unless the pair breaks below the critical support at 1.07331 with a daily candle closure beneath it. Such a scenario would invalidate the bullish scenario and strengthen bearish possibilities. Today, markets await the release of the US employment data, where the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline from 151K to 137K. A reading higher than expected could positively impact the dollar and negatively affect the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1%, and any decrease below this level would support the dollar, adding further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
by CFI