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EURUSD SHORTS Q2 W14 Y25 WED 2ND APRIL 2025EURUSD SHORTS Q2 W14 Y25 WED 2ND APRIL 2025 The higher time frame is pushing this narrative. Take a look at the weekly time frame. Price actions is indication a bearish reaction from the weekly Order Block. For this reason, ALL long positions are off the table until further notice. That of course makes out job as risk managers a lot easier. We can now focus our bias on looking for high probability short set ups. So what do we have- The current weekly candle, we can anticipate has makes it high, creating our perfect area to short from once an indication of price slow down and bullish turn around has occurred. We have our weekly and daily50 exponential moving average to short toward. Add that to the bag of confluences. internal 15' market structure and price action. There some work to be done and a potentially a period of sitting on hands whilst we wait for price to show its hands. We have two 15' points of interests that a short could present itself from however we must be mindful of the internal structure so a clear turn around of price once the areas have been touched is required. Ideally I will first need to see a break of structure post London open, leaving Tokyo highs, that will be our confluence for price returning to our area. If 15' structure does not break post London open, I will await for the higher 15' point of interest. knowing this higher area is almost the last resort for the short set up, my confluences for price turn around will be reduced. 1' breaks of structure, followed by bearish engulfing candles and or 1' imbalance candle fill will be more than sufficient for a position to be executed. In summery, EURUSD SHORTS. Closest 15' OB- need to see a break below structure first to indicate selling pressure leading Toyko untouched. await the pull back into the 15'- await a turn around in price and short to the close 50 EMA. Higher 15' OB, lets see how price arrives, slow and steady, showing signs of slow down, lets entertain lower time frame breaks of struture for a short down to Tokyo lows on the assumption not mitigated post session close. Lets see how it plays. FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
Will markets suffer a 30% drop?Will markets suffer a 30% drop? The announcement of new U.S. tariffs caused a surprising wave of selling in financial markets, sparing no sector. The consequences of this decision have been shaken, and the market is now in a state of uncertainty. The uncertainty has also affected monetary policy expectations, with investors now predicting more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is evident from the collapse in the probability of the “no cut” scenario according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. To make matters worse, the recent ISM data showed a sharp decline in new orders, a worrisome sign for future economic growth. In addition, only 47 percent of companies listed in the S&P 500 are priced above their 200-day moving average, a level that in the past has been associated with average declines of 7.3 percent over the next 12 months. However, is it really justified to be so concerned? A major cause of the panic is the Atlanta Fed's forecast, which significantly revised downward its estimated growth for the current quarter. According to the GDPNow model, the annual increase went from +2.3 percent to -2.8 percent in just a few days. This dramatic revision has led many analysts to speak of a “Trumpcession,” pointing to a possible risk of recession under a new Trump administration. It is important to note that the Atlanta Fed's forecast is an exception to most current estimates. For example, the New York Fed's Nowcast model still forecasts annual growth of +2.9 percent in the first quarter, in line with previous expectations. This suggests that the sharp drop in the forecast could be influenced by temporary factors or specific calculation methods. Not long ago, the same model predicted +4.0% growth. Stock markets are in turmoil because of growing economic concerns. Technology stocks, which have been driving the stock market upward for years, are now among the main losers, with companies such as Nvidia and Tesla posting negative performances. The aviation sector is also coming under pressure, with companies such as Delta Airlines seeing sharp declines in profits due to economic uncertainty. The financial sector is under particular pressure as banks increase their reserves for potential loan losses, a sign that credit quality may deteriorate in the coming quarters. The volatility futures market is showing signs of concern as contracts maturing in March are more expensive than eight-month contracts. This “backwardation” has been present for four consecutive sessions and in the past has predicted long periods of impending turmoil. Historical facts have shown that when volatility futures remain in backwardation for more than five days, the market suffered further losses in the following month with an average of 4.5 percent. Hedge funds are adapting to the current economic situation and reducing their exposure to equities. Instead, they are focusing their investments on safer assets such as U.S. government bonds, highlighting strong pessimism among institutional investors. Goldman Sachs statistics also reflect this trend, with a reduction in exposure to stocks similar to that seen during the market crash in 2020. The history of financial markets has taught us that phases of volatility and panic are common and cyclical. Often, sudden fluctuations in economic expectations are driven by emotions rather than a rational response to hard data. It is important to note that the tariffs have not yet taken effect, so it is premature to draw firm conclusions about their impact on markets. My prediction is that the tariff war will not materialize and the United States will soon come to an agreement. In addition, it seems increasingly likely that the conflict in Ukraine will end soon and the FED's interest rates will fall, which will have a positive effect on the market in the next quarter. I predict that the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin will recover at least half of their losses in the coming weeks.
by Antonio_Ferlito
EURUSD Forms Bearish Triangle Ahead of Tariff AnnouncementAhead of today’s tariff announcement, EURUSD has formed a bearish triangle pattern. Among major instruments, EURUSD has been one of the least affected by tariff expectations in recent days. However, there is a short-term risk of a downside break. If the support near 1.0780 fails, EURUSD could retreat below 1.0750 before the announcement. In any case, traders should be prepared for sharp intraday reversals due to potential rumors and positioning ahead of Trump's statement.
Short
by ftdsystem
Market trapThe liquidity grab today was fake news, yes the price did indeed rise a lot but during market close I noticed the price briefly touched the supply zone listed but it closed below it, this Tells me people are demanding shorts at the 1.082-1.084 level and if you even look at the weekly the chart is bearish. If you look at any point in the euro’s history when price is bullish and the next angle is bearish with long wicks the price usually corrects like 100% of the time. The dxy still looks bullish and I’m confident will see 1.06 soon then the dxy will correct big time
Short
by christiansmithtrades
Euro Strengthens as Dollar Weakens !The Euro rose significantly against the US dollar during yesterday's session, Thursday, April 3, 2025, successfully breaching the resistance level at 1.09547 and establishing a new high above it. This upward movement followed the decision by the US president to impose tariffs on approximately 180 countries, significantly impacting the performance of the US dollar negatively. Currently, EUR/USD is experiencing a corrective downward movement that could extend towards the support level at 1.08211, considered an ideal point for resuming the bullish trend targeting the next level at 1.10490. The positive outlook remains valid unless the pair breaks below the critical support at 1.07331 with a daily candle closure beneath it. Such a scenario would invalidate the bullish scenario and strengthen bearish possibilities. Today, markets await the release of the US employment data, where the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline from 151K to 137K. A reading higher than expected could positively impact the dollar and negatively affect the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1%, and any decrease below this level would support the dollar, adding further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
by CFI
EURUSD Volatility Alert: Can It Sustain A Break of 2025 Highs?President Trump’s confirmation of the size and scope of his reciprocal tariffs last night at a much-anticipated ‘Liberation Day’ event in the rose garden at the White House has resulted in a broad wave of negative risk off sentiment which has seen global stock markets fall, and US indices especially come under severe pressure. This trade war escalation has also led to dollar selling overnight, with the US Dollar Index dipping over 1% to fresh 7 month lows, EURUSD and GBPUSD both trading to multi-month highs, while USDJPY and USDCHF have fallen. A reason for this move could be that traders and investors may now be increasingly concerned about the negative impact pursuing this tariff policy may have on the US economy, as global trading partners retaliate with tariff measures of their own on US imports. If that were to be the case, then the outcome of the US ISM Services PMI survey later today at 1500 BST and then tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls announcement, which is released at 1330 BST, could have a bearing on whether EURUSD continues this recent break above 2025 range highs at 1.0937/55, or falls back lower again. Both of these data releases could provide traders with an important health check on the current state of the US economy. EURUSD Technical Outlook Reaction to the latest news on US tariffs has seen USD selling pressure emerge, and this has resulted in an upside acceleration in EURUSD overnight and so far this morning. A move that is attempting to break and close above what traders may well be focusing as an important resistance area at 1.0937/55. This resistance area is equal to both the November 5th, 2024, and March 18th, 2025, recovery highs. Previously, these levels capped upside momentum which ultimately resulted in price weakness developing again. Meaning this area might be important if the current upside move in EURUSD is now able to break and close above this range, as it may be an indication buyers are beginning to gain the upper hand once more and might be able to push EURUSD to higher levels. However, it must be said, a confirmed closing break of this type of resistance is no guarantee of a more sustained phase of price strength, especially given the important economic data and retaliatory tariff updates that are due to be released. What are the Next Possible Resistance Levels if a Confirmed Upside Break Does Materialise? A successful confirmed break of the 1.0937/55 resistance area might be an indication that traders are starting to look at the possibility of higher levels. So let’s have a look at what these levels might be. As the chart above shows, a bounce failure high was established at 1.0997 on October 8th, 2024, which having previously held attempts at strength may do so again. That said, if this in turn was to give way, it could then be the September 25th high at 1.1214 that traders may look to as a potential important resistance level. What If the Current Price Strength Fails? As we have said, even if closes above the 1.0937/55 resistance area are seen, it is no guarantee of further upside moves. It is possible the current price strength may not be sustained, and fresh downside moves in price are seen again. As such, let's look at some potential downside support levels to monitor. The first support if a period of EURUSD price weakness now develops may be 1.0889, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upside strength. This may be an area that might limit future price declines. However, if a break below this potential support were to occur, risks may then turn towards a deeper decline to 1.0828, which is the 61.8% retracement, or if this level was broken, even back towards the March 27th, 2025, low at 1.0733. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EURUSD Tests 17-Year Long-Term Trend!!!After Trump announced an additional 20% in tariffs, EURUSD made a relatively surprising move and surged sharply. This marks the second leg of the upward trend that began in early March. However, the sharp rise has now brought EURUSD to the doorstep of a very long-term resistance level. Since testing 1.60 in 2008, EURUSD has been moving lower within a wide descending trend channel that has held for 17 years. Since 2015, the pattern has evolved into a wedge formation within this broader channel. The most recent test of this resistance came last year, but at the time, a weak Eurozone economy, crowded Euro long positions, and a hawkish Fed prevented a breakout. This time, the landscape is different. The Eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the ECB’s rate cuts appear to be nearing their end, and European countries have started to band together following a decline in confidence in their biggest ally and decide to increase technology, defence spending. Despite these developments, the medium-term effects of the new tariffs and the strength of the long-term resistance level are likely to prevent a clear breakout for now. Still, the long-term outlook is beginning to shift in favor of the euro, and a breakout later this year carries a significant probability.
by ftdsystem
EUR/USDEUR/USD is looking to break a streak of six consecutive down days after running into Fibonacci resistance at 1.0943. That pullback spanned more than 200 pips at its peak, with support finally showing up yesterday in the 1.0730-1.0750 zone previously highlighted. The question now is which trend will take over - as the prior bullish trend had quickly went overbought with RSI divergence showing into last Wednesday's FOMC meeting. For today, the 1.0800 level has capped bulls' advance and the next levels up are prior price swings at 1.0823 and 1.0861, followed by a Fibonacci extension at 1.0909 and then the longer-term Fibonacci level at 1.0943
by CecaRockefeller