USDEUR trade ideas
EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds Toward 1.1270The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend, trading around 1.1195, supported by a weakening US Dollar following softer-than-expected US inflation data for April. Headline CPI rose just 2.3% YoY—its lowest since February 2021—while core CPI held steady at 2.8%, matching forecasts.
Additionally, Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to concerns over fiscal deficits and rising debt has further pressured the greenback—the USD Index dropped 0.6%.
In the near term, EUR/USD is expected to extend gains if it breaks above the key resistance at 1.1270. However, risk remains if upcoming Federal Reserve speeches adopt a more hawkish tone, which could trigger a USD rebound.
Market participants are also watching Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), set to be released later today, for fresh direction.
💡 Short-Term Trade Scenarios:
BUY EURUSD: zone 1.11600 - 1.11450
SL: 1.11200
TP: 40 - 60 - 100pips
Buying Opportunities on EURUSDEURUSD continues to move exactly as expected.
On Friday, it bounced right off the 1,1140 level and is now looking to resume its bullish move.
The trend on the higher timeframes remains bullish, and that’s the direction we’ll be focusing on this week as well.
There are no major economic events scheduled for the USD, so we’re anticipating a relatively calm week.
Stick with the trend and manage your risk.
EUR IS DANGER!!!!We are in the final phase of a major correction that has been ongoing for over 10 years. Prepare for significant instability in this region!!!!!! And take care of yourselves.
The only way this scenario would be invalidated is if the 1.26 mark is crossed — which is highly unlikely.
EURUSD: Bearish Confirms Short OpportunityOn the Daily chart, EUR/USD is showing a clear downtrend, making short positions more aligned with the broader market direction.
EURUSD SELL/SHORTBy utilizing levels, historical patterns, , we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bearish sentiment prevails.
EURUSDBULLISH FLAG PATTERN IN PROGRESS
- Wait till it reaches the entry level
- Small divergence appeared but seems it will be diluted
EUR/USD Bearish Reversal? Eyes on 1.09 and 1.02 Next!EUR/USD is approaching a critical turning point after getting rejected at the 1.14431 - 1.13200 supply zone, identified by the LuxAlgo Supply & Demand tool on the 4H chart. The recent rally looks overstretched, and signs of exhaustion are starting to show.
Key Technical Levels:
Major Resistance: 1.13200 – 1.14431 (Strong sell zone – previous rejections evident)
Support 1: 1.09023 – a key breakout level turned support
Support 2: 1.02372 – major demand zone with significant accumulation history
Bearish Catalysts:
Price unable to break and close above 1.13200 cleanly
Lower high forming after a steep bullish move
Two major downward targets marked with arrows indicating possible retracements
Fundamental Watch:
Any hawkish comments from the Fed or dovish tone from ECB may accelerate the downside
Watch inflation data, Eurozone growth numbers, and NFP reports closely
Scenario: If we see a confirmed rejection and breakdown below 1.13000, short opportunities may open toward 1.0900 and possibly 1.0230 in the medium term.
What's your bias on EUR/USD? Comment below and let's analyze together!
#EURUSD #EuroDollar #ForexAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #LuxAlgo #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #ForexTrader
Title EURUSD - Could the Low Be in Place?EURUSD has recently been struggling for upside momentum as a reduction in trade tensions have boosted the dollar, and hopes for another ECB rate cut in June have weighed on the Euro.
This has seen a selloff in the world’s biggest FX pair from its 2025 highs at 1.1573 posted on April 21st, to a low of 1.1065 on May 12th, as US and China trade representatives outlined details of a significant reduction in tariffs on imports from each country, before eventually closing on Friday slightly higher at 1.1150.
Roll forward to the start of this new trading week and a downgrade to US government debt by rating agency Moody’s (last Friday) has seen a brief resurgence of the sell US assets trade, and while US stock indices recovered their initial losses into the close yesterday evening, the dollar has remained under pressure with EURUSD trading against a potential important technical level (more on this in the technical update below).
This leads us to ask the question, was the low seen on May 12th at 1.1065 a final capitulation of weak longs, and could a new up trend be developing again?
While further news flow on the topic of US government debt, including updates on progress through Congress of a Republican tax cut and spending bill, may continue to dominate the direction of EURUSD across the rest of the week, sentiment could also be impacted by Thursday's release of the May forward looking PMI surveys from the Eurozone (0900 BST) and US (1445 BST), which will provide traders with an insight into the current health of these two major economies.
The current technical outlook may also be important.
Technical Update: Focus on Fibonacci Retracements
Interestingly, the sell-off into the May 12th low at 1.1065 did approach what might have been classed as a support level at 1.1056, marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March 27th to April 21st price strength.
As you can see from the chart below, it is the test of this price level that looks to have prompted the latest EURUSD recovery.
Resistance Focus:
Traders may well now be focusing on 1.1263, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 21st to May 12th 2025 price weakness, a level that was successful in holding, on a closing basis, yesterday’s attempt to push to higher price levels.
That said, successful closing breaks above 1.1263 while no guarantee of further price strength, might leave some traders looking for an extension of the current upside move, with the next resistance potentially standing at 1.1381, which is the higher 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Support Focus: What if 1.1263 Caps Further Gains?
It is equally possible the 1.1263 Fibonacci retracement resistance can continue to hold, even turn price activity lower once more.
With this in mind, we should perhaps monitor support at 1.1171, which is equal to half the latest recovery move. Closing breaks below this level might then lead to a more extended phase of price weakness towards the 1.1056 retracement support, possibly further if this in turn were to give way.
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Europe’s Political Powder Keg: Markets on Edge!🔥 Europe’s Political Powder Keg: Markets on Edge! 🔥
Europe’s elections just dropped a BOMB! 💣 Poland (May 18), Portugal (May 18), and Romania (May 4 & 18) rejected far-right surges, but the center’s crumbling. 🇪🇺 Poland’s pro-EU Trzaskowski barely leads—June 1 runoff could flip it! Portugal’s Chega is shaking the old guard, and Romania’s Nicușor Dan rides an anti-corruption wave.
Why care? Political chaos = market volatility. 📉 EUR/USD is wobbling, DAX could tank, and defense stocks (🇺🇦 ties) are in play.
💡 Trade Idea: Overlay EUR/USD with election dates (May 4, May 18, June 1) to catch volatility spikes.
❓ What’s your move? Will Europe’s turmoil crash markets or spark a rally? Drop your take below! 👇
Price Retreat to Close Opening GapPrice on the EUR/USD gapped up on the week opening and accelerated upwards unencumbered after a long morning consolidation period. I expect to see a pull back towards the daily point of control towards the existing gap.
EUR/USD Analysis – Bearish Continuation Setup (Wave (5) in ProgrTimeframe: 15m
Date: May 18, 2025
Tools Used: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, SNR Zones, Awesome Oscillator (AO)
Bias: Bearish
Confluence Zone for Entry: 1.618 – 2.618 Fib Extension
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
🌀 Elliott Wave Count:
We are currently tracking a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure on EUR/USD.
Wave (1), (2), and (3) have been completed.
Price is now forming a corrective Wave (4) which appears to be completing near a key SNR zone and Fibonacci confluence area.
Based on the wave structure and market behavior, Wave (5) is expected to follow after this correction completes, targeting a new lower low.
📏 Fibonacci Confluence:
Wave (4) retracement aligns with several Fibonacci extension levels:
1.618 (1.11663) – This is the first key resistance zone, coinciding with prior support turned resistance (SNR) and the AO convergence point.
2.618 (1.11892) – Acts as the extended potential reversal point if price overshoots the 1.618 zone.
These fib zones create a tight area of interest for potential entries with stop-loss placement above 2.618, targeting Wave (5) completion near 1.1120 or below.
🧱 SNR (Support & Resistance) Zone:
The area between 1.11600 – 1.11900 has historically acted as a supply zone. Price reacted sharply from here during prior bearish moves.
Break of microstructure around 1.11464 – 1.11428 would further confirm bearish intent and potential early Wave (5) entry.
📉 AO (Awesome Oscillator) – Bearish Convergence (H1 + M15):
There is a clear bearish convergence on both H1 and M15:
Price formed lower lows, while AO histogram also made higher lows, indicating momentum is still bearish despite the corrective bounce.
This convergence supports the idea that Wave (4) is just a temporary correction, not a trend reversal.
🎯 Trade Plan (Hypothetical Example):
Sell Zone (Entry): Between 1.11663 – 1.11892 (Fib 1.618 to 2.618 + SNR zone)
Confirmation: Bearish structure break (1.11464 – 1.11428)
Stop Loss: Above 1.11920 (just above 2.618 level)
Target: 1.11200 area (Wave (5) projection)
📌 Summary:
This setup offers a clean multi-confluence short opportunity, aligning with:
Elliott Wave structure (Wave (5) pending)
Fibonacci extensions (1.618 – 2.618)
SNR resistance zone
AO bearish convergence on both H1 and M15
⚠️ Wait for structural confirmation and always manage risk carefully.
Traders should wait for confirmation from price action (e.g. a break below 1.11428) before entering. Risk management is essential as fib extensions can occasionally overshoot before price turns.
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#FibConfluence #SNRZone #PriceAction #BearishSetup #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis
#SmartMoney #StructureBreak #ForexSetup #MomentumTrading #MultiTimeframeAnalysis
#FXTrading #MarketStructure #ShortOpportunity
Can look for Shorts on EuroTrade wisely as per your R-R
Daily close is satisfied
Market must be testing the demand zone
Market next move
1. Support Zone Validation
Observation: Price is reacting from a labeled “Support area.”
Disruption: The support zone is based on very recent price action with limited prior structure. No confirmed double bottom, bullish engulfing, or strong rejection candle is present to confirm it as strong support yet.
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2. Volume Context Ignored
Observation: Volume has declined during recent candles.
Disruption: A genuine reversal from support typically comes with a volume spike. The current volume profile shows weakening participation, which questions the strength of the bounce.
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3. Premature Long Target Projection
Observation: A bullish arrow targets the 1.134–1.135 zone.
Disruption: This target is overly optimistic given the lack of a trend change signal. Price is still in a clear lower-high and lower-low structure, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact unless a breakout above 1.1300 occurs.
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4. Bearish Scenario Underdeveloped
Observation: Only a single red arrow shows bearish rejection.
Disruption: There is no defined breakdown zone or bearish continuation pattern shown (e.g., flag or wedge). If support breaks, price could rapidly move to 1.1200, but this scenario is underrepresented.
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5. No Confirmation Candlestick for Bullish Entry
Observation: A bullish move is anticipated from current levels.
Disruption: The current candle structure does not confirm bullish control—no hammer, engulfing, or clear reversal pattern. Entering long here could be premature without that confirmation.
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6. Lack of EMA or RSI Confluence
Observation: Analysis is purely price-action based.
Disruption: No exponential moving averages (EMAs) or RSI are shown to validate trend change. These tools could help confirm divergence or trend reversal.
EURUSD Shows Signs of Reversal as Momentum Shifts HigherThe EURUSD is beginning to show signs of a reversal as momentum shifts and moves above its 10-day exponential moving average. The EURUSD has recently experienced a significant move since early February, rising to a high of 1.147, which resulted in it becoming overbought, touching its upper Bollinger band, and pushing the RSI above 70. Now, after a brief pullback, the EURUSD appears poised to make another push higher.
The EURUSD has now moved above its 10-day exponential moving average and its 20-day simple moving average. Additionally, it appears to have broken above a minor downtrend that began on 28 April. If this momentum continues, EURUSD could rise back towards resistance at the upper Bollinger band, around 1.145, and perhaps even retest the 1.157 peak seen on 21 April.
Perhaps more importantly, a short-term trend reversal is underway, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above a short-term downtrend that started on 21 April. If this trend break holds, it would indicate that the recent decline in EURUSD has likely ended, setting the stage for another move higher.
Also supporting a potential rebound and move higher is the successful bounce of EURUSD off its 38.2% retracement level, measured from the lows established on 3 February to the highs of 21 April. Combined with the factors mentioned earlier, this suggests the next move for EURUSD is likely upwards.
However, if support fails to hold and EURUSD falls below 1.105, it could decline further towards the next support at 1.075, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level from the 3 February lows.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Short EURUSDEURUSD will fall for a short term and might test the support at 1.2260. when every buys , sell !!!
thanks
EURUSD Technical Analysis.This chart shows a trading setup for the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of what's illustrated:
Current Price: Around 1.12729 at the time of the chart.
Support Zone: Highlighted by the rectangular black box between roughly 1.12436 and 1.12700.
Stop Loss (SL): Marked at 1.12400, just below the support zone.
Target: Around 1.13104, shown in the green shaded area, suggesting a bullish outlook.
Trade Idea:
A potential buy (long) setup is suggested if price holds above the support zone.
Price may retrace slightly within the zone before moving upward toward the target.
If price breaks below 1.12400, the setup is invalid (hence the SL).
This is a classic long trade setup based on price action support and resistance analysis. Let me know if you’d like help analyzing the setup further or converting it into a trade plan.
EurusdLooking for bearish opportunities as we broke below the previous uptrend. Then we have a continuation pattern to the downside
EURUSDEURUSD
- Bullish Channel as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
- Break of Structure
- S / R Level
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
- Order Block
EURUSD INTRADAY bulish breakout supported at 1.1100EUR/USD remains in a long-term bullish trend, but price action has been consolidating sideways since reaching the recent swing high on April 21, 2025.
The key support level to watch is 1.1100. This is the current swing low and a critical level for the bullish structure to hold. If the pair pulls back and finds support here, a rebound could lead to upside targets at 1.1275, then 1.1356, and eventually 1.1460 over the longer term.
However, if the price breaks below 1.1100 and closes below that level on the daily chart, the bullish outlook would be invalidated. In that case, further downside could follow, with 1.1030 as the next support, and then 1.0990.
In conclusion, EUR/USD remains bullish above 1.1100, but a confirmed break below that level would shift the outlook to bearish in the short term.
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EURUSD Bearish Setup: Gartley on Weekly, Breakdown on 4HEURUSD has formed a Gartley pattern on the weekly timeframe, suggesting a potential drop toward 1.01 or even lower.
Additionally, on the 4-hour chart, it has broken out of an ascending channel and, after a pullback to the broken level, is currently declining. This bearish move appears likely to continue.
