EURUSD is in play as investors shift from the dollarEuro remains to be in focus along with other assets, as US markets lose attractiveness among investors, especially from China, who start to put more focus on European and Japanese bonds rather than US treasuries. The Euro had little to no reaction to the decline of the interest rate from the ECB: on the one hand, this rate cut was already priced in, on the other - the market didn't initiate any sell-offs despite the “weak” news for the Euro.
That points to a particularly strong sentiment for this currency, despite some cooling down of volumes on CME futures. Open interest for Euro Forex futures contracts, though, remains steady. The net position of commercial traders is dipping, but still far from the historical low.
Technically, the position of the price is higher than 3 daily volatility levels (ATRs) from the 20-day moving average on the daily chart, which makes this instrument a “momentum play”, and may lead to a further extension to the upside - presumably, after holidays.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
USDEUR trade ideas
Long-term bullish breakout on EUR/USD!Hey traders,
Let’s dive into some weekly price action on EUR/USD and uncover what the charts are really telling us. 📈
🔍 Key observations (weekly Chart):
Major breakout:
Two weeks ago, EUR/USD printed a strong bullish candle that broke and closed above a critical resistance zone, the July 2023 high and September 2024 high.
➡️ This marks a bullish structural shift on the higher timeframe.
Bullish inside bar:
Last week's candle was also bullish but formed an inside bar, closing within the previous candle’s range and failing to break the high.
➡️ This suggests consolidation, not rejection.
🧠 What it means:
✅ The break above multi-month highs signals strength and long-term bullish momentum.
✅ The inside bar can be viewed as a pause or healthy retest rather than weakness.
✅ Likely, price is accumulating orders before a new push higher.
📅 Weekly bias: bullish continuation
Here’s why:
The break and close above key structure is a big deal.
Consolidation after such a breakout is normal and often precedes continuation.
As long as price stays above the broken highs, the bias is firmly bullish.
🔔 What to watch next:
✅ A break and close above last week's high = strong bullish continuation signal.
🔁 A dip into the broken resistance (now support) + bullish rejection = a solid buy opportunity.
⚖️ There’s a price imbalance just below last week’s low, price could dip into it before taking off again.
💬 Final thoughts:
The long-term trend is shifting. This is not the time to fade strength, but rather to look for high-probability entries on pullbacks.
📢 If this breakdown helped you, don’t forget to boost the idea and follow for more weekly updates!
HelenP. I Euro can make correction movement to $1.1150 pointsHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. After testing the upper boundary of the ascending channel, the price showed signs of slowing momentum. Earlier, the price steadily climbed within the upward channel, forming consistently higher lows while bouncing from the lower trend line and support zones. During its rally, the price also reclaimed the 1.0950 level, turning it into a solid support zone, and continued higher with minor consolidations along the way. Eventually, the pair reached the resistance trend line at the top of the channel, where sellers began to show activity. This zone aligned with previous local highs and acted as a point of reversal. Following the rejection from the top boundary, the Euro formed a local high and started to flatten, indicating reduced bullish pressure. Now the price is trading slightly below the resistance trend line and remains inside the upward channel. Given the current structure and the latest price action near the upper edge, I expect a downward movement from this zone. My current goal is the 1.1150 points, which aligns with the midline of the channel and a key technical level from recent consolidation. This bearish scenario is supported by the reaction from the upper boundary and the potential for correction within the channel range. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD Analysis - Weekly Market Analysis This is my weekly market analysis, specifically for EURUSD
I share what I think is going to happen in terms of the PDA Matrix as it pertains to ICT concepts, as well as time considerations such as economic news events.
I hope you find it insightful in your trading.
- R2F Trading
Playing the continuation longAlways trying to keep things simple:
Trend if clearly UP and it's not showing sign of weakness so far. So until that changes, I'll be looking to enter a long at a discount.
Right now we over extended quite a bit especially on monday 21st during the easter holiday with low volume. And today (22nd) was an eventless day with no important news and while we had a tweet from bessent about china's deal, it wasn't really anything important at all.
So given all of that, we could expect a pullback and most likely a bit more of a pullback tomorrow.
Now we have two possibilities for the continuation in my opinion.
Either the previous week range was the consolidation needed for the price to make the next leg up and we're just gonna tap into that liquidity before moving back up (in which case an entry around the weekly pivot at 1.136, right below the golden zone from last week range to yesterday's highs fib with a great support at the 4H gap at 1.129 on the weekly R1 to limit our risk.
Or second option is a deeper retracement back into a much stronger confluence (but also less likely to happen) at the weekly support which happens to coincide with a bit daily FVG, weekly R3 and the golden zone from the fib from before the big impulse up we just had until now:
That would take us all the way down to 1.115 (not in a straight line though) which is why I said it's the less likely scenario.
That being said, if we were to go down all the way there I would definitely take a stab long at that level for a great risk:reward potential.
With those two options on the table I'll just wait for a sign of reversal on the LTF before going in either of those trades but we can see on the 1h chart that the RSI is forming a hidden bullish divergence already so things are looking alright for the first idea.
I'll try to post more updates as we get to the entry and see if I take the trade.
I want to mention one very important thing in this idea though:
those are VERY trying times for any traders, be it in stock, forex, crypto or even investors.
It's a fact and bear markets/volatile markets are notoriously hard to navigate.
You might have the right idea but get stopped before price going for your target despite using proper SL management at proper levels etc as any news/tweet can take you out in an instant in a news driven environment.
What I'm trying to say is: do not trade in the coming days/weeks if you don't have to.
Practice, paper trade, have fun with a cheap prop firm challenge to limit the risk to a couple dozen bucks etc.
I trade for a living so I have to keep going but it is a lot harder even if you try to trade with the trend and apply the rules that makes you profitable for years.
April so far is a red month for me (down about 2.5%), the first red since march of last year, that says a lot. It's fine and I'm not worried, but using proper risk management and knowing when to stay out is just as important as charting and finding out ideas, especially during those times. That's why I'm only down a few thousands instead of blowing up or wiping months of progress.
Things will calm down in due time and it will be a lot easier with price respecting levels, not running away at every opportunity and not retesting breakout levels etc etc. Those are much easier time to make a lot of money despite having lower volatility and less pips/day moves.
Be patient and consistent, now is not the time to look for new trading strategies, youtube gurus, magical indicators or whatnot!
Good luck to you all traders out there!
E/U Bullish E/U has been on a bullish Momentum Trend.
Structures has been broken.
We now expect price to get back to where it instituted the buys(Demand Zone) before we now scouting for a Buy to the SwingHigh(Supply Zone)as our TP📈
Remember,be Patient and see what the market will place on our face for entry 📈
EURUSD 21/4/25Good morning, team. Welcome to the first trading session of the week. We’re looking at Euro/USD this morning, and we’re expecting price action to deliver further bullish movement. Last week, we called for bullish movement from the area where price was sitting, and we saw a beautiful expansion through the highs.
Now, of course, last week ended with a bank holiday on Friday in the UK, and we also have a bank holiday today. This means price may be looking to restructure and pull back into more desirable pricing. As a result, we could see a slowdown in bullish momentum and a possible pullback.
As always, we don’t expect pullbacks as a certainty, but given the current information, anticipating one is a reasonable idea—especially since our entries can only occur at lower levels. We remain bullish and expect price action to continue upward, so we shouldn't focus on selling this market. Instead, we should anticipate entering from more desirable zones.
Note that the COT data is long on this pair. There’s also a large amount of liquidity resting at the base of this run. As always, if short-term lows are formed between the most recent high and the last significant move, we could look for a short-term move into a potential new high—if bullish movement continues. This means watching the hourly timeframe for potential entry zones.
Keep an eye on the high-volume lows at the base of this move and expect, as mentioned above, long setups to develop later this week.
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.5500 back down My analysis this week is quite similar to GU. I’ll be looking for short opportunities to target a demand zone below current price. We’ve seen consolidation over the past week, which has built liquidity on both sides—and it's only a matter of time before that liquidity is swept.
What I’ll be watching for is a reaction at the current supply, where I’ll wait for price to slow down and distribute, giving us an opportunity to catch a retracement down toward a key area of interest for buys. If price reaches 1.12000 or lower, I’ll be looking for signs of accumulation and potential longs from there.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
- The DXY has been bearish, but is approaching a demand zone, which could cause a reversal—aligning with EU shorts.
- A strong weekly supply zone is in play, which could trigger a bearish reaction.
- Plenty of liquidity and imbalances lie to the downside, ready to be cleared.
- A retracement is likely, considering the extended bullish momentum recently.
- Current consolidation suggests a breakout is near, and this supply zone is my nearest POI for shorts.
P.S. Stay flexible—once the consolidation breaks, assess how price behaves. Don’t lock yourself into one bias; always be prepared to adapt to what the market shows you.
Wave 5 Completed – Time to Ride the Correction!"Structure Overview
Wave Count: You’ve marked the end of wave (5), indicating a potential trend reversal or correction.
Bearish Setup:
Price rejected the orange supply zone post wave (5), suggesting bearish pressure.
Entry appears to be near the top of the small pullback into that zone.
Target is set near the larger demand zone around 1.12274.
Right-Side Box (Key Idea Summary):
Suggests a range-bound market, followed by:
A lower high into a new supply zone (brown box).
A sharp drop into a deeper demand zone at the base (green zone).
Key Price Levels:
Resistance/Supply: 1.14153, 1.15205
Support/Demand: 1.12274, lower box near 1.11400
Possible Strategy:
Sell setup: Look for confirmation candles or patterns near the orange/brown zones.
Target: Previous demand zone or lower if structure breaks.
SL: Above the orange/red zone to manage risk.
EURUSD Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1506
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1409
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Euro H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1426 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.1583 which is a level that sits a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.1274 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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EUR-USD Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is making a bearish
Correction but the pair will soon
Hit a horizontal support level
Of 1.1231 from where we
Will be expecting a local
Bullish rebound and a move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD – A New High Potentially in Sight?The pullback seen in EURUSD at the start of this week, which resulted in a low of 1.1264 being registered on Tuesday may have been a natural reaction to the spike from 1.0943 on Thursday 10th April, up to 1.1473 on Friday 11th April. A quick and relentless rally (low to high) of 4.8% that caught many by surprise.
Now, against the backdrop of fresh dollar selling due to a new series of tariff headlines from the Trump administration on Wednesday, the most prominent being the ban on Nvidia from exporting certain chips to China, EURUSD has started to move back towards 1.14 again with the all-important rate decision due later today at 1315 BST.
The ECB are expected to cut interest rates by another 25bps, so anything else may be a seen as a surprise. This decision could be a close call given that the ECB committee seem to be split, with some more worried about supporting the economy through this period of trade war uncertainty, while others are more focused on the potential for trade tariffs to push inflation back higher.
Whatever the decision, the press conference, led by ECB President Lagarde, which starts at 1345 BST could also be a focal point for EURUSD volatility as traders try and glean what they can from Madame Lagarde on whether more rate cuts are possible at the next meeting in June, her thoughts on inflation, recent Euro strength and the Eurozone economy.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Long Term Resistance Significant?
The current year to date phase of EURUSD price strength has seen an impressive 12.6% advance from the January low into the latest April high (1.0184 to 1.1473).
However, what technical analysts are now beginning to focus on is the world's most heavily traded currency pair recent close above 2 potentially key resistance points on the weekly chart that coincide at 1.1275/1.1278.
These points are equal to a combination of the July 2023 high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2021 to September 2022 price decline (see chart above).
While this is no guarantee of sustained phase of price strength it might well be an indication of further attempts to push towards higher levels.
Potential Resistance Levels We Now Need to Monitor
What the weekly chart above does show is that the latest strength has approached a previous failure high at 1.1494, which was posted in February 2022. Traders may well be focusing on this level next, as closing breaks of this resistance point might suggest current EURUSD strength may carry further.
Such moves could in turn lead to a more sustained phase of price strength, with the next resistance point to consider marked by the October 2022 upside extreme at 1.1691.
Potential Support Levels We Now Need to Monitor
After such an extended period of price strength over a relatively short period of time there may be potential for over-extended upside price conditions to lead to the price corrections.
With this in mind, it is the perhaps the daily EURUSD chart that might offer clues to possible support levels.
Running Fibonacci retracements on the latest phase of price strength seen between April 4th and April 10th, we see the 38.2% retracement at 1.1244, has remained intact within this week’s latest trading activity.
Any potential breaks below this level, while not suggesting a negative shift in sentiment, may prompt a deeper decline in EURUSD prices towards 1.1175, which is the 50% retracement, even 1.1106, which is the 61.8% retracement level, as seen on the chart above.
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EURUSD LIVE TRADE AND EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWNEUR/USD remains offered around 1.1350
EUR/USD trades well on the defensive for the second day in a row, revisinting the mid-1.1300s on the back of the continuation of the upside impulse in the US dollar. The move followed firmer US PMI data and news indicating the White House may be considering tariff cuts on Chinese imports.
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1278
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1149
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1428
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD SHORT EDUCATIONAL BREAKDWON
EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1400 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD struggles to gather recovery momentum but holds steady above 1.1400 on Wednesday following the mixed PMI data releases for the Eurozone and Germany. Markets await comments from central bankers and US PMI data.
EURUSD potential trendline breakout (LONG)Trading plan
Follow the trend
Bullish momentum
Enter long on confirmed trend line breakout
Confirm with bullish daily candle momentum
Price above its key Moving averages
Risk Management
Stop loss below recent swing low
Risk 1-2% of capital per trade
Calculate position size accordingly
Targets
Target 1: 1:1 risk-reward
Target 2: 1.5x risk or resistance level
Target 3: 2x risk or major resistance