EURUSD BUY PROJECTION EURUSD has the been in an uptrend after the breakout and CHOCH from the downtrend to uptrend. I expect price to retrace back to the 50% retracement zone of the Fibonacci channel and go long.
USDEUR trade ideas
Sensing bullish trading opportunityBuy above 1.0940 with SL at 1.0910. TP1 at 1.0990, TP2 at 1.1020.
EURUSD: Bearish Bias Remains 🇪🇺🇺🇸
The resistance that we discussed on EURUSD yesterday holds
and the market nicely retraced from that.
The pair now has a potential to drop even lower,
with a double top being formed on a 4H.
Next goal: 1.0853
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EUR/USD: Watch for a bullish setup on a dip Below 1.084The EUR/USD currency pair has recently shifted from a downward trend to a more upward trajectory after hitting a low of 1.076. Currently, it is trying to maintain a position above 1.08. In the near term, it is likely to rebound off a support zone between 1.08 and 1.084, with price targets set for 1.09 and 1.092.
EURO - Price can leave wedge and decline to support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price broke $1.0885 level and continued to decline inside falling channel, where it at once fell to support line.
Then price bounced to resistance line of channel and then declined to $1.0785 level and even broke it.
Price fell to support line, after which made upward impulse, thereby breaking $1.0785 level again and exiting from channel.
Next, Euro entered to wedge, made correction to support line, and then started to grow to resistance level.
A not long time ago, price reached this level, and some time traded near, but soon bounced down.
At the moment, I think EUR can make a rise movement and then fall to $1.0785 support level, exiting from the wedge.
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EURUSD: Fed`s decision weekThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge in the US, the PCE Price Index, was standing at 0,2% in September, bringing the index to 2,1% on a yearly basis. Figures were in line with market expectations. The Personal Income was higher by 0,3% in September while Personal Spending was increased by 0,5% a bit higher from market estimate of 0,4%. The Non-farm payrolls again surprised markets with data for October reaching only 12K. This was a significant drop from 223K posted for the previous month and significantly lower from 180K forecasted by market. Unemployment rate in October was unchanged at 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings were higher by 0,4% in October, leading to an yearly increase of 4%. As for other macro data published for the US, the GDP Growth rate in Q3 showed an acceleration of the US economy of 2.8% for the quarter, which was a bit lower from market forecast of 3%. The US House Price Index was higher by 0,3% in August, bringing the total increase of housing prices to 4,2% on a yearly basis. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October reached the level of 46,5, which was a bit lower from market consensus of 47,6.
The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in November was -18,3 which was a bit better from consensus of -20,5. Unemployment rate in Germany in October was higher by 0,1%, ending the month at 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate flash for Q3 was better than expected at the level of 0,2% for the quarter, while market expectations were standing at -0,1%. At the same time, GDP Growth rate on a yearly basis is still standing at the negative territory of -0,2%. The GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone in Q3 was at the level of 0,4%, and 0,9% on a yearly basis. Inflation rate in Germany, preliminary for October, was standing at 2% for the year, and 0,4% for the month, which was a bit higher from market expectations of 1,8% and 0,2%. At the same time, the inflation rate in the Euro Zone for the same period was standing at 2,0% for the year and 0,3% for the month. Core inflation remained elevated at the level of 2,7% y/y. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone remained flat in September at the level of 6,3%.
The currency pair was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, considering mixed macro data which was posted during the week. First half of the week, eurusd spent on a move from 1,08 support line and moved toward the highest weekly level at 1,09, a short term resistance line. Still, Friday's NFP was a huge surprise for markets, when the eurusd reverted back, ending the week at the level of 1,0834. The RSI reached its maximum weekly level at 45, indicating that the market is still not ready to cross the 50 line and start its move toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continues with its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between lines, but also an indication that the cross might occur within a few weeks.
The week ahead has the potential to be one of the most stressful trading weeks of the year. First, US Presidential elections are due on November 5th, which would certainly make markets react in line with an election outcome. Two days later, on November 7th, the Fed will decide on the further course of interest rates. Fed moves always imply higher market reactions, which implies that the week ahead might be one with higher market moves to one or both sides. Current charts are clearly showing that the market is uncertain which side to trade. On one side, there is some probability that the level of the 1,08 support line could be tested for one more time. There is also an indication for the resistance line at 1,10. Still, this level could be reached within a week or two, not necessarily in the week ahead. For the following week the much probable level could be 1,09, eventually 1,095. However, as previously noted, any surprises during the week, might trigger high volatility, so trading precaution is highly recommended.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, HCOB Services PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, Balance of Trade for Germany in September, Industrial Production in Germany for September,
USD: ISM Services PMI for October, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference after the FOMC meeting, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
EURUSD Nov 4, 2024This is alt count, but tom we have an event that is not purely priced in, imo.
Take care, use stops.
All currencies appearing in this post are fictitious.
Any resemblance to real currencies, existing or dead, is purely coincidental.
Week of NewsThis week is expected to bring major market movements due to upcoming news events.
Tomorrow, the U.S. presidential election takes place, and on Thursday, the Federal Reserve (FED) will announce the interest rate.
During times like these, it’s important to decide whether to trade and, if you do, what level of risk to use.
Market movements during elections can be extremely large and unpredictable.
Once the direction is set, there may be good entry opportunities.
EUR/USD 06/11/2024EUR/USD 06/2024 this is my analyse let me know what you think about this one seeyalater bye bye
EURUSD at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?Hello Ben's great friends!
Currently, EURUSD is fluctuating about 1,0878 in the early morning session in Asia. The US dollar decreased slightly when traders prepare for the US presidential election and the possibility that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, supporting some support for the main currency pair.
Moreover, based on technical analysis, the price is approaching the strong support area (suitable for EMA 34.89). If this support level is maintained, it can act as a platform to increase prices.
What do you think about this view? Let me know your ideas.
Eurusd Monthly possible escenarioI think that Eurusd made a strong expanding diagonal since 1970 to 2008. ( rare but not impossible ) This diagonal was made only of corrective waves. Then , 2008 crisis began. Eurusd start it's bearish trend as what it seems also a Diagonal, but this time contractive ( wave A )
It seems to me that we are in the pullback of a shoulder head shoulder created from 2015 to 2022, and we haven't broke Bollinger upper band yet. Volume also confirms the breakout and bearish divergence usual in waves 5. We haven't reach 61.8 % fibo yet, and we hace strong liquidity in that area.
Is Eurusd ready to crash? Let's see....
EURO - Price can move up to resistance level and continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to falling channel, where some time declined near resistance line of channel.
Later it bounced and fell to support line of channel, but soon backed up to resistance line, after which continued to fall.
Soon, Euro broke $1.0840 level, which coincided with resistance zone, and exited from falling channel.
Then price started to trades inside flat, where it declined to support area and then bounced up to $1.0840 level.
After this, price made a correction and then backed up to this level, but recently started to decline.
In my mind, EUR can make movement up to resistance level and then continue to fall to $1.0765
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Key Levels to Confirm Bullish Reversal or Extend DowntrendEUR/USD Technical Analysis
The price is likely to attempt to reach 1.0915 from the pivot line, with the possibility of a retest down to 1.0832 before initiating a bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario: If the price remains below 1.0772, this would indicate a continuation of the downtrend towards the support level at 1.0680.
Bullish Scenario: A break and a sustained move above 1.0865 could confirm a bullish move toward 1.0915, with further potential to reach 1.1005, signaling upward momentum.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 1.0830
Support Lines: 1.0770, 1.0680, 1.0618
Resistance Lines: 1.0915, 1.1000, 1.1082
Trend Outlook:
Bearish by stability under 1.0772
Bullish by stability above 1.0830
EURUSD price increaseThe reactions of the euro against the dollar have been excellent, the US, with its strengthening, caused a one-month drop in other currencies such as the euro, but this increase will only last until the announcement of the election results, and will ultimately cause the dollar to fall and the price of other currencies to rise, in the analysis The return of the euro price has been determined and I had announced the fall of the dollar in previous analyzes
Sasha Charkhchian
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the resistance area 1.09508.Dear Colleagues. I have redrawn the waves and it seems that the price has not reached the minimum values yet. Apparently wave “4” is the longest correction we have had recently.
According to the data, the price tends to the area of strong resistance at 1.07575. This will be the completion of the corrective wave “C”. Then I would still like to see an upward movement with a renewal of the upper levels. At a minimum, I expect to reach the 1.09508 area.
A more risky entry into a long position is possible - from current levels.
And a more conservative entry is possible - from the area of 1.07575.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
The Loss Effect: Why Traders Hold On To Losing Positions📍 In the realm of trading, the psychological weight of losses often outweighs the thrill of gains. This phenomenon, known as loss aversion , refers to the innate human tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. Within the context of financial markets, this bias can lead traders to stubbornly cling to losing positions, driven by the hope that market conditions will eventually shift in their favor. Consequently, their focus often shifts away from the potential for profit to a preoccupation with preserving their existing capital.
📍 Reasons Traders Avoid Closing Losing Trades
Several psychological factors contribute to traders’ decisions to retain losing trades:
1. Emotional Attachment
Traders are not immune to the emotions that accompany financial decisions. When individuals invest in an asset, they often form an emotional bond with that investment. Experiencing a loss can feel like a personal defeat, stirring feelings of shame, frustration , and anger. This emotional attachment can cloud judgment and impede rational decision-making. Rather than assessing the asset’s current market value objectively, traders may cling to the hope that conditions will improve, in an effort to circumvent the distress associated with acknowledging a loss.
2. Fear of Realizing a Loss
The psychology of loss is complex, with many traders perceiving the act of realizing a loss as more painful than the prospect of missing out on potential gains. This fear can compel traders to hold on to losing positions, hoping that the market will rebound to their initial entry points. By postponing the realization of a loss, they believe they can mitigate its emotional impact. However, this paradoxical reasoning often leads to extended periods in losing positions, even as downward trends become increasingly pronounced.
3. Lack of Confidence in Their Strategy
Traders often rely on specific strategies or analyses when making investment decisions. When the market begins to turn against them, a sense of doubt regarding the validity of their strategy can emerge. This internal conflict can make it challenging for a trader to acknowledge a mistake. Instead of reevaluating their positions and accepting the reality of a loss, they may irrationally hold onto failing trades, hoping for an unexpected turnaround—an approach that typically exacerbates their situation.
4. Challenges with Objective Analysis
Emotional responses can significantly hinder traders’ ability to conduct objective analyses of their positions. Important data and market signals indicating a need to exit a position may be ignored, leading to cognitive dissonance. This disconnect between emotion and analysis often causes traders to remain in unprofitable trades far longer than warranted, despite clear evidence suggesting the necessity of a change in strategy.
5. Cognitive Distortions
Traders are susceptible to a variety of cognitive distortions that can cloud their judgment:
⚫️ Selective Attention: Many traders may emphasize their winning trades while minimizing the importance of their losses. This selective focus can result in a failure to adequately analyze losing positions, leading to the selection bias known as " cherry-picking ."
⚫️ Confirmation Bias: This cognitive bias leads traders to seek out and prioritize information that reaffirms their initial decisions, while disregarding contradictory evidence. As a result, they may grow increasingly reluctant to close losing positions, insisting on data that supports their original decision to invest.
📍 Conclusion: To Hold or Not to Hold Losing Positions?
Deciding whether to maintain or close a losing position ultimately hinges on one's tolerance for losses. If a stock continues to decline in value without signs of recovery, persisting in holding it may be misguided; in such cases, it may be more prudent to exit and then consider purchasing at a more favorable price. However, it is equally ill-advised to close positions at the slightest market correction. The crux of the matter lies in understanding the underlying reasons for the loss. If no fundamental issues exist and the downturn appears temporary—especially when the loss aligns with typical statistical drawdowns—there may be no need to exit the position prematurely. Ultimately, a balanced approach involving emotional detachment and a keen awareness of market dynamics can aid traders in making more informed and strategically sound decisions regarding their positions.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
EURUSD DepreciationPrice of the Euro against the Dollar has steadily depreciated over the course of 15 years, beginning its's decline with the global financial crisis back in 2008. Many fundamental factors have contributed to this price action, and likely this downtrend will continue for the foreseeable future, as the European Union is an inherently flawed system, and the USD retains its status as the world reserve currency.
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all here. Please share your personal opinions in the comments, and don’t forget to like and subscribe.
Key Points
- U.S. employment data shock: Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 12,000 in October.
- The weak U.S. employment data is attributed to the effects of a hurricane and the Boeing strike.
- The market anticipates it will be challenging for the Fed to avoid a 25 basis point rate cut in the November FOMC meeting.
- Germany’s October CPI rose 2.0% year-on-year, rebounding after three months.
- The Eurozone’s October CPI also increased by 2.0% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 1.9%.
- The U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 2.6%.
Major Economic Indicators
- November 5: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, U.S. presidential election
- November 7: Bank of England rate decision
- November 8: FOMC meeting results
EUR/USD Trend Analysis
The Euro appears to have successfully rebounded from the lower support level. This upward trend is expected to reach the 1.10000 line. In the long term, a rise to the trend high of 1.14000 is anticipated; however, resistance at the 1.10000 line may lead to a short-term pullback.
If, contrary to expectations, a stronger downward move occurs and breaks below 1.07500, the price may fall to the 1.04500 line, in which case a new strategy will be quickly established.
EURUSD Will Move Higher! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 1.083.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.099 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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EUR/USD HUGE UPDATE | Trump USD Effect To Last?As results come in, USD strength has slapped the EURUSD down lower, as it has across as other major USD pairs.
We know there has been recent ECB hawk rhetoric about a careful lowering of rates, and that sentiment still exists. We just hit a major Price Action level to the downside also feeding into some short profit taking / long side new entries.
The Trump factor is because it is believed rates may also lower in the US slower than expected due to an inflationary effect.
So, that creates more of an even keel.
Long bias therefore in proportion with risk level overall. Looking for decent moves to the upside to trend trade, should reversal occur.
EURUSD Down Trend ContinuationEURUSD has opened with an upward gap and is moving toward a significant resistance zone within a larger bearish trend. If the market meets resistance here and rejects both the resistance zone and the upper border of the descending channel, it may indicate an impending bearish reversal. Historically, this level has acted as a strong resistance, with price bouncing off it multiple times, which reinforces the likelihood of another rejection.
There is potential for a push above last week’s high as an initial move to gather liquidity, followed by a bearish reversal aiming to fill the recent gap. If this scenario unfolds, the target would be the support zone around 1.08510, aligning with the gap-filling objective and providing a solid level for further downside momentum
Lingrid | EURUSD Hits DEMAND Zone with LONG PotentialFX:EURUSD has reached the demand zone from which the price surged in August. The market experienced a fake breakout at the 1.078000 level, which may suggest a potential pullback. I believe the market could retrace towards the resistance level because it is maybe overextended, and the TVC:DXY has also reached a key resistance zone. On the 4H timeframe, the market has formed a bullish divergence, indicating a possible correction in the market. My target is resistance zone around 1.09190
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Yearly Support areaWill the price manage to respect the yearly support area, or its the 4th subwave over yet and we will continue to finish wave 3?
