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USDEUR trade ideas

SMC Mechanical Entry Models✅ SMC Checklist: 1. Market Structure 🔹 Identify HTF Trend (H4 or H1): bullish, bearish, or range 🔹 Confirm Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) on M15–M5 🔹 Look for lower highs/lows (downtrend) or higher highs/lows (uptrend) 2. Liquidity Zones 🔹 Look for equal highs/lows (liquidity pools) 🔹 Asian highs/lows — common targets during London/NY session 🔹 Recent internal range liquidity 🔹 Trendline liquidity — fakeouts often occur here 3. Premium & Discount Zones (PD Arrays) 🔹 Use Fibonacci from recent swing high to low 🔹 Look for entries at Discount (Longs) or Premium (Shorts) pricing 🔹 Ideal entries happen between 0.62–0.79 retracement 4. Supply & Demand Zones 🔹 Find fresh OBs (Order Blocks) that caused a break of structure 🔹 Use last bullish candle before strong drop (for short) or last bearish candle before strong rally (for long) 🔹 Confirm zone isn’t mitigated yet 5. Imbalance / Fair Value Gaps (FVG) 🔹 Identify large imbalanced candles (no wick overlap) 🔹 Ideal entries are inside the FVG aligned with direction 🔹 High probability if FVG is within OB or confluence with structure/liquidity 6. Confluences for Entry 🔹 Entry aligns with liquidity sweep or FVG/OB tap 🔹 Volume spike or rejection wick confirms interest 🔹 RSI divergence or exhaustion = bonus confirmation 🔹 Use M1/M5 for entry trigger after setup is formed on M15–H1 7. Entry Trigger 🔹 CHoCH or BOS on lower timeframe (M1-M5) 🔹 Confirmation with engulfing candle, FVG fill, or break/retest 🔹 SL below/above recent swing or OB boundary 8. TP/Exit Zones 🔹 TP1: After BOS/structure shift + partial 🔹 TP2: Next liquidity level (equal high/low or OB) 🔹 TP3: Opposite OB or major FVG 🔹 Adjust SL to breakeven after reaching TP1 9. Session Timing (Important) 🔹 Asian range → look for liquidity setup 🔹 London Open (3PM–6PM PH))→ manipulative move (liquidity grab) 🔹 NY Open (8PM–11PM PH) → continuation or reversal opportunity 🔹 Avoid high-impact news releases unless breakout 🔹 Use Forex Factory / MyFXBook for news calendar 10. Post-Trade Journaling: 🔹Screenshot HTF → LTF Setup (H4 > M15 > M1) 🔹Don’t skip journaling — it’s your #1 improvement tool.
Education
by jeniceinocentes
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1726 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1612 My Stop Loss - 1.1783 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 30 June - 4 JulyMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Eurozone Inflation, US Jobs, ISM PMIs, ECB Forum Updates In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode, we discuss: — Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash — US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate — US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI — ECB Forum on Central Banking Note: U.S. markets may see thin trading ahead of the 4 July holiday, raising volatility risks. Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI📉 EUR/USD – Weak Expectations, Neutral German CPI, and Bearish Momentum Ahead Bias: Short / Sell Setup EUR/USD recently surged toward the 1.0750 zone sooner than expected, driven more by market optimism and speculative flows than solid fundamentals. Now, that optimism is starting to fade as data fails to back it up. Meanwhile, the potential U.S. tax reform proposal (Trump) and signs of renewed trade negotiations are helping shift sentiment back toward the U.S. dollar in the coming 10 days. --- 🇩🇪 German CPI – Neutral Print, But Bearish Implications Today's regional inflation figures across German states were mixed: States like Saxony and Baden-Württemberg showed slightly rising prices Others like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia showed declining YoY inflation Final national CPI due later today is unlikely to beat expectations meaningfully 🎯 Summary: A Neutral CPI Print No upside surprise → No support for EUR No major downside → No panic either --- 🧠 Why "Neutral" Data Can Still Be Bearish for EUR The market was hoping for a strong CPI to signal that ECB may pause rate cuts Neutral inflation = ECB may still lean dovish EUR rose on hope — but data offered no confirmation In financial markets, failed expectations often trigger stronger corrections than bad news. --- 🔍 Technical Overview: Price approaching strong supply zone near 1.0740 – 1.0760 RSI showing divergence on lower timeframes (H1) Structure on M15 suggests potential for lower highs Price stalling under resistance, with no bullish momentum follow-through --- 🎯 Trade Plan: Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.0730 – 1.0755 Stop Loss: Above 1.0775 Take Profit 1: 1.0630 Take Profit 2: 1.0600 Trigger: Break of M15 bearish structure or supply reaction --- 📌 Markets punish over-optimism more than fear. EUR/USD may correct lower as hopes of a strong CPI fade and macro flows tilt toward the USD.
Short
by mehrshad31
EUR/USD Key Fibonacci Resistance into Q3 OpenIt's been a strong first-half of the year for EUR/USD. As we came into 2025 it seemed a story of doom and gloom for the Euro, and calls for parity were practically everywhere. But the pair found support in January, held that support in February - and then broke out in a big way in March. As we wind down Q2 that breakout remains in-play and EUR/USD is pushing fresh three-year highs as the USD sets its own fresh three-year lows. Of interest is a simple Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2021-2022 major move in the pair. The 61.8% retracement is what caught the highs in 2023, and the 38.2% marker is what caught the low in April of last year, which held until that late-year breakdown. Along the way, the 50% mark at 1.0943 came into play as support and resistance multiple times. And as the breakdown took hold through the 2025 open, it was the 23.6% retracement that showed up to catch the lows, right around the 1.0200 handle. As prices has posed a strong recovery over the past four months and change, the levels as taken from that Fibonacci retracement have exhibited a number of inflection points. And now we have the 78.6% retracement coming into play to mark this week's highs. Notably - the pair is currently overbought on both the daily and weekly charts. And while it's difficult to justify strength in a USD that's been beaten down over the past four months, if looking for a turn - whether it's a simple pullback or perhaps the start of something larger, this resistance in EUR/USD remains a big spot to follow on the chart. Quarterly cuts can be interesting junctures to investigate for turn potential, especially considering the bearish reversal in EUR/USD around the Q4 open last year. - js
by FOREXcom
3
POTENTIAL EURUSD SHORT OPPORTUNITY...POSITION TRADEHello hello TradingView family! Hope you guys are doing amazingly well! Just wanted to come on here and make another post for a potential longer term opportunity I am seeing on the major currency pair EURUSD. So put your seat belts on and let's dive in!! OK so I'm going to keep this very very simple. Not because I don't want to go in depth but because my trading is very simple and I'm just going to give it to you straight. So here are the points 1. Price is @ monthly supply 2. Price has made new highs & sitting at a monthly fib extension 3. Monthly RSI overbought conditions 4. Weekly has bearish divergence forming 5. Weekly/Daily buyer is slowing down Make sense? If not..then I know you will figure it out. Watch for price to potentially poke a little higher but nice confluences for a fall in price. Appreciate you all!
Short
by JosePips
6
Eurusd M_Tf analysis Eurusd - MTF Analysis Test of support : @ 1.16642, a slight breakout occurred, which could be interpreted as a stop-loss hunt. Additionally, there was a trendline breakout. Expectation : A potential pullback to around 1.11873, which is a resistance level that coincides with a double top pattern. This could also serve as a retest of the previously broken trendline. Continuation : After the pullback and retest, the uptrend could potentially resume, with a target of approximately 1.218628.
Short
by Goodnessawe
EUR/USD BULL RAID: Quick Profit Heist Before the Drop!🏴‍☠️ EUR/USD "The Fiber" HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot Before the Trap! 🚨💰 🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Raiders! 🌟 Hola! Oi! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🤑 🔥 Thief Trading Strategy Activated! 🔥 Our bullish heist on EUR/USD is LIVE—time to swipe the loot before the bears set their trap! 🎯💸 📈 Entry (Vault is OPEN!): Buy Limit Orders preferred (15M/30M swing levels). Alert up! Don’t miss the breakout. 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Nearest Swing Low (1.15200) on 30M TF. Adjust for your risk & lot size—no reckless robberies! 🎯 Target (Profit Hideout): 1.16400 Scalpers: Stick to LONG only—trail your SL to lock gold! Swing Traders: Ride the wave or split the haul. ⚡ Why This Heist? Bullish momentum + weak bears = perfect robbery conditions. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But thieves thrive in chaos! 📢 Pro Tip: Avoid news spikes (volatility = jail time for unprepared traders). Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car. 💥 BOOST THIS PLAN! Hit 👍, share 🔄, and let’s drain this market together! More heists coming—stay tuned! 🚀🐱‍👤 (Disclaimer: Trade smart. We’re thieves, not gambleers.)
Long
by Thief_Trader
EUR/USD Biases (Long, Short, and Today’s View)EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones This will be a concise market analysis essay (around 600–700 words) suitable for a financial audience, such as forex traders or analysts. Let me begin: EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, has exhibited strong bullish momentum in recent sessions. As of June 26, 2025, the euro’s ascent against the dollar has brought it to a critical juncture, testing significant technical and psychological resistance levels. Traders are now weighing the potential for continued upside against growing signals of exhaustion and looming fundamental catalysts. Bullish Outlook: A Technically Supported Advance From a technical perspective, the bullish case for EUR/USD remains compelling. The pair is entrenched in a sustained uptrend, marked by successive breakouts above prior resistance levels and validated by daily and weekly closes above 1.1600. The current price action is converging on a crucial supply zone located between 1.1700 and 1.1900—an area historically known for triggering reversals but also pivotal in confirming trend continuation if broken convincingly. Technical indicators further bolster the bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while approaching overbought territory, is still supportive of higher prices. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a widening bullish histogram, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms trend strength. Near-term resistance lies between 1.1680 and 1.1730, with potential for an extension to 1.1800 should the pair breach this upper band. On the fundamental front, improved German Ifo business sentiment data has injected optimism into the eurozone outlook. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets have undercut the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further dampens dollar strength, creating tailwinds for EUR/USD. Bearish Considerations: Resistance and Reversal Risks Despite the encouraging trend, caution is warranted. The area between 1.1700 and 1.1900 represents a major weekly order block (OB) resistance—territory where several past rallies have lost steam. Oscillators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and RSI are showing signs of overextension, and the market is now vigilant for reversal patterns or signs of exhaustion. Fundamentally, while the recent Ifo data is encouraging, it remains below the key threshold of 100, reflecting lingering skepticism about the eurozone's full recovery. Moreover, upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly GDP figures and jobless claims, could act as potential catalysts for a dollar rebound. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials could also tilt sentiment, especially if it dampens expectations of rate cuts. If EUR/USD fails to hold above the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone, a corrective move toward 1.1530–1.1500 becomes plausible. Deeper pullbacks could extend toward 1.1470 and 1.1390, especially if risk sentiment reverses or economic data surprises in favor of the dollar. Today’s View: Bullish with a Note of Caution For today, June 26, the prevailing bias remains bullish, yet increasingly cautious. The pair is testing the lower end of the 1.1700 OB zone. A decisive break and hold above this level would likely unleash further upside toward 1.1730 and 1.1800. However, overbought conditions and proximity to a known resistance zone suggest that traders should remain alert to potential rejection. Intraday strategies favor buying on dips above 1.1600–1.1635, with stops placed just below 1.1600 and targets set at 1.1700–1.1730. Conversely, short positions should only be considered if there is a clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1730 area, with downside targets at 1.1530–1.1500 and stops above 1.1800. Conclusion The EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal inflection point. While the bullish trend is intact and supported by both technical and fundamental factors, the proximity to a major resistance zone introduces a layer of complexity. Traders must remain agile—ready to ride a breakout higher if confirmed, but equally prepared to pivot if the pair falters and signals a reversal. In markets like these, timing and confirmation are everything.
by HUGOF
EURUSD Trade IdeaEURUSD is Bullish, on the weekly and daily time frame. With RSI near the overbought region on the daily timeframe, there is a great probability that the trend perform a pull back to the support level @1.1590 zone. If the trend break the CHocH at the 4Hr timeframe (body candle not wick), then will go short till 1.1600 level. If the news this coming week are in favor of the USD, we might see more drawdown till the Order block OB4H. Let's be patient and watch the market carefully Good Luck!
Short
by AN_88