USDEUR trade ideas
EUR/USD 4H – Potential Quasimodo + Bearish Divergence SetupCurrently monitoring EUR/USD for a potential sell setup based on several strong technical confluences:
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🧠 Price Structure: Possible Quasimodo (QM) Pattern
• The chart is showing early signs of a Quasimodo pattern (QM) formation.
• Left Shoulder and Right Shoulder are developing, with a higher high (false break) between them.
• The recent Dominant Break above 1.14948 could be a liquidity grab — classic in QM setups.
• Price appears to be retesting the right shoulder area, signaling potential for a bearish reversal.
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📉 AO Indicator: Bearish Divergence as Confirmation
• Clear bearish divergence between price action and the Awesome Oscillator (AO):
• Price made a higher high, but AO printed a lower high.
• This signals weakening bullish momentum — a powerful confluence for a potential drop.
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⚠️ Confluences for Sell Setup:
1. ✅ Potential QM Pattern forming
2. ✅ Dominant Break followed by a potential right shoulder retest
3. ✅ Strong bearish divergence on AO
4. ✅ Price failing to break and close strongly above recent high (~1.1494)
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📍 Sell Trade Plan (if confirms):
• Entry Zone: Around 1.14400–1.14600 (right shoulder zone)
• Stop Loss: Above previous high (~1.15000)
• Take-Profit Options:
• TP1: Previous structure support around 1.13600
• TP2: Deeper support zone ~1.13000–1.12700
• TP3 (Aggressive): Full QM target near 1.12100 (as marked on the chart)
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⏳ Wait For:
• Bearish rejection or momentum candle on 4H or 1H
• AO to cross below 0 or accelerate red bars for extra confirmation
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💡 Conclusion:
EUR/USD is showing signs of a bearish reversal with a textbook QM setup supported by AO divergence. If the right shoulder holds and bearish momentum kicks in, this could offer a high-probability short opportunity.
Correction on EURUSDAfter Friday’s news, EURUSD reached 1,1368.
Make a note of the news candle and wait for a breakout.
If the retracement continues, the next key support level is 1,1317.
Important USD-related news is expected this Wednesday.
Watch for potential trend continuation setups and avoid rushing into new trades.
Despite some difficulties, EUR is still in an uptrendThe European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and said inflation was close to its medium-term target of 2%. Trump's tariff policies have loosened financial conditions, suggesting further easing is likely.
This dovish stance has put some pressure on the euro. Preliminary eurozone CPI data for May showed that inflationary pressures slowed more than expected, dragging the euro down. Germany’s manufacturing PMI for May was weaker than expected, suggesting further contraction in the manufacturing sector; France’s services PMI was better than expected, but still in contraction territory. Eurozone economic data has been mixed. European Central Bank President Lagarde said the monetary easing cycle was coming to an end, boosting market confidence in the euro over the medium term.
But caution will still be needed about the impact of Trump’s tariff policies on the global economy. While the ECB believes trade tensions have eased, the eurozone is not completely out of the woods. If future economic data remains weak, the euro could face downward pressure.
On the daily chart of OANDA:EURUSD after receiving support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level with horizontal support at 1.12038, the recovery momentum has created a significant increase. Specifically, the increase has tested the levels of 1.14744 and 1.14212, please note that in the previous publication about EUR/USD, these levels are also the nearest resistance at present.
However, in terms of the overall technical picture, EUR/USD is still in a bullish trend with a break above 1.14744 opening the door for a new bullish cycle with a short-term target of 1.15720.
Intraday, the bullish outlook for EUR/USD will be highlighted again by the following price points.
Support: 1.13788 – 1.12422
Resistance: 1.14212 – 1.14744
EURUSD Reversal Play Inside a Mean-Reverting Trend?EURUSD has already made its bullish push — but now it's flashing mixed signals. While the trend suggests continuation, forex's mean-reverting nature says otherwise. This low-probability idea targets a drop to the 4H range lows, then a rebound to retest the highs. Caution: we’re trading the chop here, not the trend.
EURUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURUSD Potential Long then ShortEUR/USD looking to trade around a key supply zone between 1.1450–1.1500. We’re watching for signs of bearish rejection to build a short bias from this area. No trade unless price confirms.
Main Setup:
If price retests upper zone (~1.1450–1.1500) and shows clear bearish price action, I’ll be looking to enter short.
Ideal signs: rejection wicks, SFPs, bearish engulfing, lower timeframe structure shift.
Break & Retest Option:
If price breaks below 1.1390, a clean bearish retest could offer a continuation short setup.
Structure break confirmation is key here.
This is a forecast, and trades will be dependent on live PA.
If we don’t get confirmation, we don’t force it. Patience is key.
DXY Outlook:
The Dollar Index looks bearish overall but is currently in a small corrective bounce. A short-term DXY pullback would support a push into EUR/USD’s supply zone — lining up nicely with our plan. If DXY flips back to bullish, that strengthens our short setup.
EUR/USD Long📍 Entry (Buy Limit):
1.1085
This is just above the 1.1000 psychological level but below previous minor structure at 1.1100.
Captures a shallow retest without risking being front-run by liquidity sweeps.
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
1.0910
Below consolidation zone and wicks around 1.10
Provides enough space beneath the major breakout level while staying tight for R:R
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1500 (Previous weekly resistance, already tested but not broken)
TP2: 1.2000 (Next clean monthly structure level)
TP3 (macro): 1.2400 (Upper range of long-term channel, highly reactive zone)
⚖️ Risk/Reward:
Risk: ~175 pips
Reward:
• TP1: ~415 pips
• TP2: ~915 pips
• TP3: ~1,315 pips
R:R = 2.4 to 1, 5.2 to 1, 7.5 to 1
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 6 June 2025
- EURUSD reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.1350
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the key resistance level 1.1475 (which has been reversing the price from the start of April) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star,
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1350.
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1471
1st Support: 1.1376
1st Resistance: 1.1573
Risk Warning:
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EURUSD: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
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EUR/USD – Bullish Smart Money SetupAfter a clean break of structure to the upside (BOS), EUR/USD is expected to retrace into the unmitigated demand zone before continuing higher.
Liquidity sits above the recent Weak High, making it a prime target for institutions.
📍 Buy Limit: 1.14100
🛑 SL: 1.13870
🎯 TP1: 1.14550
🎯 TP2: 1.14800+
Structure: Bullish ✅
OB Unmitigated: ✅
RSI Neutral-Bullish ✅
Liquidity Above: Yes ✅
"Wait for mitigation and confirmation before execution."
EUR/USD Bulls Fail to Press 1.1500 - Builds Possible Lower-HighFor EUR/USD it's what didn't happen this week...
Despite a seemingly open door for bulls to run a breakout, helped along by a Christine Lagarde that sounded less dovish than usual at Friday's rate cut, the pair put in a hard charge towards the 1.1500 handle but interestingly fell just about 5 pips short of the big figure. That's the same price that helped to bring a pullback back in April but in that instance, bulls were able to force a test above - and this time, it's as if sellers were waiting at the ready - and unwilling to miss the shot to get short. This can be read as bearish anticipation and while it's not an automatic indication of reversal, it can be an attractive first step towards that.
So far there remains bullish potential on the daily chart as the past week has produced both a higher-low and a higher-high. But from the four hour, deeper pullback potential appears as a breach of the 1.1400 level shows a shorter-term lower-low. And that, combined with the failure to test 1.1500, makes EUR/USD an attractive venue if looking for USD-strength. And if looking for USD-weakness it seems that there are more attractive options out there, such as GBP/USD which did set a fresh three-year-high this week even as EUR/USD held at a lower-high. - js
EURUSD Decline Potential Bearish StructureEUR/USD appears to have formed a rejection from a key resistance zone, suggesting a potential move to the downside. The rejection aligns with a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) acting as supply A liquidity sweep above recent highs Evidence of pending structure formation, indicating possible internal weakness.
If we see a confirmed close below the marked support zone, this would likely validate a bearish market structure break, paving the way for a clean continuation of the downtrend.
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Weekly technical analysis EURUSDIn the weekly Time-Fractal, price has gathered high liquidity above the weekly range after completing two price moves. If price retraces to the support zone marked in yellow on the chart, and a suitable candlestick setup appears along with increased liquidity, one could consider entering long-term buy trades targeting 1.24000. Please note that this is purely an analysis.
EURUSD - SellEntered this earlier on the 1min TF
Target will be the first Order Block which is 21:RR.
The reason I am targeting here is the 4H order flow is still bullish. So if we can hit the target I close 50% of the position and let the rest ride and manage accordingly to price.
Lets see how it plays out